₦airaland Forum

sleek214:
A delusional obidient or a Tinubu supporter spotted. An intelligent obidient knows Obi best chance is to be VP to Atiku, that's the surest way Igbo can get the presidency...

Then Igbo is second fiddle....cos the song you sang was to be President but not as second to Atiku....inferiority complex, us it a crime for Igbo to be a President.....

If Obi agrees Vp slots which I know he dares not...if he does he will be stoned home and away. If he agrees Vp slot, he should come out n apologizes to delusional Obidogs for wasting their time in 2023

Pinklada:
See how foolish you are, Obi should deputize Northerner when is still the time of Southerners
If Obi agrees on this he will be stoned home n abroad

I am a fool not to know that Tinubu does not see himself as a Southern president. When he filled all positions with Yoruba with a few sprinkle of Ijaw and Igbos, you call him Southern President.
Tinubu is Yoruba president, so let's stop the Southern turn.
Buhari as bad as he was still gave other regions some strategic positions, but all is SW.

You have sense

Bro Kwankwaso is already in APC

Peter Obi has no chance against these folks in the north west and north east., he might not even win those 12 or 13 states he won In 2023, if na that one dey give am confidence, It will no longer be a 3 horse race.

Moreover go and check the 2023 results, see how bad he was in those states he didn't win, he was pulling 30k votes and 70k votes, those are the issues. He performed poorly in over 15-20 states

Wheras, Atiku and Tinubu (SE outside) performed fairly in states they didn't win

9jii:
Obi should just accept VP for now if not the coalition will fail.

Let it fail.

Obi ain't for VP.

If the purpose of the coalition is for Atiku to be the presidential candidate,whereby is not their turn then ,let Tinubu continue.

Atiku could not win North in 2019 and 2023. What makes you think he can win in 2027?

Amitex:
If Kwankwaso is not joining coalition, let Peter Obi deputize Atiku, but the Caveat that Atiku must rule for a single 4 years term. NOT NEGOTIABLE!

My reasoning is simple. If Kwankwaso joins APC, Peter Obi as presidential candidate cannot defeat them. Not that people would not like to vote for him, but APC will use Federal might and presidential might to create voter aparthy in the South through intimidation, ballot box destruction and BVAS machine snatching. From Lagos to Rivers, it would be war, with many fearing to go out to vote. The Police and army will look the other way while election materials are being destroyed. Tinubu will make sure Peter Obi does not win Lagos. The Yorubas will activate Oro and clamp down on Lekki and Amowo-Odofin areas. Even in Alimosho, where Aregbe has a big grassroot support will not be soared.

The outcome would be a lot of polling units results cancelation, while the Northern votes will be 60:40 to APC.

If Kwankwaso joins the coalition, Peter Obi should contest, he will be syre to win and be ready to leave the North to chose their candidate in 2031. That way, Tinubu would be far gone.

If the Northern heavyweights can't convince their people to vote Obi, then let Tinubu continue.

AMINDA:
It's easy to tout the words "work for" but what does that really mean? Unless you expect them to rig the elections for Obi like Wike did in Rivers for Tinubu, then there's only so much they can do. Elections are almost impossible to rig in the North but the people have to be conversant and familiar with whom they are voting for in order to be fully invested.

In 2023, Northerners gave Tinubu 5.6m votes out of his 8.3m inspite of their son Atiku being on the ballot. The number could have been more if not for naira and fuel scarcity. It was a payback to the South for the favour done to Buhari. Unfortunately, Tinubu won, turned around and casted northern allies like Elrufai aside and betrayed northern interests in an arrogant manner.

A good way for Obi to introduce himself to the North will be to deputise Atiku. By 2031, Atiku will be too old to run anyways and Northerners would have familiarised themselves with Obi enough to return the favour and vote him in as president. It's a thing of pride to a Northerner and a religious obligation to keep one's word which is also why they pay back betrayal with equal fierceness. This is not an emotional analysis. It's reality.

DMerciful:
If the Northern heavyweights can't convince their people to vote Obi, then let Tinubu continue.

No problem. Just make sure you stand on the queue and vote Tinubu on that day. For every vote Tinubu gets in the South, Northerners will double it for Atiku.

9jii:
Obi should just accept VP for now if not the coalition will fail.

