With the way evidences keep propping up against Tinubu almost on a daily basis, it is becoming increasingly likely that the most favourable judgment Tinubu might get from the Tribunal is a rerun that he would participate in.

Ordinarily, and as it might happen, with the volume of evidence against Tinubu, ranging from forgery to perjury to double nomination to invalid nomination to fine from drug, Tinubu should be disqualified from even participating in a rerun (that’s if the court is not returning a new winner). But this is Nigeria where nothing is ever as it should be.

So, let’s assume the Tribunal orders a rerun and allows Tinubu to participate in it, what are his chances?

I can categorically say that Tinubu will lose a rerun election scandalously, and here are my reasons:

1) Uncoordinated and Brutish Subsidy Removal

One of the the harshest things that Tinubu did to Nigerians was the manner he removed fuel subsidy. It has thrown every Nigerian into pauperism and made even his most ardent supporters say “had I known”.

I know Tinubu supporters like to say he had no choice with subsidy removal because Buhari government already decided to end subsidy, but that’s a lie. First, the Buhari government made provision for payment of fuel subsidy till the end of June, Tinubu removed it on the 29th of May. Again, being the president, he had powers to even extend the subsidy payment till Christmas and make adequate provisions for palliatives towards the removal of subsidy by January of 2024. But he chose to go with impulse rather than calculated approach.

So, the effect of subsidy removal is one of the greatest things that will work against Tinubu if a rerun is ordered. How do you convince the hungry peasant to vote Tinubu again when s/he knows the hardship Tinubu has caused him or her within a short period?

Fun Fact: Did you know removal of fuel subsidy was not part of Tinubu’s speech at inauguration?

2) We Have Seen His Almighty Team

One of Tinubu’s campaign points then was that he has eyes for talent and will assemble the best brains to solve Nigeria’s problems like he did in Lagos. It was a point that appealed to a lot of people. But having been inaugurated and he chose his team, Nigerians have been left scratching their heads and asking, “are these the best brains?”

Tinubu appointed a lawyer as Aviation Minister.

Appointed two failed governors as Ministers of Defence.

Appointed Abacha’s bagman as Minister of Budget and National Planning.

Installed a thief, captured taking bribe on camera, as the chairman of his party. Just to mention a few.

What’s inspiring about this team that Tinubu will campaign with again? So, the stale line of “he will assemble the best brains” will no longer work because we have seen what he gathered.

3) No More Senators and House of Reps Candidates.

One concept that featured prominently during the electioneering campaigns was “structure”. And by structure they referred to the fact that they had candidates for every post in all the states. So, in the last election, you had Senatorial and House of Rep candidates who vigorously campaigned for APC, not because of their love or believe in Tinubu but because their own destiny was tied to the party’s success. So, a lot of these candidates who were popular in their constituencies garnered votes for APC in their regions which ultimately rubbed off on Tinubu as well. The National Assembly candidates were so helpful to the party that even those who lost, still garnered considerable votes in their name and for the party which helped add to the numbers.

Another candidate that enjoyed a similar privilege is Atiku. Because PDP with its spread fielded candidates for all elective positions in the election and the performance of these candidates helped shore up the numbers garnered by the party.

Only Peter Obi didn’t have this privilege. If anything, he was actually the reason a lot of National Assembly candidates on the Labour Party platform won their election, and not the other way round.

Now, if a rerun is ordered, the National Assembly candidates will no longer be there. The implication is that voters will approach polling units with only the names of the presidential candidates in mind. Can the voters in the core north choose Tinubu over Atiku and Kwankwaso considering other exigencies? I think not.

4) INEC Cannot Have “Technical Glitches” Twice

One of the most controversial things that happened in the last election was the shutting down of the INEC’s Electronic Result Viewing Portal (IREV) in the name of “technical glitches” which many believe was done to enable INEC manipulate the outcome of the election to favour a particular candidate.

Till date, almost 6 months after the election, INEC has not been able to explain the nature of the glitch they encountered. Not even in court were they able to demonstrate it.

But if a rerun is ordered, I refuse to even imagine the possibility of INEC telling Nigerians that they had another “technical glitches” again. If anything, if a rerun is ordered, Mahmoud Yakubu may have to give way for someone that Nigerians can trust to supervise the election. People in the level of Emir Sanusi or Bishop Kukah.

Now, if IREV works, Nigerians would be able to monitor the votes as they come in IN REAL TIME, which will eliminate or at least drastically reduce the chances of the votes being manipulated anymore. Unlike what we had in the previous election where we were seeing tipexed result sheets everywhere with figures manipulated and altered to assign numbers to candidates who didn’t score them.

