₦airaland Forum

Theflint1:
Another thing you're not considering is most of these data sources are data of mostly the adult population (children under 16 are around 40% of the country's population), and often far from the entire adult population even.

If 320M SIM dey and every adult is having like 3, plus the business lines It might just be 60M unique adult individuals having all these SIMs

Add 70M kids . That is likely our ball park in population

afrodoc2:
You are tall. Your dad is likely tall as well.

?

nah I'm not tall. the shortest in my family, by some distance actually I'm slightly above 5'7". my other siblings are between 6'7" and 6'2". my parents are both 5'7". me groß from my mother's side though are both 6'4" and on my father's side about 5'5".
I can't really see a pattern. it's like roll of the dice in my tree.

Ibime tears I wan drink

ChristineC:
nah I'm not tall. the shortest in my family, by some distance actually I'm slightly above 5'7". my other siblings are between 6'7" and 6'2". my parents are both 5'7". me groß from my mother's side though are both 6'4" and on my father's side about 5'5".
I can't really see a pattern. it's like roll of the dice in my tree.

You enter one chance. Pele.

Are your siblings male?

Cos your height still shows you got it from your father's side, which still follows the theory.

raumdeuter:
If 320M SIM dey and every adult is having like 3, plus the business lines It might just be 60M unique adult individuals having all these SIMs

Add 70M kids . That is likely our ball park in population

60m adults in Nigeria?

raumdeuter:
How many people do you know in Nigeria that does not have more than 1 SIM card? Some even have 4 SIM cards and we are showing just 320m SIM when everyone has 2 or more. That is actually making my point that we are about 120m

About 33% of the Nigerian population is under the age of 14 and most of them do not have SIM cards.

If we assume the average Nigerian has 2-3 SIM cards (let us say 2.5 SIM cards on the average), that will still add up to about 130m people. If you add the non-SIM card owning children, the population will be approaching 190m to 200m.

The only way Nigeria is not about 200m is if we are miraculously the only developing or African country whose population did not increase by a factor 4 to 5 from 1960.

With regards to the Northern Nigeria population figures, we can't watch multiple generations of women bearing children from age 14-15 to menopause and be shocked that their population is exploding. I participated in immunization programs in the North and i know that place has more people than you would expect.

BlueRayDick:
Maybe we are not up to 200m but I am inclined to believe the Nigerian population is closer to 200m than to 100m .

I was having a discussion with someone recently and he’s saying he doubts Alimosho is the most populous LGA in Lagos . He said he’s forced to believe Ikorodu is more populated considering the landmass and people have been moving there in recent years .

I simply told him it’s because he’s looking at things the wrong way and doesn’t even understand how densely populated Alimosho is. From Dopemu down to Egbeda, Shasha, Orisunbare at all Alimosho. Egbeda down to Ikotun, Egbe , Liasu and Idimu are all Alimosho . All those Ipaja , Ayobo, Ishefun, Command and almost getting to Abule Egba are all Alimosho . Aboru, Abesan, Mosan Okunola etc .

Now all these areas are very very densely populated . Trying to put a figure to number of communities in all these areas and the number of people living there is enough headache . In fact that’s why I can never agree with the claim that Kano has more population than Lagos .

We will never be able to ascertain the real numbers , but Nigerians are definitely way more than 100m with the way we keep giving birth in different parts of the country

Look at this wiki link that puts out population at 230M and compared it side by side with our last census
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nigerian_states_by_population

What brings growth are birth rate , migration , stability
It makes sense that some states grew in Population e.g Lagos FCT, Ogun etc because of these factors. Comparing 2006 census which we knew was also dagbo but at least we had a census to the estimates currently Lagos grew by 70%, Ogun 70% FCT by 240%, but we are having states like
But how can you tell me that Borno -60% Zamfara -70% Kebbi- 84%, Gombe 95%, Yobe -87% grew at the same rate or even higher than Lagos state despite the terrorism suffered in the last 15yrs in some of those places which affect the stability and migration factors

That is why we are getting the 230M we are claiming

afrodoc2:
60m adults in Nigeria?

