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Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live - Foreign Affairs (3621) - Nairaland

Nairaland ForumNairaland GeneralPoliticsForeign AffairsRussia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live (2629186 Views)

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by WriterrNg: 7:12am On Jul 05, 2025
⚡Trump:

Ukraine is going to need Patriots for defense. I don't want to see people killed. We might send them. We are looking at it.


Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by WriterrNg: 7:12am On Jul 05, 2025
⚡At least 25 dead and over 237 rescued in massive flash flooding event in Texas, say officials.
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by dvkot(m): 7:21am On Jul 05, 2025
WriterrNg:
⚡Trump:

Ukraine is going to need Patriots for defense. I don't want to see people killed. We might send them. We are looking at it.


if you can afford them, send it. I don't want any clown to attribute Russia wins to patriots missile shortages.
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by WriterrNg: 7:42am On Jul 05, 2025
dvkot:
if you can afford them, send it. I don't want any clown to attribute Russia wins to patriots missile shortages.
Wallahi.
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Gbadebo19(m): 7:44am On Jul 05, 2025
Obedience40:
Gbadebo19 I hear say Ukraine don catch one Nigerian man way they fight for Russia for Ukraine Kehinde Oluwagbemileke. You sure say no be our friend link am to the lucrative job

😂😂😂😂😂😂
E shock me ooo.
That's how Writterng helps his fellow Nigerians and Africans in general.

Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Gbadebo19(m): 7:49am On Jul 05, 2025
Obedience40:
So when we see one fictional "War Lord" Lord Adamu scribbling nonsense, we have to remind him of history, The Chinese have been cooked before and will be cooked again if the need arises.
grin grin Love the part saying "cooked before and will be cooked again." grin grin
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Alamkiir: 8:02am On Jul 05, 2025
WritterNg:
⚡Andrei Badalov, Vice President of "Transneft" a company for oil transportation, has died after falling from the window of his luxury apartment in central Moscow - Russian media
Why are this rich Russian men always fallen from windows? This is creepy AF
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by DeathParade: 8:02am On Jul 05, 2025
WritterNg:
⚡India lost 3 French-made Rafale fighter jets during clash with Pakistan, Indian foreign minister Jaishankar says.

https://x.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1940777473043829149
Fake news. Funny how obsessed Pakis are with this though. Good distraction from the fact that they got a drubbing, received precision hits on 11 of their 13 airbases on the final day of the war and their much vaunted J-10C could not shoot down a single Indian jet that day, not even the Pakistanis claim they shot Indian jets on the last day, their claims are all about the first day.

BTW, do you guys also believe Pakistan when they say they won this conflict? Despite India still holding the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance and denying Pakistan its Water?

Lmao. Anyways, IRL, India likely lost at least one jet, based on the comment that the Indian CDS Gen Chauhan made in Singapore. There was also one photo of what may have been an M88 engine afterburner on the ground in India. What is weird is that no photo surfaced of what should have been a jet crashed nearby or at least other parts of the engine nearby. That is ALL we know for a fact. Rest is speculation or propaganda.

What we also know is that there were similar ground reports from Pakistan of them looking for fighter pilots ejecting over Pakistan airspace. But ofcourse nobody will talk about that even though both sides have officially stated that each sides' jets remained on their own airspace, meaning that an ejection over Paki airspace means a Paki jet downed.

In the age of social media and post truth, folks don't seem to have any nuance left. They just want to see proof of their favorite side winning. So "J10 won over Western Technology means Chinese weapon tech better than Western weapons" seems to be the refrain. No scope of even considering concomitant factors. Pathetic.
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by DeathParade: 8:13am On Jul 05, 2025
LordAdam16:
This is an involved thought process.
Don't have the time to lay every single component out, but will give some sort of synopsis.

The US relies on air and naval power.
No one is thinking of conventionally invading China. That is not an objective.

For air and naval power, they'll need bases and superior manufacturing.
China has them beat on manufacturing supremacy.
On bases, they'll have to be close to China.
Look up Pacific island chains. It's this concept in military strategy of a ring of island chains that the US has to control to have a pincer around China to be capable of hurting China.