5) Disgruntled APC Members

A lot of APC members that worked for Tinubu with a lot of vigour in the last election will no longer be doing that again having seen themselves sidelined after Tinubu emerged ‘victorious’.

I do not see people like Tanko Almakura, Omisore, Omo-Agege, Abdullahi Adamu, El-Rufai, Bayo Onanuga, and other numerous people who are already sheathing in pains of neglect, investing the same kind of vigour they invested in the first election. And what’s worst? Tinubu has not gained any new supporters that can replace these people in their respective states. Well, maybe except Asari Dokubo.

6) Niger Crisis
The way Tinubu has handled the Niger crisis has left a lot northerners apprehensive of Tinubu’s intentions for the north. Because if the senate had not pulled the plug on Tinubu’s request for military action in Niger, and had northern stakeholders not gotten involved in finding a diplomatic solution to the problem, coupled with the pushback of a lot of well-meaning Nigerians, Tinubu would have invaded Niger Republic and thrown the northern states that border Niger into humanitarian crisis. With this, if a rerun is ordered, a lot of northern stakeholders will be very skeptical in confidently campaigning for Tinubu again.

7) Some Former APC States Are Now In The Hands of Other Parties

During the last election, states like Kano, Zamfara and Plateau States were APC states. Tinubu won in Zamfara with the help of Mattawale’s unflinching support. He got about 300k votes (whether real or cooked) in Plateau due to Simon Lalong’s influence who was his campaign DG and sitting governor. Then he got over 700k votes in Kano due to Ganduje’s influence, whether real or cooked. But with Plateau and Zamfara now in the hands of PDP, Tinubu will obviously not do close to 20% of the numbers he did in those states in the last election. Similarly in Kano, except Kwankwaso decides to support him in a rerun, Tinubu is not likely going to do above 300k votes in Kano. And I say 300k votes because I don’t want to rule out the little influence that Ganduje still holds.

Bonus: Comment On Kwankwaso
It is necessary I mention Kwankwaso because he seems to have openly started this on-and-off relationship with Tinubu that we don’t know what it is yet. A lot of us expected him to make it into Tinubu’s cabinet but he didn’t, for whatever reason.

Now, the comment on him became necessary because in the event of a rerun, some alignments and realignments are likely to happen. And in these suspected likely alignments, Kwankwaso is the only one most likely to align with Tinubu. But can he?

Can Kwankwaso, who prides himself as the “Manduga”, the patron of the masses, look at the faces of the suffering northern masses and tell them to choose Tinubu despite the hardships he has caused them in the past few months?

Can he go against the general opinion of northern stakeholders should they decide not to support Tinubu due to so many factors including his shady existence and his activities in Niger? Can he?

Even if he decides to, how much influence can he bring? In the last election, he only won Kano. Would that be enough to help Tinubu in a rerun?

Conclusion

So, you see why Tinubu might struggle to even make third position should rerun be ordered? And as always, these are realistic points informed by empirical considerations and devoid of any emotions or bias. But feel free to to point out whatever you think is not as it was stated.

Penguin is a bird of reason!

Look at the long epistle you're typing early Monday morning? You're a big disappointment to your generation.

Think about your life!

If , a conditional statement

Unfortunately, there won be re-slow not to talk of rerun

Penguin, a bird of chirping wailing

Penguin2:
With the way evidences keep propping up against Tinubu almost on a daily basis, it is becoming increasingly likely that the most favourable judgment Tinubu might get from the Tribunal is a rerun that he would participate in.

Ordinarily, and as it might happen, with the volume of evidence against Tinubu, ranging from forgery to perjury to double nomination to invalid nomination to fine from drug, Tinubu should be disqualified from even participating in a rerun (that’s if the court is not returning a new winner). But this is Nigeria where nothing is ever as it should be.

So, let’s assume the Tribunal orders a rerun and allows Tinubu to participate in it, what are his chances?

I can categorically say that Tinubu will lose a rerun election scandalously, and here are my reasons:

1) Uncoordinated and Brutish Subsidy Removal

One of the the harshest things that Tinubu did to Nigerians was the manner he removed fuel subsidy. It has thrown every Nigerian into pauperism and made even his most ardent supporters say “had I known”.

I know Tinubu supporters like to say he had no choice with subsidy removal because Buhari government already decided to end subsidy, but that’s a lie. First, the Buhari government made provision for payment of fuel subsidy till the end of June, Tinubu removed it on the 29th of May. Again, being the president, he had powers to even extend the subsidy payment till Christmas and make adequate provisions for palliatives towards the removal of subsidy by January of 2024. But he chose to go with impulse rather than calculated approach.

