₦airaland Forum

After years of civil conflict, broken ceasefires, and failed transitions, the country is now on the verge of division, as two competing governments, each claiming legitimacy, dig in further across the country.

What began as a power struggle between two military chiefs has now evolved into a war for Sudan’s spirit and structural integrity.

As of August 2025, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), had established parallel administrations in opposing sections of the nation.

Their conflict has divided Sudan politically, geographically, and socially.

History of conflict
Sudan’s political turmoil is not new. Since achieving independence from British Egypt on January 1, 1956, the country has experienced several military coups, ethnic bloodshed, and long-lasting civil conflicts.

Two lengthy north-south battles, lasting 1955-1972 and 1983-2005, eventually led to South Sudan’s separation in 2011, which many anticipated would usher in peace.

Sudan’s status remained uncertain under Omar al-Bashir, who took power in a 1989 coup and reigned until 2019.

His rule was known for war crimes, notably in Darfur, where violence resulted in hundreds of thousands of fatalities and forced displacement, and he was eventually charged by the International Criminal Court.

In April 2019, a popular uprising deposed Bashir, paving the way for a civilian-military transitional government.

However, this fragile arrangement collapsed in October 2021, when General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan led a coup, dissolved the Sovereignty Council, and arrested civilian leaders, including Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

Although RSF commander Hemedti originally supported the coup, tensions quickly grew between him and Burhan, primarily over power allocation and the controversial topic of merging the RSF into the national armed forces, fueling widening divides.

By April 2023, their resentment had escalated into a full-blown war. The RSF and SAF battled in Khartoum, soon transforming the city into a battleground.

Heavy artillery, airstrikes, and urban combat decimated the city.

In July 2025, the RSF announced the creation of a “presidential council” to administer the territory it controls. It also began writing a new constitution, thereby establishing a breakaway government in all but name.

The RSF has set up administrative institutions, collected taxes, and built tribal alliances across Darfur and central Sudan.

In contrast, al-Burhan’s SAF-led administration maintains international legitimacy and diplomatic support from Egypt and certain Gulf states.

It operates out of Port Sudan, administering exile ministries and maintaining links with the United Nations and the African Union.

However, neither side has a clear military advantage, and both are now entrenched, resulting in a divide similar to Libya’s, with rival national narratives and state institutions.

A growing humanitarian disaster
Civilians have suffered greatly as a result of this split. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), approximately 10 million Sudanese have been displaced, making it one of the world’s worst displacement crises (UN OCHA, 2025).

Many people have fled to Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt, resulting in regional instability and overcrowded refugee camps. Inside Sudan, essential services have crumbled.

Famine is coming, particularly in Darfur, where both armed groups and ethnic militias have targeted people.

In July alone, humanitarian activities in the Upper Nile, Jonglei, Unity, Western Equatoria, and Central Equatoria were still significantly impacted by access restrictions brought on by the fighting. Attacks against aid workers, criminal activity, and the confiscation of aid assets were among the 60 access events that were documented.

Particularly in Juba Central Equatoria, where aid workers were the targets of three kidnappings, including requests for ransom and violent robberies, there was a notable increase in criminal activity directed at humanitarian personnel and institutions.

In Jonglei and Central Equatoria, armed groups assaulted UN contractors, injuring people and causing damage to infrastructure, notably the Kandila Bridge project, according to reliefweb.

What’s at stake with the potential Sudan split?
The most alarming effect is that Sudan may never reunite. If present trends continue, the nation may irreversibly fracture, following in the footsteps of failed states like Yemen, Syria, and Libya, which had numerous administrations, militias, and foreign patrons.

This would be Sudan’s second significant secession in recent history, dealing a catastrophic blow to ambitions to create a unified African state.

The ramifications would spread throughout the Horn of Africa and the Arab world, disrupting economic lines, migrant flows, and regional diplomacy.

Sudan’s civil society and democratic voices, which were so lively during the 2019 revolution, have been mostly muffled in the current crisis.

https://mazech.com/2025/08/from-one-country-to-four-the-already-split-sudan-could-be-on-the-edge-of-another-split/

"Many people have fled to Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt, resulting in regional instability and overcrowded refugee camps. Inside Sudan, essential services have crumbled."

"The most alarming effect is that Sudan may never reunite. If present trends continue, the nation may irreversibly fracture."

This is what will likely happen to Nigeria if we allow secession of any kind..
We are going to split into as much as 20 nations which will attract several civil wars and a lot of humanitarian crises.

