₦airaland Forum

Shimbo96:
this boring poem again. SMH

DeLaRue:
As the naira rises in value, the need for borrowing will reduce.

Economics is not a precise science where 1 + 1 always equal 2.

kolente:
The headline of this thread is highly sensational and quite misleading .

The US Dollar is deliberately being devalued by President Donald Trump against major international currencies to encourage the exports of American manufactured goods thus creating jobs for Americans as such the appreciation of the Naira.

Secondly, As we approach the "Detty December" season, Nigerians living in diaspora and also Tourist are sending hard currency into the country for real estate and hospitality purpose for the festivities as such the surge in dollar inflow and naira appreciation.

slyzy:
So now that the naira is floated (no artificial backup of naira) and subsidy is also removed, where is the proceeds going to that Tinubu keeps borrowing on monthly basis? The money Tinubu has borrowed within two years is more than what Buhari borrowed for eight years and it goes on. What's happening?

DeLaRue:
You are behind the curve.

Your narrative is not backed by data.

The Nigerian economy is improving and is not as wedded to the US economy and the American government's dollar policy as it used to.

The naira even barely reacts to international crude oil price these days - at least not as much as it used to do.

Detty December is not as consequential for thee naira as you make it.

loffyloffy:
Govt always borrow against expected revenue plus deficit to run their budget.

Tinubu have the biggest budget ever, so naturally he will also borrow the most.

Some of this loans are short term loans that are being paid back as the revenue is comming in.

But even at that the loan in total will continue to rise as the revenue is rising.

NaijaphiliaBlog:
SOURCE
https://x.com/NaijaphiliaBlog/status/1984395130644705282

DeLaRue:
That's unrealistic, nor is it necessarily a good thing. Such superfast appreciation may create new pockets of instability in the economy.

Naira reaching N1000 by December will be a nightmare for the CBN and the Ministry of Finance. Both will prefer a slow and steady rise.

Managing an economy is a delicate game a chess. For every positive development in one part of the economy (e.g currency) there is a potential negative effect elsewhere.

So while naira reaching N1000 by December looks good on paper, it will reverse most of the gains we have made in the last 18 months when we started exporting more and importing less. It will also reverse the ongoing efforts to produce more of what we need here in Nigeria.

If Nigeria hits N1000 by December, imported goods will become significantly cheaper next year, and the country will go back to importing more of everything. Yes, the man on the street will be happier, but long term the economy will become worse and more import-dependent.

The biggest short, medium, and long term beneficiary will be China where we import most things from. Over time, our own local industries will die a slow death. We will enjoy cheaper goods prices but our future children will have no jobs as our industries are hollowed out over time. We will basically become an economic colony of China

Yes, it is a good thing for naira to appreciate, but it is better for that appreciation to happen at a slow and steady pace to give the Ministry of Finance and the CBN time to make necessary policy changes.

I suspect the CBN would probably prefer naira not to reach N1000 to a dollar until around mid to late 2026, though I don't think they'll be able to control the timing of naira appreciation 100%. But, I can bet you that CBN will be buying dollars furiously if its data shows an impending destabilising naira gains. Buying dollars effectively means supporting the dollars against the naira

Some may be surprised by the idea of the CBN supporting the dollar against the naira, but that is part of the job of the CBN. Support the naira if there is a need to, and buy (support) the dollar if there is a need to.
I'm impressed by your knowledge and analytical skills.
I'll hold in to my foreign currency.
Thanks so much.

Shawarmagirl:
My 2hrs job salary is some people monthly salary in Nigeria banks. Naira is weak and will continue to depreciate.Nothing anybody fit tell me.

DeLaRue:
That's unrealistic, nor is it necessarily a good thing. Such superfast appreciation may create new pockets of instability in the economy.

Naira reaching N1000 by December will be a nightmare for the CBN and the Ministry of Finance. Both will prefer a slow and steady rise.

