₦airaland Forum

The crisis in Rivers State came to the public burner when the House of Assembly attempted to impeach the Governor of the state, Sim Fubara.
However, keen observers know that the surprising frosty relationship between the Gover and his godfather, former Governor Nyesom Wike predated the infamous impeachment notice.
The Assembly chambers was burnt in a futile attempt to prevent the Assembly from sitting.
One thing led to the other and President Tinubu eventually intervened to broker a ceasefire.

That is where Fubara won the war.
The intervention of the President has ensured that he would no longer be impeached and it is most likely that he would spend his constitutional four years tenure as Governor.
The whole war was about the seat of the Governor and from all indications, he won't be removed any longer.
Without the intervention of the President, knowledgeable people in the politics of the state know that Wike would have impeached the Governor. Constitutionally, he has all the arsenals to achieve it.

On top of keeping his seat, the crisis has afforded Fubara the opportunity of untangling himself from the choking clutches of his godfather.
There are stories of the almost inhuman conditions he was made to operate as Governor.
Stories of how Wike remotely controls everything in the Government House, even to the point of determining who should and not visit the Governor, abound to those who have their ears to the ground.
Most despicable were stories of how he was being disrespected by his own appointees.
Clearly, that can not be the case anymore especially as he is no longer on talking terms with his godfather.
Fubara is now finally in charge of his government.

Anyone in Fubara's shoes should have seen these as victory and cease to fight.
He should have stopped his dispute with the Assembly where he has only 4 out of 31 members.
I thought he would be more interested in getting the Assembly to reverse the suspension of his 4 supporters so that they can resume to sit with their colleagues.
He needs those his 4 supporters in the House rather than out of it. At least, they can be his eyes and ears in the House.
There is no need in continuing a losing battle in the Assembly when he has already won the war.

But Fubara is not being strategic in managing the victory.
On the surface, it looks like he is being reconciliatory but that is far from the truth in reality.
He is the one now taking battles to the other side.
He should have avoided being spurred on to fight on and go for the jugular of Wike.
These later day supporters are not leading him on because they support him. In fact, most of them did not support him during the elections.
He is their darling today because they see him as a tool through which they can destroy his godfather.
Some are seeing this as an opportunity to get into the government and cash out.
Some have tried desperately to make it look like an ethnic war between the Ijaws and the Ikwerres. They know their motives.

Fubara should know better.
He should know the motives of these emergency supporters leading him to continue battling when he had already won the war.
He should play the right politics now that will bring the crisis to a manageable level so that governance does not continue to suffer.
He has won the war for the seat of Governor and liberated himself from the clutches of his godfather.
But listening to war mongers and urging him to go for the kill might put his victories in jeopardy.
In politics, one must learn to choose his battles wisely.

https://www.nairaland.com/7938508/rivers-crisis-gov-fubara-already

NOTE:
I did this piece on the 12th of December before Governor Fubara demolished the House of Assembly complex that eventually led to the humiliating terms of settlement he signed in Abuja. The war had long been won by Fubara but he and his supporters failed to recognise it and kept on fighting instead of consolidating on the victory. What was the point of demolishing the Assembly complex? How exactly did that demolition help the Governor?

For those who thought otherwise and were urging him to continue fighting when he had already won the war, what has the Governor gained between December 12th and now? Politics is more of brains than brawn.

How una de take know who win?

buharibanjo:
How una de take know who win?

Read the article again.
In a war, there may be many battles. One can win some battles and lose others.
But the ultimate objective is to win the war.
The Rivers crisis is about the seat of the governor and control of the state.
Governor Fubara keeps his seat (the red biro) at least till 2027 and he has freed himself substantially from the grips of his godfather.
That is the war he had long won. What is more important than these two?

sirpharrell:
Read the article again.
In a war, there may be many battles. One can win some battles and lose others.
But the ultimate objective is to win the war.
The Rivers crisis is about the seat of the governor and control of the state.
Governor Fubara keeps his seat (the red biro) at least till 2027 and he has freed himself substantially from the grips of his godfather.
That is the war he had long won. What is more important than these two?

The War is not won by Fubara until he wins second term. I must say he only got a temporary breather. It is a two phase battle that makes up the war. Fubara hasn't won any! Right now with Wikes men back in control of the state house of assembly, Fubara shouldn't sleep with his eyes closed. That they signed an agreement doesn't mean that Wike can't renege on it and the presidency will play dumb if it serves their interest. It is politics, you play or get played! Betrayal comes with the terrain!

shaqhead:
The War is not won by Fubara until he wins second term. I must say he only got a temporary breather. It is a two phase battle that makes up the war. Fubara hasn't won any! Right now with Wikes men back in control of the state house of assembly, Fubara shouldn't sleep with his eyes closed. That they signed an agreement doesn't mean that Wike can't renege on it and the presidency will play dumb if it serves their interest. It is politics, you play or get played! Betrayal comes with the terrain!

