₦airaland Forum

@semid4lyfe please unblock my last post if it gets hidden as expected.

LordAdam16:
I guess I'm jaded because Obidients have a troubling track record.
Obi was to be a protest ticket in 2023; like the Green ticket in the US. If you wanted to win, you had to pick either Tinubu (continuation) or Atiku (take a different path).
But then we had the Obidient groundswell and the rest is history.

So perhaps, they're been coy. That's probable.
But that narrative is fuel for the not insignificant bloc in the Obidient movement who are Obi maximalists.
They WILL sit out an election with Atiku/Obi on the ballot and encourage others to do the same.

Depending on their efficacy, that could become a real issue that'll potentially sink an Atiku-Obi coalition.
It is a given that Tinubu will exploit the rift.
If by late 2026, there are doubts that the coalition can clear the 10m bar, no astute politico will stake their career on the ticket.
We'll know the result weeks before election day.

-Lord

I am a regular viewer of this thread but rarely comment but I feel the need to today just to say you are right and absolutely spot on. I am an igbo man who is a staunch Atiku supporter and everything you said here is true. We igbos are very stubborn and proud and we unfortunately make up the majority of this idiotic obidient movement. A lot of us will absolutely sit the election out in protest. Some will even go out and vote Tinubu in protest--I know how we think. There are ways to fix it though. Waziri needs to understand that Obi alone will not be enough. He needs to engage more igbo politicians at the grassroot level--people like Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe. He has been APGA for years and is there for the taking. He is a thorough bred grassroot politician and loved by many in grassroots across the East. The next thing he needs to do is seek the support of more young igbos who aggressively campaign for him on social media and mainstream media. These do not need to be people who are already seasoned politicians. Infact, the less political pedigree they have, the better. He needs young Igbo technocrats who promote him relentlessly. Like we saw in 2023, social media cannot be taken for granted in Nigerian politics again. Everytime I go on social media, the ONLY (or overwhelming majority of) people promoting Waziri are Hausa and Fulani people. This is not a good thing and big problem especially in a time when the country feels like it's the turn of the south. Waziri comes with a lot of baggage--you don't stay 30 years in politics and not have a lot of baggage. He needs young southerners with pedigree in technocracy to go all out for him and change the way people perceive him similar to what Tinubu and co did for Buhari leading to the 2015 election. The idea he is another fulani agenda that needs Obi and igbo votes for a power grab needs to change. It is doable but it will take work. If he thinks Obi alone will be enough, he will receive a shocker at the polls.

TemporaryHansel:
It's so simple, really. The Obidients will always be out here playing their emotional politics while the rest of us deal with reality. We scream about how Tinubu’s been wrecking the country, but then when we’re handed a golden opportunity to actually boot him from that seat, y’all trip over your own feet. Classic move. Honestly, at this point, calling them pseudo Tinubu supporters is generous. Obi running solo in 2023 practically gift-wrapped Tinubu’s victory, and if he pulls the same stunt in 2027, it’s safe to say he's not just a bad candidate – he's a paid agent. Both him and his followers? They’re basically undercover operatives planted by Tinubu to make sure he waltz into the presidency unopposed.

[color=royalblue]Why did Atiku drop Obi and pick Okowa?

Why not start from there? Is it not possible he is also working for Tinubu?[/color]

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Why did Atiku drop Obi and pick Okowa?

Why not start from there? Is it not possible he is also working for Tinubu?[/color]

Obi left PDP before Atiku even won the ticket. Abi shey Atiku under PDP will pick VP wey dey LP ni?

raumdeuter:
Obi left PDP before Atiku even won the ticket. Abi shey Atiku under PDP will pick VP wey dey LP ni?

[color=royalblue] Something wey all of us know say na Okowa dem wan give?

PDP already said they were zoning the VP to SS.

How come this golden bullet was discarded by Waziri the Starboy?[/color]

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Why did Atiku drop Obi and pick Okowa?

Why not start from there? Is it not possible he is also working for Tinubu?[/color]

Izzou my brother,

Atiku was told by the PDP after he won the ticket that to get their support he needs to run with a SS governor. They gave him a choice of Wike/Okowa/Udom and he picked Okowa. Hindsight is 20/20. Everyone now thinks he should have insisted on Obi but Obi was not as popular during the PDP primaries as he is today. He gained a lot of popularity after that primary. At the time, it made sense for Atiku to placate the PDP by running with one of the 3 SS governors they asked him to run with. That was the politically sensible things to do. Those 3 governors were sitting governors of oil rich states. You need money to win elections. The dynamics at the time have changed to make Obi a necessity now. Atiku not running with Obi was not personal (and Obi knows this), it was the politically necessary thing to do.

