₦airaland Forum

grandstar:
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It's still early days. The Naira seems to have stabilized at circa 760. The floating was a must: to tell the market that the totally unfair and corruption riddled multiple exchange rates under PMB were gone for good.

Nigerian economists have largely been mute because this is still the watch stage. Rewane said he believes the Naira would eventually settle at the 640-680 range.

As for those who are schooling overseas, they should buy at the market determined rate or they want the "special" exchange rates under Buhari? If they can't afford it, they should come back home.

In the 1980s when Babangida's SAP devalued the Naira from like $1-N1 to N4, my secondary was suddenly filled with lots of kids from expensive British secondary schools whose parents could no longer afford their fees.

It seems it's a pattern that whenever fx is sold at overvalued and preferential rates, the demand for foreign education balloons.

The societal and economic indices in the 80s when Babangida touted the Structural Adjustment Program as a financial tool to liberalise foreign currencies against the naira, are utterly and completely different from what's obtainable today.

Agriculture in the 80s was more productive and efficient than what it is today. Not only did we produce the bulk of what we ate, we made a handful of exports from farm productions.

Our population was not this bloated. Unemployment was not at a staggering double digit decimal. Corruption was a factor then, but not as much as it has become a livelihood today. I can go on and on.

Mark my words, 2023 is going to end with the dollar not falling below 720 naira. I am even struggling to imagine the intervention schemes that are going to pull the naira down to that 720 before the year ends.

There are very tough days ahead for the middle and low class citizens. Very tough days.

Buddha3:
Nigerians who have been tasked with brandishing the propaganda machinery of the APC and this current administration, know next to nothing.

In a bid to harmonise the dollar exchange rates at all levels, Tinubu decided to pull his first governmental experiment with the floating of the dollar against the naira. How he consciously sat down and reasoned that floating a currency whose availability you have no control of was the right move, just smirks of stupendous economic buffoonery.

Now the demand for that currency is through the roof, while your apex bank cannot even meet up this demand for imports and exports businessmen. We're not even talking about Nigerians schooling in the diaspora yet and what they need to fund their tuitions. And as it stands, any right thinking person will realise that this very policy is going to take a tumble in the days ahead. But in the heads of APC supporters, their god pulled a masterstroke.

The hunger is just beginning!

Bro what are you saying? Are you arguing for Buhari’s economic illiterate policy of dual Naira rate?

Unifying the currency rate is just good policy. It might just take some time for that to be clear but pretty much all competent economists agree that it is necessary.

You’re displaying the same trait you’re accusing Tinubu’s supporters of. This is not the policy to attack Tinubu on. This one is on his failed predecessor

BreconHills:
I did not expect you to make any sense of what I wrote. I knew you couldn't understand it. Nothing you've written before indicates that you understand economic policy. I merely hung a commentary on a typically shallow comment. Sorry, it had to be you. It could have been anyone out of a dozen comments here. If you want to take me up on the points I raised I will give you considered answers but if you still want to wade in muddy waters - I am sorry I am not playing that game. Not today.

But why will i take you up on the workability of "guesstimates" which you already confessed to not being sure if they are going to happen or not?

I'm asking the initial question in a real, qualitative sense not as an academic exercise. If you want to share your ideas on how to run an economy, you can contact Tinubu's Special Adviser on Policy.

The smart thing to do if you were any, will be to consult the manifesto of candidate Tinubu to see if your ideas follow the thoughts behind the manifesto at least before you start wasting time and space debating.

I really don't think you understand anything at all.

wegevv:
Bro what are you saying? Are you arguing for Buhari’s economic illiterate policy of dual Naira rate?

Unifying the currency rate is just good policy. It might just take some time for that to be clear but pretty much all competent economists agree that it is necessary.

You’re displaying the same trait you’re accusing Tinubu’s supporters of. This is not the policy to attack Tinubu on. This one is on his failed predecessor

Baba, I am not in anyway making a case for the failure that is Buhari. Heaven knows I detested that man from the very day he assumed office as President cause going by his history in governance, I already knew what to expect and was quite irritated when Nigerians put the messiah tag on him.

My point from day one of Tinubu's governance is, he was too hasty to make two significant policies at the same time, without stopping to consider the cascading ripple effects that those policies were going to have on the economy in the short and middle term.