That have been settled already

It's Atiku/Obi

A repeat of 2019 combo on the platform of ADC come 2027

Election will be over before 12noon

Tinubu will be beaten blue black like a common criminal that he is

Why didnt Northerners vote for Atiku in 2023?

AMINDA:
No problem. Just make sure you stand on the queue and vote Tinubu on that day. For every vote Tinubu gets in the South, Northerners will double it for Atiku.

DMerciful:
Why didnt Northerners vote for Atiku in 2023?

Good question. Because respected Northern leaders like Elrufai pricked the conscience of young Northerners reminding them how one good turn deserves another and why they need to allow power shift to the South. This was how Tinubu got 5.6m votes from the North out of his total 8.3m. Atiku managed to get 6.9m votes which suggests an almost 50-50 split. How did Tinubu react after winning? He betrayed Elrufai and arrogantly began to make unfavourable decisions inspite of the hardship. Nepotistic appointments to only yorubas, arrested underaged Northern hunger protesters while jailing Northern elders who spoke out like Prof Yusuf. Like I said, the North has an axe to grind with Tinubu in 2027.

So has the turn of the South elapsed after just 4yrs?

AMINDA:
Good question. Because respected Northern leaders like Elrufai pricked the conscience of young Northerners reminding them how one good turn deserves another and why they need to allow power shift to the South. This was how Tinubu got 5.6m votes from the North out of his total 8.3m. Atiku managed to get 6.9m votes which suggests an almost 50-50 split. How did Tinubu react after winning? He betrayed Elrufai and arrogantly began to make unfavourable decisions inspite of the hardship. Nepotistic appointments to only yorubas, arrested underaged Northern hunger protesters while jailing Northern elders who spoke out like Prof Yusuf. Like I said, the North has an axe to grind with Tinubu in 2027.

AMINDA:
Please don't quote me again with your aggressive language. Go right ahead and do whatever that pleases you. Even if the elections become North vs South, the North will still have the advantage. That's a bitter truth. Tinubu won 5.6m votes from the North. He has since lost more than 80% of those votes and he has largely lost it to Atiku. In 2023, there was huge voter apathy in the North so that is not even the real voting strength of the North. On the other hand, no region ever won an election without alliances. Obi will remain in the coalition, you can go ahead to vote Tinubu.

No one has even said Atiku needs to run with Obi. The coalition can still proceed without Obidients. Infact, a repeat of the 3-horse race in 2027 will see Tinubu coming a distant third. This is because Obi will defeat him again convincingly in the South while he will lose majority of the 5.6m votes Northerners gave him in 2023 to Atiku. The Southwest alone cannot make Tinubu win the election but neither can Obi but Obidients are free to merge their votes with Tinubu. On the other hand, the impending release of Nnamdi Kanu means that Obi and the Southeast actually needs the coalition more than the coalition needs them. No one is in a position to be issuing threats.
Bye!

If Obi can't have it this time, Atiku too should forget it both now and forever.
The mass publicity and support the coalition enjoys since its inauguration is simply because of Obi's presence there.
If Obi leaves the coalition, it becomes empty, you can take that to the bank. If the North's & Atiku's greediness would not allow them throw their weight behind Obi's president, then let Tinubu continue with his havoc.
I can tell you that before the 2031, the north will be at the forefront for secession because I know Tinubu will match out hard with his real plans which he suspended for the sake of second term.

Gjrich:
If Obi can't have it this time, Atiku too should forget it both now and forever.
The mass publicity and support the coalition enjoys since its inauguration is simply because of Obi's presence there.
If Obi leaves the coalition, it becomes empty, you can take that to the bank. If the North's & Atiku's greediness would not allow them throw their weight behind Obi's president, then let Tinubu continue with his havoc.
I can tell you that before the 2031, the north will be at the forefront for secession because I know Tinubu will match out hard with his real plans which he suspended for the sake of second term.

I thought I just told you to go ahead and vote Tinubu? Why quote me again? Obidients need the coalition more than the coalition needs them. They should feel free at any point time to leave the coalition. Obi did not have more votes than Atiku in the last election. Being loud is not a sign of strength. Tell Obi to go back to LP and contest or better still, go vote your Tinubu in peace.

