₦airaland Forum

Bandits or Boko Haram Attacking the South-West Could Be Tinubu’s Undoing

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s greatest political strength lies in the South-West — his home region and power base. It was the foundation of his rise to national leadership and remains the strongest pillar of his support. But that support is not unconditional. If bandits or Boko Haram insurgents extend their attacks into the South-West, it could mark the beginning of Tinubu’s political decline.

For years, insecurity has ravaged the North. Nigerians in the South-West have largely watched from a distance, believing their region to be relatively safe. Any major breakdown of security there would be viewed as a personal failure of Tinubu’s leadership. When danger comes close to home, loyalty fades quickly.

The South-West is politically sophisticated and economically vital. Its people expect competent governance and swift action in times of crisis. If kidnappings, killings, or terrorist attacks spread into Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, or Lagos, frustration will rise sharply. Opposition politicians would seize on such events to argue that Tinubu cannot secure even his own backyard.

The result could be a loss of trust among key governors, traditional rulers, and grassroots supporters — the same network that delivered victory in 2023. Once security collapses, rebuilding political confidence becomes far harder than deploying troops.

To avoid this, Tinubu must act decisively. Security agencies must tighten intelligence sharing, strengthen Amotekun operations, and protect highways and rural communities. The government must also address poverty and unemployment, which often feed insecurity.

If the South-West ever begins to feel the same insecurity that has plagued the North, Tinubu’s image as a strong, capable leader will suffer. And once his home base turns against him, his national standing may not survive it

This Must make front page ... Banditry should not enter south west

Tinubu’s lifeline is in the NW and NE not SW. They contributed over 70% of his votes in 2023. Without Buhari he would’ve come 4th in the election because those votes would’ve gone to Kwankwaso and Atiku.

chiefolododo:
Bandits or Boko Haram Attacking the South-West Could Be Tinubu’s Undoing

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s greatest political strength lies in the South-West — his home region and power base. It was the foundation of his rise to national leadership and remains the strongest pillar of his support. But that support is not unconditional. If bandits or Boko Haram insurgents extend their attacks into the South-West, it could mark the beginning of Tinubu’s political decline.

For years, insecurity has ravaged the North. Nigerians in the South-West have largely watched from a distance, believing their region to be relatively safe. Any major breakdown of security there would be viewed as a personal failure of Tinubu’s leadership. When danger comes close to home, loyalty fades quickly.

The South-West is politically sophisticated and economically vital. Its people expect competent governance and swift action in times of crisis. If kidnappings, killings, or terrorist attacks spread into Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, or Lagos, frustration will rise sharply. Opposition politicians would seize on such events to argue that Tinubu cannot secure even his own backyard.

The result could be a loss of trust among key governors, traditional rulers, and grassroots supporters — the same network that delivered victory in 2023. Once security collapses, rebuilding political confidence becomes far harder than deploying troops.

To avoid this, Tinubu must act decisively. Security agencies must tighten intelligence sharing, strengthen Amotekun operations, and protect highways and rural communities. The government must also address poverty and unemployment, which often feed insecurity.

If the South-West ever begins to feel the same insecurity that has plagued the North, Tinubu’s image as a strong, capable leader will suffer. And once his home base turns against him, his national standing may not survive it

Hmm you guys are just been too naive...wait oo so all the reports that bandits have taken over almost all the forest in the South west is not enough for Tinubu to realize that Yoruba land is under siege? Three Obas killed in on day is not enough, Olu Falea kidnapped in his farm, an entire Local government was chased to Benin Republic as refugees is not enough abi, ok you are waiting till it's gets to the scale of Venue and plateau before you know that Yoruba land is technically surrounded abi..For your information, the Fulani third Reich is matching unchallenged from Kwara to Osun, very soon Onni will relocate to Lagos.

kaltonga:
Hmm you guys are just been too naive...wait oo so all the reports that bandits have taken over almost all the forest in the South west is not enough for Tinubu to realize that Yoruba land is under siege? Three Obas killed in on day is not enough, Olu Falea kidnapped in his farm, an entire Local government was chased to Benin Republic as refugees is not enough abi, ok you are waiting till it's gets to the scale of Venue and plateau before you know that Yoruba land is technically surrounded abi..For your information, the Fulani third Reich is matching unchallenged from Kwara to Osun, very soon Onni will relocate to Lagos.

