₦airaland Forum

A political storm is brewing in Osun State as speculation intensifies over Governor Ademola Adeleke’s alleged plan to defect from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The unfolding drama has not only sent shockwaves through the political establishment in the state but also ignited widespread debate about party loyalty, opposition survival, and the strategic implications ahead of the 2026 governorship election.

While Adeleke has not yet made an official declaration, the intensity of alignments and counter-reactions suggests that the defection rumour may not be mere political gossip. In a state where electoral margins have been razor-thin in recent years, Adeleke’s next political move could have far-reaching consequences.

Within the PDP, the governor’s perceived exit plan has left members uncertain and disoriented. Party loyalists worry about their political future without Adeleke, whose popularity and incumbency are central to the party’s strength in Osun.

On the flip side, APC members are cautious, fearing that Adeleke’s arrival could lead to a massive shake-up of internal structures and potentially sideline loyalists who have sustained the party since its 2022 loss.

Political watchers warn that Adeleke’s defection, if realised, could deal a near-fatal blow to multiparty competition in the state. Historically, Osun’s political space has revolved around two dominant parties — the APC (formerly AD and ACN) and the PDP. Should Adeleke decamp with his loyalists, the APC would gain overwhelming dominance, while the only visible alternative, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), remains relatively obscure among the electorate.

The electoral data from the last two major elections in Osun State offer a nuanced perspective. In the 2022 governorship race, Adeleke secured 403,371 votes against then-incumbent Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the APC, who garnered 375,027 — a margin of just over 28,000 votes or roughly 3 per cent. A year later, during the 2023 presidential election, the PDP again edged out the APC in Osun with 353,860 votes to 342,941, a slim margin of fewer than 11,000 votes.

These statistics raise a critical question: does the APC, which remains competitive on its own, truly need Adeleke for electoral victory in 2026? For many within the party, the answer is a firm no. Yet the governor’s significant influence, access to state resources, and loyal political base make him an undeniably attractive, albeit controversial asset.



2 senators quit PDP as party structures prepare to move with gov

While neither of them has publicly declared their next political destinations, Senators Olubiyi Fadeyi and Francis Fadahunsi have reportedly resigned from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), citing irreconcilable differences and lingering internal crises within the party. Analysts suggest the move may be part of broader preparations for Governor Adeleke’s potential defection.

Fadeyi, who represents Osun Central in the National Assembly, announced his resignation in a letter dated July 12, addressed to the PDP Ward 3 Chairman in Oke Ejigbo, Ila Orangun, Osun State.

Similarly, Fadahunsi, the senator representing Osun East, tendered his resignation in a letter addressed to the PDP Ward 4 Chairman in Obokun Local Government Area, also dated July 12.

Observers note that should Adeleke switch parties, he is unlikely to do so alone.

At a stakeholders’ meeting held at the Government House Banquet Hall in Osogbo, top PDP leaders unanimously pledged their loyalty to the governor and indicated their readiness to follow him to any political platform.

The high-powered meeting included representation from virtually every layer of the party and government: the National and State Assembly caucuses, the State Executive Council, the Special Advisers’ Forum, the elders’ caucus, and the leadership of the Association of Local Governments of Nigeria (ALGON). The PDP state leadership collectively resolved to defect with Adeleke if he makes the move.

Notable attendees included Deputy Governor Prince Kola Adewusi; Senate Deputy Minority Leader, Senator Lere Oyewumi; House of Representatives members Bamidele Sallam, Clement Olohunwa, and Taofeek Abimbola Ajilesoro; and the governor’s sister, High Chief Modupeola Adeleke.

Also present were South West PDP Vice Chairman, Engr Kamorudeen Ajisafe; Osun PDP Chairman, Hon Sunday Bisi; Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Rt Hon Adewale Egbedun; Deputy Speaker, Rt Hon Ireyode Oyewusi; Secretary to the State Government, Hon Teslim Igbalaye; and the Chief of Staff to the Governor, Hon Kazeem Akinleye.

Osun State commissioners have also vowed to defect alongside the governor.

Speaking on behalf of the Commissioners’ Forum, Aare Ganiyu Ayobami Olaoluwa Asejere described Adeleke’s leadership as “purposeful, inclusive and people-centred.”

“We unanimously resolved that wherever our Governor leads, we shall follow,” he declared.

