₦airaland Forum

AntiChristian:
What's the cause?

And who did i blame?

Tinubu is the cause and you are trying to divert the responsibility by insulting Christians to come perform miracle for problem you and your leader caused...

Why don't you go and stand in front of train and get crushed then come and beg Christians to perform miracle for you?

Vision101:
Just like what is happening to fuel now the exchange rate back then was subsidized. It was fixed by administrative fiat not minding the effect of demand and supply. Now naira is floated which means that demand and supply determines the rate.

You still do not get it. Only the official rate was fixed by the Buhari govt. The parallel rate was basically market driven. So what happened in Nigeria for currency exchange rate to shift by over 100% in accordance year. Or do you mean parallel rate was fixed too?

Brendaniel:
Tinubu is the cause and you are trying to divert the responsibility by insulting Christians to come perform miracle for problem you and your leader caused...

Tinubu is the cause of what? Christians are saying "what God cannot do does not exist" and the Lords Chosen are trumping up many ridiculous testimonies! So why can't i blame them for telling lies?

Why don't you go and stand in front of train and get crushed then come and beg Christians to perform miracle for you?

That's suicide! And anyone who does that will enter hell!

Ojuntana:
You still do not get it. Only the official rate was fixed by the Buhari govt. The parallel rate was basically market driven. So what happened in Nigeria for currency exchange rate to shift by over 100% in accordance year. Or do you mean parallel rate was fixed too?

Oga understand finance. The parallel market rate was determined by the premium between the official and parallel market rates. If the official market rate is low then the parallel market rate will adjust downward while maintaining a premium. If the official rate goes upward then the parallel market rate will adjust upward while maintaining a certain premium.

The primary source of funding for parallel market is the official market.

AntiChristian:
Tinubu is the cause of what? Christians are saying "what God cannot do does not exist" and the Lords Chosen are trumping up many ridiculous testimonies! So why can't i blame them for telling lies?

That's suicide! And anyone who does that will enter hell!

Tinubu is not the cause of the currency falling,? you are the cause then...

Why not commit suicide and come and beg Christians to come and raise you from the dead?

Brendaniel:
Tinubu is not the cause of the currency falling,? you are the cause then...

Tinubu is not the cause! Nigeria was already on the precipice before! Those who have eyes can see it!

Why not commit suicide and come and beg Christians to come and raise you from the dead?

Pastor Oyakhilome lose his dad and Pa Adeboye lose one of his son yet couldn't raise them like Jesus did! How will i trust them? Suicide is haram!

I can't stop laughing 🤣

A failed county....with failed currency...

AntiChristian:
Tinubu is not the cause! Nigeria was already on the precipice before! Those who have eyes can see it!

Pastor Oyakhilome lose his dad and Pa Adeboye lose one of his son yet couldn't raise them like Jesus did! How will i trust them? Suicide is haram!

So you are now blaming Buhari that you also supported for 8 years?

Why not just commit suicide and come and beg Christians to come and raise you from the dead?

Brendaniel:
So you are now blaming Buhari that you also supported for 8 years?

Why not just commit suicide and come and beg Christians to come and raise you from the dead?

We should blame ourselves for the poor community we now have! Our leaders are from the community! An average Nigerian is like our leaders!

AntiChristian:
We should blame ourselves for the poor community we now have! Our leaders are from the community! An average Nigerian is like our leaders!

Your leaders are from the community then why select those who will not teach you to become better rather to become worse like Tinubu is doing?

Even most animals pick the best among them to lead them, are you saying Buhari and Tinubu were the best from among Nigerians?

What then is leadership if the leaders you select don't lead by good examples?

Ojuntana:
Grandstar do you agree that naira is massively undervalued?
Remember I once asked you how you'll knew when naira reaches its true value?

It is hard to say. For me, I think the present value is okay based on the present fundamental. Fundamentals plays the most parts in determining a currencies value. In forex trading there are over 50 fundamentals that can determine a currencies value.

Presently, things have improved from when Tinubu took office. The floating of the Naira has been successfully done. If you're using WhatsApp business, you'd notice that the App will state you can start advertising with N1,620. Prior to this, that price would have been in dollars. On Tiktok, you can even pay for coins using your Naira Debit card. This wasn't possible before.

To some extent, one of the most important points about an exchange rate is it should have an exchange rate its central bank can defend. It seems the government can defend the present exchange rate. There is no point having an exchange rate of $1-200 or even 1,000 and the CBN can not defend it. Also, the disparity between the official rate and the black market is also very little, which is also very important.

Lamido Sanusi said it should not be more than 3%. The IMF says a 5% differential is also acceptable. The present differential between the official and the black market lies within that bracket.

Forget the exchange rate and focus on the fundamentals. For instance, The South Korean won is a 4 digit currency like the Naira. It does not mean the currency is worthless. It has kept its value over the past 10 years.

The Naira's value can increase though. Why do I say so?