Our election results which is the only thing that requires a valid ID in this country supports this. last election total votes was about 20M which meant that 1/3 of adults voted

raumdeuter:
Look at this wiki link that puts out population at 230M and compared it side by side with our last census
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nigerian_states_by_population

What brings growth are birth rate , migration , stability
It makes sense that some states grew in Population e.g Lagos FCT, Ogun etc because of these factors. Comparing 2006 census which we knew was also dagbo but at least we had a census to the estimates currently Lagos grew by 70%, Ogun 70% FCT by 240%, but we are having states like
But how can you tell me that Borno -60% Zamfara -70% Kebbi- 84%, Gombe 95%, Yobe -87% grew at the same rate or even higher than Lagos state despite the terrorism suffered in the last 15yrs in some of those places which affect the stability and migration factors

That is why we are getting the 230M we are claiming

Religion and polygamy will definitely ensure population grows in places like Borno , Kebbi and Co. As far as terrorism is concerned , people die in their thousands and not millions .

I am more inclined to believe our population has continued to increase if we look at how our resources are no longer enough to cater for our ever growing population .

It seems you underrrate the ability for us as Nigerians to procreate .

raumdeuter:
Our election results which is the only thing that requires a valid ID in this country supports this. last election total votes was about 20M which meant that 1/3 of adults voted

I don't think 1/3 of Nigerian adults voted. Maybe 10-15% of the adults i know personally voted.

We might not be 230m, but we are closer to 200m than that 120m you mentioned.

BlueRayDick:
Religion and polygamy will definitely ensure population grows in places like Borno , Kebbi and Co. As far as terrorism is concerned , people die in their thousands and not millions .

I am more inclined to believe our population has continued to increase if we look at how our resources are no longer enough to cater for our ever growing population .

It seems you underrrate the ability for us as Nigerians to procreate .

You are correct. Population increases in a Geometric Progression and resources increase in an Arithmetic Progression. This is the foundation of the Malthusian Theory, and we are now suffering the inevitable "positive" checks. We could have helped ourselves by population control in the 80s when things turned sour for the economy.

afrodoc2:
You enter one chance. Pele.

Are your siblings male?

Cos your height still shows you got it from your father's side, which still follows the theory.

four males three females. the height is actually aligned from child one in descending order until it got to me at number six, my younger sister got to 6'2" and I stayed stuck.
in fact if not for the swap between us two last pair I'd have just concluded that the quality of fertilization got tired down the line

afrodoc2:
I don't think 1/3 of Nigerian adults voted. Maybe 10-15% of the adults i know personally voted.

We might not be 230m, but we are closer to 200m than that 120m you mentioned.

I share this sentiment too. We have adults that are not even accounted for, people living under bridges.

I doubt there's any bridge in this Lagos that doesn't have people who live either on them or under them.

I remember few years back Saturday Tribune newspapers did an editorial on the thriving business of "Lagos bridge landlords" . One of their reporters did an undercover job by mixing with normal area boys to get a look into the lives of those who sleep under bridge.

From the undercover job which spanned few days at different locations ranging from Oshodi bridge to Obalende bridge to Apongbon bridge; the reporter found out that hundreds of homeless people pay to pass the night under Lagos bridges. He noted that all the agbero guys have shared the "landlordhip" of those bridges in their areas amongst themselves.

They have appointed collectors who go around very late in the night to collect rent from every occupant of the bridge. If u no pay, no sleep for u . Some of the collectors in some areas even issue ID cards to the regular tenants. When they go checking at night, once u can't produce ur ID they will know u are a newbie and u will be required to pay initial rent and ur ID will be issued few days after.

Imagine the number of bridges in Lagos and the number of homeless people sleeping on them without being accounted for in our system .

afrodoc2:
You are correct. Population increases in a Geometric Progression and resources increase in an Arithmetic Progression. This is the foundation of the Malthusian Theory, and we are now suffering the inevitable "positive" checks. We could have helped ourselves by population control in the 80s when things turned sour for the economy.

You get.

In the North for example, only the upper middle class and educated people really consider hardship and economic situation when deciding on the number of kids they intend to have.
The unlettered people will just exercise their right to marry as many wives as their religion permits and then hope God in his infinite mercies will provide for them.

afrodoc2:
About 33% of the Nigerian population is under the age of 14 and most of them do not have SIM cards.

If we assume the average Nigerian has 2-3 SIM cards (let us say 2.5 SIM cards on the average), that will still add up to about 130m people. If you add the non-SIM card owning children, the population will be approaching 190m to 200m.

