Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win - Politics - Nairaland
Nairaland Forum › Nairaland General › Politics › Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win (1560 Views)
| Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by ibabz(op): 5:33pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
With the sudden re-emergence of Goodluck Jonathan into Nigeria’s presidential equation, it’s clear that what we’re witnessing is not politics as usual, it’s political theatre with deeper scripts and hidden actors. This isn't just about winning an election. It’s about managing outcomes, preserving interests, and safeguarding power structures. The PDP, once the ruling giant, has become what many now call an extension of the APC; subtle in opposition, but loud in compliance. Their latest move to project Jonathan as a "consensus candidate" reeks not of ambition, but of strategy. A careful observer will realize that this candidacy is less about victory and more about influence, negotiation, and control. But why would the PDP field a candidate they don't intend to help win? The answer lies in the quiet alliances and unspoken agreements that now define Nigerian politics. A significant number of PDP chieftains, especially those from the South, have already defected to the APC, while others maintain comfortable ties with the ruling party behind closed doors. For them, opposition is only a costume they dine from the same pot. So, even if APC continues in power till 2031, PDP’s top players will continue to eat. The game goes on. From Jonathan’s side, there may be more personal motivations. This could be his opportunity to “return the favour” to Atiku whose actions led to his dramatic fall in 2015. This candidacy offers him a chance to play the kingmaker or even the spoiler. Let’s not forget: PDP is broke. So broke, it couldn't afford the tenement rates on its own property. The emergence of Jonathan likely signals that someone, somewhere is bankrolling this mission. And that kind of funding doesn't come without expectation. Rumours suggest support from powerful financial blocs tied to the ruling structure, possibly to the tune of hundreds of billions. Jonathan will definitely not run alone. Speculations point to a possible alliance with Rabiu Kwankwaso, a strong northern figure who has previously expressed willingness to collaborate with Tinubu. In a bizarre twist of political loyalty, we could see a ticket engineered not to win, but to divide, especially in regions critical to Atiku and Obi. Let’s move beyond the names and look at the numbers. Based on projections (previously discussed), a free and fair election could look like this: Atiku + Obi: 9.8 – 11.5 million votes Tinubu + Shettima: 6.7 – 8.3 million votes Jonathan + Kwankwaso: 4.5 – 5.5 million votes If these figures hold in an unmanipulated process, it becomes nearly impossible for the APC to secure another term, given their poor performance and dwindling popularity. But here’s the twist: what if the outcome was never meant to depend on actual votes? Many Nigerians still remember what transpired in the Edo gubernatorial elections, allegations of votes being "allocated," not counted. The fear is that this model could be scaled nationally. If such a plan is being carefully orchestrated, we may be staring not at an election, but at a pre-written script; votes already distributed in secret, only waiting for names to be filled in. Take the Southeast for example. With about 2.4 million votes projected, Atiku and Obi are expected to dominate. But with both Obi and Jonathan pulling votes from similar bases, those votes could be artificially split or strategically redirected through "allocation" to Jonathan or even neutralized altogether. The same scenario may unfold in the North, where Jonathan’s running mate, likely a strong northern figure could be used to mop up swing votes and dilute Atiku’s influence. Then comes the darker theory; vote buying at an industrial scale. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the ruling party may be prepared to offer up to N100,000 per vote in some regions. That’s not just desperation, it’s a declaration of war on democracy. And if this is true, one must ask: how many Nigerians, under the weight of hunger and hopelessness, would say no to such an offer? It doesn't stop there. There's also the possibility that APC could fund PDP’s vote buying efforts in regions where APC has become a symbol of hardship and is sure to be rejected. For instance, in the core North, where sentiment might heavily favour Atiku, the ruling party might sponsor strategic vote buying not to win votes for APC, but to bleed votes from Atiku by boosting Jonathan’s numbers artificially. The game, therefore, isn't about candidates. It's about vote cannibalism; divide the opposition, weaken their base, and keep the ruling structure intact. As it stands, this election may not be decided by rallies or manifestos, but by backroom deals, financial warfare and data-driven manipulation. The PDP and APC may be playing on different sides of the board, but they might just be part of the same team behind the scenes. Goodluck Jonathan’s entry is not the twist in the story, it may be the smokescreen for the twist yet to come. And when that twist lands, Nigerians will be left wondering whether they were ever voting... or simply participating in a well-produced illusion. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by Ddeliverer007(m): 6:40pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