Subsidy had to go. He had until the end of June to put in place proper cushions to mitigate the harm it was going to leave on our economy and general living standards. But he opted to swiftly jump on the microphone with the pronouncement and we both know where we are right now.

The incurable difference in dollar value between the black markets and official FX window is an overspill of corruption at the very top echelons. 95% of Bureau De Change operators are answerable to top politicians. These politicians use their influence to mop up foreign currencies from banks at official rates, create the artifical scarcity of these currencies and in turn, use same currencies to keep the black markets afloat so they can reap the inordinate profits. Tinubu himself has a stockpile of dollars possibly beyond the total amount of dollars that First bank and Zenith bank put together, have in their vaults.

So they wake up and float the currencies, deciding to allow market forces to determine the value while they all sit on heaps of these currencies in their homes and storages, and we have to be the ones to suffer the negative effects of the artifical scarcity they have created? If you have the intents to fix something, fix it from the source.

Nigerians are supposed to suffer the inconveniences that these policies bring, with the promise that we'll have it better in the long term, right? What if the masses don't survive to that long term? What is even the guarantee that these things will normalise in the long term?

Come on bro! This is Nigeria, for crying out loud! We've seen these things replaying over and over. Ya'radua spent just 2years as President but he initiated such effective reforms that trickled down to the common man without anybody having to first die of hunger. If Tinubu really wanted to fix the dual price valuation on the dollar, it won't cost anything to eliminate the BDC markets. But no, he'll rather toe the path that burdens ordinary Nigerians the more, so he and his cronies can always have dollars to buy political seats and interests.

Buddha3:
The societal and economic indices in the 80s when Babangida touted the Structural Adjustment Program as a financial tool to liberalise foreign currencies against the naira, are utterly and completely different from what's obtainable today.

The economic indices then were terrible. I was in secondary school. I was the last form 5 set. I did not experience the 6-3-3-4 system.

From 1981-1986, the economy was in a recession. Manufacturing output collapsed. Companies were closing right, left and centre. Capacity utilisation fell well below 50%.

Buddha3:
Agriculture in the 80s was more productive and efficient than what it is today. Not only did we produce the bulk of what we ate, we made a handful of exports from farm productions.

Wrong, By the 1970s, agricultural production started to decline and food importation increased. This was due to the strength of the Naira. It was cheaper to import food than to produce it locally. This was due to the high price of crude oil. Petrodollars had suddenly made the country flush with dollars. The Naira was simply too strong. Nigeria was suffering from its own version of the Dutch Disease.

The SAP devaluation suddenly brought about an upsurge in the export of agricultural products, especially cocoa.

Buddha3:
Our population was not this bloated. Unemployment was not at a staggering double digit decimal. Corruption was a factor then, but not as much as it has become a livelihood today. I can go on and on.

Yes, our population wasn't this high but a decorated donkey is still a donkey. Unemployment was high, it must have definitely been in double digits due to mass factory closure and a collapse in manufacturing capacity.

Pre-Babangida, corruption though high, was still sane. Babangida made fantastical corruption not only normal, but made it a honourable reason for the attainment of political office.

Buddha3:
Mark my words, 2023 is going to end with the dollar not falling below 720 naira. I am even struggling to imagine the intervention schemes that are going to pull the naira down to that 720 before the year ends.

There are very tough days ahead for the middle and low class citizens. Very tough days.

You might be right. I foresee about 2-3 years of adjustment. A new SAP has begun. Economic troubles are not overturned overnight. It takes time. An economist here said that the fuel subsidy removal will drag down growth initially and that's partly what we are seeing.

See the the subsidy removal as the equivalent of a huge tax increase. It would definitely slow things down. There are steps government can take to speed up growth such as slashing corporate taxes to 15%. This will fuel investment by foreign investors and even locally, propping up growth.

LegendHero:
He learnt the drug business from Obi of Onitsha. The warrant Chief you people call Igwe.

I heard Obi will soon sell his palace to Tinubu so he can use it for his new drug hub.

That’s why thousands of Anambra youth are languishing in prisons abroad for drug trafficking. Tinubu carefully orchestrated that.