The only way Nigeria is not about 200m is if we are miraculously the only developing or African country whose population did not increase by a factor 4 to 5 from 1960.

With regards to the Northern Nigeria population figures, we can't watch multiple generations of women bearing children from age 14-15 to menopause and be shocked that their population is exploding. I participated in immunization programs in the North and i know that place has more people than you would expect.

Which African country no dey dagbo am? Especially West African countries. You are assuming we are different from them, Look at their politics and see how it closely resembles ours. Or ours might even be better

On your Northern point about early marriages, Lets compare to other non Nigerian exclusively Islamic nations that do early marriages too and see how many of them have grown at the same rate

Let us even assume every Nigerian is Moslem to the extent of North Africa and get married by 14yrs, Our growth rate since 1960 still doesn't make sense and is an outlier.

1960 2024 Percentage increase
Nigeria 45M 230M 411%
Libya 1.5M 7.4M 393%
Morocco 11M 38M 245%
Egypt 27M 116M 329%
Tunisia 4.2M 12M 185%
Those are countries who are more Moslem than us where young marriages are okay yet dnt have the same population growth

Now Ghana that has a similar religious distribution to Nigeria

Ghana 1960 7M 2024 34M 392%


South Africa though they don't have the same religion as us

BlueRayDick:
Religion and polygamy will definitely ensure population grows in places like Borno , Kebbi and Co. As far as terrorism is concerned , people die in their thousands and not millions .

I am more inclined to believe our population has continued to increase if we look at how our resources are no longer enough to cater for our ever growing population .

It seems you underrrate the ability for us as Nigerians to procreate .

Dying is not the problem but mass emigration from those places and few to no immigration

raumdeuter:
Dying is not the problem but mass emigration from those places and few to no immigration

Congratulations to you, the flogging no be here.

Asiwaju dey favor you for Naija, Trump dey favor you for Yankee. Government just dey favor you everywhere.

raumdeuter:
Which African country no dey dagbo am? Especially West African countries. You are assuming we are different from them, Look at their politics and see how it closely resembles ours. Or ours might even be better

On your Northern point about early marriages, Lets compare to other non Nigerian exclusively Islamic nations that do early marriages too and see how many of them have grown at the same rate

Let us even assume every Nigerian is Moslem to the extent of North Africa and get married by 14yrs, Our growth rate since 1960 still doesn't make sense and is an outlier.

1960 2024 Percentage increase
Nigeria 45M 230M 411%
Libya 1.5M 7.4M 393%
Morocco 11M 38M 245%
Egypt 27M 116M 329%
Tunisia 4.2M 12M 185%
Those are countries who are more Moslem than us where young marriages are okay yet dnt have the same population growth

Now Ghana that has a similar religious distribution to Nigeria

Ghana 1960 7M 2024 34M 392%


South Africa though they don't have the same religion as us

Most of those North Arab Muslims are one man one wife situations, and at best two wives. It's almost like trying to advance a polygamy/early marriage argument with Yoruba Muslims.

raumdeuter:
Dying is not the problem but mass emigration from those places and few to no immigration

There's really no mass emigration like you may want to paint it. Let me give you a very simple illustration of what I've observed.

We have seen the influx of Northerners to Lagos, Ogun state and other "happening " states down south in recent times. Yes those Northerners (mostly male adults) come down south to hustle as okada riders, security guards, cobblers, laborers , lawn mowers, etc.

BUT! these guys will spend months in Lagos , go back home to farm and impregnate their young wives who will give birth and start raising the kids in the father's absence. After another season in Lagos, he will go home to harvest his farm, maybe marry another wife(if he has bountiful harvest) , impregnate the new wife and maybe the first wife is pregnant with another baby.

In few years' time, u will discover that even though the man is the only one who emigrated to Lagos; he would have successfully increased the number of people in Jigawa because he has 3 wives and 8 children in his family in Jigawa while Lagos only gained one addition.

This is why I think population in those areas will continue to grow provided the father of the house continues to eke a decent living in Lagos and continues to repatriate Lagos income back home regularly.

larride:
And until the opposition can get massive turnout of their base to come out and vote regardless of what they might think of the system, the incumbent will always win then.

People came out to vote in rivers and you saw how it turned out.....