MonsieurCoder:
Izzou my brother,

Atiku was told by the PDP after he won the ticket that to get their support he needs to run with a SS governor. They gave him a choice of Wike/Okowa/Udom and he picked Okowa. Hindsight is 20/20. Everyone now thinks he should have insisted on Obi but Obi was not as popular during the PDP primaries as he is today. He gained a lot of popularity after that primary. At the time, it made sense for Atiku to placate the PDP by running with one of the 3 SS governors they asked him to run with. That was the politically sensible things to do. Those 3 governors were sitting governors of oil rich states. You need money to win elections. The dynamics at the time have changed to make Obi a necessity now. Atiku not running with Obi was not personal (and Obi knows this), it was the politically necessary thing to do.

[color=royalblue]Thank you for the honesty

That is why I think anyone blaming Obi for Atiku's 2023 stinker should go and see a doctor

Obi was absolutely nothing before the election. Even on this thread, some people believed Kwankwaso would score better than him

If Kwankwaso knew that Obi would hit that high, he would have conceded to be VP.

You cannot be blaming Obi for 2023, when he was obviously nothing to the election. That's hypocrisy. Instead of addressing how a whole Atiku has fallen, they blame a man who obviously wasn't significant compared to the others.

That's in the past. Let's see what the coalition looks like.[/color]

2027 never reach , yet catarrh don full everywhere from the Atikulate camp over fear of another impending election loss

If and when he eventually loses his last presidential bid in his 80's, only God knows who will console the principal and his subjects .

BlueRayDick:
2027 never reach , yet catarrh don full everywhere from the Atikulate camp over fear of another impending election loss

If and when he eventually loses his last presidential bid in his 80's, only God knows who will console the principal and his subjects .

[color=royalblue]My own concern is that the PDP bloc that Atiku is supposed to bring into the coalition, is more scattered than ever

The Southern side is saying a big NO to him. NO in Caps Lock.
[/color]

izzou:
[color=royalblue]My own concern is that the PDP bloc that Atiku is supposed to bring into the coalition, is more scattered than ever

The Southern side is saying a big NO to him. NO in Caps Lock.
[/color]

Atiku does not need the "PDP bloc" to win. Atiku needs to win the North and he definitely has the votes to do that even without PDP. His problem is he does not have the votes in the South to consolidate his win. This is what Tinubu is working very hard to make sure he doesn't get. It's not a coincidence that Tinubus entire strategy has been getting endorsements from Southern politicians and traditional rulers. If Atiku cannot pull heavy votes from SS, SE and Lagos then he wont be president and Tinubu know this. He can't beat Atiku in the north but can make sure he gets little or nothing in the south. Obi refusing to be his VP and running again means Atiku will lose again. Even with Obi as VP it is going to be very tough to sell a Fulani man in the East.

MonsieurCoder:
Atiku does not need the "PDP bloc" to win. Atiku needs to win the North and he definitely has the votes to do that even without PDP. His problem is he does not have the votes in the South to consolidate his win. This is what Tinubu is working very hard to make sure he doesn't get. It's not a coincidence that Tinubus entire strategy has been getting endorsements from Southern politicians and traditional rulers. If Atiku cannot pull heavy votes from SS, SE and Lagos then he wont be president and Tinubu know this. He can't beat Atiku in the north but can make sure he gets little or nothing in the south. Obi refusing to be his VP and running again means Atiku will lose again. Even with Obi as VP it is going to be very tough to sell a Fulani man in the East.

[color=royalblue]The total number of votes in the North only[/color]

North Total (19 states + FCT)
1. APC - 5,598,686 (7). (38.98%)
2. LP - 2,080,866 (2)+FCT. (14.49%)
3. NNPP - 1,454,649 (1). (10.13%)
4. PDP - 5,229,473 (9). (36.41%)

[color=royalblue]If you really think Atiku has any North on lockdown, think again. With Governors and Senators at his disposal, he still didn't win APC, talk more of convincingly [/color]

izzou:
[color=royalblue]My own concern is that the PDP bloc that Atiku is supposed to bring into the coalition, is more scattered than ever

The Southern side is saying a big NO to him. NO in Caps Lock.
[/color]

Leave them let them be vexing for the wrong set of people.

The Atiku they are trying to force down our throat has not even learnt from his mistake in the last election. There is no indication that he has set out to mend fences particularly with some of the PDP governors and party big wigs that fell out with him in the run off to the 2023 elections. People like Seyi Makinde are there, there is no indication that Atiku has reached out to them. The same arrogancy his supporters are displaying is what he himself is displaying and will most likely be his end.

At least everyone knew Obi didn't have a strong foothold in the north which affected his showing in the northern votes. That same Obi has been going all around the country; especially the north donating , constructing boreholes and trying to touch the lives of the poor people in their numbers. Beyond occasional public commentary on Tinubu's government , what step has Atiku taken to expand his voting bloc?

