₦airaland Forum

Nigeria’s petrol import bill fell sharply in the first quarter of 2025, dropping to N1.76 trillion from N3.81 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

This represents a 54% year-on-year decline, according to the latest foreign trade statistics report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The drop also marks a 47% reduction from Q4 2024, when the country spent N3.3 trillion on petrol imports.

The decline is largely attributed to increased domestic supply from the Dangote Refinery, which has continued to scale up operations.

Import trend reverses after years of steady growth
A five-year review of first-quarter petrol import figures shows that Nigeria had been on a steady upward trajectory until 2024.

The country imported N732 billion worth of petrol in Q1 2020, rising to N1.29 trillion in Q1 2021, and doubling again to N2.69 trillion in Q1 2022.

There was a moderate decline to N2.03 trillion in Q1 2023 before the value surged to an all-time high of N3.81 trillion in Q1 2024.

With the Q1 2025 import bill dropping to N1.76 trillion, Nigeria’s petrol import value has now returned to pre-2022 levels, suggesting that domestic refining is beginning to displace foreign supply in a meaningful way.

The NBS data signals a structural shift in Nigeria’s petroleum trade, following decades of dependence on imported refined products due to the collapse of state-owned refineries.

Petrol accounts for 44.51% of Nigeria’s imports from the ECOWAS region

The report further shows that petrol was Nigeria’s most imported product from ECOWAS countries in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for N89.18 billion or 44.51% of total imports from the subregion.

The figure highlights the continued importance of regional trade routes in meeting domestic fuel demand, despite Nigeria’s ongoing efforts to boost local refining through facilities such as the Dangote Refinery.

Within the broader West African region, petrol imports made up 41.86% of Nigeria’s trade inflow, while it contributed 11.63% of total imports from the entire African continent.

This dominance by petrol shows the lingering supply gaps in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

While local refining is gaining momentum, it has yet to fully replace the need for imported refined products.

Other major imports from the ECOWAS region during the period included gas oil at N23.15 billion (11.55%) and petroleum bitumen at N20.58 billion (10.27%), indicating that petroleum-based products continue to shape Nigeria’s import profile from the subregion.

Petrol was also listed among the top five most imported commodities nationwide in Q1 2025, alongside gas oil, crude petroleum oils, cane sugar for refineries, and durum wheat.

What you should know

The decline in petrol imports aligns with the growing influence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. With an installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the refinery is already supplying a significant portion of Nigeria’s petrol demand, although it is still operating below full capacity.

The refinery, which is currently producing about 85 per cent of its 650,000 barrels per day capacity, has helped to reduce the volume of imported refined petrol substantially.

This has introduced greater competition in the downstream market, with retail prices in Lagos dropping to as low as N860 per litre in early 2025.

However, the refinery’s operations have faced early challenges. In March 2025, Dangote Industries halted local currency sales due to foreign exchange constraints, as it relies on dollar-denominated crude inputs but receives naira in return for local sales.

However, the government has intervened to resolve the issues around the naira-for-crude deal. The facility continues to play a key role in narrowing the import gap.

Dreal1247:
Until the other refineries begin operations, do not rejoice yet as petrol will go for two thousand Naira per liter under Dangote monopoly.

Commentor:
But why are many Nigerians unhappy with good news?

Parydelegate:
Please don't make racist and tribalistic comments on this section

SarkinYarki:
It should even be zero because I don't understand why NNPC OVH is still importing that crap they call Petro

Commentor:
But why are many Nigerians unhappy with good news?

Judolisco:
Fuel scarcity has also dissappeared, not because there is fuel surplus but because people don't have money to buy much.... Everybody Don dey live for him level now

richmond500:
that is not true, scarcity has reduced because the market now have surplus of PMS.

There was a time in Nigeria that ships will not have clearance to berth on shore for weeks or months, this will make fuel scarce, but with Dangote, it is no longer the case

Dreal1247:
Until the other refineries begin operations, do not rejoice yet as petrol will go for two thousand Naira per liter under Dangote monopoly.

richmond500:
that is not true, scarcity has reduced because the market now have surplus of PMS.

There was a time in Nigeria that ships will not have clearance to berth on shore for weeks or months, this will make fuel scarce, but with Dangote, it is no longer the case

Commentor:
I thought Dangote's Refinery was a fraud, and your brother who works as a gatekeeper told you it would never function?

bedic:
Many people won't like this good news. Because Dangote will take good out of their mouth

SarkinYarki:
It should even be zero because I don't understand why NNPC OVH is still importing that crap they call Petro

nairalanda1:
NNPC was destroyed by years of subsidy. Had there been no subsidy from 1992...when we were warned, NNPC would have had four up to date working refineries, and probably would have added at least two more over the years, because they have the profit to do so.

Subsidy means that scams such as the subsidy scam and the TAM scam (and also actual delays in TAM) were made possible. Because, no profit, free government money...and the fact that subsidy means that whether you do your best or not, money comes in (try that with a private refinery...you would be sacked before the owner has his baby ruined by you)....meant the refineries are in the state they are today.

At best, I won't be putting hope in NNPC. Right now, they are fixing themselves from the damage over 4 decades of subsidy did to them. For now, its the private sector that will take the lead in domestic refining.