Inflation in Nigeria is higher than it should be because the CBN does not want to tighten monetary policy. To explain better, if the inflation rate is 33%, the CBN will peg interest rates above the inflation rate, lets say 35%. This will encourage savings rather than spending. It will take money out of circulation. The less Naira there is in circulation, the less Naira to bid for forex. This will strengthen the Naira.

Presently, the CBN has set its rate at 27.5%, which is 5.5% below the current inflation rate. It is not high enough to encourage mop up excess cash in circulation. If the CBN made it high enough in real terms, the Naira's value may strengthen to around N1,500. Inflation would begin to drop which has been this governments major nemesis.

However, the presidency does not want that. He has always been an advocate of low lending rate. Even though the CBN has autonomy, the present governor is his boy, so has no choice but to do the president's bidding.

Forget about a strong Naira. Such a policy simply encourages importation and not exportation. Nigeria needs an export or perish orientation now that the government can no longer rely on crude oil for majority of its income. There's a serious need to diversify non-oil exports. The strong Naira policy only leads to a draining of the foreign reserves.

Recently or so, government said that it now spends only 65% of the budget servicing debt, unlike the 90% or more it met when Tinubu assumed office.

This was partially achieved by floating the Naira. From around $1-440 at the official rate, it is now 1,600 or so. Since the oil revenue is earned in dollars, when converted to Naira, it means more money. So, lets say the monthly allocation is $1bn, before that, the money would be N440BN.
Now at N1,600, the government would receive 1.6 trillion.

Another was the partial removal of the petrol subsidy.

It is never advisable to spend more 20% of your revenue on debt servicing. At 65%, it is still quite high. The federal government can improve its finances by completely ending the petrol subsidy once and for all by freeing the price as been done with both kerosene and AGO. That move will save government about 5trillion. That should further improve government finances.

If an extra 400,000 barrels of oil per day can be added to the country's crude oil production out, this would swell the federal government's purse greatly.

At such a juncture, I doubt more than 25% of the government revenue would be spent on debt servicing.

The more a government spends as a percentage of government revenue on debt servicing, the weaker its currency is bound to be. So, if you want the petrol subsidy to continue, expect the Naira to become much weaker faster.

I suspect one reason why the Naira might have started losing value may be down to the increase in the minimum wage. This will pump a lot of new money into circulation, stoking inflation. Of course, more money in circulation, means more money to buy dollats. This will lead to the Naira losing failure.

As earlier said, government can fight inflation by increasing the CBN interest rate higher than inflation. This will lead to lower inflation and a stronger Naira.

grandstar:
It is hard to say. For me, I think the present value is okay based on the present fundamental. Fundamentals plays the most parts in determining a currencies value. In forex trading there are over 50 fundamentals that can determine a currencies value.

Presently, things have improved from when Tinubu took office. The floating of the Naira has been successfully done. If you're using WhatsApp business, you'd notice that the App will state you can start advertising with N1,620. Prior to this, that price would have been in dollars. On Tiktok, you can even pay for coins using your Naira Debit card. This wasn't possible before.

To some extent, one of the most important points about an exchange rate is it should have an exchange rate its central bank can defend. It seems the government can defend the present exchange rate. There is no point having an exchange rate of $1-200 or even 1,000 and the CBN can not defend it. Also, the disparity between the official rate and the black market is also very little, which is also very important.

Lamido Sanusi said it should not be more than 3%. The IMF says a 5% differential is also acceptable. The present differential between the official and the black market lies within that bracket.

Forget the exchange rate and focus on the fundamentals. For instance, The South Korean won is a 4 digit currency like the Naira. It does not mean the currency is worthless. It has kept its value over the past 10 years.

The Naira's value can increase though. Why do I say so?

Inflation in Nigeria is higher than it should be because the CBN does not want to tighten monetary policy. To explain better, if the inflation rate is 33%, the CBN will peg interest rates above the inflation rate, lets say 35%. This will encourage savings rather than spending. It will take money out of circulation. The less Naira there is in circulation, the less Naira to bid for forex. This will strengthen the Naira.

Presently, the CBN has set its rate at 27.5%, which is 5.5% below the current inflation rate. It is not high enough to encourage mop up excess cash in circulation. If the CBN made it high enough in real terms, the Naira's value may strengthen to around N1,500. Inflation would begin to drop which has been this governments major nemesis.

However, the presidency does not want that. He has always been an advocate of low lending rate. Even though the CBN has autonomy, the present governor is his boy, so has no choice but to do the president's bidding.

Forget about a strong Naira. Such a policy simply encourages importation and not exportation. Nigeria needs an export or perish orientation now that the government can no longer rely on crude oil for majority of its income. There's a serious need to diversify non-oil exports. The strong Naira policy only leads to a draining of the foreign reserves.

Recently or so, government said that it now spends only 65% of the budget servicing debt, unlike the 90% or more it met when Tinubu assumed office.