So, the effect of subsidy removal is one of the greatest things that will work against Tinubu if a rerun is ordered. How do you convince the hungry peasant to vote Tinubu again when s/he knows the hardship Tinubu has caused him or her within a short period?

Fun Fact: Did you know removal of fuel subsidy was not part of Tinubu’s speech at inauguration?

2) We Have Seen His Almighty Team

One of Tinubu’s campaign points then was that he has eyes for talent and will assemble the best brains to solve Nigeria’s problems like he did in Lagos. It was a point that appealed to a lot of people. But having been inaugurated and he chose his team, Nigerians have been left scratching their heads and asking, “are these the best brains?”

Tinubu appointed a lawyer as Aviation Minister.

Appointed two failed governors as Ministers of Defence.

Appointed Abacha’s bagman as Minister of Budget and National Planning.

Installed a thief, captured taking bribe on camera, as the chairman of his party. Just to mention a few.

What’s inspiring about this team that Tinubu will campaign with again? So, the stale line of “he will assemble the best brains” will no longer work because we have seen what he gathered.

3) No More Senators and House of Reps Candidates.

One concept that featured prominently during the electioneering campaigns was “structure”. And by structure they referred to the fact that they had candidates for every post in all the states. So, in the last election, you had Senatorial and House of Rep candidates who vigorously campaigned for APC, not because of their love or believe in Tinubu but because their own destiny was tied to the party’s success. So, a lot of these candidates who were popular in their constituencies garnered votes for APC in their regions which ultimately rubbed off on Tinubu as well. The National Assembly candidates were so helpful to the party that even those who lost, still garnered considerable votes in their name and for the party which helped add to the numbers.

Another candidate that enjoyed a similar privilege is Atiku. Because PDP with its spread fielded candidates for all elective positions in the election and the performance of these candidates helped shore up the numbers garnered by the party.

Only Peter Obi didn’t have this privilege. If anything, he was actually the reason a lot of National Assembly candidates on the Labour Party platform won their election, and not the other way round.

Now, if a rerun is ordered, the National Assembly candidates will no longer be there. The implication is that voters will approach polling units with only the names of the presidential candidates in mind. Can the voters in the core north choose Tinubu over Atiku and Kwankwaso considering other exigencies? I think not.

4) INEC Cannot Have “Technical Glitches” Twice

One of the most controversial things that happened in the last election was the shutting down of the INEC’s Electronic Result Viewing Portal (IREV) in the name of “technical glitches” which many believe was done to enable INEC manipulate the outcome of the election to favour a particular candidate.

Till date, almost 6 months after the election, INEC has not been able to explain the nature of the glitch they encountered. Not even in court were they able to demonstrate it.

But if a rerun is ordered, I refuse to even imagine the possibility of INEC telling Nigerians that they had another “technical glitches” again. If anything, if a rerun is ordered, Mahmoud Yakubu may have to give way for someone that Nigerians can trust to supervise the election. People in the level of Emir Sanusi or Bishop Kukah.

Now, if IREV works, Nigerians would be able to monitor the votes as they come in IN REAL TIME, which will eliminate or at least drastically reduce the chances of the votes being manipulated anymore. Unlike what we had in the previous election where we were seeing tipexed result sheets everywhere with figures manipulated and altered to assign numbers to candidates who didn’t score them.

5) Disgruntled APC Members

A lot of APC members that worked for Tinubu with a lot of vigour in the last election will no longer be doing that again having seen themselves sidelined after Tinubu emerged ‘victorious’.

I do not see people like Tanko Almakura, Omisore, Omo-Agege, Abdullahi Adamu, El-Rufai, Bayo Onanuga, and other numerous people who are already sheathing in pains of neglect, investing the same kind of vigour they invested in the first election. And what’s worst? Tinubu has not gained any new supporters that can replace these people in their respective states. Well, maybe except Asari Dokubo.

6) Niger Crisis
The way Tinubu has handled the Niger crisis has left a lot northerners apprehensive of Tinubu’s intentions for the north. Because if the senate had not pulled the plug on Tinubu’s request for military action in Niger, and had northern stakeholders not gotten involved in finding a diplomatic solution to the problem, coupled with the pushback of a lot of well-meaning Nigerians, Tinubu would have invaded Niger Republic and thrown the northern states that border Niger into humanitarian crisis. With this, if a rerun is ordered, a lot of northern stakeholders will be very skeptical in confidently campaigning for Tinubu again.