You can bleat even harder I don't even know you are bleating. However, Tinubu but is a drug Lord who forfeited his fortune to save his head NOT Obi. For your information your low self esteemed traditional rulers can't even measure in the affairs of real men.

MrSly:
You can bleat even harder I don't even know you are bleating. However, Tinubu but is a drug Lord who forfeited his fortune to save his head NOT Obi. For your information your low self esteemed traditional rulers can't even measure in the affairs of real men.

Lol if you go outside the country, no one will even know who the bleep is Obi of Onitsha when mentioning true royalty. Mention Ooni of Ife anywhere and see how the they stan true Royalty.


The richest king in Nigeria is a Yoruba king from Ondo. He can buy Obi of Onitsha palace and convert it to a parking garage.

Lastly, Tinubu can buy Obi of Onistha and his whole generation and still have more surplus. That’s how useless that Igwe is.

LegendHero:
Stop crying. The government is just 1 month and few weeks.

To build a country, it doesn’t take only 2 month. When the FG start rolling out the necessary program that’ll serve as palliative to the people, things will start to change.

All this indices you are seeing are what contributes to stability in the long run. Relax and stop being an angry bird over every positive Nigeria news.

What is tinubu building?I thought you guys said buhari has built everything

Kukutenla:
What is positive news over portfolio investments rising to 222m from 495m in 2019 even under Baba Sala bubu?
Seems you don't know what portfolio investments are

U be confirmed mumu. Not from 495m but from 56m. Even this increment wasn't under Tinubu, it was still under Buhari because 1st quarter was January-March 2023. First quarter under Tinubu will be next year or we wait till the figure for 3rd quarter of 2023 will be released

maasoap:
U be confirmed mumu. Not from 495m but from 56m. Even this increment wasn't under Tinubu, it was still under Buhari because 1st quarter was January-March 2023. First quarter under Tinubu will be next year or we wait till the figure for 3rd quarter of 2023 will be released

A lot of you ignoramus just jump into people's conversations with your lack of ability to read and comprehend just to write absolute nonsense and expose your low mental capacity.
For your info you nitwit, the article highlighted that FPI was 495 in 2019, dropped to 56 in 2022 and rose to 222 in Q1 2023.
But your stupid self, obviously due to your asinine brain failed to see the comparison I'm making.
You should be ashamed of your daft self

Kukutenla:
But why will i take you up on the workability of "guesstimates" which you already confessed to not being sure if they are going to happen or not?

I'm asking the initial question in a real, qualitative sense not as an academic exercise. If you want to share your ideas on how to run an economy, you can contact Tinubu's Special Adviser on Policy.

The smart thing to do if you were any, will be to consult the manifesto of candidate Tinubu to see if your ideas follow the thoughts behind the manifesto at least before you start wasting time and space debating.

I really don't think you understand anything at all.

Of course, I don't understand anything. Yet yesterday I said Nigeria's priority is fundraising not bringing down the cost of tomatoes. I specifically mentioned that Government would sell down its assets and I mentioned NNPC (did you read that far?) and here today is the news that the NNPC will launch its IPO this year - probably by August 2023

Thank God I don't know anything. If I keep making accurate calls like this - I pray I continue not knowing anything.

BreconHills:
Of course, I don't understand anything. Yet yesterday I said Nigeria's priority is fundraising not bringing down the cost of tomatoes. I specifically mentioned that Government would sell down its assets and I mentioned NNPC (did you read that far?) and here today is the news that the NNPC will launch its IPO this year - probably by August 2023

Thank God I don't know anything. If I keep making accurate calls like this - I pray I continue not knowing anything.

Aargh. Guy, do you know what IPO means? NNPC was tentatively privatised in 2021. So floating IPO is not to raise money for govt who is more or less like a shareholder but rather to fund its own operations like every other publicly quoted private enterprise.
That said, you're actually correct that this govt is looking to sell some JV assets with Nnpc to raise funds but the question I asked is not about raising funds. They are not the first to. Buhari did as well. The whole thing is Atiku's idea for which he was massively vilified by ignorant APC supporters like yourself in 2019. Funny enough, check Tinubu's manifesto and you won't see anything like sale of assets there.
That said, my question (what next?) is not about raising funds. It's about the plan to bring the economy back from the brinks into one that works for all. Like the Marshall plan of the 1940s, or the bailout plans of 2009, or the Reconstruction plan of the Chinese in the 80s, or Japanese TQM of the 70s. We need to have a plan and know the plan so we can measure what's been done against what was promised.
If you APC supporters don't know what the plan is that's really a terrible thing.