Similarly, Dr Adekunle Akindele, Special Adviser on Public Health, said all special advisers have resolved to remain with Adeleke, regardless of his next political destination.

In Adeleke’s stronghold of Ede South Local Government Area, the PDP’s entire local structure has also pledged to defect.

Local government chairman Hon Lukman Afolabi and party leaders from all ten wards also endorsed the governor, promising to move en masse with him.

“We don’t need him”, APC leaders push back

Despite the groundswell of support for Adeleke within the PDP, APC leaders in Osun appear divided — and in some quarters, outright hostile to his potential defection.

Osun APC spokesman, Mogaji Kola Olabisi, insisted that the party leadership was unaware of any official approach by the governor. “Our national leader, Chief Bisi Akande; National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru; former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola; and the state chairman, Sooko Tajudeen Lawal, have not been briefed about Adeleke’s defection. So, it remains a rumour,” he said.

Senator Iyiola Omisore was more scathing. He accused Adeleke of desperately lobbying to join the APC, including seeking assistance from Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun. “What is Adeleke bringing to APC? Nothing,” Omisore stated. “I have never seen a sitting governor begging to join a party. If he is popular enough, let him take a new party.”

Kehinde Ayantunji, a former Senior Special Assistant to Oyetola on Social Mobilisation, was similarly dismissive. “The governor is politically stranded. He is desperate for asylum in APC, but he must discuss with our leaders first,” he warned.

Ayantunji cited several concerns, including contract inflation, abuse of judiciary processes, sacking of health and education workers, and political violence. He cautioned that Adeleke’s defection could demoralise grassroots APC members who had sustained the party post-2022.

“We must be very careful in accepting a governor with such burdens. Many of our members are traumatised by this rumour. They have invested heavily in rebuilding this party, and it would be wrong to accept him wholesale without proper scrutiny,” Ayantunji said.

One of APC’s 2026 governorship aspirants, Dr Akin Ogunbiyi, has downplayed concerns over Adeleke’s rumoured defection. Speaking after formally declaring his interest at the APC secretariat in Osogbo, Ogunbiyi said the governor’s alleged move is no threat.



Analysts slam political opportunism

The governor’s alleged shift has also sparked strong condemnation from political analysts. Comrade Waheed Saka described the move as “a shameless, self-serving betrayal” and said it underscores the ideological bankruptcy of Nigerian politics.

He lamented what he called “jumpology” — the unprincipled party-switching by politicians — and accused Adeleke of undermining grassroots loyalty. “What else can we expect from these political mercenaries?” he asked.

Another analyst, who requested anonymity, questioned the governor’s need to force himself into the APC, considering his popularity. “If he is truly popular, why not go to another party like the SDP or LP?” the analyst asked. “Unlike PDP, APC has structure and internal discipline. He will be given conditions — and they will be binding.”


No room in ADC after Aregbesola face-off

While some have speculated that Adeleke could join the ADC if the APC plan falls through, that option seems closed following a recent spat with former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, who now not only aligns with the party but serves as its interim National Secretary. At a rally in Osogbo, Aregbesola declared that the ADC would win the 2026 election and remove Adeleke from power — a remark that clearly rattled the governor.

In his rebuttal, Adeleke reminded the public of Aregbesola’s “sordid legacy” as governor and dismissed his electoral prospects. The public clash has effectively eliminated any chance of alliance between Adeleke and the ADC.

Observers note that with political manoeuvring intensifying in Osun ahead of 2026, Adeleke’s next move — whether to stay, defect, or reposition — may redefine the political architecture of the state for years to come.

Politicstoday:
Why will Adeleke decamp to APC in the first place.

Zico5:
That governor is a mumu. I don't know what he is looking for in APC. This show desperation of political class in Nigeria. You are moving to where you are not wanted and you want people to follow you. That guy needs wisdom

Politicstoday:
Why will Adeleke decamp to APC in the first place.

Politicstoday:
https://dailytrust.com/osun-2026-confusion-in-pdp-unease-in-apc-as-adeleke-mulls-defections/

Politicstoday:
Why will Adeleke decamp to APC in the first place.

APCNig:
SW and SS in the bag. SE can give 100% of their one sided vote to Paul Biya of Cameroon.

Zeebuy:
22 governors supported Jonathan's bid but he still lost.
Let me see how tinubu will win, even without the support of the north

Politicstoday:
Why will Adeleke decamp to APC in the first place.