7) Some Former APC States Are Now In The Hands of Other Parties

During the last election, states like Kano, Zamfara and Plateau States were APC states. Tinubu won in Zamfara with the help of Mattawale’s unflinching support. He got about 300k votes (whether real or cooked) in Plateau due to Simon Lalong’s influence who was his campaign DG and sitting governor. Then he got over 700k votes in Kano due to Ganduje’s influence, whether real or cooked. But with Plateau and Zamfara now in the hands of PDP, Tinubu will obviously not do close to 20% of the numbers he did in those states in the last election. Similarly in Kano, except Kwankwaso decides to support him in a rerun, Tinubu is not likely going to do above 300k votes in Kano. And I say 300k votes because I don’t want to rule out the little influence that Ganduje still holds.

Bonus: Comment On Kwankwaso
It is necessary I mention Kwankwaso because he seems to have openly started this on-and-off relationship with Tinubu that we don’t know what it is yet. A lot of us expected him to make it into Tinubu’s cabinet but he didn’t, for whatever reason.

Now, the comment on him became necessary because in the event of a rerun, some alignments and realignments are likely to happen. And in these suspected likely alignments, Kwankwaso is the only one most likely to align with Tinubu. But can he?

Can Kwankwaso, who prides himself as the “Manduga”, the patron of the masses, look at the faces of the suffering northern masses and tell them to choose Tinubu despite the hardships he has caused them in the past few months?

Can he go against the general opinion of northern stakeholders should they decide not to support Tinubu due to so many factors including his shady existence and his activities in Niger? Can he?

Even if he decides to, how much influence can he bring? In the last election, he only won Kano. Would that be enough to help Tinubu in a rerun?

Conclusion

So, you see why Tinubu might struggle to even make third position should rerun be ordered? And as always, these are realistic points informed by empirical data and devoid of any emotion or bias. But feel free to to point out whatever you think is not as I stated it.

Penguin is a bird of reason!

lol which empirical data? They told you that the 8.7 Million of us that votes him into power no longer have our voters card or what?

No sensble leader will let INEC and Judiciary operate independently. Manipulations abound right from d world go, man is highly manipulative. It is even a worst case when highly power drunk people lead, they employ all crook machinations.

Atiku will win if there is a rerun

Penguin2 zukwanike

helinues:
If , a conditional statement

Unfortunately, there won be re-slow not to talk of rerun

Penguin, a bird of chirping wailing

“If”, meaning it could happen or may not.

Now what if it happens?

The topic should be "Why Tinubu Will Lose Scandalously AGAIN If A Rerun Is Ordered".

Reasonable Politicians are already Preparing for 2027

Penguin2:

“If”, meaning it could happen or may not.

Now what if it happens?

Why using if again? Are you afraid of making unconditional statements without if

Say it authoritatively

Penguin2:
With the way evidences keep propping up against Tinubu almost on a daily basis, it is becoming increasingly likely that the most favourable judgment Tinubu might get from the Tribunal is a rerun that he would participate in.

Ordinarily, and as it might happen, with the volume of evidence against Tinubu, ranging from forgery to perjury to double nomination to invalid nomination to fine from drug, Tinubu should be disqualified from even participating in a rerun (that’s if the court is not returning a new winner). But this is Nigeria where nothing is ever as it should be.

So, let’s assume the Tribunal orders a rerun and allows Tinubu to participate in it, what are his chances?

I can categorically say that Tinubu will lose a rerun election scandalously, and here are my reasons:

1) Uncoordinated and Brutish Subsidy Removal

One of the the harshest things that Tinubu did to Nigerians was the manner he removed fuel subsidy. It has thrown every Nigerian into pauperism and made even his most ardent supporters say “had I known”.

I know Tinubu supporters like to say he had no choice with subsidy removal because Buhari government already decided to end subsidy, but that’s a lie. First, the Buhari government made provision for payment of fuel subsidy till the end of June, Tinubu removed it on the 29th of May. Again, being the president, he had powers to even extend the subsidy payment till Christmas and make adequate provisions for palliatives towards the removal of subsidy by January of 2024. But he chose to go with impulse rather than calculated approach.

So, the effect of subsidy removal is one of the greatest things that will work against Tinubu if a rerun is ordered. How do you convince the hungry peasant to vote Tinubu again when s/he knows the hardship Tinubu has caused him or her within a short period?

Fun Fact: Did you know removal of fuel subsidy was not part of Tinubu’s speech at inauguration?