LegendHero:
Lol if you go outside the country, no one will even know who the bleep is Obi of Onitsha when mentioning true royalty. Mention Ooni of Ife anywhere and see how the they stan true Royalty.


The richest king in Nigeria is a Yoruba king from Ondo. He can buy Obi of Onitsha palace and convert it to a parking garage.

Lastly, Tinubu can buy Obi of Onistha and his whole generation and still have more surplus. That’s how useless that Igwe is.

Ajegunle or Ogun isn't outside the country.

Kukutenla:
Aargh. Guy, do you know what IPO means? NNPC was tentatively privatised in 2021. So floating IPO is not to raise money for govt who is more or less like a shareholder but rather to fund its own operations like every other publicly quoted private enterprise.
That said, you're actually correct that this govt is looking to sell some JV assets with Nnpc to raise funds but the question I asked is not about raising funds. They are not the first to. Buhari did as well. The whole thing is Atiku's idea for which he was massively vilified by ignorant APC supporters like yourself in 2019. Funny enough, check Tinubu's manifesto and you won't see anything like sale of assets there.
That said, my question (what next?) is not about raising funds. It's about the plan to bring the economy back from the brinks into one that works for all. Like the Marshall plan of the 1940s, or the bailout plans of 2009, or the Reconstruction plan of the Chinese in the 80s, or Japanese TQM of the 70s. We need to have a plan and know the plan so we can measure what's been done against what was promised.
If you APC supporters don't know what the plan is that's really a terrible thing.

I disagree with you that the fgn is not raising money through the ipo. Even if it doesn't sell a single share it has valued its shareholding which it can use as credit to issue a foreign exchange denominsted bond without recourse to reserves. Right now its share ownership in nnpc is a black box with no value attached.

Regarding plans. The first thing you do when you have a multiple gunshot victim who is bleeding out is to stop the bleeding. That has been done with the removal ofbsubsidy and arbitrage in the fx market. Next step is improve short term fx receipts - that's ongoing with the improvement in crude production numbers. Growth is a long game snd I expect that ministers especially finance will come to the party with a slew of announcements. That's how it should be.

I have been.pleasantly surprised and I am looking forward to seeing the ministers list this week.

Less than 2 months is too short a time to be having this conversation.

BreconHills:
I disagree with you that the fgn is not raising money through the ipo. Even if it doesn't sell a single share it has valued its shareholding which it can use as credit to issue a foreign exchange denominsted bond without recourse to reserves. Right now its share ownership in nnpc is a black box with no value attached.

Regarding plans. The first thing you do when you have a multiple gunshot victim who is bleeding out is to stop the bleeding. That has been done with the removal ofbsubsidy and arbitrage in the fx market. Next step is improve short term fx receipts - that's ongoing with the improvement in crude production numbers. Growth is a long game snd I expect that ministers especially finance will come to the party with a slew of announcements. That's how it should be.

I have been.pleasantly surprised and I am looking forward to seeing the ministers list this week.

Less than 2 months is too short a time to be having this conversation.

It's obvious you love conjectures and alternate reality. We are talking about what obtains and you're bringing 'FG can'. Has FG told you they plan to go with your conjectures?
Besides, I don't know how you think collaterizing NNPC shares to float foreign bonds make sense when oil price is known to be on the rise and is even volatile. The FG already has a plan to sell some JV assets so your proposal is a null point just as it's not even sensible among better ideas.

Your second paragraph could not detail a plan, just another set of conjectures with a hope hinged on announcement of a minister.
Two months is too long to be asking for the plan. The plan should have been available since the first week and what we should be doing is discussing the benefits and challenges with implementation of the plan.
Besides, this govt promised to name ministers within the first month. We're deep into the second month and there's no announcement. That's not a good sign of a serious govt.

Kukutenla:
It's obvious you love conjectures and alternate reality. We are talking about what obtains and you're bringing 'FG can'. Has FG told you they plan to go with your conjectures?
Besides, I don't know how you think collaterizing NNPC shares to float foreign bonds make sense when oil price is known to be on the rise and is even volatile. The FG already has a plan to sell some JV assets so your proposal is a null point just as it's not even sensible among better ideas.