Managing an economy is a delicate game a chess. For every positive development in one part of the economy (e.g currency) there is a potential negative effect elsewhere.

So while naira reaching N1000 by December looks good on paper, it will reverse most of the gains we have made in the last 18 months when we started exporting more and importing less. It will also reverse the ongoing efforts to produce more of what we need here in Nigeria.

If Nigeria hits N1000 by December, imported goods will become significantly cheaper next year, and the country will go back to importing more of everything. Yes, the man on the street will be happier, but long term the economy will become worse and more import-dependent.

The biggest short, medium, and long term beneficiary will be China where we import most things from. Over time, our own local industries will die a slow death. We will enjoy cheaper goods prices but our future children will have no jobs as our industries are hollowed out over time. We will basically become an economic colony of China

Yes, it is a good thing for naira to appreciate, but it is better for that appreciation to happen at a slow and steady pace to give the Ministry of Finance and the CBN time to make necessary policy changes.

I suspect the CBN would probably prefer naira not to reach N1000 to a dollar until around mid to late 2026, though I don't think they'll be able to control the timing of naira appreciation 100%. But, I can bet you that CBN will be buying dollars furiously if its data shows an impending destabilising naira gains. Buying dollars effectively means supporting the dollars against the naira

Some may be surprised by the idea of the CBN supporting the dollar against the naira, but that is part of the job of the CBN. Support the naira if there is a need to, and buy (support) the dollar if there is a need to.

grandstar:
What you're asking is not possible again in economics.

It is like asking a woman to go back to what she looked like before she had babies.

The fundamentals have changed. You should have been complaining when Buhari was destroying the economy from 2015-2023.

That was when the destruction of the economy was going on.

Shawarmagirl:
My 2hrs job salary is some people monthly salary in Nigeria banks. Naira is weak and will continue to depreciate.Nothing anybody fit tell me.

lordprogress:
Make I nor nod you o, how much was naira to dollar before he entered power.

DeLaRue:
That's unrealistic, nor is it necessarily a good thing. Such superfast appreciation may create new pockets of instability in the economy.

Naira reaching N1000 by December will be a nightmare for the CBN and the Ministry of Finance. Both will prefer a slow and steady rise.

Managing an economy is a delicate game a chess. For every positive development in one part of the economy (e.g currency) there is a potential negative effect elsewhere.

So while naira reaching N1000 by December looks good on paper, it will reverse most of the gains we have made in the last 18 months when we started exporting more and importing less. It will also reverse the ongoing efforts to produce more of what we need here in Nigeria.

If Nigeria hits N1000 by December, imported goods will become significantly cheaper next year, and the country will go back to importing more of everything. Yes, the man on the street will be happier, but long term the economy will become worse and more import-dependent.

The biggest short, medium, and long term beneficiary will be China where we import most things from. Over time, our own local industries will die a slow death. We will enjoy cheaper goods prices but our future children will have no jobs as our industries are hollowed out over time. We will basically become an economic colony of China

Yes, it is a good thing for naira to appreciate, but it is better for that appreciation to happen at a slow and steady pace to give the Ministry of Finance and the CBN time to make necessary policy changes.

I suspect the CBN would probably prefer naira not to reach N1000 to a dollar until around mid to late 2026, though I don't think they'll be able to control the timing of naira appreciation 100%. But, I can bet you that CBN will be buying dollars furiously if its data shows an impending destabilising naira gains. Buying dollars effectively means supporting the dollars against the naira

Some may be surprised by the idea of the CBN supporting the dollar against the naira, but that is part of the job of the CBN. Support the naira if there is a need to, and buy (support) the dollar if there is a need to.

DeLaRue:
As the naira rises in value, the need for borrowing will reduce.

Economics is not a precise science where 1 + 1 always equal 2.

In a funny way, borrowing has indirectly actually contributed to the rise in the naira, though much less so than the reduction in imports.