As with the Gulf bases and Iran; the US so-called unsinkable carriers are Japan, South Korea, and to some degree Philippines.
Thailand, Malaysia, India, and a few others maybe may contribute to the war effort.
This is where it gets tricky because WW2 and the cold war is over.
As I told Writer, pull up Google Earth.

For every 1 million casualty in China, at least 3 million plus will be eliminated in those vassals.
South Korea will be taken off the board in days. Japan will be crippled. Think the status of the Low Countries during Hitler's march.
Philippines will sign an unconditional surrender. India will stay out hoping to pull a US where it will wait until both sides have wrecked themselves before aligning with the winner.

Then it's about China pumping out enough materiel to crowd out US assets in the South China sea and pushing the US to the second island chain. A reverse of what the US did to Japan during WW2. Casualties from US attacks will at worse plateau at this point and fatalities in mainland US will start rising rapidly. I don't see China pushing further into the Western Hemisphere unless the US collapses under its own weight.




But this is the point where all of China's innate brutality and manufacturing supremacy will have the most devastating effect.
Think about what's happening in Ukraine currently. China will send waves after waves, non-stop of incendiaries, until it achieves its war goals.
The US will seek to blunt the attack but China will keep at it and systematically degrade the US militarily because it will simply make more stuff that go kaboom.

That is why I said it'll be a mauling.
It'll be the Dragon just drowning continental US in unrelenting fire.
A malaise the US has never experienced.
The Western seaboard will be decimated. Panama canal destroyed. Population centers in eastern seaboard cities will become kill zones.
That is the definition of "unrecognizable".




Will China suffer huge casualties in a total war? Yes.
But at the point where it's lost 100m people, every Asian country that is a US vassal today would have either capitulated or be destroyed.
The US itself will bear the brunt during the war. No more destroying some other region, and decimating that region's population and industrial capacity while paying little price. Then it'll become how much punishment they can sustain until they sign a treaty that makes China the clear, undisputed Superpower.

This will be a war that dethrones the US.
The $ reserve status. The so-called rules-based order. All of that bunkum. China will put in a coffin.
China is preparing for the war. And part of the US starting fires all around is trying to rope in China into costly foreign debacles before it hits its own military milestones.
China knows the US will not go quietly into the night. A mostly peaceful collapse of the US will still have a shooting war component.

That's why the Chinese Foreign Minister told Kallas earlier this week that while it will not allow Russia to lose in Ukraine, it hasn't really provided military help to Russia. Because if it had, the war would have been over.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say
Russia, Iran, the Koreas, even Taiwan. All the provocations aim to get China to stumble. But Beijing is not biting. The export controls and restrictions are also to slow China's military modernization.

China is currently building a military command center in Beijing that is 10 times bigger than the Pentagon.
They're not doing that to seize Taiwan or because of Japan.
The CCP don set date for the US. When the time comes they'll either accept a diminished role or be made to.

A multipolar world is the diplomatic compromise. But China knows that after 2500 years at the top, old habits die hard.
So it is preparing for what it considers an inevitability.
A showdown with the US.

-Lord
Nice analysis. But how do you suppose the nuclear dimension plays into this? And if we are going nuclear, we must also consider a biological attack and also a potential Kessler syndrome up in orbit, locking us all out.

What we need to understand is that when it comes to superpowers fighting these days, its limited by the fact that either side has the power to simply flip the proverbial chess board if they are losing completely. This is why I think that a kinetic war will not lead to a clear winner in the foreseeable future. Both sides understand that a flipped board is where everyone loses. Therefore both nations understand the importance of conflict management, the escalation ladder and deconfliction.
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Alamkiir: 8:14am On Jul 05, 2025
FoolishBoy419:
That is what is called masterclass. Unfortunately, it will still not be enough to clear their eyes. Mad respect @shoodboi 😎
I didnt see that post, I only saw the quote. I tried to go back to the post to share but it's just not their. Is this some Nairaland tricks again, this has happened so many time in the last few weeks
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by WriterrNg: 8:44am On Jul 05, 2025
⚡Most Racist Countries (%)