This will linger on cos obviously votes only counts when politicians want it to not because of any turnout....

raumdeuter:
Which African country no dey dagbo am? Especially West African countries. You are assuming we are different from them, Look at their politics and see how it closely resembles ours. Or ours might even be better

On your Northern point about early marriages, Lets compare to other non Nigerian exclusively Islamic nations that do early marriages too and see how many of them have grown at the same rate

Let us even assume every Nigerian is Moslem to the extent of North Africa and get married by 14yrs, Our growth rate since 1960 still doesn't make sense and is an outlier.

1960 2024 Percentage increase
Nigeria 45M 230M 411%
Libya 1.5M 7.4M 393%
Morocco 11M 38M 245%
Egypt 27M 116M 329%
Tunisia 4.2M 12M 185%
Those are countries who are more Moslem than us where young marriages are okay yet dnt have the same population growth

Now Ghana that has a similar religious distribution to Nigeria

Ghana 1960 7M 2024 34M 392%


South Africa though they don't have the same religion as us

What is the difference between 411% and 393%.

You didn’t add other countries like Uganda and Kenya etc with about 600% increase in population.

Also I didn’t directly link the population growth in the north to just Islam. I have Egyptian friends and I have mentored Iranian, Turkish, Tunisian colleagues closely. They do not give birth at the rate that is done in the Northern part of Nigeria.

Religion is a factor but it is not the only factor. There are other cultural and social factors involved.

Theflint1:
Most of those North Arab Muslims are one man one wife situations, and at best two wives. It's almost like trying to advance a polygamy/early marriage argument with Yoruba Muslims.

Polygamy is not really problem. Its early marriage. Women are the rate determining step here. If in Polygamy you marry 4 women and they have 4 kids each. Its no different than those women marrying 4 men and having 4 kids

Theflint1:
Most of those North Arab Muslims are one man one wife situations, and at best two wives. It's almost like trying to advance a polygamy/early marriage argument with Yoruba Muslims.

THIS.

They do not practice polygamy and child manufacturing the way it is done in Northern Nigeria.

Naija’s own goes beyond just Islam and is also socio-cultural.

BlueRayDick:
There's really no mass emigration like you may want to paint it. Let me give you a very simple illustration of what I've observed.

We have seen the influx of Northerners to Lagos, Ogun state and other "happening " states down south in recent times. Yes those Northerners (mostly male adults) come down south to hustle as okada riders, security guards, cobblers, laborers , lawn mowers, etc.

BUT! these guys will spend months in Lagos , go back home to farm and impregnate their young wives who will give birth and start raising the kids in the father's absence. After another season in Lagos, he will go home to harvest his farm, maybe marry another wife(if he has bountiful harvest) , impregnate the new wife and maybe the first wife is pregnant with another baby.

In few years' time, u will discover that even though the man is the only one who emigrated to Lagos; he would have successfully increased the number of people in Jigawa because he has 3 wives and 8 children in his family in Jigawa while Lagos only gained one addition.

This is why I think population in those areas will continue to grow provided the father of the house continues to eke a decent living in Lagos and continues to repatriate Lagos income back home regularly.

You think people are not fleeing Zamfara, Kebbi Yobe Borno where terrorism is the order of the day? Or do you think people are moving into those states like the normal stable state

raumdeuter:
Polygamy is not really problem. Its early marriage. Women are the rate determining step here. If in Polygamy you marry 4 women and they have 4 kids each. Its no different than those women marrying 4 men and having 4 kids

Our West African Neighbors

Country 1960 2024 Percentage increase
Niger 3.4M 27M 694%
Benin 2.5M 14.5M 480%
Ghana 7M 34M 392%
Togo 1.6M 9.6M 500%
Senegal 3.2M 18.5M 478%
Guinea 3.5M 14.7M 320%
Mali 5.3M 24.5M 362%

afrodoc2:
What is the difference between 411% and 393%.

You didn’t add other countries like Uganda and Kenya etc with about 600% increase in population.

Also I didn’t directly link the population growth in the north to just Islam. I have Egyptian friends and I have mentored Iranian, Turkish, Tunisian colleagues closely. They do not give birth at the rate that is done in the Northern part of Nigeria.

Religion is a factor but it is not the only factor. There are other cultural and social factors involved.

