₦airaland Forum

AMINDA:
With which votes? Northern votes? Obi will definitely win the South and this time, a lot of Northerners that voted Tinubu in the North will now vote Atiku. In a 3-horse race, Tinubu will lose.

In a 3-horse race, ebilokan will win against a divided opposition, like he did easily last election.

The five SE states that EFFECTIVELY gave their tribal 100% votes to APC’s ebilokan, will do it again.

They all need to close their ranks and stay together with the strongest possible candidate to win. This was how Buhari and APC won in 2015.

jameshankss:
Arguing that Obi’s presidential bid would only work in favour of Tinubu, Soludo said, “Indeed, if I were Asiwaju Tinubu, I would even give Peter Obi money as someone heading one of the departments of his campaign, because Obi is making Tinubu’s pathway to victory much easier by indirectly pulling down PDP.”

Obi, according to Soludo, would only deplete the votes of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and pave the path for an APC victory.

He stated, “The current fleeting frenzy, if not checked, will cost Ndigbo dearly for years. The South-east has the lowest number of votes of any region, but it is also the only region where the presidential race might be a four-way race (it is a two-way race in the other five regions) thereby, ensuring that our votes won’t count in the making of the next president of Nigeria.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/11/15/soludo-i-wont-succumb-to-bullies-obi-knows-he-cant-win/

AMINDA:
The governors are beginning to develop cold feet having gauged the mood of Nigerians. Nigerians could be many things but certainly not cowards. Tinubu cannot strong-arm Nigerians to vote him by merely trying to make the country a one-party state. The people will rather find any other alternative than to be cowered to vote Tinubu. Governors like Sheriff only decamped to neutralize Omo-Agege and provide soft-landing for Okowa, nothing more. Tinubu will struggle to build momentum for his re-election, especially in the North. His lacklustre reception in Katsina points to that. He has also lost vocal Northerners like Elrufai that rallied the North for him in 2023.

By 2027, Obi will best Tinubu in the South no matter the number of Southern governors that decamp to the APC. With a strong Northern Vice, Obi also has the potential to do well in the North. He will get the votes of Northerners who believe that 2027 is still the turn of the South. Tinubu isn't the face of the Southern candidacy, Obi is.

On the other hand, Atiku will contest with an equally popular Vice from the Southsouth and will sweep the Northeast and much of the Northwest votes. This will be even worse if Tinubu goes ahead to replace Shettima with Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso on the other hand, will lose the support of most of his supporters because Northerners are genuinely angry with the Tinubu hunger administration. At best, he can only contribute 1 million votes to Tinubu and only in Kano. Tinubu still has a deficit of 4.6 million potential Northern votes to make up for. Muslim-muslim ticket was his only saving grace in 2023 but it won't offer any advantage in 2027. Unlike previous elections that were largely driven by region and religion, 2027 will be driven by performance and Tinubu's maladministration puts him at a disadvantage.

You try in your analysis. Let's hope for the best because this Thiefn00bu we know is a master forger and an election rigger.

Atiku should swallow the humble pie.

No southerner no matter the persuasion will vote ATIKU in 2027.

I can bet my PFA ( Pension Fund Account) and life that he wouldn't get up to 20,000 votes cumulatively in the whole southern Nigeria.

Why waste resources for a dead project.

Obi for now is the only candidate who currently has the gravitas and followership of both the urban youth in the south & south easterners currently no Jupiter can change his 6m sure votes including more.

Atiku should be strategic in 2027 so he can get a good footing any way it swings.

WhizdomXX:
If Obi and Atiku contests separately, Tinubu wins again. QED.

Let them move to APC, Wike will lose his relevance to them and Tinubu will no longer have a great need for him.

By then he would have dribbled himself out of political relevance.

Believe not what politicians say.

Image123:
You don't know politics. The only thing that gave Obi votes outside the South East was that people were voting against APC, not voting for Obi. This time, it won't happen. There's no Emefiele or APC policies working against the party, no Muslim muslim fear, no religious or tribal manipulation outside the south east. Governors are VERY happy with Tinubu. Northerners will not vote any other Southerner as they want to be in power 2031. Except God, it's done and dusted for Tinubu the Jagaban's victory. It is what it is.