1. 🇮🇱 Israel — 97%
2. 🇺🇸 United States — 95%
3. 🇮🇳 India — 93%
4. 🇫🇷 France — 91%
5. 🇬🇧 UK — 89%
6. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — 88%
7. 🇵🇱 Poland — 86%
8. 🇺🇦 Ukraine — 85%
9. 🇨🇦 Canada — 83%
10. 🇦🇺 Australia — 82%
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by FoolishBoy419: 9:03am On Jul 05, 2025
Alamkiir:
I didnt see that post, I only saw the quote. I tried to go back to the post to share but it's just not their. Is this some Nairaland tricks again, this has happened so many time in the last few weeks
That's the new NL for you. Everything you type stands a chance of being randomly deleted for no reason. Perhaps the AI wasn't comfortable with the facts he pointed out grin
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by WriterrNg: 9:04am On Jul 05, 2025
🇨🇳 🆚 🌍

Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Alamkiir: 9:05am On Jul 05, 2025
DeathParade:
Lmao. Cope harder.
How does this even prove anything?
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Alamkiir: 9:10am On Jul 05, 2025
WriterrNg:
⚡Trump:

Ukraine is going to need Patriots for defense. I don't want to see people killed. We might send them. We are looking at it.


You obviously don't care about the Ukrainian people, you only care about protecting your resources and your investment in the Ukrain
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by WriterrNg: 9:15am On Jul 05, 2025
⚡Former Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine:

"Russia treats the Ukraine war as a side show.

Russia is only committing 5-7% of its budget to war.

If Moscow wanted to, it could mobilize 2 million troops, ramp up spending, and erase Ukraine from the map in months, cracking Kiev “like a rotten walnut.

They attack 1,000,000 Ukrainian soldiers with 650,000 and are winning. All textbooks say it has to be 1:3".


Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Alamkiir: 9:20am On Jul 05, 2025
WriterrNg:
⚡Most Racist Countries (%)

1. 🇮🇱 Israel — 97%
2. 🇺🇸 United States — 95%
3. 🇮🇳 India — 93%
4. 🇫🇷 France — 91%
5. 🇬🇧 UK — 89%
6. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — 88%
7. 🇵🇱 Poland — 86%
8. 🇺🇦 Ukraine — 85%
9. 🇨🇦 Canada — 83%
10. 🇦🇺 Australia — 82%
Isreal, India those two na confirm racist, including Poland and Ukrain
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by WriterrNg: 9:24am On Jul 05, 2025
Alamkiir:
You obviously don't care about the Ukrainian people, you only care about protecting your resources and your investment in the Ukrain
That so called investment will never see the light of the day.

They'll just be pouring water inside a basket.

Russia is waiting for any American company that would be stupid enough to set up shop in Ukraine. They bombed some recently.
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Alamkiir: 9:25am On Jul 05, 2025
WriterrNg:
🇨🇳 🆚 🌍
Russia be like: share wetin

Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by sainttwist1(m): 9:29am On Jul 05, 2025
WriterrNg:
⚡Most Racist Countries (%)

1. 🇮🇱 Israel — 97%
2. 🇺🇸 United States — 95%
3. 🇮🇳 India — 93%
4. 🇫🇷 France — 91%
5. 🇬🇧 UK — 89%
6. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — 88%
7. 🇵🇱 Poland — 86%
8. 🇺🇦 Ukraine — 85%
9. 🇨🇦 Canada — 83%
10. 🇦🇺 Australia — 82%
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

🤐🤐🤐🤐
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by Alamkiir: 9:32am On Jul 05, 2025
WriterrNg:
That so called investment will never see the light of the day.

They'll just be pouring water inside a basket.