The only solution that comes to his mind is forcefully convert Obi supporters to vote for him while not even minding some of his own support base that have since left him. They are not looking at PDP governors who are dumping the party and carrying the full elected officials in the states to join body.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]The total number of votes in the North only[/color]



[color=royalblue]If you really think Atiku has any North on lockdown, think again. With Governors and Senators at his disposal, he still didn't win APC, talk more of convincingly [/color]

Yah. I was referring to core/muslim North (NW and NE) in my earlier post, when you factor in the christian North votes (NC and part of NE) which Atiku lost to LP then it is clear what happened here. Obi din't only take alot of "would be" Atikus vote in the south he ate up basically all of the "would be" christian North votes who refused to vote another fulani muslim man or a muslim-muslim ticket.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Thank you for the honesty

That is why I think anyone blaming Obi for Atiku's 2023 stinker should go and see a doctor

Obi was absolutely nothing before the election. Even on this thread, [b]some people [/b]believed Kwankwaso would score better than him

If Kwankwaso knew that Obi would hit that high, he would have conceded to be VP.

You cannot be blaming Obi for 2023, when he was obviously nothing to the election. That's hypocrisy. Instead of addressing how a whole Atiku has fallen, they blame a man who obviously wasn't significant compared to the others.

That's in the past. Let's see what the coalition looks like.[/color]

why are you referring to yourself in the third person

MonsieurCoder:
Yah. I was referring to core/muslim North (NW and NE) in my earlier post, when you factor in the christian North votes (NC and part of NE) which Atiku lost to LP then it is clear what happened here. Obi din't only take alot of "would be" Atikus vote in the south he ate up basically all of the "would be" christian North votes who refused to vote another fulani muslim man or a muslim-muslim ticket.

[color=royalblue]Let me show you NW and NE results. Like I said, you guys are really overestimating Atiku in the North. That ship is sailing [/color]

North-West (7 states)

1. APC - 2,652,235 (2). (40.18%)
2. LP - 350,182 (0). (5.31%)
3. NNPP - 1,268,250 (1). (19.22%)
4. PDP - 2,329,540 (4). (35.30%)
Total - 6,600,207 (4 main parties only)

North-East (6 states)

1. APC - 1,185,458 (1). (35.23%)
2. LP - 315,107 (0). (9.37%)
3. NNPP - 126,343. (0). (3.76%)
4. PDP - 1,737,846 (5). (51.65%)
Total - 3,364,754 (4 main parties only)

[color=royalblue]So what exactly is this lockdown that Atiku has on the NW and NE?

We never even start, Kaduna, part of Kano and Kebbi don swear oath for Tinubu, and Atiku has the North on lockdown?

Ehn, Nwanne?[/color]

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Let me show you NW and NE results. Like I said, you guys are really overestimating Atiku in the North. That ship is sailing [/color]





[color=royalblue]So what exactly is this lockdown that Atiku has on the NW and NE?

We never even start, Kaduna, part of Kano and Kebbi don swear oath for Tinubu, and Atiku has the North on lockdown?

Ehn, Nwanne?[/color]

APC will literally write results in Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi and Borno that are currently experiencing Insurgency/banditry crisis

History will not forgive Peter Obi and his supporters for bringing this calamitous regime on us.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Let me show you NW and NE results. Like I said, you guys are really overestimating Atiku in the North. That ship is sailing [/color]





[color=royalblue]So what exactly is this lockdown that Atiku has on the NW and NE?

We never even start, Kaduna, part of Kano and Kebbi don swear oath for Tinubu, and Atiku has the North on lockdown?

Ehn, Nwanne?[/color]

I never used the word lockdown anywhere. I am sure there are naive people who do but Atiku does not have North on lockdown but he will beat Tinubu in the North. Going by what you posted here, despite losing over 300k christian votes to LP, Atiku still won the core north. Will it be a sweeping win? No. That is exactly why I said he needs to win the SS/SE and be at parity with Tinubu in Lagos to win. Buhari had the north on lockdown and could afford to lose SS, SE and still win. Atiku doesn't have that luxury. He needs win the SS and SE and come very close in Lagos to win. If he can't achieve that, he will lose.

raumdeuter:
Obi left PDP before Atiku even won the ticket. Abi shey Atiku under PDP will pick VP wey dey LP ni?

I just shock. Obi left the party before the presidential primary. He knew he can't win the primary and his supporters were making him feel it's either president or nothing so he left the party.
How exactly was Atiku going to make him VP when he wasn't a member of the party?