Will Jonathan not divide the votes the south that a tinubu hopes to win? Will the strong northern not collect Tinubu’s northern vote? How can tinubu win 2027?? Very impossibl. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by JustAvo: 7:28pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
ibabz:An interesting epistle... Was discussing something similar with someone after d news of his (Dr. Goodluck) possible return broke. We dey watch em.... |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by helinues: 7:30pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
Honestly, the supporters of the opposition are not sharp. If you are talking about GEJ, what should now happen to both Atiku and Peter Obi So you guys couldn't pick that news is just to distract and confuse the opposition |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by DaInferno(m): 7:32pm On Aug 07, 2025*. Modified: 3:33pm On Aug 08, 2025 |
I hope he never returns. This bullshit shouldn't fly in the first place if we all remember how thieving this country was during this mans tenure. That we've had bad times in this country doesn't mean we should forget those who where the root cause of where we are today. Tinubu, Buhari have been very deplorable, but it doesn't mean Jonathan is the Messiah we need right now. Before I forget, Neither is Atiku |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by kedeojo(m): 7:53pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
DaInferno:You people are so scared that obi will fade away when Jonathan participate. Jonathan is still better than obi and he will easily get votes in the north which obi can't penetrate. Those Christian votes obi scored in the north out of fear of Muslim Muslim ticket of APC has gone. Since the news, igbos has been crying and attacking Jonathan in Facebook and Twitter. They are tribalistic too but always pretend but they will be exposed soonest. Imagine igbos saying the voted for Obasanjo a Yoruba, was he their choice in 1999. They just voted pdp ever since but pullout in 2023 when they couldn't get the ticket. Most all the major tribe in Nigeria are tribalistic, so nobody should act as saint. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by DaInferno(m): 8:08pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
Read your first sentence and immediately couldnt continue. I tried my possible best to not mention any well meaning politicians name let alone Obi so people wouldnt resort to saying things like this. I can never forget the rot and decay these country went through. Furthermore, the sole reason why you mentioned obi is bcus you know who is supposed to lead amongst the 2. At the end of the day, we all know what we are doing don't we?! I leave you with this. Jonathan would be hung in countries like China the day he handed over. kedeojo: |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by THEGALADIMA(m): 8:14pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
Well thought out, well written. A Machiavellian genius you are. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by ibabz(op): 9:03pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
THEGALADIMA:Machiavellian? It’s one of my all-time favorite reads. Once you dive into that book, you don’t come out the same, it shifts something in you. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by ibabz(op): 9:15pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
helinues:Oh really? If there's one thing politics has taught me, it's that every rumor holds a grain of truth until it’s undeniably disproven. This might sound like another conspiracy theory, but remember my take on Kwankwaso being the next pawn? You all waved it off as baseless speculation… only for Kwankwaso himself to step forward and validate exactly what I’d predicted. It’s funny, but not ha-ha funny how so many of you still can’t read between the lines of Tinubu’s political chess game. I’ve been studying this man’s moves since 1999. Nothing he does surprises me anymore. I can almost predict his next step before he takes it. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by Rutherford2019: 9:27pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