Russia is waiting for any American company that would be stupid enough to set up shop in Ukraine. They bombed some recently.
It's like Putin decided to add more land the day trump sign deal with Ukraine. Putin should collect all the useful land in Ukraine and leave barred land for US
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by LordAdam16: 9:36am On Jul 05, 2025
bryght4u:
Has Tehran indeed taken delivery of 40 J-10C fighter jets from Beijing?
News about possible delivery of the said jets are popping up all over the internet, with some sources alleging that 20 more would be delivered in December.
Please confirm
Cc:
Lord.Adam16
Shood.boi
Writt.erng
Can you share links to this report?

All I can confirm is that Iran is negotiating for dozens of J-10Cs and a few AWACS platforms.

-Lord
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by DeathParade: 9:49am On Jul 05, 2025
Alamkiir:
How does this even prove anything?
Spoken like a non-engineer. Ofcourse you don't understand the challenges of developing such capability and technology for exotic environments and niche applications. And therefore you conclude that this photo doesn't disprove your claims.

Your assertion that India failed to achieve Kaveri engine design specs due to rote learning culture further proves you have no idea what you are talking about. Can you tell me the link between what you are talking about and other things like Dislocation glide and climb, Rhenium and the Czochralski process? Ofcourse you can't. But somehow you know about the Kaveri engine, huh?

Do you know what DMS4 is? No. But you deem yourself qualified to pass asinine comments about the level of understanding in Indian engineers.

I am an Indian mechanical engineer. I've experienced the phenomena of cramming that you are talking about first hand. And then I've worked under Indian boffins that work on stuff like the Kaveri engine. They aren't your average Indian engineers. They are elite. They don't suffer the "rote learning" problem you are talking about. Their intelligence is terrifying. They are world class engineers.

Try attending a seminar with them. You'll understand how wrong you are. They aren't your IT engineers or coders you come across in corporate sector. Have you seen how many FEA and CFD solvers these guys write?
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by WriterrNg: 9:49am On Jul 05, 2025
⚡First U.S. Academics Fleeing Trump Policies Arrive in France.

Eight American researchers have joined France’s Safe Place for Science program at Aix-Marseille University, fleeing fears of funding cuts and political pressure under Donald Trump’s leadership.

University president Eric Berton compared the exodus to the flight of scholars from Nazi Germany, calling for official “scientific refugee” status.

Most applicants requested anonymity, fearing backlash if offers fall through. One climate scientist said, “We work in areas being targeted — our future in the U.S. is uncertain.”

Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by WriterrNg: 9:55am On Jul 05, 2025
⚡Greenland grants Canada’s Greenland Resources Inc. a 30-year license to mine molybdenum and magnesium—key metals for steel and defense production.

The company claims the project could meet all EU defense-related molybdenum needs for decades

Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by LordAdam16: 10:00am On Jul 05, 2025
DeathParade:
Nice analysis. But how do you suppose the nuclear dimension plays into this? And if we are going nuclear, we must also consider a biological attack and also a potential Kessler syndrome up in orbit, locking us all out.

What we need to understand is that when it comes to superpowers fighting these days, its limited by the fact that either side has the power to simply flip the proverbial chess board if they are losing completely. This is why I think that a kinetic war will not lead to a clear winner in the foreseeable future. Both sides understand that a flipped board is where everyone loses. Therefore both nations understand the importance of conflict management, the escalation ladder and deconfliction.
Israel just lost a war with Iran and it is a nuclear power.
The US lost in Afghanistan and it is a nuclear power.

Flipping the table is the last thing you'll do.
Literally.
There are no moves after that.

In my analysis, I pointed out that the preferred outcome would be a treaty where the US loses its perch and perks and China becomes the undisputed #1.
The goal is not to eradicate all 350m Americans and wipe America off the map.
Nukes forestall annihilation. They don't prevent strategic defeats.
France has lost more than a dozen bases in Africa in the past 5 years. It is a nuclear power.

In a total war, China will drive the US out of the Pacific, maul the US mainland, and break its chokehold on global order.
That war will do to the US what the Suez Canal crisis did to the UK.

-Lord
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by DeathParade: 10:08am On Jul 05, 2025
LordAdam16:
Israel just lost a war with Iran and it is a nuclear power.
The US lost in Afghanistan and it is a nuclear power.