Amitex:
My friend, the North will vote for Peter Obi, but I can bet you that he cannot defeat a ticket that has Kwankwaso on it in the North. The only person that can floor Tinubu/Kwankwaso ticket in the North today is Atiku Abubakar.
An Atiku-Obi ticket will win the election by 10.00 am. Infact the APC will give up ten days to the elections because, Atiku will clear the North, whether Kwankwaso or not, while Obi will white-wash Tinubu in the South.

So the north will vote their own while south is ok with deputy.
Abeg make Tinubu kuku finish his 8yrs

richmond500:
So the north will vote their own while south is ok with deputy.
Abeg make Tinubu kuku finish his 8yrs

Says a hardcore Tinubu supporter. Is this the new strategy? Posing as an Obi supporter. When did Tinubu become the Southern president? Northerners made him President with 5.6m votes out of his total 8.3m. He never won the South. Tinubu is the Muslim-Muslim candidate.

AMINDA:
Says a hardcore Tinubu supporter. Is this the new strategy? Posing as an Obi supporter. When did Tinubu become the Southern president? Northerners made him President with 5.6m votes out of his total 8.3m. He never won the South. Tinubu is the Muslim-Muslim candidate.

I am not Hardcore Tinubu supporter though I am still Tinubu supporter. But my hatred for Wike far surpasses my love for Tinubu.

The only reason I'll support the coalition is because I am seeing Wikes downfall if the coalition succeeds, what he wished for Rivers state will come back to him

richmond500:
I am not Hardcore Tinubu supporter though I am still Tinubu supporter. But my hatred for Wike far surpasses my love for Tinubu.

The only reason I'll support the coalition is because I am seeing Wikes downfall if the coalition succeeds, what he wished for Rivers state will come back to him

Nice one 👏 at least you've grown some ballz and spoken like a man. I was wondering why a FULLY grown person will be hiding his support while attacking others relentlessly like aswani but I doff my cap 🧢

You've earned my respect with this post. Now I will be seeing you as someone who speaks with one mouth instead of 50 . . .

Like aswani 😏

Amitex:
If Kwankwaso is not joining coalition, let Peter Obi deputize Atiku, but the Caveat that Atiku must rule for a single 4 years term. NOT NEGOTIABLE!

My reasoning is simple. If Kwankwaso joins APC, Peter Obi as presidential candidate cannot defeat them. Not that people would not like to vote for him, but APC will use Federal might and presidential might to create voter aparthy in the South through intimidation, ballot box destruction and BVAS machine snatching. From Lagos to Rivers, it would be war, with many fearing to go out to vote. The Police and army will look the other way while election materials are being destroyed. Tinubu will make sure Peter Obi does not win Lagos. The Yorubas will activate Oro and clamp down on Lekki and Amowo-Odofin areas. Even in Alimosho, where Aregbe has a big grassroot support will not be soared.

The outcome would be a lot of polling units results cancelation, while the Northern votes will be 60:40 to APC.

If Kwankwaso joins the coalition, Peter Obi should contest, he will be syre to win and be ready to leave the North to chose their candidate in 2031. That way, Tinubu would be far gone.

Even without federal might. Obi on his own cannot defeat Tinubu. Let’s assume that Obi takes all the states in the South south and South east, that makes 9 states with 16% and 11% vote share respectively. Let’s also assume they split the North central with 3 each. Obi takes Benue, Nassarawa and Plateau and Tinubu definitely takes Niger, Kogi and Kwara. That makes 12 states. Obi is polling 10% or less in the North west which is 24% of total votes and has 7 states. North east has 6 states (with 13% total vote) and Obi can only plausibly win Taraba. Making 13 states now. Ok Lets even give Obi Lagos again in the South west. That’s 14 states. Meaning Tinubu takes 22 states.

Obi needs very extensive networks in the north to stand a chance at winning. His emergence in 2023 only served Tinubu by splitting the vote Atiku would’ve got in the North central….he didn’t stand a chance at winning in 2023 but played the role of spoiler for Atiku. He stands a much lesser chance in 2027 unless he teams up with a strong northerner.

Here is the basic arithmetic of vote share by region and you can do with maths yourself.

NW: 23.6%. (7 states) SW: 18.4% (6 states)
NE: 13%. (6 states) SS: 16% (6 states)
NC: 16%. (6 states) SE: 11% (5 states)

This is based on INEC data from registered voters in the different zones. Ok so how can Obi win without a single NW state and maybe 1 NE state and 3 NC states? So he comes out with 4 states out of the entire 19 northern states…that is not competitive at all.