Your second paragraph could not detail a plan, just another set of conjectures with a hope hinged on announcement of a minister.
Two months is too long to be asking for the plan. The plan should have been available since the first week and what we should be doing is discussing the benefits and challenges with implementation of the plan.
Besides, this govt promised to name ministers within the first month. We're deep into the second month and there's no announcement. That's not a good sign of a serious govt.

You ignore what you don't understand and I don't have time right now. Maybe I will come round to your comment later

1. No comment on first actions to take when economy is hemorrhaging and need triage? No comment on whether removal of subsidy and fx duality is a good idea?

2. Attribution of sell down of JV interests to previous government?

3. Misunderstanding the impact of a successful euro bond issue secured on monetized assets instead of oil in the ground. Failure to understand credit ratings and its impact on FDI and portfolio investors?

Don't worry when the train and track systems are concessioned in a few weeks time as well as the train stations you will say it was the same previous government that was clueless or maybe it was GEJ?


Don't worry, a week after ministers have been announced you will know that these people started work before the election ended.

It's only the person who has never been in a kitchen that complains about the speed at which the meal comes to the table.

BreconHills:
You ignore what you don't understand and I don't have time right now. Maybe I will come round to your comment later

1. No comment on first actions to take when economy is hemorrhaging and need triage? No comment on whether removal of subsidy and fx duality is a good idea?

2. Attribution of sell down of JV interests to previous government?

3. Misunderstanding the impact of a successful euro bond issue secured on monetized assets instead of oil in the ground. Failure to understand credit ratings and its impact on FDI and portfolio investors?

Don't worry when the train and track systems are concessioned in a few weeks time as well as the train stations you will say it was the same previous government that was clueless or maybe it was GEJ?


Don't worry, a week after ministers have been announced you will know that these people started work before the election ended.

It's only the person who has never been in a kitchen that complains about the speed at which the meal comes to the table.

Brecon, you don't seem to understand the kernel of my question. I'm not asking for what the govt should do but what they are looking to do to rescue the country from the quagmire that's entirely of their making. What you're offering since are your ideas and not the thoughts of those at the helm whose decisions will determine if we will get out of this and when?
If you want to engage me on the merits of your ideas, it's another thing but that's not what I'm looking for.
1. Removing subsidy is a very bad idea. I've never been for it. It's a Western capitalism idea borne out of their greed to exploit foreign markets. While they tell you subsidies are bad for you, they won't tell you US subsidises it's oil and gas sector massively, is the highest debtor in the world and has the largest social safety program in the world, yet no one has told US to stop different subsidies in different sectors.
What you have presently is a devaluation of naira and not floating of the naira. Again, we are asking Nigerians to pay for the criminality of those who engaged in forex round- tripping during the Buhari years instead of fishing them out and making them pay for their atrocities. All economists agree that naira is massively undervalued presently.
2. Are you saying you're unaware that Buhari govt has had it in plan to sell JV assets since after 2019 elections? What delayed it was covid? If you insist, I'll share links of news reports of such plans.
3. It makes no sense to monetize shares in NNPC especially now that crude price is on an upwards trend. Nigeria is not a broke as you people make it sound that we need to mortgage prime assets for bonds. That will eventually weaken the corporate structure of NNPC anyway.

Train and tracks are about to be concessioned? To who? And what are the modalities? I'm interested in knowing more of this.

Kukutenla:
A lot of you ignoramus just jump into people's conversations with your lack of ability to read and comprehend just to write absolute nonsense and expose your low mental capacity.
For your info you nitwit, the article highlighted that FPI was 495 in 2019, dropped to 56 in 2022 and rose to 222 in Q1 2023.
But your stupid self, obviously due to your asinine brain failed to see the comparison I'm making.
You should be ashamed of your daft self

You are very dull, you need to go and ask for the refund of your school fees from primary to higher institution. Ode

maasoap:
You are very dull, you need to go and ask for the refund of your school fees from primary to higher institution. Ode

Hmm. Candid advice from the guy who can't understand simple English.
Muntula. Senior brother to ewu