I was just thinking this morning about the possibility of having a monarchial system like the king of malaysia in Western Nigeria in the event of a successful split.
The Yorubas are kind of like the only largest tribe with a bit of homogeneity yet, in such a scenario, there is likely going to be a civil war between the Oni of Ife and Alaafin of Oyo, in the past, there may be some arrangement that keeps the power in check but these current set of monarch will never agree to such arrangement

RealLordZeus:
This is what will likely happen to Nigeria if we allow secession of any kind..
We are going to split into as much as 20 nations which will attract several civil wars and a lot of humanitarian crises.

I was just thinking this morning about the possibility of having a monarchial system like the king of malaysia in Western Nigeria in the event of a successful split.
The Yorubas are kind of like the only tribe with a bit homogeneity yet, in such a scenario, there is likely going to be a civil war between the Oni of Ife and Alaafin of Oyo, in the past, there may be some arrangement that keeps the power in check but these current set of monarch will never agree to such arrangement

What does the King of Malaysia control in Malaysia?

How do they get access to arms and military equipments.

It is a know fact that they don’t have the industrial capacity.

Free Sudan , free Congo…free Africa!!!!

Softmirror:
What does the King of Malaysia control in Malaysia?

The King of Malaysia is like a ceremonial president..
I understand the hidden point behind your comment but i only cite it as an inspiration to my thought

How do they get access to arms and military equipments.

It is a know fact that they don’t have the industrial capacity.

Free Sudan , free Congo…free Africa!!!

AVECDEO:
How do they get access to arms and military equipments.

It is a know fact that they don’t have the industrial capacity.

Free Sudan , free Congo…free Africa!!!

Below is a good food for thought.

General Fattah al-Burhan caused this problem from the start, he shouldn't have carried out the coup

AVECDEO:
How do they get access to arms and military equipments.

It is a know fact that they don’t have the industrial capacity.

Free Sudan , free Congo…free Africa!!!

UAE is funding and equipping the RSF. I doubt Sudan will recover from this mess

Wahala no dey finish for Africa.
But then something strick me as I type
.....
Wars and rumors of war...
End time is at hand

RealLordZeus:
This is what will likely happen to Nigeria if we allow secession of any kind..
We are going to split into as much as 20 nations which will attract several civil wars and a lot of humanitarian crises.

I was just thinking this morning about the possibility of having a monarchial system like the king of malaysia in Western Nigeria in the event of a successful split.
The Yorubas are kind of like the only largest tribe with a bit of homogeneity yet, in such a scenario, there is likely going to be a civil war between the Oni of Ife and Alaafin of Oyo, in the past, there may be some arrangement that keeps the power in check but these current set of monarch will never agree to such arrangement

Makes no sense

This is Karna at work

They are paying for the blood of the black Sudanese criminally shed on their soil.

Sudan people just like fight...both south sudan.

Reminds me of the Balkans. Statutory warning to all those who want to divide the country, once you divide you divide again. If you could do it once why can't it be done again. With a weakened centre, this is the path it usually takes all over the world. Protracted period of blood shed and violence, dissolutions upon dissolutions, divisions upon divisions, endless internal strive, struggles, displacement and deaths, lots of death of innocent everyday people.

Hope we learn.

Thissystem:
After years of civil conflict, broken ceasefires, and failed transitions, the country is now on the verge of division, as two competing governments, each claiming legitimacy, dig in further across the country.

What began as a power struggle between two military chiefs has now evolved into a war for Sudan’s spirit and structural integrity.

As of August 2025, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), had established parallel administrations in opposing sections of the nation.

Their conflict has divided Sudan politically, geographically, and socially.

History of conflict
Sudan’s political turmoil is not new. Since achieving independence from British Egypt on January 1, 1956, the country has experienced several military coups, ethnic bloodshed, and long-lasting civil conflicts.

Two lengthy north-south battles, lasting 1955-1972 and 1983-2005, eventually led to South Sudan’s separation in 2011, which many anticipated would usher in peace.

Sudan’s status remained uncertain under Omar al-Bashir, who took power in a 1989 coup and reigned until 2019.

His rule was known for war crimes, notably in Darfur, where violence resulted in hundreds of thousands of fatalities and forced displacement, and he was eventually charged by the International Criminal Court.

In April 2019, a popular uprising deposed Bashir, paving the way for a civilian-military transitional government.

However, this fragile arrangement collapsed in October 2021, when General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan led a coup, dissolved the Sovereignty Council, and arrested civilian leaders, including Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

Although RSF commander Hemedti originally supported the coup, tensions quickly grew between him and Burhan, primarily over power allocation and the controversial topic of merging the RSF into the national armed forces, fueling widening divides.