2) We Have Seen His Almighty Team

One of Tinubu’s campaign points then was that he has eyes for talent and will assemble the best brains to solve Nigeria’s problems like he did in Lagos. It was a point that appealed to a lot of people. But having been inaugurated and he chose his team, Nigerians have been left scratching their heads and asking, “are these the best brains?”

Tinubu appointed a lawyer as Aviation Minister.

Appointed two failed governors as Ministers of Defence.

Appointed Abacha’s bagman as Minister of Budget and National Planning.

Installed a thief, captured taking bribe on camera, as the chairman of his party. Just to mention a few.

What’s inspiring about this team that Tinubu will campaign with again? So, the stale line of “he will assemble the best brains” will no longer work because we have seen what he gathered.

3) No More Senators and House of Reps Candidates.

One concept that featured prominently during the electioneering campaigns was “structure”. And by structure they referred to the fact that they had candidates for every post in all the states. So, in the last election, you had Senatorial and House of Rep candidates who vigorously campaigned for APC, not because of their love or believe in Tinubu but because their own destiny was tied to the party’s success. So, a lot of these candidates who were popular in their constituencies garnered votes for APC in their regions which ultimately rubbed off on Tinubu as well. The National Assembly candidates were so helpful to the party that even those who lost, still garnered considerable votes in their name and for the party which helped add to the numbers.

Another candidate that enjoyed a similar privilege is Atiku. Because PDP with its spread fielded candidates for all elective positions in the election and the performance of these candidates helped shore up the numbers garnered by the party.

Only Peter Obi didn’t have this privilege. If anything, he was actually the reason a lot of National Assembly candidates on the Labour Party platform won their election, and not the other way round.

Now, if a rerun is ordered, the National Assembly candidates will no longer be there. The implication is that voters will approach polling units with only the names of the presidential candidates in mind. Can the voters in the core north choose Tinubu over Atiku and Kwankwaso considering other exigencies? I think not.

4) INEC Cannot Have “Technical Glitches” Twice

One of the most controversial things that happened in the last election was the shutting down of the INEC’s Electronic Result Viewing Portal (IREV) in the name of “technical glitches” which many believe was done to enable INEC manipulate the outcome of the election to favour a particular candidate.

Till date, almost 6 months after the election, INEC has not been able to explain the nature of the glitch they encountered. Not even in court were they able to demonstrate it.

But if a rerun is ordered, I refuse to even imagine the possibility of INEC telling Nigerians that they had another “technical glitches” again. If anything, if a rerun is ordered, Mahmoud Yakubu may have to give way for someone that Nigerians can trust to supervise the election. People in the level of Emir Sanusi or Bishop Kukah.

Now, if IREV works, Nigerians would be able to monitor the votes as they come in IN REAL TIME, which will eliminate or at least drastically reduce the chances of the votes being manipulated anymore. Unlike what we had in the previous election where we were seeing tipexed result sheets everywhere with figures manipulated and altered to assign numbers to candidates who didn’t score them.

5) Disgruntled APC Members

A lot of APC members that worked for Tinubu with a lot of vigour in the last election will no longer be doing that again having seen themselves sidelined after Tinubu emerged ‘victorious’.

I do not see people like Tanko Almakura, Omisore, Omo-Agege, Abdullahi Adamu, El-Rufai, Bayo Onanuga, and other numerous people who are already sheathing in pains of neglect, investing the same kind of vigour they invested in the first election. And what’s worst? Tinubu has not gained any new supporters that can replace these people in their respective states. Well, maybe except Asari Dokubo.

6) Niger Crisis
The way Tinubu has handled the Niger crisis has left a lot northerners apprehensive of Tinubu’s intentions for the north. Because if the senate had not pulled the plug on Tinubu’s request for military action in Niger, and had northern stakeholders not gotten involved in finding a diplomatic solution to the problem, coupled with the pushback of a lot of well-meaning Nigerians, Tinubu would have invaded Niger Republic and thrown the northern states that border Niger into humanitarian crisis. With this, if a rerun is ordered, a lot of northern stakeholders will be very skeptical in confidently campaigning for Tinubu again.

7) Some Former APC States Are Now In The Hands of Other Parties

During the last election, states like Kano, Zamfara and Plateau States were APC states. Tinubu won in Zamfara with the help of Mattawale’s unflinching support. He got about 300k votes (whether real or cooked) in Plateau due to Simon Lalong’s influence who was his campaign DG and sitting governor. Then he got over 700k votes in Kano due to Ganduje’s influence, whether real or cooked. But with Plateau and Zamfara now in the hands of PDP, Tinubu will obviously not do close to 20% of the numbers he did in those states in the last election. Similarly in Kano, except Kwankwaso decides to support him in a rerun, Tinubu is not likely going to do above 300k votes in Kano. And I say 300k votes because I don’t want to rule out the little influence that Ganduje still holds.

