₦airaland Forum

raumdeuter:
Its simple electoral maths

If Atiku beats Tinubu in the North, he needs to match Tinubus results in the South. Which politiian stands a better chance of winning, matching or at least getting close to Tinubus results in the south

that is where Obi comes in

[color=royalblue]If to say - Timaya

If he doesn't, nko?[/color]

izzou:
[color=royalblue]No be only 6 million, na 60 million.

[/color]

Na you post this before. This is Atiku getting 5.2m despite Obi peeling away the NC PDP votes from him

North Total (19 states + FCT)
1. APC - 5,598,686 (7). (38.98%)
2. LP - 2,080,866 (2)+FCT. (14.49%)
3. NNPP - 1,454,649 (1). (10.13%)
4. PDP - 5,229,473 (9). (36.41%)

izzou:
[color=royalblue]I know a coalition is needed. That's the only way.

My point is why you and I agree that Obi would most likely top the entire South, we cannot say the same for Atiku up north.

His supporters should begin to question his political value.

If the coalition happens and loses, it may most likely be because Atiku didn't cement his place up north.[/color]

You are somewhat right. The coalition can fail because Atiku underperforms in the North (declining popularity in the North) or in the South (voter apathy despite Obi). However, North has more votes than the south. In politics you play your best hand, always. It's also easier to convince southerners to vote Atiku than it is to convince the North to vote Obi.

raumdeuter asked you guys a question and no one answered. Which do you think is easier to sell to an average northener in 2027?

Atiku/Obi

Obi/El rufai

Obi/Kwankwanso

Obi/anyone

There in lies your answer.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Your Okowa that you supported has gone to lick Tinubu's feet.

How are we sure it was not your party's plan?

Atiku at day, Tinubu at night.[/color]

Another angul.. AA fit even endorse BAT in 2027. After all na only four years he remain for BAT.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]I have broken it down.

Oya, come back with another explanation [/color]

Your breakdown shows Atiku got 5.2m despite Obi taking away NC votes

People really suffer for obidients hand that year. They declared fatwa on anybody that didn't support Obi. Only for obi to be flogged mercilessly at the polls.

raumdeuter:
Na you post this before. This is Atiku getting 5.2m despite Obi peeling away the NC PDP votes from him

[color=royalblue]When he had Governors and Senators..

Today, not one PDP Governor is identifying with him, but let us believe he will hit 8 million

Playset thou, my Lord? [/color]

raumdeuter:
Its simple electoral maths

If Atiku beats Tinubu in the North, he needs to match Tinubus results in the South. Which politiian stands a better chance of winning, matching or at least getting close to Tinubus results in the south

that is where Obi comes in

It is simple. Goodluck explaining this simple maths to the average obidient.

MonsieurCoder:
You are somewhat right. The coalition can fail because Atiku underperforms in the North (declining popularity in the North) or in the South (voter apathy despite Obi). However, North has more votes than the south. In politics you play your best hand, always. It's also easier to convince southerners to vote Atiku than it is to convince the North to vote Obi.

raumdeuter asked you guys a question and no one answered. Which do you think is easier to sell to an average northener in 2027?

Atiku/Obi

Obi/El rufai

Obi/Kwankwanso

Obi/anyone

There in lies your answer.

They keep repeating the same mistake they made before. Emotions and politics can't mix.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]If to say - Timaya

If he doesn't, nko?[/color]

He beat Tinubu in NE/NW before Obi destroyed his chances in the NC and the South

izzou:
[color=royalblue]It is how everybody is putting pressure on other candidates for the coalition, and exonerating Atiku that's funny

Even Tinubu dey run kitikata, dey find endorsement

Atiku be like Pikin wey get ball, and e must play first set

Instead of him to be unifying the North, e dey Dubai dey wait for coalition announcement [/color]

Na coping mechanism na. Blame every other person apart from the Dubai-based Alhaji.
Somebody that has been failing for over 30 years, dem say na Obi and his supporters make him lose.

He Don contest against northerner he lose, je contest against southerner he lose.

Make dem no questuon his political value, make dem dey look for who to blame when he loses in 2027 again.

People are not putting in to consideration the dynamic of 2023 election with regard to religion, I am very sure the influence would decrease in 2027.

If Tinubu won election in 2023 despite all internal crisis he experienced, what of now that his destiny is in his hand

izzou:
[color=royalblue]When he had Governors and Senators..

Today, not one PDP Governor is identifying with him, but let us believe he will hit 8 million

Playset thou, my Lord? [/color]

Governors and senators in the North will identify with Atiku when the time is right. It is too early to play those cards against an incumbent. Who do you think a Northern politician will prefer to campaign with in the North? Atiku or Tinubu?

OkpaNsukkaisBae:
Another angul.. AA fit even endorse BAT in 2027. After all na only four years he remain for BAT.

Then he will contest to be president when he is 85 years old. He will b Nigeria's Paul Biya

raumdeuter:
He beat Tinubu in NE/NW before Obi destroyed his chances in the NC and the South

Tinubu suppose put obi for payroll till he go die because without obi, he would've never smelled that seat. Make he dey call obi every morning for job well done.

MonsieurCoder:
You are somewhat right. The coalition can fail because Atiku underperforms in the North (declining popularity in the North) or in the South (voter apathy despite Obi). However, North has more votes than the south. In politics you play your best hand, always. It's also easier to convince southerners to vote Atiku than it is to convince the North to vote Obi.
ramdeuter asked you guys a question and no one answered. Which do you think is easier to sell to an average northener in 2027?

Atiku/Obi

Obi/El rufai

Obi/Kwankwanso

Obi/anyone

There in lies your answer.

