₦airaland Forum

There is no doubt Peter Gregory Obi is the ‘star boy’ of politics in present-day Nigeria. The appellation was formerly given to immediate past Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo (SAN). However, with the end of the Muhammadu Buhari presidency, Osinbajo seems to have gone into political oblivion, especially with his defeat in the presidential primary of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

For daring to contest against his former principal, President Bola Tinubu, many leaders of the party have given Osinbajo a wide berth. Since he left office, Osinbajo has not really identified with the APC and was even absent at the caucus meeting of the party earlier this year because, according to his media aide, “he was out of Nigeria for some engagements to which he had long been committed.” It is unknown if the opposition coalition movement is in talks with him.

On the part of Obi, he has remained the beautiful bride of Nigerian politics since 2022, when he dumped the major opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), for the Labour Party (LP) in May 2022.

Many people who wrote to him, erroneously claiming that he had no structure, were shell-shocked by the outcome of the 2023 presidential election. He defeated the strongman of Lagos politics, the master strategist himself, President Bola Tinubu, in his home base of Lagos State. He also won in FCT and many other states, such as Enugu, Nasarawa, Delta, Imo, Cross River, Ebonyi, Anambra, Abia, Edo and Plateau. To date, many of his supporters, especially those in the Obidient Movement, believed that he won the election and have laid the blame on the doorsteps of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary.

Ahead of the 2027 general elections, the opposition parties are unrelenting in their quest to deny President Tinubu a second term. Given the power of incumbency he enjoys and the dominance of his party, it is believed that it will be an uphill task for one single political party to defeat the APC in the presidential election. It is even more daunting given the fact that while the APC has been waxing stronger with defections from governors and federal lawmakers, the other political parties are enmeshed in multiple crises with no purpose and clear sense of direction. With the PDP already out of the coalition, major stakeholders like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Peter Obi and others are yet to harmonise on whether to quickly float a new party or adopt one of the existing political parties. Once that hurdle is crossed, the second dilemma will be, who flies the party’s flag as presidential candidate?

From information gathered, Atiku Abubakar has his eyes set on running for the presidential election for the very last time. Having made some costly mistakes in the past, especially in 2003 and 2023, Atiku is very much wiser now and is ready to give all it takes to win the election. Sources said Atiku is desirous of having Peter Obi as his running mate. That ordinarily shouldn’t pose any problem, as both men already ran on the same ticket in 2019. However, a lot has changed between then and now, and that is why this article focuses on two costly mistakes Obi cannot afford to make.

The first mistake is that Obi will be shooting himself in the foot if he accepts to be running mate to anyone. The question any rational mind should ask is, why are they swarming around Obi like bees to honey? It is because of the large followership he enjoys among the youths. For someone like Atiku, he believes he can win some states in the North, and Obi delivers some votes with his huge followership; he is home and dry. Credible sources even said he promised to run for just a single term and then hand over to Obi in 2031. I believe Obi should not allow desperation or sugar-coated talks to becloud his sense of reasoning. This is because the majority of his supporters, especially those in the Obidient Movement who are rallying behind him, are doing so simply because they wanted him as president, not as a running mate to any politician of the old order.

Let me give a brief background on what led to the formation of the Obidient Movement. In the build-up to the 2019 presidential election, former president Muhammadu Buhari had the vice president as running mate, while Atiku chose Peter Obi. As political editor of Daily Independent then, I was present during the vice-presidential debate in December 2018, and many Nigerians wondered why two cerebral men with impressive CVs like Obi and Osinbajo were running mates while spent forces like Atiku and Buhari were the presidential candidates.

I recollected vividly what transpired in January 2019 during the presidential town hall meeting, tagged ‘The Candidates’, which featured Buhari and Osinbajo. Anchored by Kadaria Ahmed, Osinbajo answered many of the questions directed to Buhari, which left many Nigerians wondering whether he (Osinbajo) was the president and Buhari the vice president. It got to a stage that Kadaria had to tell the then vice president to allow Buhari to speak for himself and answer the questions. It was that bad.

Buoyed by the tremendous support and endorsement they got from Nigerians, both Obi and Osinbajo decided to run for the office of the president during the 2023 general elections. In March 2022, Obi picked the presidential form of the PDP. The form was purchased by Like Minds (LM), led by one Ekene Nwakuche, who said that they are a group of young Nigerian professionals that feel the country is not going in the right direction and needs “a seasoned technocrat that can steer the affairs of the country in the right direction, and we believe the person that can do that is Peter Obi”.