Bonus: Comment On Kwankwaso
It is necessary I mention Kwankwaso because he seems to have openly started this on-and-off relationship with Tinubu that we don’t know what it is yet. A lot of us expected him to make it into Tinubu’s cabinet but he didn’t, for whatever reason.

Now, the comment on him became necessary because in the event of a rerun, some alignments and realignments are likely to happen. And in these suspected likely alignments, Kwankwaso is the only one most likely to align with Tinubu. But can he?

Can Kwankwaso, who prides himself as the “Manduga”, the patron of the masses, look at the faces of the suffering northern masses and tell them to choose Tinubu despite the hardships he has caused them in the past few months?

Can he go against the general opinion of northern stakeholders should they decide not to support Tinubu due to so many factors including his shady existence and his activities in Niger? Can he?

Even if he decides to, how much influence can he bring? In the last election, he only won Kano. Would that be enough to help Tinubu in a rerun?

Conclusion

So, you see why Tinubu might struggle to even make third position should rerun be ordered? And as always, these are realistic points informed by empirical data and devoid of any emotion or bias. But feel free to to point out whatever you think is not as I stated it.

Penguin is a bird of reason!

Mr Penguin, let me cast your mind back, before the election some low I.Q people like you predict Tinubu to be 3rd but you are dwarf in you scheme.

Anyways no rerun anywhere, rerun is not budgeted for, but you are free to do rerun on who inherit you father's farm land in your family house.

A drop my pen here

Tinubu will not participate in a rerun!

Why will there be a rerun that includes Tinubu if he compromised the election in the first place?

You're a mumu man.

Even the rerun, you no go see.

You all just wake up from your sleep thinking you're more knowledgeable than all the people in govt.

If there's any reasonable case against Tinubu at all, he wouldn't have been allowed to contest in the first place.

When all the eyes on judiciary get worn out, they would go blind .

Your wish, it's in your DNA to always wish others bad luck that Amadoiha has gifted you

him no win before nah!!

Will he lose scandalously to Peter Obi who couldn't secure 25% in 21 federation units out of 37?

1. zamfara 1,660 votes (0.%)
2. Jigawa 1,889 votes(0%)
3. Yobe 2,406 votes(0%)
4. Katsina 6,376 votes (0.%)
5. Sokoto 6,568 votes (1%)
6. Borno 7,205 votes (1%)
7. Kebbi 10,682 votes (1%)
8. Ekiti 11,397 votes(3%)
9. Kano 28,513 votes (1%)
10. Bauchi 27,373 votes(3%)
11. Osun 23,283 votes(3%)
12. Gombe 26,160 votes(5%)
13. Kwara 31, 166 votes (6%)
14 Ondo 47,350 votes(8%)
15. Kogi 56,217 votes (12%)
16. Niger 80,452 votes (10%)
17. Ogun 85,829 votes (14%)
18. Oyo 99,110 votes (12%)
18. Adamawa 105, 648 votes (14%)
19. Akwa Ibom 132,683 votes (23%)
20. Kaduna 294,494 votes (21%)

Penguin2:
With the way evidences keep propping up against Tinubu almost on a daily basis, it is becoming increasingly likely that the most favourable judgment Tinubu might get from the Tribunal is a rerun that he would participate in.

Ordinarily, and as it might happen, with the volume of evidence against Tinubu, ranging from forgery to perjury to double nomination to invalid nomination to fine from drug, Tinubu should be disqualified from even participating in a rerun (that’s if the court is not returning a new winner). But this is Nigeria where nothing is ever as it should be.

So, let’s assume the Tribunal orders a rerun and allows Tinubu to participate in it, what are his chances?

I can categorically say that Tinubu will lose a rerun election scandalously, and here are my reasons:

1) Uncoordinated and Brutish Subsidy Removal

One of the the harshest things that Tinubu did to Nigerians was the manner he removed fuel subsidy. It has thrown every Nigerian into pauperism and made even his most ardent supporters say “had I known”.

I know Tinubu supporters like to say he had no choice with subsidy removal because Buhari government already decided to end subsidy, but that’s a lie. First, the Buhari government made provision for payment of fuel subsidy till the end of June, Tinubu removed it on the 29th of May. Again, being the president, he had powers to even extend the subsidy payment till Christmas and make adequate provisions for palliatives towards the removal of subsidy by January of 2024. But he chose to go with impulse rather than calculated approach.