Of course, the Governors are very happy. They now get more allocation to the detriment of the masses. Tinubu is taxing the poor just to cater to the elites. But how many of these governors can deliver their states to Tinubu? How many delivered their states in 2023?

What has changed between 2023 and now that will make Nigerians now vote APC? Nigerians were better off in 2023. In 2023, I can tell you for free that a lot of Northerners genuinely wanted power to shift to the South, hence why Tinubu got 5.6m votes but Tinubu has turned out to be the bad Southern choice. Northerners will now split their votes between Atiku (their own son) and Obi (those who still feel power should remain in the South).

Heads or tail, voting against Tinubu will not stop power from heading to the North in 2031. Tinubu cannot prevent that. Why should the North wait till 2031 when they have the leverage to take it now? Tinubu did not win the South, the North made him President and in a 3-horse race, he will now lose, unlike 2023.

Either defection or not. Changing of ruling government or not , which one will make Nigeria better

I remember how people were shouting we want change during Jonathan., this is the change we get.

Bishop Mbaka, only God knows how to judge you, with your outbursts against Jonathan, talking as if he saw vision Nigeria will be better under APC.

Same situation again.

If they like let the whole governor defect to APC,
It is the citizens that will vote in 2027
36 states governor and vice = 72
Against 200million Nigerians on that day

AMINDA:
Of course, the Governors are very happy. They now get more allocation to the detriment of the masses. Tinubu is taxing the poor just to cater to the elites. But how many of these governors can deliver their states to Tinubu? How many delivered their states in 2023?

What has changed between 2023 and now that will make Nigerians now vote APC? Nigerians were better off in 2023. In 2023, I can tell you for free that a lot of Northerners genuinely wanted power to shift to the South, hence why Tinubu got 5.6m votes but Tinubu has turned out to be the bad Southern choice. Northerners will now split their votes between Atiku (their own son) and Obi (those who still feel power should remain in the South).

Heads or tail, voting against Tinubu will not stop power from heading to the North in 2031. Tinubu cannot prevent that. Why should the North wait till 2031 when they have the leverage to take it now? Tinubu did not win the South, the North made him President and in a 3-horse race, he will now lose, unlike 2023.

OK sir/ma.

anonimi:
In a 3-horse race, ebilokan will win against a divided opposition, like he did easily last election.

The five SE states that EFFECTIVELY gave their tribal 100% votes to APC’s ebilokan, will do it again.

They all need to close their ranks and stay together with the strongest possible candidate to win. This was how Buhari and APC won in 2015.

qualifying the votes of the SE as "tribal" is a shameful thing that someone who claims to be educated shouldn't be saying

Who cares

If all of dem like make dem decamp! Nigerians will decide president come 2027…

WhizdomXX:
If Obi and Atiku contests separately, Tinubu wins again. QED.

That's assuming Tinubu did well
You don't understand the situation . Now it is anybody but Tinubu
Except he rigs ,he has dealt with Nigerians, that they have nothing to consider him on,he has squandered the little goodwill he had

RodgersAkpafu:
qualifying the votes of the SE as "tribal" is a shameful thing that someone who claims to be educated shouldn't be saying

What does comparative analysis across the three main regions show?

Is that not how educated people look at things?

Apc will have serious problem after the election. Too Many lions and tigers in one party.

Patojargz:
If all of dem like make dem decamp! Nigerians will decide president come 2027…

What Nigerians?
The 10% of our population who are tribal voters, and whose votes are easily bought with stomach infrastructure?

How much work have you been doing to increase voter participation while reducing tribalism and stomach infrastructure in our politics?

Racoon:
The ranking placed Nigeria in 186th position, only after Haiti, among 187 countries of the world. Nigeria is the second country in the world with the lowest voter turnout, worse than war-ravaged Afghanistan and Libya, a new ranking by Picodi has shown.

The ranking placed Nigeria in 186th position, only after Haiti, among 187 countries of the world. Nigeria also ranked worst in Africa. Nigeria’s low voter turnout

PREMIUM TIMES had reported how Nigeria recorded a new low in voter turnout during the last general elections. With a national turnout of 29 per cent, a Premium Times analysis showed that the last election had the lowest participation rate in the country’s six decades of independence.