Two days before the PDP primary, having realised the body language of the stakeholders that it wanted to give the party’s ticket to moneybags, Obi resigned from the PDP over what he called “issues that are at variance with my persona and principles” and joined the Labour Party (LP).

Many excited youths who were desirous of a change and departure from the old order of PDP and APC declared their support for him on social media and started referring to themselves as Obidients. That was what birthed the Obidient Movement in 2022 and not the unpardonable error made by Chief Bisi Akande when he claimed that Obidients organised the #EndSARS protests of 2020 to stop Tinubu’s presidential ambition. There was nothing like the Obidient Movement in 2020. The youths were looking forward to Osinbajo clinching the APC ticket too, but unfortunately, Osinbajo lost in the APC primary to incumbent president Bola Tinubu.

The 2023 presidential election witnessed a large number of first-time voters. Many youths who were hitherto politically indifferent registered to vote and collected their PVCs. I personally know two Nigerians who travelled from the United Kingdom (UK) to Nigeria to vote for Peter Obi during the presidential election.

So, the desire of the youths is to see Peter Obi lead Nigeria and fulfil the promises he has been making, not to become running mate to anyone. These youths are waiting to see what decision Obi will make as regards the coalition movement.

The danger in becoming a running mate is that politicians can’t be trusted, especially when they have acquired power. Let’s assume Atiku picks Obi as his running mate and agrees to do one term. Atiku may be sincere, but once he becomes president, the hawks and sycophants who surround him will, first of all, create a wedge between him and Obi and then start endorsing Atiku for a second term like they are all doing to Tinubu now. He will have no option but to accept their endorsements. Besides, how will Peter Obi fulfil all his electoral promises as a vice president in a country where deputies are seen as mere spare tyres? The current vice president, Kashim Shettima, during the presidential campaign in August 2022, promised to handle security issues while Tinubu will handle the economy. We are all witnesses to how Shettima is doing that today.

Obi has done well in reorganising the Obidient Movement from a headless mob into a well-organised group. He appointed Dr Yunusa Tanko, a tested and highly resourceful politician, as the national coordinator. Also, some executives of the movement were also announced, and they have been doing a lot in galvanising new members into the movement ahead of the 2027 presidential election. I am in constant touch with Tanko, and the last time we spoke, I stressed the need for them to bring in more technocrats and professionals on board. I have also seen mobilisation efforts being made by some of the executives, like Nana Kazaure and Morris Monye, and it is quite commendable.

The second costly mistake Obi can’t afford to make is to run on the platform of the Labour Party (LP). When asked in a recent interview in which party he intends to contest the 2027 elections, Obi said, “I will still continue to run in the Labour Party. I’m a member of the Labour Party.”

That, to me, is committing political hara-kiri, as no single political party can confront the APC today with President Tinubu as a candidate. The Labour Party is seriously factionalised, with three national chairmen laying claim to the leadership of the party: Julius Abure, Lamidi Apapa and Nenadi Usman. Abure recently described the only governor of the party, Alex Otti, as a dwarf.

While Obi said the ruling APC is fuelling and orchestrating the crisis in the LP, the Abure-led faction said Obi is the architect of the party’s dwindling fortunes, and it appears the brickbats will not end soon. Virtually all the elected federal lawmakers of the party, whom many Nigerians thought would give robust opposition in the National Assembly, have defected to the APC, and many more will still leave because they are self-seeking leeches without any morals or ideologies.

So, I will advise Peter Obi to perish the thought of running on the platform of the LP. There is no miracle that can be performed by him and Otti that can put the party in good shape for the 2023 presidential election.

Rather, he should work with the coalition and negotiate from the ‘position of strength’ to emerge as the coalition’s presidential candidate. If Atiku is pleading to do one term and hand over to Obi in 2031, Obi too should promise him that he will do one term in 2027 and then hand over to the North in 2031. After all, the clamour is that the South should complete its eight years like the North did from 2015 to 2023, and four years is enough for any serious leader to cause transformational changes which successive leaders can then build upon. I repeat for the sake of emphasis, the youths following Obi want him as president. He may lose their support if he settles for a running mate who is anyone.

Lastly, Obi should pray that APC’s ‘juju’ will not catch Governor Otti like they succeeded in taking away Valentine Ozigbo from the Labour Party. That will be one loss too many for the papa, mama, pikin party.