Elections are a game of numbers and calculations not a game of emotions, fanaticism, or wishful thinking.

brain54:
I expect they have already negotiated positions...

And agreed on these things before agreeing to join and form this coalition!

We are talking about Nigerian politicians here, they are all, not just those in ADC, untrustworthy.

Whatever agreement they make only stands there and then, as soon as they walk out of the room, they are making plans to do other things outside the agreement to strengthen themselves and weaken others. Worse thing is they won't bat an eyelid doing it.

Look at Turai and her cabal against Goodluck, Bubu and his cabal against President Tinubu and of course, Atiku and his cabal against Southern Zoning. Flouting established, albeit unwritten, agreements like it was nothing.

Agreement is not an agreement!

Ofunaofu:
That have been settled already

It's Atiku/Obi

A repeat of 2019 combo on the platform of ADC come 2027

Election will be over before 12noon

Tinubu will be beaten blue black like a common criminal that he is

Only Atiku supporter are saying this. And because you are one is the only you can accept

9jii:
Only Atiku supporter are saying this. And because you are one is the only you can accept

Nigerians are saying it

Amitex:
My friend, the North will vote for Peter Obi, but I can bet you that he cannot defeat a ticket that has Kwankwaso on it in the North. The only person that can floor Tinubu/Kwankwaso ticket in the North today is Atiku Abubakar.
An Atiku-Obi ticket will win the election by 10.00 am. Infact the APC will give up ten days to the elections because, Atiku will clear the North, whether Kwankwaso or not, while Obi will white-wash Tinubu in the South.

Atiku/Obi ticket cannot defeat Tinubu/Kwakwanso ticket in the north west and north central.

seunmsg:
Atiku/Obi ticket cannot defeat Tinubu/Kwakwanso ticket in the north west and north central.

But Kwankwaso ran in 2023 and was only able to win Kano state. His performance was terrible in every other north west state. Atiku won 3 north west states of Kaduna, Sokoto and Kebbi and the difference between Tinubu and Atiku in Katsina was 0.8%. I don’t think kwankwaso’s influence goes beyond Kano. He will bring Kano but no where else.

gadogado:
But Kwankwaso ran in 2023 and was only able to win Kano state. His performance was terrible in every other north west state. Atiku won 3 north west states of Kaduna, Sokoto and Kebbi and the difference between Tinubu and Atiku in Katsina was 0.8%. I don’t think kwankwaso’s influence goes beyond Kano. He will bring Kano but no where else.

Structure helps a lot in politics. If Kwakwanso had contested on the platform of APC and not NNPP, he would have cleared the entire North west. In 2027, the PDP structure won’t be available for Atiku. In fact, with the formation of ADC, it would be very easy for Tinubu to negotiate alliance with whatever is left of PDP. Now, put a Kwakwanso on that ticket with Tinubu, huge financial power, FG might and a promise to handover to Kwakwanso in 2031, it will be a clean sweep. Kano alone will deliver over 1.5m votes.


Atiku is not a very popular politician in the north west. Northern sentiment and PDP structure gave him those votes. It’s funny seeing how people think Atiku has a sure 6.9million voters willing to vote him every election cycle. He won Osun in 2023, he won’t even get 10% in Osun in 2027. So pls, understand how this things work and stop making false assumptions.

seunmsg:
Structure helps a lot in politics. If Kwakwanso had contested on the platform of APC and not NNPP, he would have cleared the entire North west. In 2027, the PDP structure won’t be available for Atiku. In fact, with the formation of ADC, it would be very easy for Tinubu to negotiate alliance with whatever is left of PDP. Now, put a Kwakwanso on that ticket with Tinubu, huge financial power, FG might and a promise to handover to Kwakwanso in 2031, it will be a clean sweep. Kano alone will deliver over 1.5m votes.


Atiku is not a very popular politician in the north west. Northern sentiment and PDP structure gave him those votes. It’s funny seeing how people think Atiku has a sure 6.9million voters willing to vote him every election cycle. He won Osun in 2023, he won’t even get 10% in Osun in 2027. So pls, understand how this things work and stop making false assumptions.

Great submission
Atiku is sure going to be molested in the south in 2027 .