I pray this is not true, Nigeria threading the path of Afghanistan .THE UNITED NATION NEEDS TO DECLARE NIGERIA AS ONE OF THE COUNTRIES OF GREAT CONCERN

givedemwotowoto:
Tinubu’s lifeline is in the NW and NE not SW. They contributed over 70% of his votes in 2023. Without Buhari he would’ve come 4th in the election because those votes would’ve gone to Kwankwaso and Atiku.

you should stop deceiving yourself. if tinubu wins 100% north East and North West he can never be president of Nigeria if he doesn't get two third of votes in all the other geo political zones. Any aspirant can loose in northwest and North East and still be president of Nigeria if he wins in the other goe political zones and gets to third of north East and North West.

givedemwotowoto:
Tinubu’s lifeline is in the NW and NE not SW. They contributed over 70% of his votes in 2023. Without Buhari he would’ve come 4th in the election because those votes would’ve gone to Kwankwaso and Atiku.

Bros the man had no such votes at all. Na only Eyeneck and sister judict gave him the seat. He may have come distant 4th then.

Elusive001:
Bros the man had no such votes at all. Na only Eyeneck and sister judict gave him the seat. He may have come distant 4th then.

I know but going by official records. We know he only got a little over 100k in Lagos

kaltonga:
Hmm you guys are just been too naive...wait oo so all the reports that bandits have taken over almost all the forest in the South west is not enough for Tinubu to realize that Yoruba land is under siege? Three Obas killed in on day is not enough, Olu Falea kidnapped in his farm, an entire Local government was chased to Benin Republic as refugees is not enough abi, ok you are waiting till it's gets to the scale of Venue and plateau before you know that Yoruba land is technically surrounded abi..For your information, the Fulani third Reich is matching unchallenged from Kwara to Osun, very soon Onni will relocate to Lagos.

south west is truly under siege and to think this thread was a year ago

OP, aren't you reading what his supporters are saying? Even if terrorists keep killing them, they'll still vote for Tinubu. So I don't believe the president has much to worry about.

chiefolododo:
This Must make front page ... Banditry should not enter south west

A very useless topic.

Dogalmighty17:
OP, aren't you reading what his supporters are saying? Even if terrorists keep killing them, they'll still vote for Tinubu. So I don't believe the president has much to worry about.

After all, Peter Obi says he supports ESN/IPOB even after they kpaid several thousands of Igbos.

Goodvibes007:
A very useless topic.

is it still a useless topic?

chiefolododo:
Bandits or Boko Haram Attacking the South-West Could Be Tinubu’s Undoing

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s greatest political strength lies in the South-West — his home region and power base. It was the foundation of his rise to national leadership and remains the strongest pillar of his support. But that support is not unconditional. If bandits or Boko Haram insurgents extend their attacks into the South-West, it could mark the beginning of Tinubu’s political decline.

For years, insecurity has ravaged the North. Nigerians in the South-West have largely watched from a distance, believing their region to be relatively safe. Any major breakdown of security there would be viewed as a personal failure of Tinubu’s leadership. When danger comes close to home, loyalty fades quickly.

The South-West is politically sophisticated and economically vital. Its people expect competent governance and swift action in times of crisis. If kidnappings, killings, or terrorist attacks spread into Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, or Lagos, frustration will rise sharply. Opposition politicians would seize on such events to argue that Tinubu cannot secure even his own backyard.

The result could be a loss of trust among key governors, traditional rulers, and grassroots supporters — the same network that delivered victory in 2023. Once security collapses, rebuilding political confidence becomes far harder than deploying troops.

To avoid this, Tinubu must act decisively. Security agencies must tighten intelligence sharing, strengthen Amotekun operations, and protect highways and rural communities. The government must also address poverty and unemployment, which often feed insecurity.

If the South-West ever begins to feel the same insecurity that has plagued the North, Tinubu’s image as a strong, capable leader will suffer. And once his home base turns against him, his national standing may not survive it

Prophetic.

Cheif Olododo how are Akpan, Oduma, Sangalo and Sister Bridget?

DeepSight:
Prophetic.

Cheif Olododo how are Akpan, Oduma, Sangalo and Sister Bridget?

I don't under your question

chiefolododo:
I don't under your question

HA!

https://www.instagram.com/p/DAyAeZ4ujl8/


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23UO-MrVPpE