The greatest fear of Tinubu is if Jonathan joins the race Let me tell you plan.. Obi will will not run if Jonathan is running It will be difficult to convince Wike and South South to vote for Tinubu instead of Jonathan..infact South South will betray Tinubu NB Tinubu is banking on block votes from South South and South West for 2027 The only region that will not vote for Jonathan is SW If PDP leaders can convince Atiku, Elrufai and IBB and Obasanjo to back Jonathan then Tinubu is a gonna The only impediment to Jonathan presidency is if Atiku is running, South South will be skeptical of backing Jonathan because they'll think that North want to play them to divide southern votes in favor of Atiku |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by ibabz(op): 9:36pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
Rutherford2019:I respect your opinion but disagree. Do you think PDP wants to win the presidential election? You think OBJ, IBB and Elrufai are still members of PDP? Do you think Jonathan really wants to win the election? |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by Rexymania(m): 9:38pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
This is interesting Jonathan PDP Atiku ADC Tinubu APC Obi LP That will be epic |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by AMINDA: 11:29pm On Aug 07, 2025 |
ibabz:PDP is not equal to Wike. PDP only wanted to neutralize Atiku, not to destroy their party. With Atiku deftly leaving the party, they are now scrambling to save the party (bar Wike). They desperately need resuscitation by fielding a big name (GEJ or Obi). Why would Jonathan contest knowingly with the intention of being a spoiler just to save Tinubu? He's far too big for that. It's as ridiculous as those claiming El-Rufai is working for Tinubu. If GEJ contests, he would best Tinubu in the South and take away all Northern votes that would have accrued to Tinubu with Atiku getting the rest of the Northern votes. Where then will Tinubu get his margins from outside of the Southwest? |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by carzeem1: 5:28am On Aug 08, 2025 |
If Jonathan declared to run, it's game over for Atiku n Obi. It's most certain He would have consulted all the Northern power brokers with a formidable deputy picked to neutralised anything Tinubu's team will do in North west. The only contest is between him n incumbent due to power of incumbency. He fits perfectly into all the puzzles of single term for south, payback for Tinubu's poor judgement in appointment, subsidy brouhaha, unification of Forex etc, Nigerians yearning for respite from the hardship of Tinubu's policies and nostalgia of the good old days where prices of commodities were almost free in comparison to today's price. Jonathan will defeat Tinubu and neutralise all the additional voting strength he gained I'm the south south and north central. North east if Atiku soft pedals will go to Jonathan 80 percent. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by ibabz(op): 6:20am On Aug 08, 2025 |
carzeem1:Love your opinion, but I see it differently. Tinubu is the grandmaster behind this entire game. If you study the board carefully, you’ll notice he didn’t pick Jonathan by accident, it’s a calculated move to split Peter Obi’s stronghold in the South-East and South-South. Jonathan’s presence means those two regions will now be shared between him and Obi, automatically shrinking Obi’s influence there. Meanwhile, Tinubu has kept his own bloc under lock and key; the South-West with estimated votes of about 18million votes remains untouched. While the North’s votes will be a battlefield for everyone, but the South-West is still his fortress. The only real threat to his dominance there would be if a heavyweight Yoruba candidate like Osinbajo joined the race, but I’m certain Osinbajo will never take that risk. This is pure chess: every piece moved with intent, every counter-move anticipated. If you understand the game, you’ll see exactly what he’s doing. And if you watch closely, you will see that Tinubu is thinking ten moves ahead while everyone else is still deciding their first. I hope you can understand the game plan. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by ibabz(op): 6:25am On Aug 08, 2025 |
AMINDA:I agree, PDP is not Wike. But tell me, is Wike truly bound by the colours of any party? Between Jonathan and Tinubu, where do you think his shadow will fall? And in this Nigeria we know too well, can you point to even one PDP giant who has not, openly or in whispers, aligned with Tinubu’s return to power? Now, picture this. You are Jonathan. A figure from the past offers you up to $1 billion for your campaign. You know in your heart that the throne is beyond your reach, yet the very act of contesting grants you something more precious than victory: the chance to strike back at the man who once conspired to end your reign. And here’s the beauty of it, you might spend no more than ₦10 billion from that vast sum, and the rest becomes… let’s just say, a quiet reward for your troubles. In politics, money is not merely currency; it is the weapon that turns enemies into allies, and impossibilities into decisions. And in this land, no politician is too noble to be bought, only too proud to admit the price. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by carzeem1: 6:33am On Aug 08, 2025*. Modified: 7:02am On Aug 08, 2025 |