By April 2023, their resentment had escalated into a full-blown war. The RSF and SAF battled in Khartoum, soon transforming the city into a battleground.

Heavy artillery, airstrikes, and urban combat decimated the city.

In July 2025, the RSF announced the creation of a “presidential council” to administer the territory it controls. It also began writing a new constitution, thereby establishing a breakaway government in all but name.

The RSF has set up administrative institutions, collected taxes, and built tribal alliances across Darfur and central Sudan.

In contrast, al-Burhan’s SAF-led administration maintains international legitimacy and diplomatic support from Egypt and certain Gulf states.

It operates out of Port Sudan, administering exile ministries and maintaining links with the United Nations and the African Union.

However, neither side has a clear military advantage, and both are now entrenched, resulting in a divide similar to Libya’s, with rival national narratives and state institutions.

A growing humanitarian disaster
Civilians have suffered greatly as a result of this split. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), approximately 10 million Sudanese have been displaced, making it one of the world’s worst displacement crises (UN OCHA, 2025).

Many people have fled to Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt, resulting in regional instability and overcrowded refugee camps. Inside Sudan, essential services have crumbled.

Famine is coming, particularly in Darfur, where both armed groups and ethnic militias have targeted people.

In July alone, humanitarian activities in the Upper Nile, Jonglei, Unity, Western Equatoria, and Central Equatoria were still significantly impacted by access restrictions brought on by the fighting. Attacks against aid workers, criminal activity, and the confiscation of aid assets were among the 60 access events that were documented.

Particularly in Juba Central Equatoria, where aid workers were the targets of three kidnappings, including requests for ransom and violent robberies, there was a notable increase in criminal activity directed at humanitarian personnel and institutions.

In Jonglei and Central Equatoria, armed groups assaulted UN contractors, injuring people and causing damage to infrastructure, notably the Kandila Bridge project, according to reliefweb.

What’s at stake with the potential Sudan split?
The most alarming effect is that Sudan may never reunite. If present trends continue, the nation may irreversibly fracture, following in the footsteps of failed states like Yemen, Syria, and Libya, which had numerous administrations, militias, and foreign patrons.

This would be Sudan’s second significant secession in recent history, dealing a catastrophic blow to ambitions to create a unified African state.

The ramifications would spread throughout the Horn of Africa and the Arab world, disrupting economic lines, migrant flows, and regional diplomacy.

Sudan’s civil society and democratic voices, which were so lively during the 2019 revolution, have been mostly muffled in the current crisis.

https://mazech.com/2025/08/from-one-country-to-four-the-already-split-sudan-could-be-on-the-edge-of-another-split/

My thoughts and prayers are with the people of Sudan.

The biggest problem facing Africa these days is the emergence of the Gulf States as the new imperial powers. Countries like Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and co,. These socalled oil rich countries ave traded heavily in African slaves for centuries, and are now sponsoring wars, bad governments and ethnic confrontations in Africa using their limitless oil wealth.

Don't be surprised they have their footprints all over Boko Haram and co. They were in Libya with NATO and are still supporting some warring groups in Libya as we speak, they are in Yemen and Ethiopia as we speak, they were in Somalia, they helped the current Egyptian president to gain power, the sponsored the islamists that took over in Syria .., infact they are almost in every conflict in Africa and the Arab world these days, and their only motivation has been to loot the resources of those unfortunate countries by imposing regimes amenable to their own interests.

Sometimes they even start fighting amongst themselves over some of these wars as was the case in Yemen where they entered with a clear support for certain groups but ended up supporting different groups fighting against each other, thereby prolonging the bloodbath in Yemen. If not checked, the pugnacious gulf states who seem not to know what to do with their limitless dollars, might end up as the "New Imperialists" that will wreck Africa..

And their children are living in foreign land

owobokiri:
The biggest problem facing Africa these days is the emergence of the Gulf States as the new imperial powers. Countries like Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and co,. These socalled oil rich countries ave traded heavily in African slaves for centuries, and are now sponsoring wars, bad governments and ethnic confrontations in Africa using their limitless oil wealth.

Don't be surprised they have their footprints all over Boko Haram and co. They were in Libya with NATO and are still supporting some warring groups in Libya as we speak, they are in Yemen and Ethiopia as we speak, they were in Somalia, they helped the current Egyptian president to gain power, the sponsored the islamists that took over in Syria .., infact they are almost in every conflict in Africa and the Arab world these days, and their only motivation has been to loot the resources of those unfortunate countries by imposing regimes amenable to their own interests.