MonsieurCoder:
I never used the word lockdown anywhere. I am sure there are naive people who do but Atiku does not have North on lockdown but he will beat Tinubu in the North. Going by what you posted here, despite losing over 300k christian votes to LP, Atiku still won the core north. Will it be a sweeping win? No. That is exactly why I said he needs to win the SS/SE and be at parity with Tinubu in Lagos to win. Buhari had the north on lockdown and could afford to lose SS, SE and still win. Atiku doesn't have that luxury. He needs win the SS and SE and come very close in Lagos to win. If he can't achieve that, he will lose.

[color=royalblue]I know a coalition is needed. That's the only way.

My point is why you and I agree that Obi would most likely top the entire South, we cannot say the same for Atiku up north.

His supporters should begin to question his political value.

If the coalition happens and loses, it may most likely be because Atiku didn't cement his place up north.[/color]

TemporaryHansel:
I just shock. Obi left the party before the presidential primary. He knew he can't win the primary and his supporters were making him feel it's either president or nothing so he left the party.
How exactly was Atiku going to make him VP when he wasn't a member of the party?

[color=royalblue]Stop lying to yourself.

A fellow Atiku supporter has educated you already.

No be only left, na right. [/color]

izzou:
[color=royalblue]My own concern is that the PDP bloc that Atiku is supposed to bring into the coalition, is more scattered than ever

The Southern side is saying a big NO to him. NO in Caps Lock.
[/color]

There is nothing like PDP bloc since 2023 that Wike scattered it, what he is brining is Northern votes which is like 6-8m, he needs an ally that can give him another 4m from the South and Obi is the closest to that

TemporaryHansel:
History will not forgive Peter Obi and his supporters for bringing this calamitous regime on us.

So you supported a Northerner, who allegedly was one of those leaders that wrecked the economy, to continue after Buhari's unfortunate terms.

Americans think it will not reach them , keep rewarding terrorist.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Stop lying to yourself.

A fellow Atiku supporter has educated you already.

No be only left, na right. [/color]

As expected from a Tinubu supporter. The only difference between you and people like oasisx is that they're bold enough to admit they support Tinubu.

BlueRayDick:
APC will literally write results in Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi and Borno that are currently experiencing Insurgency/banditry crisis

[color=royalblue]It is how everybody is putting pressure on other candidates for the coalition, and exonerating Atiku that's funny

Even Tinubu dey run kitikata, dey find endorsement

Atiku be like Pikin wey get ball, and e must play first set

Instead of him to be unifying the North, e dey Dubai dey wait for coalition announcement [/color]

izzou:
[color=royalblue]The total number of votes in the North only[/color]



[color=royalblue]If you really think Atiku has any North on lockdown, think again. With Governors and Senators at his disposal, he still didn't win APC, talk more of convincingly [/color]

Your North is including North central, Places like Kwara Benue Plateau Kogi Nasarawa are only North in name. I am sure someone from Benue, Kogi Kwara will also be calling some people North

When people mention North is mainly NE and NW

raumdeuter:
There is nothing like PDP bloc since 2023 that Wike scattered it, what he is brining is Northern votes which is like 6-8m, he needs an ally that can give him another 4m from the South and Obi is the closest to that

[color=royalblue]No be only 6 million, na 60 million.

[/color]

raumdeuter:
Your North is including North central, Places like Kwara Benue Plateau Kogi Nasarawa are only North in name. I am sure someone from Benue, Kogi Kwara will also be calling some people North

When people mention North is mainly NE and NW

[color=royalblue]I have broken it down.

Oya, come back with another explanation [/color]

airmark:
So you supported a Northerner, who allegedly was one of those leaders that wrecked the economy, to continue after Buhari's unfortunate terms.

It's funny seeing you label buhari regime as "unfortunate", meanwhile you used to defend his administration back to back here. Continue.

TemporaryHansel:
As expected from a Tinubu supporter. The only difference between you and people like oasisx is that they're bold enough to admit they support Tinubu.

[color=royalblue]Your Okowa that you supported has gone to lick Tinubu's feet.

How are we sure it was not your party's plan?

Atiku at day, Tinubu at night.[/color]

MonsieurCoder:
I never used the word lockdown anywhere. I am sure there are naive people who do but Atiku does not have North on lockdown but he will beat Tinubu in the North. Going by what you posted here, despite losing over 300k christian votes to LP, Atiku still won the core north. Will it be a sweeping win? No. That is exactly why I said he needs to win the SS/SE and be at parity with Tinubu in Lagos to win. Buhari had the north on lockdown and could afford to lose SS, SE and still win. Atiku doesn't have that luxury. He needs win the SS and SE and come very close in Lagos to win. If he can't achieve that, he will lose.

Its simple electoral maths

If Atiku beats Tinubu in the North, he needs to match Tinubus results in the South. Which politiian stands a better chance of winning, matching or at least getting close to Tinubus results in the south

that is where Obi comes in