The war is not about Fubara's second term. It is about he surviving his first term and freeing himself from Wike's grips.
It was inevitable that Wike will eventually regain control of the Assembly. I stated this earlier.
Anybody that thought otherwise or that Wike's men had lost their seats is simply naive.
The Governor adopted the wrong strategy in fighting the Assembly. If he played the right politics, he should have got more members by now.
That demolition was just too reckless and didn't help him in any way.

sirpharrell:
The war is not about Fubara's second term. It is about he surviving his first term and freeing himself from Wike's grips.
It was inevitable that Wike will eventually regain control of the Assembly. I stated this earlier.
Anybody that thought otherwise or that Wike's men had lost their seats is simply naive.
The Governor adopted the wrong strategy in fighting the Assembly. If he played the right politics, he should have got more members by now.
That demolition was just too reckless and didn't help him in any way.

Then how do you say Fubara has freed himself from Wikes grip when he is been asked to re-present a budget which has already been passed? How do you function independently when you still are at the mercy of Wikes men? The politicking for 2nd term has started already and if Fubara has not galvanised a solid support base by now then I wish him well!

When did the grip on Obaseki by Oshiomole manifest itself? When he sought second term, remember? If not because Oshiomole had lost favor with some powerful people in Abuja and Edo people stood solidly behind Obaseki, he would have been given the Ambode treatment.

Yes I agree with you that Fubara played reckless politics with the Assembly complex demolition anud he disappointed so many people who now see him as weak for signing that agreement which immediately gave Wike an upper hand!

Oh ok
Well it's nice he's won the war

sirpharrell:
Read the article again.
In a war, there may be many battles. One can win some battles and lose others.
But the ultimate objective is to win the war.
The Rivers crisis is about the seat of the governor and control of the state.
Governor Fubara keeps his seat (the red biro) at least till 2027 and he has freed himself substantially from the grips of his godfather.
That is the war he had long won. What is more important than these two?

shaqhead:
Then how do you say Fubara has freed himself from Wikes grip when he is been asked to re-present a budget which has already been passed? How do you function independently when you still are at the mercy of Wikes men? The politicking for 2nd term has started already and if Fubara has not galvanised a solid support base by now then I wish him well!

When did the grip on Obaseki by Oshiomole manifest itself? When he sought second term, remember? If not because Oshiomole had lost favor with some powerful people in Abuja and Edo people stood solidly behind Obaseki, he would have been given the Ambode treatment.

Yes I agree with you that Fubara played reckless politics with the Assembly complex demolition anud he disappointed so many people who now see him as weak for signing that agreement which immediately gave Wike an upper hand!

What is the problem in representing the budget?
Apart from ego, what exactly will the governor lose in representing it?
What was the hurry in presenting the budget to his 4 man Assembly in the first place?
That move was just another unnecessary show of bravado. Fubara's team need to use their brains more than their muscles.
Please stop referring to Ambode and Obaseki. This war in Rivers is not about a second term.

Fubara is just a weakling
He should go head on to his enemies
Train agberos from all the local government area of the state and place them on payroll monthly
Just make the state a dread for both wike and the house of Assembly members
How can you be a governor and wike will comfortably come to your state and hold meetings..
By now Rivers should have been no go area for wike

sirpharrell:
The crisis in Rivers State came to the public burner when the House of Assembly attempted to impeach the Governor of the state, Sim Fubara.
However, keen observers know that the surprising frosty relationship between the Gover and his godfather, former Governor Nyesom Wike predated the infamous impeachment notice.
The Assembly chambers was burnt in a futile attempt to prevent the Assembly from sitting.
One thing led to the other and President Tinubu eventually intervened to broker a ceasefire.

That is where Fubara won the war.
The intervention of the President has ensured that he would no longer be impeached and it is most likely that he would spend his constitutional four years tenure as Governor.
The whole war was about the seat of the Governor and from all indications, he won't be removed any longer.
Without the intervention of the President, knowledgeable people in the politics of the state know that Wike would have impeached the Governor. Constitutionally, he has all the arsenals to achieve it.

On top of keeping his seat, the crisis has afforded Fubara the opportunity of untangling himself from the choking clutches of his godfather.
There are stories of the almost inhuman conditions he was made to operate as Governor.
Stories of how Wike remotely controls everything in the Government House, even to the point of determining who should and not visit the Governor, abound to those who have their ears to the ground.
Most despicable were stories of how he was being disrespected by his own appointees.
Clearly, that can not be the case anymore especially as he is no longer on talking terms with his godfather.
Fubara is now finally in charge of his government.

Anyone in Fubara's shoes should have seen these as victory and cease to fight.
He should have stopped his dispute with the Assembly where he has only 4 out of 31 members.
I thought he would be more interested in getting the Assembly to reverse the suspension of his 4 supporters so that they can resume to sit with their colleagues.
He needs those his 4 supporters in the House rather than out of it. At least, they can be his eyes and ears in the House.
There is no need in continuing a losing battle in the Assembly when he has already won the war.

But Fubara is not being strategic in managing the victory.
On the surface, it looks like he is being reconciliatory but that is far from the truth in reality.
He is the one now taking battles to the other side.
He should have avoided being spurred on to fight on and go for the jugular of Wike.
These later day supporters are not leading him on because they support him. In fact, most of them did not support him during the elections.
He is their darling today because they see him as a tool through which they can destroy his godfather.
Some are seeing this as an opportunity to get into the government and cash out.
Some have tried desperately to make it look like an ethnic war between the Ijaws and the Ikwerres. They know their motives.