ibabz:Obi probably won't contest if Jonathan's throw his hat in the ring. Atiku's chances are close to zero without Obi as vice and he knows he stands no chance against Jonathan in the whole south and North west with a formidable vice president The Northern Elites will prefer the presidency remains in south another 4 years than scuttle the zoning again. The logical reasoning will be to side with Jonathan who has proven to be pliable than a Tinubu that has an antecedent of breaking ladders he climbed on to build his own political fiefdom. Also, Tinubu has no 18 million vote anywhere waiting for him. He only has Ekiti, and maybe Osun at close to 80 percent which is not even up to the voting strength of only small Kebbi state. Lagos even if manipulated, he still cant get half of the voting strength. Labour party without structure floored him just simply by social media movement that snowballed even with a sitting governor, hundreds of political billionaires he empowered singlehandedly, grassroot local government he always boast of controlling and thousands of political appointees and he still lost. Mind you, the results were far from the true reflection of what transpired in Lagos. He is good negotiator that understands how to weaponize greed and poverty inherent in people which is very prevalent in Nigeria. That's what it is, no super power any where. Just people in sensitive positions allowing thier greed and vanity take priority over the common people's choice and welfare, these are the people he uses to launch and sustain his political empire. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by Houseontherock1: 6:36am On Aug 08, 2025 |
DaInferno:GEJ is better than any candidate any party can present in 2027. All the other candidates- including GEJ- have all tasted power, they all messed up but GEJ is still a much more tolerable evil than any other |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by DaInferno(m): 6:58am On Aug 08, 2025 |
Houseontherock1:we've been too used to bad governance, That's why people will say things like this and btw, what is with this country and bringing back former presidents?! How old would you be after 2027, what has Jonathan told you he's going to do so differently than the last time? What credible thing has he done since 2015? Has he accounted for the money Diezani stole whilst been in nnpc? Has he visited Christians in Benue/ Plateau? Has he visited flooded or IDP victims? Has he adviced his successors or had meetings to do what will change atleast one thing in this country? How about speaking on the rights of pensioners? Education? Did he utter a word on the Jamb fiasco? How about the welfare of nurses in different institutions across the nation? Where has Jonathan stood to say where he went wrong and how he can do better. This "tolerable evil" thingy you mentioned is just another thing people tell themselves so they can continue to tolerate stupid leaders. I can go on and on Anybody who wants Jonathan to come back is just for selfish reasons. Come 2027 vote Jonathan. After election, who go survive go survive. Nobody go beg your papa to do the right |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by descarado: 7:03am On Aug 08, 2025 |
Surprisingly, if Jonathan decides to run, he will get a very lukewarm welcome. Contrary to what others may think, we all know why Jonathan is being courted. He will not get any vote from South East. Time south east start playing national politics the right way instead of using emotions. The best bet as it is for them right now is the north. North has fully extended their hands, they will be very stupid not to grab it. Jonathan coming g to the table is working against them and yes, south east need this. South South can follow Jonathan. Right now, it's to your teeth oh isreal. All zones should work for what favours them. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by Osebanjo(m): 7:06am On Aug 08, 2025 |
GEJ is the only southern solution for PDP at the moment if we are being honest |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by Osebanjo(m): 7:12am On Aug 08, 2025 |
descarado:GEJ might eventually contest because the North indeed needs a southerner that won’t cross the 4 year tenure constitutionally. The votes in the north will be shared between GEJ, APC and Atiku for sure. South will do Atiku dirty unless Obi agree to be his running mate. SW will definitely follow PBAT and he’ll be getting few votes across SS with the defections going on there. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by AMINDA: 7:17am On Aug 08, 2025 |