Sometimes they even start fighting amongst themselves over some of these wars as was the case in Yemen where they entered with a clear support for certain groups but ended up supporting different groups fighting against each other, thereby prolonging the bloodbath in Yemen. If not checked, the pugnacious gulf states who seem not to know what to do with their limitless dollars, might end up as the "New Imperialists" that will wreck Africa..

You've said it all. In Sudan, the UAE clearly supports the Rsf by arming and funding it. The UAE has the intention of building a port in Sudans strategic red sea Port Sudan which the rival Saf clearly objects to. On the other hand, we have Egypt which has sided with the internationally recognized Saf because it wants Sudans continued support over its dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile. Egypt is in unison with other gulf states. Ironically, Ethiopia also supports the Saf.

You can't force unity or use threat of war to force unity. Two people can only walk unless they agree!

RealLordZeus:
This is what will likely happen to Nigeria if we allow secession of any kind..
We are going to split into as much as 20 nations which will attract several civil wars and a lot of humanitarian crises.

I was just thinking this morning about the possibility of having a monarchial system like the king of malaysia in Western Nigeria in the event of a successful split.
The Yorubas are kind of like the only largest tribe with a bit of homogeneity yet, in such a scenario, there is likely going to be a civil war between the Oni of Ife and Alaafin of Oyo, in the past, there may be some arrangement that keeps the power in check but these current set of monarch will never agree to such arrangement

If a fair, just and equitable system is not enthroned, break up is inevitable

Manfromlasvegas:
Reminds me of the Balkans. Statutory warning to all those who want to divide the country, once you divide you divide again. If you could do it once why can't it be done again. With a weakened centre, this is the path it usually takes all over the world. Protracted period of blood shed and violence, dissolutions upon dissolutions, divisions upon divisions, endless internal strive, struggles, displacement and deaths, lots of death of innocent everyday people.

Hope we learn.

Svoboda:
You've said it all. In Sudan, the UAE clearly supports the Rsf by arming and funding it. The UAE has the intention of building a port in Sudans strategic red sea Port Sudan which the rival Saf clearly objects to. On the other hand, we have Egypt which has sided with the internationally recognized Saf because it wants Sudans continued support over its dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile. Egypt is in unison with other gulf states. Ironically, Ethiopia also supports the Saf.

Egypt is warry of openly endorsing SAF because of the influence of the Gulf States, especially the UAE 🇦🇪, who are pouring in billions of dollars into the rapid urbanisation of Egyptian cities under General Sisi. That's the main reason holding the Egyptian government back from throwing their full support behind the government in Khartoum.

Egypt has the military wherewithal to skew the turn of events in favour of any group they seriously support in Sudan. And they are very close to act if they choose to. They also have the military capable enough to make that happen.. But going all out in support of SAF will surely lead to an open clash of interests between the Egyptias and the Emirateis. Sisi does not need that now.., so the taps won't run dry.

Isn't this exactly where Nigeria is headed, please can someone point out any dissimilarities between Nigeria and Sudan

owobokiri:
Egypt is warry of openly endorsing SAF because of the influence of the Gulf States, especially the UAE 🇦🇪, who are pouring in billions of dollars into the rapid urbanisation of Egyptian cities under General Sisi. That's the main reason holding the Egyptian government back from throwing their full support behind the government in Khartoum.

Egypt has the military wherewithal to skew the turn of events in favour of any group they seriously support in Sudan. And they are very close to act if they choose to. They also have the military capable enough to make that happen.. But going all out in support of SAF will surely lead to an open clash of interests between the Egyptias and the Emirateis. Sisi does not need that now.., so the taps won't run dry.

Very true. The major players in the middle east clearly understand the game of intersection of interests. This is the same game playing out in Eritrea and Somaliland over control of their ports.

RealLordZeus:
This is what will likely happen to Nigeria if we allow secession of any kind..
We are going to split into as much as 20 nations which will attract several civil wars and a lot of humanitarian crises.

I was just thinking this morning about the possibility of having a monarchial system like the king of malaysia in Western Nigeria in the event of a successful split.
The Yorubas are kind of like the only largest tribe with a bit of homogeneity yet, in such a scenario, there is likely going to be a civil war between the Oni of Ife and Alaafin of Oyo, in the past, there may be some arrangement that keeps the power in check but these current set of monarch will never agree to such arrangement

What is the kiriji wars then? Ndigbo are far more homogeneous