Flipping the table is the last thing you'll do.
Literally.
There are no moves after that.

In my analysis, I pointed out that the preferred outcome would be a treaty where the US loses its perch and perks and China becomes the undisputed #1.
The goal is not to eradicate all 350m Americans and wipe America off the map.
Nukes forestall annihilation. They don't prevent strategic defeats.
France has lost more than a dozen bases in Africa in the past 5 years. It is a nuclear power.

In a total war, China will drive the US out of the Pacific, maul the US mainland, and break its chokehold on global order.
That war will do to the US what the Suez Canal crisis did to the UK.

-Lord
Fair points. But I still wonder how that looks on the escalation ladder. China aims to first break the island chains. Attacking USA mainland is too far up the ladder, no? China will have Loss of Strength Gradient to contend with. Anyways. Let's see how it plays out. 2027, Xi said. Its right around the corner now.
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by chidekings(m): 10:23am On Jul 05, 2025
LordAdam16:
Israel just lost a war with Iran and it is a nuclear power.
The US lost in Afghanistan and it is a nuclear power.

Flipping the table is the last thing you'll do.
Literally.
There are no moves after that.

In my analysis, I pointed out that the preferred outcome would be a treaty where the US loses its perch and perks and China becomes the undisputed #1.
The goal is not to eradicate all 350m Americans and wipe America off the map.
Nukes forestall annihilation. They don't prevent strategic defeats.
France has lost more than a dozen bases in Africa in the past 5 years. It is a nuclear power.

In a total war, China will drive the US out of the Pacific, maul the US mainland, and break its chokehold on global order.
That war will do to the US what the Suez Canal crisis did to the UK.

-Lord
do you believe all this bs you type all the time.
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by OkpaNsukkaisBae(m): 11:09am On Jul 05, 2025
WriterrNg:
⚡First U.S. Academics Fleeing Trump Policies Arrive in France.

Eight American researchers have joined France’s Safe Place for Science program at Aix-Marseille University, fleeing fears of funding cuts and political pressure under Donald Trump’s leadership.

University president Eric Berton compared the exodus to the flight of scholars from Nazi Germany, calling for official “scientific refugee” status.

Most applicants requested anonymity, fearing backlash if offers fall through. One climate scientist said, “We work in areas being targeted — our future in the U.S. is uncertain.”
E be like the orange man will finally crash the evil hegemony/empire from within
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by OkpaNsukkaisBae(m): 11:11am On Jul 05, 2025
WriterrNg:
⚡Greenland grants Canada’s Greenland Resources Inc. a 30-year license to mine molybdenum and magnesium—key metals for steel and defense production.

The company claims the project could meet all EU defense-related molybdenum needs for decades
Pain successfully landed in the White House.
Wonder how Trump will react..
Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by WriterrNg: 11:30am On Jul 05, 2025
⚡Iran Hit Five Israeli Military Sites, Including Major Airbase — Tel Aviv Kept It Quiet

During the 12-day conflict with Iran, Israel concealed the fact that five of its military facilities—including a major airbase—were successfully struck, according to The Daily Telegraph. The report cites satellite analysis conducted by Oregon State University.

The images show six Iranian missiles hitting targets in northern, southern, and central Israel. Among them were a military intelligence center and a logistics base. In total, Iran struck over 40 Israeli infrastructure sites during the brief conflict.

Re: Russia-Ukraine War: World News, Weapons & Battlefield Discussions - Live by LordAdam16: 11:46am On Jul 05, 2025
DeathParade:
Fair points. But I still wonder how that looks on the escalation ladder. China aims to first break the island chains. Attacking USA mainland is too far up the ladder, no? China will have lots of strength gradient to contend with. Anyways. Let's see how it plays out. 2027, Xi said. Its right around the corner now.
The moment an American jet or ship fires a missile or bullet at mainland China, the continental US becomes fair game.
Before hypersonics and drones, it was a gargatuan undertaking to do so reliably and at a steady clip.
US SA, congestion, and just the sheer enormity of the task took it right to the top of the escalation ladder.