So, the effect of subsidy removal is one of the greatest things that will work against Tinubu if a rerun is ordered. How do you convince the hungry peasant to vote Tinubu again when s/he knows the hardship Tinubu has caused him or her within a short period?

Fun Fact: Did you know removal of fuel subsidy was not part of Tinubu’s speech at inauguration?

2) We Have Seen His Almighty Team

One of Tinubu’s campaign points then was that he has eyes for talent and will assemble the best brains to solve Nigeria’s problems like he did in Lagos. It was a point that appealed to a lot of people. But having been inaugurated and he chose his team, Nigerians have been left scratching their heads and asking, “are these the best brains?”

Tinubu appointed a lawyer as Aviation Minister.

Appointed two failed governors as Ministers of Defence.

Appointed Abacha’s bagman as Minister of Budget and National Planning.

Installed a thief, captured taking bribe on camera, as the chairman of his party. Just to mention a few.

What’s inspiring about this team that Tinubu will campaign with again? So, the stale line of “he will assemble the best brains” will no longer work because we have seen what he gathered.

3) No More Senators and House of Reps Candidates.

One concept that featured prominently during the electioneering campaigns was “structure”. And by structure they referred to the fact that they had candidates for every post in all the states. So, in the last election, you had Senatorial and House of Rep candidates who vigorously campaigned for APC, not because of their love or believe in Tinubu but because their own destiny was tied to the party’s success. So, a lot of these candidates who were popular in their constituencies garnered votes for APC in their regions which ultimately rubbed off on Tinubu as well. The National Assembly candidates were so helpful to the party that even those who lost, still garnered considerable votes in their name and for the party which helped add to the numbers.

Another candidate that enjoyed a similar privilege is Atiku. Because PDP with its spread fielded candidates for all elective positions in the election and the performance of these candidates helped shore up the numbers garnered by the party.

Only Peter Obi didn’t have this privilege. If anything, he was actually the reason a lot of National Assembly candidates on the Labour Party platform won their election, and not the other way round.

Now, if a rerun is ordered, the National Assembly candidates will no longer be there. The implication is that voters will approach polling units with only the names of the presidential candidates in mind. Can the voters in the core north choose Tinubu over Atiku and Kwankwaso considering other exigencies? I think not.

4) INEC Cannot Have “Technical Glitches” Twice

One of the most controversial things that happened in the last election was the shutting down of the INEC’s Electronic Result Viewing Portal (IREV) in the name of “technical glitches” which many believe was done to enable INEC manipulate the outcome of the election to favour a particular candidate.

Till date, almost 6 months after the election, INEC has not been able to explain the nature of the glitch they encountered. Not even in court were they able to demonstrate it.

But if a rerun is ordered, I refuse to even imagine the possibility of INEC telling Nigerians that they had another “technical glitches” again. If anything, if a rerun is ordered, Mahmoud Yakubu may have to give way for someone that Nigerians can trust to supervise the election. People in the level of Emir Sanusi or Bishop Kukah.

Now, if IREV works, Nigerians would be able to monitor the votes as they come in IN REAL TIME, which will eliminate or at least drastically reduce the chances of the votes being manipulated anymore. Unlike what we had in the previous election where we were seeing tipexed result sheets everywhere with figures manipulated and altered to assign numbers to candidates who didn’t score them.

5) Disgruntled APC Members

A lot of APC members that worked for Tinubu with a lot of vigour in the last election will no longer be doing that again having seen themselves sidelined after Tinubu emerged ‘victorious’.

I do not see people like Tanko Almakura, Omisore, Omo-Agege, Abdullahi Adamu, El-Rufai, Bayo Onanuga, and other numerous people who are already sheathing in pains of neglect, investing the same kind of vigour they invested in the first election. And what’s worst? Tinubu has not gained any new supporters that can replace these people in their respective states. Well, maybe except Asari Dokubo.

6) Niger Crisis
The way Tinubu has handled the Niger crisis has left a lot northerners apprehensive of Tinubu’s intentions for the north. Because if the senate had not pulled the plug on Tinubu’s request for military action in Niger, and had northern stakeholders not gotten involved in finding a diplomatic solution to the problem, coupled with the pushback of a lot of well-meaning Nigerians, Tinubu would have invaded Niger Republic and thrown the northern states that border Niger into humanitarian crisis. With this, if a rerun is ordered, a lot of northern stakeholders will be very skeptical in confidently campaigning for Tinubu again.