I end this article with the famous quote from American scholar and one of the world’s leading experts on leadership, the late Warren Bennis. He said, “Followers who tell the truth and leaders who listen to it are an unbeatable combination.”

*Akinsuyi, former Group Politics Editor of Daily Independent, writes from the United Kingdom.[b][/b]

Mabuggi88:
For Obi to see that seat his most chance is to Vice Atiku. Obidients should understand it will be very difficult for Obi to win as the presidential candidate in whatever party he chooses to run with except if Tinubu hangs booth or the INEC decide to play pranks on him. That man Tinubu's bribe is very hard to resist, he doesn't mind giving them everything he has in the bank just to retain that seat.
This time there would be serious check in Lagos and FCT by Tinubu supporters just to make sure there's no repeat of what happened in 2023.
I repeat he should deputize Atiku. Since his ambition is to make Nigeria work like other advance countries, he should make sure they enter into agreement with Atiku to relinquish much of the developmental duties and responsibilities to him so he can apply that which he has been singing like a song let's see

richmond500:
Whoever wrote this article wants Tinubu to win 2027 election.
They are pushing Obi to negotiate from the position of strength and be the presidential candidate because the youths wants him, they will say the same thing to Atiku, Amaechi and co, which will destroy the coalition.

Obi should know the youth wants a change from APC and PDP old men and not necessarily Obi himself
If Osinbajo had defected to another party and contested, Obi wouldn't have had the votes he had cos Osinbajo was the Starboy and the youths favourite till he lost at the polls and the favour shifted to Obi.

My advice to Amaechi Obi and El-Rufai is to understand themselves and contest. As for Atiku, he should GTH with his greed.

Agbegbaorogboye:
This article is concise and the message well passed but I disagree with the message. Obidients and Obi need to be pragmatic. They need to understand and realise what they are up against. This is not 2023 when Buhari wanted a level playing field. Even with his good intentions, the political hawks in APC still managed to "glitch" the system. We're talking here of 2027 where Tinubu will be an incumbent running for a second term, where he has successfully subjugated almost every critical institution and apparatus. If Obi runs solo, the 2023 template will be replayed again. Simplicita.
His best bet now is VP to Atiku. He shouldn't allow anyone to gaslight him. Even Tinubu attempted to be VP to a Buhari. Anyone telling him to run alone is either just being sentimental or working for the APC.

helinues:
@ emboldened, why do you like to be lying deliberately just to prove no points? Who suggested Osinbajo as VP to Buhari?

helinues:
@ emboldened, why do you like to be lying deliberately just to prove no points? Who suggested Osinbajo as VP to Buhari?

Agbegbaorogboye:
This article is concise and the message well passed but I disagree with the message. Obidients and Obi need to be pragmatic. They need to understand and realise what they are up against. This is not 2023 when Buhari wanted a level playing field. Even with his good intentions, the political hawks in APC still managed to "glitch" the system. We're talking here of 2027 where Tinubu will be an incumbent running for a second term, where he has successfully subjugated almost every critical institution and apparatus. If Obi runs solo, the 2023 template will be replayed again. Simplicita.
His best bet now is VP to Atiku. He shouldn't allow anyone to gaslight him. Even Tinubu attempted to be VP to a Buhari. Anyone telling him to run alone is either just being sentimental or working for the APC.

Agbegbaorogboye:
Go and read Bisi Akande's book which Tinubu has not denied

OneCandleAway:
The person you quoted is right. Tinubu wanted to be VP. But Muslim Muslim ticket wouldn't have worked then. They had to call his best friend baba akande to break the news to him to rather select someone else because he can't be the vp.

Agbegbaorogboye:
This article is concise and the message well passed but I disagree with the message. Obidients and Obi need to be pragmatic. They need to understand and realise what they are up against. This is not 2023 when Buhari wanted a level playing field. Even with his good intentions, the political hawks in APC still managed to "glitch" the system. We're talking here of 2027 where Tinubu will be an incumbent running for a second term, where he has successfully subjugated almost every critical institution and apparatus. If Obi runs solo, the 2023 template will be replayed again. Simplicita.
His best bet now is VP to Atiku. He shouldn't allow anyone to gaslight him. Even Tinubu attempted to be VP to a Buhari. Anyone telling him to run alone is either just being sentimental or working for the APC.

helinues:
Go and watch president Tinubu's outburst in Ogun state before the election