What rate are they genuinely giving birth in Nigeria vs other countries. Are we telling the truth about our birth rate or just manipulating figures

I can give you 150M Nigeria which is a far cry from the 230M we dey claim

Theflint1:
Our West African Neighbors

Country 1960 2024 Percentage increase
Niger 3.4M 27M 694%
Benin 2.5M 14.5M 480%
Ghana 7M 34M 392%
Togo 1.6M 9.6M 500%
Senegal 3.2M 18.5M 478%
Guinea 3.5M 14.7M 320%
Mali 5.3M 24.5M 362%

All these are West African countries, Check the way they run their politics and compare with ours. In some Nigeria is even better. My suspicion is that most of the West African countries are doing dagbo with their population same way they do with their politics

raumdeuter:
You think people are not fleeing Zamfara, Kebbi Yobe Borno where terrorism is the order of the day? Or do you think people are moving into those states like the normal stable state

People are not fleeing the states at the rate you are projecting it to seem. Even at the height of boko haram, people didn't flee the affected state in hundreds of thousands.

You seem to forgot the vast amount of inhabited land mass these states have. What they usually do when attacks become rampant is to move to other parts of the states where attacks aren't incessant. It's just like moving from Badagry to Ikeja where security is more assured.

If people were fleeing the states like u are suggesting , how do u think we've been feeding in this country when u most of our food come from the north?

Up north female kids as young as 13 are already having babies which means on average a northern woman will birth 6-8 children in her lifetime.

Add to that lack of adherence to family planning methods, Improved healthcare over the decades that ensures your average child doesn't die from polio, measles et al.

Like you I agree our population numbers are exaggerated especially up north but my previously stated points still justifies why they have a significant number.

Terrorism like someone else rightly said kills thousands over a period of time which birth rates over a few months would easily cover.

raumdeuter:
Look at this wiki link that puts out population at 230M and compared it side by side with our last census
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nigerian_states_by_population

What brings growth are birth rate , migration , stability
It makes sense that some states grew in Population e.g Lagos FCT, Ogun etc because of these factors. Comparing 2006 census which we knew was also dagbo but at least we had a census to the estimates currently Lagos grew by 70%, Ogun 70% FCT by 240%, but we are having states like
But how can you tell me that Borno -60% Zamfara -70% Kebbi- 84%, Gombe 95%, Yobe -87% grew at the same rate or even higher than Lagos state despite the terrorism suffered in the last 15yrs in some of those places which affect the stability and migration factors

That is why we are getting the 230M we are claiming

raumdeuter:
What rate are they genuinely giving birth in Nigeria vs other countries. Are we telling the truth about our birth rate or just manipulating figures

I can give you 150M Nigeria which is a far cry from the 230M we dey claim

I am telling you I worked in hospital in the rural north and I participated in immunisation programs. You can’t manufacture fake people to be jabbed with injections.

I was seeing women with 10-12 or more children steady. One of my male health workers brought one of his wives for a check and I think she was late 30s and had over 10 children already, and the guy laughed and said he had not retired her yet.

Then when we went to immunise you enter a small compound and spend the whole afternoon there cos there are over 100 people inside the small compound that we southern corpers thought would have 20 people max.

Many of them don’t go to school. Many of the women don’t even come out of their compounds unless on a strictly regulated basis.

BlueRayDick:
People are not fleeing the states at the rate you are projecting it to seem. Even at the height of boko haram, people didn't flee the affected state in hundreds of thousands.

You seem to forgot the vast amount of inhabited land mass these states have. What they usually do when attacks become rampant is to move to other parts of the states where attacks aren't incessant. It's just like moving from Badagry to Ikeja where security is more assured.

If people were fleeing the states like u are suggesting , how do u think we've been feeding in this country when u most of our food come from the north?

Most of our food come from the middle belt actually and the farms in Borno and Yobe state have been abandoned. You cant have consistent terrorism of over a decade and not affect your population. People will move out, new people will refuse to move in

chrisooblog:
Up north female kids as young as 13 are already having babies which means on average a northern woman will birth 6-8 children in her lifetime.

Add to that lack of adherence to family planning methods, Improved healthcare over the decades that ensures your average child doesn't die from polio, measles et al.

Like you I agree our population numbers are exaggerated especially up north but my previously stated points still justifies why they have a significant number.

Terrorism like someone else rightly said kills thousands over a period of time which birth rates over a few months would easily cover.

If you say our population is exaggerated, then to what degree? When you are tying election power, amount received from National purse and other benefits to population, you can see that it will induce falsifying numbers