7) Some Former APC States Are Now In The Hands of Other Parties

During the last election, states like Kano, Zamfara and Plateau States were APC states. Tinubu won in Zamfara with the help of Mattawale’s unflinching support. He got about 300k votes (whether real or cooked) in Plateau due to Simon Lalong’s influence who was his campaign DG and sitting governor. Then he got over 700k votes in Kano due to Ganduje’s influence, whether real or cooked. But with Plateau and Zamfara now in the hands of PDP, Tinubu will obviously not do close to 20% of the numbers he did in those states in the last election. Similarly in Kano, except Kwankwaso decides to support him in a rerun, Tinubu is not likely going to do above 300k votes in Kano. And I say 300k votes because I don’t want to rule out the little influence that Ganduje still holds.

Bonus: Comment On Kwankwaso
It is necessary I mention Kwankwaso because he seems to have openly started this on-and-off relationship with Tinubu that we don’t know what it is yet. A lot of us expected him to make it into Tinubu’s cabinet but he didn’t, for whatever reason.

Now, the comment on him became necessary because in the event of a rerun, some alignments and realignments are likely to happen. And in these suspected likely alignments, Kwankwaso is the only one most likely to align with Tinubu. But can he?

Can Kwankwaso, who prides himself as the “Manduga”, the patron of the masses, look at the faces of the suffering northern masses and tell them to choose Tinubu despite the hardships he has caused them in the past few months?

Can he go against the general opinion of northern stakeholders should they decide not to support Tinubu due to so many factors including his shady existence and his activities in Niger? Can he?

Even if he decides to, how much influence can he bring? In the last election, he only won Kano. Would that be enough to help Tinubu in a rerun?

Conclusion

So, you see why Tinubu might struggle to even make third position should rerun be ordered? And as always, these are realistic points informed by empirical data and devoid of any emotion or bias. But feel free to to point out whatever you think is not as I stated it.

Penguin is a bird of reason!

another Igbo garbage

Hypothesis theorem.

But your own 🐧 na bird of lunatic

Penguin2:

Penguin is a bird of reason!

K

F

ronalmagic10:
Look at the long epistle you're typing early Monday morning? You're a big disappointment to your generation.

Think about your life!

Oshey, Bill Gate.

I can see you that is so busy making billions, yet you are here dragging first to comment on a Monday morning. How are you different from what you accused me of?

jconsulting:


Mr Penguin, let me cast your mind back, before the election some low I.Q people like you predict Tinubu to be 3rd but you are dwarf in you scheme.

Anyways no rerun anywhere, rerun is not budgeted for, but you are free to do rerun on who inherit you father's farm land in your family house.

A drop my pen here

And he did come third but INEC shut down collation system to conjure numbers for Tinubu.

That’s why I’m here to tell you that this time around, his loss will be too scandalous that not even INEC can help him.

I will be here to say I told you so.

onumadu:
The topic should be "Why Tinubu Will Lose Scandalously AGAIN If A Rerun Is Ordered".

Typical Igbo loser mindset.

helinues:


Why using if again? Are you afraid of making unconditional statements without if

Say it authoritatively

Why would I say it authoritatively, am I the judge?

Or you think I’m you people that make outlandish claims with so much authority as if you are God?

Relax, every dynasty has an end; and this is where Tinubu’s dynasty ends.

Tinubu will be disgraced at the market square.

leokid866:
lol which empirical data? They told you that the 8.7 Million of us that votes him into power no longer have our voters card or what?

You mean 8.7million ghosts?

Because the 8.7 million people don’t seem to exist anywhere. Not online, not offline.

You can’t even influence a trend table on Twitter. Neither can you mobilize offline.

Where una dey exist gan gan?

You underrate ebola. That man is a genius when it comes to criminality.

Penguin2:

You mean 8.7million ghosts?

Because the 8.7 million people don’t seem to exist anywhere. Not online, not offline.

You can’t even influence a trend table on Twitter. Neither can you mobilize offline.

Where una dey exist gan gan?

you're right we are ghost 👻......Boo......

onumadu:
The topic should be "Why Tinubu Will Lose Scandalously AGAIN If A Rerun Is Ordered".

Ignorantly Proud, Shameless Faceless Obidient.

leokid866:
you're right we are ghost 👻......Boo......

Whilst penguin2, & his legion of Empty Barrel Obidients, are visible?

Okoroawusa:
Penguin2 zukwanike

The downfall of Tinubu is a task that must be achieved, and I will not rest until that task is accomplished.