This was partially achieved by floating the Naira. From around $1-440 at the official rate, it is now 1,600 or so. Since the oil revenue is earned in dollars, when converted to Naira, it means more money. So, lets say the monthly allocation is $1bn, before that, the money would be N440BN.
Now at N1,600, the government would receive 1.6 trillion.

Another was the partial removal of the petrol subsidy.

It is never advisable to spend more 20% of your revenue on debt servicing. At 65%, it is still quite high. The federal government can improve its finances by completely ending the petrol subsidy once and for all by freeing the price as been done with both kerosene and AGO. That move will save government about 5trillion. That should further improve government finances.

If an extra 400,000 barrels of oil per day can be added to the country's crude oil production out, this would swell the federal government's purse greatly.

At such a juncture, I doubt more than 25% of the government revenue would be spent on debt servicing.

The more a government spends as a percentage of government revenue on debt servicing, the weaker its currency is bound to be. So, if you want the petrol subsidy to continue, expect the Naira to become much weaker faster.

I suspect one reason why the Naira might have started losing value may be down to the increase in the minimum wage. This will pump a lot of new money into circulation, stoking inflation. Of course, more money in circulation, means more money to buy dollats. This will lead to the Naira losing failure.

As earlier said, government can fight inflation by increasing the CBN interest rate higher than inflation. This will lead to lower inflation and a stronger Naira.

👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏✊✊✊✊✊✊✊👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏

grandstar:
It is hard to say.

So much knowledge in here man

grandstar:
Inflation in Nigeria is higher than it should be because the CBN does not want to tighten monetary policy. To explain better, if the inflation rate is 33%, the CBN will peg interest rates above the inflation rate, lets say 35%. This will encourage savings rather than spending. It will take money out of circulation. The less Naira there is in circulation, the less Naira to bid for forex. This will strengthen the Naira.

How many people cn afforf to save. You over-talk many times. Can a man even a single man earning N150k save in this economy? If the answer is likely NO to you, how many people make that much a month?

You are using the fundamentals of economies where people spend as low as 5% of income on feeding to another where 70% on feeding is a conservative estimate. The latter sounds almost like a war or conflict situation.
What we need is true productivity and not chasing of a valueless Naira. Govt seem less concerned about improving GDP that can be exported and meet critical local needs. Things like food, shelter, and transportation are still not important to the Tinubu govt, thats why they prefer building flyovers and highways. They are going for gigantic edifices in strategic locations Nigerians will see and think "tinubu is working". What we have achieved is stability of forex or Naira value and uniformity. Maybe that of petrol slwill follow if they dont mess the former up.

CodeTemplarr:
How many people cn afforf to save. You over-talk many times. Can a man even a single man earning N150k save in this economy? If the answer is likely NO to you, how many people make that much a month?

You are using the fundamentals of economies where people spend as low as 5% of income on feeding to another where 70% on feeding is a conservative estimate. The latter sounds almost like a war or conflict situation.
What we need is true productivity and not chasing of a valueless Naira. Govt seem less concerned about improving GDP that can be exported and meet critical local needs. Things like food, shelter, and transportation are still not important to the Tinubu govt, thats why they prefer building flyovers and highways. They are going for gigantic edifices in strategic locations Nigerians will see and think "tinubu is working". What we have achieved is stability of forex or Naira value and uniformity. Maybe that of petrol slwill follow if they dont mess the former up.

I will only focus on your first paragraph.

The CBN is primarily focused on institutional investors, and not the average man on the street.

grandstar:
I will only focus on your first paragraph.

The CBN is primarily focused on institutional investors, and not the average man on the street.

....and how will institutional investors drive down rate of inflation when CBN interest rates affects them?
You know the data that puts that weak argument to bed is right in the second paragraph so did your normal thing. Will higher interest stop people from communicating or healthcare or education or feeding. Any attempt to compromise any of the above will eventually lead to another problem for the economy.

Shawarmagirl:
I sent £200 to my course mate to support her wedding schedule tomorrow, she was so happy after converting it to weak naira.

Note the £200 is just salary I got for just 20hrs job I did in 2days.

Please do everything you can to JAPA from Nigeria and thank me later. The best of Nigeria is what you are seeing now. It will keep getting worst day by day. God can not save Nigeria stop praying.

Thank you ma for the words on marble.
Please ma I want to know about how to be a caregiver in the UK.
Imagine as a graduate, worked with federal government in a teaching hospital and was sacked without being paid any salary for over a year.
We have masters holder among us o.
Person turn jobless
Best option is to japa

FavoredbyGOD:
Thank you ma for the words on marble.
Please ma I want to know about how to be a caregiver in the UK.
Imagine as a graduate, worked with federal government in a teaching hospital and was sacked without being paid any salary for over a year.
We have masters holder among us o.
Person turn jobless
Best option is to japa

DM me. or drop your number let me call you.

Shawarmagirl:
DM me. or drop your number let me call you.

Thank you so much ma

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