In a total war, it'll start happening within the week the war started.
China will make short work of US bases and assets in its immediate vicinity and start achieving its primary objective of eliminating US outpost/influence in the satellite states around it.
As such from Week 2, the US will start facing the prospects of a strategic defeat that'll deepen the longer the war progresses.

Losing South Korea is a significant defeat.
Losing Japan. Then Philippines. Then all of Asia either signing an armistice or adopting neutrality because of the demonstration of China's might in the US satellite states would catapult China to becoming the top dog in the Pacific. That's before the carnage in the US picks pace.

Guam and Hawaii will be appetizers and the Western seaboard will be attacked relentlessly.




A total war with the US is the perfect set up for China because it can start notching small but iconic wins in short order in the Pacific theater.
It also means there's an extended, drawn out gulf between losing prized assets in the Pacific and tier 2 US cities becoming kill zones.
Within that gulf, the US can raise a white flag and stick to being a local champion.

It also means its European allies can for the very first time be the party throttling and adjusting what kind of support to give and what type of outcome they desire. They'll send tons of aid in the tens of thousands, while China will output materiel in the millions of tons.
The fear of Russia opening a front will be the salient excuse used by Europe to recalibrate the terms of its transatlantic relationship.
And they'll be the voice on the shoulder warning against a nuclear exchange, because they will be the worst hit in a nuclear exchange.

The prevailing thought in West Point is that the US is impregnable because of its landmass, oceanic buffer, and large armed population.
But it's not 1945 anymore. The Israelis lived like hermits during their short war but there were no airplanes and artillery buzzing.
Just intermittent streaks of lightning bolts.
The War with China will be a "Come to Jesus" moment for the US populace.

Hypersonics and drones are a game changer.
They could have been very helpful to the Hegemony in extending their dominance for another half a millennium.
But the capacity deficit is the Hegemony's knell.




I will take the bet that Xi does not start a war in 2027.

China has multiple milestones.
Xi set a 2027 milestone for the military to have the capability to not just overwhelm Taiwan but be able to seize it.
That does not mean they seek to seize Taiwan by 2027.
No, far from it.

It means that's a milestone they can check off the board and continue onwards to other milestones.
Taiwan is in the first Island chain. Japan and South Korea are in the first island chain.
If you can seize Taiwan in peace time, the only nut left to crack is Japan. And no one wants to seize Japan. The plan there would be to eliminate it as a staging ground for the US and force it to sign an armistice.
It'll be equivalent to maneuvering around a large city to continue your onward march.
Guam can be seized. Hawaii you set on fire.

Do some reading about the Pacific Theater during World War II.
It is fascinating.

Japan got all the way to Central Pacific. Their defensive parameter extended from western Alaska to the Solomon Islands.
Japan neutralized Australia by taking out New Guinea.
The Japanese plan was to completely destroy the Pacific fleet and force the US to sign a treaty acknowledging Japanese control and preeminence in the Pacific/Asia.
The US turned the tides of the war because of capacity and Japan expending tons of resources on the China campaign.
This time, China has Russia in its corner and zero distractions. It will not try to conquer India for example in the middle of a war with the US.
It will not even bog itself down trying to deploy LHDs to take over Japan or Philippines or Thailand or Indonesia.
It will simply focus on the task at hand, taking the US to the cleaners.
In fact, Chinese goals in a pacific war with the US will be more modest than Imperial Japanese goals but with the capacity to achieve Imperial Japanese goals. China is not trying to integrate new Asian regions into its direct control as Japan sought to do and succeeded until the tides changed, it's singular objective is to bounce the US out of the Pacific and lock the gate.
Then maul continental US until it accepts the new paradigm.

So no, it's not about 2027.
The US is more likely to start sh*t by 2027 because a China that just keeps advancing into the late 2030s is a devilspawning monster.
By 2040, the question transforms from one of capability to one of ease and what new objectives China could start pursuing.
As such, some in the Pentagon might push to roll the dice this decade.
Which POTUS would be st*pid enough to do that is a different question.

-Lord
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