It further revealed that of the 93.4 million registered voters this year, 87.2 million people collected their Permanent Voters Card and the total number of actual voters on election day was only 24.9 million..The winner of the election, Bola Tinubu, had less than nine million votes, roughly 10 per cent of the total eligible voters.

Another analysis by this newspaper revealed that all the 18 candidates in Nigeria’s February elections received only 27.55 per cent of the total eligible votes.

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/634921-voter-turnout-nigeria-ranks-worlds-second-worst-nation-report.html?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter

Tflex01:
Lol if they contest together, Tinubu still wins.

😂

I was laughing when people are saying Tinubu will 2027 general election

Forget about party everyone are fighting to hold a position.

helinues:
No one will see the clear road and enter bush now

This dude failed to switch account

anonimi:
What does comparative analysis across the three main regions show?

Is that not how educated people look at things?

What educated people do is to check the trend since 1999.
Every election since 99 have seen the south east vote >90% for one candidate

And guess what
The winner of that vote in the last 6 elections have come from 5 out of the 6 geopolitical zones

GEJ - SS
OBJ - SW
Yaradua - NW
Atiku - NE
Obi - SE

It is akin to how the black folk and Jews vote in America

But no, it is a "tribal vote"

Una no serious for that shytehole se

ceejay80s:
If they like let the whole governor defect to APC,
It is the citizens that will vote in 2027
36 states governor and vice = 72
Against 200million Nigerians on that day

You're wrong, those guys won't count any vote, they've the score sheet already.

I hope we won't see last minute defections later. Any concession then by APC will harm the party.

RodgersAkpafu:
What educated people do is to check the trend since 1999.
Every election since 99 have seen the south east vote >90% for one candidate

And guess what
The winner of that vote in the last 6 elections have come from 5 out of the 6 geopolitical zones

GEJ - SS
OBJ - SW
Yaradua - NW
Atiku - NE
Obi - SE

It is akin to how the black folk and Jews vote in America

But no, it is a "tribal vote"

Una no serious for that shytehole se

Why did you forget to name the SE candidate for any of the main parties since 1999 to compete for the tribal votes in the five SE states

anonimi:
Why did you forget to name the SE candidate for any of the main parties since 1999 to compete for the tribal votes in the five SE states

Ojukwu ran and failed in 2003
How about that ?
Okorocha also ran and failed
Buhari chose igbo men twice as his VP and still failed

If the south east were tribalistic voters as u claim, they would have voted buhari because a SE as VP is closer to power than an OBJ from the SW and Atiku from NE


Not everyone is an emilokan induced dunderhesd voter, like those who voted buhari because of osinbajo
Know that

Just saying 😌

I am not surprised. Nigeria is running on a one party system

Tflex01:
Lol if they contest together, Tinubu still wins.

😂

Taaaaah!

See this one. You are trying to console yourself. You all are in great fear. You know that if they ever agree to contest together against Tinubu, Otilo

Those defectors from Delta state are politicians without political conviction. Worse, a VP candidate of a political party defecting to the ruling party is like a baby politician who didn't understand the implications of what he did. Okowa has ended his political career. He's not different from his onetime principal Atiku Abubakar. Since Atiku defected from PDP to another political party, it has been a no win for him in presidential elections. If Atiku contests again in 2027, he will still lose.

hatchy:
Taaaaah!

See this one. You are trying to console yourself. You all are in great fear. You know that if they ever agree to contest together against Tinubu, Otilo

I sincerely wish and pray they have a joint ticket. 😂

You guys don't even know Tinubu, yet you hate him so much.

WhizdomXX:
If Obi and Atiku contests separately, Tinubu wins again. QED.

Tinubu and Atiku will share the votes of ethno-religious bigots. That enables Obi to win in a free and fair election.

I know PBAT will not try to Rig because it's gonna be super glaring that the result will be rigged.

Only the privileged elite may enjoy this PBAT Government since inception, majority of Nigerians despise Tinubu.









.

surgical:
That's assuming Tinubu did well
You don't understand the situation . Now it is anybody but Tinubu
Except he rigs ,he has dealt with Nigerians, that they have nothing to consider him on,he has squandered the little goodwill he had

Their staying put or running for a cover wouldn't in any ways, put food on my table, roof on my head, nor paying my children tuitions.

Shikenna!

Ahead of the release of fbi files, they need a one party state without any opposition.