ibabz:Lol. 1 billion dollars? Are you having a laugh? Who exactly conspired against him that he's coming to take revenge on, Atiku or Tinubu? So we are supposed to believe that Tinubu will offer Jonathan money just to come and make his reelection bid harder and more complicated? In 2023, Tinubu could afford to have a third force from the South because he had substantial support in the North. If he tries the same strategy in 2027, he will be toast because his Northern bloc of votes is gone. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by descarado: 7:32am On Aug 08, 2025 |
Osebanjo:You do not know the north. If atiku is contesting, who is Jonathan? North never rated him anyway. Na south east carry the man for head and as it is bc of obi, south east no rate am again. Also, wike spoil show for any south south politician. Jonathan can never convince anybody he is not working with wike. And come to think of it, wike is doing all these for a vp slot 2031. Jonathan coming out already nullifies that plan. 2027 election is what paves way for 2031 so stakeholders have that in mind. Also, if Jonathan comes out, he is a weakling. Seems like he dont enjoy the goodwill he got before and want to soil it. Pdp should field wike, afterall he is from ss. He dont want to contest cos the permutation with tinubu is to make pdp presidential election unattainable so tinubu will come out unopposed in the south. He initially planned to scuttle all the political parties and ride alone but he and his team never saw the coalition coming so they are using plan B to Z at the moment. Sponsoring smear campaign against obi is not working either. He resorted to using state apparatus and that one failed. Nice game, we dey side dey watch. It will be fun. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by AMINDA: 8:15am On Aug 08, 2025 |
The problem with 2027 is that Tinubu panicked and unveiled most of his cards too early. The effect of all governors and politicians decamping has now been neutralized and no-one is talking about decamping to the APC again. Even the effect of Kwankwaso joining the APC has now been doused because it is anticipated, even though it may not eventually materialise. It's not a coincidence that we didn't see much decamping in the North and governors like Umo Eno and Sheriff are now finding it difficult with their people. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by ibabz(op): 8:20am On Aug 08, 2025 |
descarado:It seems you’re a chess player as well… already reading the opening moves. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by Didijiji: 8:22am On Aug 08, 2025 |
We were in Heaven under GEJ before these Ojota demons laid siege on our nations health Imagine we got rice at 8k Egg was 25 You could buy clean used cars at 600k Omor SW hurt Nigeria ooooo Thank God they got they power they soooo yearned for and MADE A MESS of it We demand a national apology |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by Bendeco02: 8:23am On Aug 08, 2025 |
Jonathan can't win but him contesting is advantage to Atiku/Obi. Atiku will surely win NW/NE, Obi will win SE and get enough votes in NC/SS combined. SS will be shared between Obi, Jonathan and tinubu. Why i included tinubu is because of SS governors supporting him. When you check everthing you don't need anyone to tell you that Atiku/Obi have advantage if both of them contest together. With Jonathan on the race it will be hard for tinubu even with result manipulation. |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by ibabz(op): 8:48am On Aug 08, 2025 |
Bendeco02:With proper planning and strategy, yes it is possible otherwise I see Tinubu winning against. Just like they will all share the south east and south south votes, they will equally share the north votes. However, the south west with estimated votes of about 18million still remain unchallenged. If Tinubu can secure up to 70% of the south west votes and some numbers from eastern and northern parts… what do you think? |
| Re: Jonathan’s Return: A Game Of Shadows, Not A Race To Win by Bendeco02: 8:57am On Aug 08, 2025*. Modified: 9:56am On Aug 08, 2025 |
ibabz:Who will share North Vote? Oga core North goes for Atiku Only NC will be shared. Even with rigging, some regions are no go area. When PDP were in power, they always clear everwhere except NW/NE which buhari used to score 6M votes then. NE/NW/SE is a no go area for rigging. The INEC officials that will be send in these regions will use themselves to pay if they try to rig. Which some numbers will tinubu get in the East?. East has woken up in Nigeria politics unlike before that our people shows no interest. Worse come to worst 2027 election will end with crisis. No one will go to court again, take note of that. |
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