Simple. Politics is not emotion is simple Maths

izzou:
[color=royalblue]When he had Governors and Senators..

Today, not one PDP Governor is identifying with him, but let us believe he will hit 8 million

Playset thou, my Lord? [/color]

Which governor did he have in 2023? The G5 that openly campaigned against him?

MonsieurCoder:
It is simple. Goodluck explaining this simple maths to the average obidient.

Welcome here. Dem don almost beat me here many times on this thread when I try to analyze these simple things to them

MonsieurCoder:
Governors and senators in the North will identify with Atiku when the time is right. It is too early to play those cards against an incumbent. Who do you think a Northern politician will prefer to campaign with in the North? Atiku or Tinubu?

[color=royalblue]Let me use Kwankwaso as an example..

Between Atiku and Tinubu

With Tinubu winning in 2027, Kwankwaso has a chance of contesting for President in 2031

With Atiku winning in 2027, Kwankwaso has a chance of being a President in 2043.

If you were a Northern politician, where will you place your bet?

The Northern politicians know that the best option is to wait out the 4 years of the South. So why stake on Atiku?[/color]

raumdeuter:
Which governor did he have in 2023? The G5 that openly campaigned against him?

[color=royalblue]The North nko?[/color]

Greatswimmer:
People are not putting in to consideration the dynamic of 2023 election with regard to religion, I am very sure the influence would decrease in 2027.

If Tinubu won election in 2023 despite all internal crisis he experienced, what of now that his destiny is in his hand

A 3 man race has a different dynamics vs a 2 man race

If 2027 is going to be another 3 man race, then Tinubu does not need to worry, infact, the goal of Tinubu towards 2027 is to make it a 3 man race

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Let me use Kwankwaso as an example..

Between Atiku and Tinubu

With Tinubu winning in 2027, Kwankwaso has a chance of contesting for President in 2031

With Atiku winning in 2027, Kwankwaso has a chance of being a President in 2043.

If you were a Northern politician, where will you place your bet?

The Northern politicians know that the best option is to wait out the 4 years of the South. So why stake on Atiku?[/color]

Atiku does not need Kwankwaso. Of course, people like Kwankwaso who hope to be president in 2031 won't back Atiku. Same way no igbo politician in south who hopes to be VP in 2031 will back obi. Do you think every politician in the North backed Buhari? Did every politician in the South West back Tinubu? Kwankwaso did his worst in 2023 we have seen his hand. Kwankwaso is 1% of the north politicians the other 99% know they have no chance of becoming president and Atiku is the fastest way for them to get back power. No emotions in politics. Atiku is the oppositions best hand and you play your best hand always especially when you are opposition.

MonsieurCoder:
Atiku does not need Kwankwaso. Of course, people like Kwankwaso who hope to be president in 2031 won't back Atiku. Same way no igbo politician in south who hopes to be VP in 2031 will back obi. Do you think every politician in the North backed Buhari? Did every politician in the South West back Tinubu? Kwankwaso did his worst in 2023 we have seen his hand. Kwankwaso is 1% of the north politicians the other 99% know they have no chance of becoming president and Atiku is the fastest way for them to get back power. No emotions in politics. Atiku is the oppositions best hand and you play your best hand always especially when you are opposition.

[color=royalblue]This same example can also go for other Northern politicians.

Why do you think they are endorsing Tinubu here and there?

Well, let's wait for the coalition. [/color]

Theflint1:
If you truly love Atiku you'd tell him to keep what's left of his Dollars.

It's just too late for Atiku, he's fought a good fight and his political career would be remembered fondly by a lot of us, especially for being a progressive and moderate Northern politician.

Something tells me that Theflint1 will vote Atiku/Obi if it comes to it in 2027

Liberal Jews never learn ,the whole Palestine movement hate you because you are Jews no matter how hard you stretch hand for peace ,they loath you for your ethnicity,they don't care if you you stand with netanyahu or not.

Oct 7 happened because Israel tried to separate Palestinians from Hamas ,but what did the get in return.

Civilians spying for Hamas till they noticed IDF guards were down ,same civilians participated in Oct 7.


This whole Israel vs Palestine is very simple,is either you are with Jews or terrorist Palestinians,no in-between.

If anybody wants to gaslight people into voting Atiku, it should not be someone who pronounced with his own mouth he will be voting him for selfish reasons.

BlueRayDick:
If anybody wants to gaslight people into voting Atiku, it should not be someone who pronounced with his own mouth he will be voting him for selfish reasons.

[color=royalblue]"As long as corruption favor me, no wahala"

But na person wey vote Obi no like Nigeria [/color]

[color=royalblue]With the defections to APC, they will have serious issues when their primaries come.

I just hope those that will break out will be beneficial to the coalition [/color]

izzou:


[color=royalblue]"As long as corruption favor me, no wahala"

But na person wey vote Obi no like Nigeria [/color]

All this wailing u are seeing Na crocodile tears, just like that man wey knock police officer off the bridge in the video 😂😂😂

BlueRayDick:
All this wailing u are seeing Na crocodile tears, just like that man wey knock police officer off the bridge in the video 😂😂😂

[color=royalblue]No mind am

[/color]

raumdeuter:
Something tells me that Theflint1 will vote Atiku/Obi if it comes to it in 2027

An 81-year old Atiku is going to Aso Rock to recover all the monies he's lost over the years, even with Obi running beside him, it's a tough sell. If I'm convinced it'd be more of the same, fit just sidown house Election day.

BlueRayDick:
If anybody wants to gaslight people into voting Atiku, it should not be someone who pronounced with his own mouth he will be voting him for selfish reasons.

Atiku dollars don favor Elder over the years sha