Fubara should know better.
He should know the motives of these emergency supporters leading him to continue battling when he had already won the war.
He should play the right politics now that will bring the crisis to a manageable level so that governance does not continue to suffer.
He has won the war for the seat of Governor and liberated himself from the clutches of his godfather.
But listening to war mongers and urging him to go for the kill might put his victories in jeopardy.
In politics, one must learn to choose his battles wisely.

https://www.nairaland.com/7938508/rivers-crisis-gov-fubara-already

NOTE:
I did this piece on the 12th of December before Governor Fubara demolished the House of Assembly complex that eventually led to the humiliating terms of settlement he signed in Abuja. The war had long been won by Fubara but he and his supporters failed to recognise it and kept on fighting instead of consolidating on the victory. What was the point of demolishing the Assembly complex? How exactly did that demolition help the Governor?

For those who thought otherwise and were urging him to continue fighting when he had already won the war, what has the Governor gained between December 12th and now? Politics is more of brains than brawn.

What of the 15 January judgement

Rutherford2019:
Fubara is just a weakling
He should go head on to his enemies
Train agberos from all the local government area of the state and place them on payroll monthly
Just make the state a dread for both wike and the house of Assembly members
How can you be a governor and wike will comfortably come to your state and hold meetings..
By now Rivers should have been no go area for wike

I believe it is this kind of emotional but thoughtless advice that the governor has been getting.
Is crushing Wike what this is all about?
How do you even go about crushing Wike without incurring repercussions from Tinubu.
Is it not the same unhelpful strategy that made him to demolish the Assembly complex and people were hailing him?
What exactly did he gain by that action except the humiliating Abuja Accord.
That's why I said the governor needs more brains than brawns in his team.
He has already won the war to secure his first term.
What he needs now is to endear himself more to the Rivers people by providing good governance and playing the right politics to decimate Wike's camp.

Tinubu needs fubara more than fubara needs Tinubu
The only obstacle is for him to win his Supreme Court case
He can make the state house of assembly not to seat for 1yr

quote author=sirpharrell post=127899820]

I believe it is this kind of emotional but thoughtless advice that the governor has been getting.
Is crushing Wike what this is all about?
How do you even go about crushing Wike without incurring repercussions from Tinubu.
Is it not the same unhelpful strategy that made him to demolish the Assembly complex and people were hailing him?
What exactly did he gain by that action except the humiliating Abuja Accord.
That's why I said the governor needs more brains than brawns in his team.
He has already won the war to secure his first term.
What he needs now is to endear himself more to the Rivers people by providing good governance and playing the right politics to decimate Wike's camp.[/quote]

sirpharrell:
What is the problem in representing the budget?
Apart from ego, what exactly will the governor lose in representing it?
What was the hurry in presenting the budget to his 4 man Assembly in the first place?
That move was just another unnecessary show of bravado. Fubara's team need to use their brains more than their muscles.
Please stop referring to Ambode and Obaseki. This war in Rivers is not about a second term.

I guess our disagreement lies in the fact that you are looking through the keyhole to judge the situation and I choose to look at the big picture. You are also giving Fubara some phantom victory that he knows he hasn't got. The fight is about one word CONTROL and right now Fubara has little to none of it!

Ambode and Obaseki are examples of HOW NOT TO and HOW TO wrest free from the grip of a Godfather! You are right on the count that Fubara employed too much brawn over brains but at the same time saying he won anything is just pure flattery!

At the end of the day time is the revealer of all things and how long this quiet lasts. This is not peace but a cease-fire! Have a great day

shaqhead:
I guess our disagreement lies in the fact that you are looking through the keyhole to judge the situation and I choose to look at the big picture. You are also giving Fubara some phantom victory that he knows he hasn't got. The fight is about one word CONTROL and right now Fubara has little to none of it!

Ambode and Obaseki are examples of HOW NOT TO and HOW TO wrest free from the grip of a Godfather! You are right on the count that Fubara employed too much brawn over brains but at the same time saying he won anything is just pure flattery!

At the end of the day time is the revealer of all things and how long this quiet lasts. This is not peace but a cease-fire! Have a great day

I have maintained since December 12th that Fubara had already won the war.
If you say that the fight is about CONTROL, then he has already won
As at October 30th, even Fubara himself thought that his time as Governor was up.
As at October 30th, Fubara had little or no control over his own government.
By December 12th, these two shortcomings had been substantially overcome.
Before the crisis, Wike controlled even minor details like who is allowed to visit the Governor at Government House.
Now, almost all of Wike's men are out of the Brick House.
By the time that the tenure of the LGA Chairmen expires in June this year, Fubara will exsercise even greater control of the state.
Before the crisis, it was given that Wike would produce the next set of LGA Chairmen. Will that still be the case?
Wike was supposed to have decamped to APC in December but he is so afraid to do so.
I wonder what else you will see to realise that the Governor had already won the war.
Maybe until you see Wike literally dead ?.