1. Nigeria is able to borrow as much as it is doing because the international financial institutions rate Mr Tinubu's economic reforms. The World Bank is not a fool. They don't willingly lend to countries that will not be able to pay back. Under the last government, these institutions and other governments were reluctant to lend to Nigeria because they did not have confidence in our economy. Now they do, and contrary to the noise from opposition and part of the media, the current government has not borrowed too much, relative to the size of our economy.

2. By borrowing, at a cheap rate, this government has been able to reduce the depletion of the foreign reserves. This, in turn has given local and international investors some confidence in the naira. If the foreign reserve was at $33 billion, instead of the current level of $43 billion, naira would be hovering around N1800 or worse and be very unstable. Would you have preferred that to the government borrowing?

3. If a country needs to rapidly develop its infrastructure,like Nigeria desperately needs to, and doesn't have the money, then borrowing for that purpose is not a bad thing. I don't know which part of the country you are based in, but in my part of the country there are several gigantic road construction going on. I hope it is the same where you are.

Yes, you're right to be concerned about politicians piling on debt for future generations, however, it does appear on balance,that the loans are for good purposes.

Loans are not always a bad thing.

Mr Dangote's companies probably take more loans than any other companies in Nigeria, but they are also the most prosperous.

With politicians, you can never be sure about their motives, but I have a good feeling about Mr Tinubu and I believe he is the most competent leader Nigeria has had in 65 years of independence. Not perfect, but very good, especially with the economy.

hassinho707:
Very good. We are expecting the naira to appreciate more. It should get to 1,000 naira before the end of December

DeLaRue:
That's unrealistic, nor is it necessarily a good thing. Such superfast appreciation may create new pockets of instability in the economy.

Naira reaching N1000 by December will be a nightmare for the CBN and the Ministry of Finance. Both will prefer a slow and steady rise.

Managing an economy is a delicate game a chess. For every positive development in one part of the economy (e.g currency) there is a potential negative effect elsewhere.

So while naira reaching N1000 by December looks good on paper, it will reverse most of the gains we have made in the last 18 months when we started exporting more and importing less. It will also reverse the ongoing efforts to produce more of what we need here in Nigeria.

If Nigeria hits N1000 by December, imported goods will become significantly cheaper next year, and the country will go back to importing more of everything. Yes, the man on the street will be happier, but long term the economy will become worse and more import-dependent.

The biggest short, medium, and long term beneficiary will be China where we import most things from. Over time, our own local industries will die a slow death. We will enjoy cheaper goods prices but our future children will have no jobs as our industries are hollowed out over time. We will basically become an economic colony of China

Yes, it is a good thing for naira to appreciate, but it is better for that appreciation to happen at a slow and steady pace to give the Ministry of Finance and the CBN time to make necessary policy changes.

I suspect the CBN would probably prefer naira not to reach N1000 to a dollar until around mid to late 2026, though I don't think they'll be able to control the timing of naira appreciation 100%. But, I can bet you that CBN will be buying dollars furiously if its data shows an impending destabilising naira gains. Buying dollars effectively means supporting the dollars against the naira

Some may be surprised by the idea of the CBN supporting the dollar against the naira, but that is part of the job of the CBN. Support the naira if there is a need to, and buy (support) the dollar if there is a need to.

lordprogress:
Make I nor nod you o, how much was naira to dollar before he entered power.

Razzness:
Tinubu is the best president we've had since Yaradua.

hassinho707:
Very good. We are expecting the naira to appreciate more. It should get to 1,000 naira before the end of December

Razzness:
Tinubu is the best president we've had since Yaradua.

DeLaRue:
As the naira rises in value, the need for borrowing will reduce.

Economics is not a precise science where 1 + 1 always equal 2.

In a funny way, borrowing has indirectly actually contributed to the rise in the naira, though much less so than the reduction in imports.

1. Nigeria is able to borrow as much as it is doing because the international financial institutions rate Mr Tinubu's economic reforms. The World Bank is not a fool. They don't willingly lend to countries that will not be able to pay back. Under the last government, these institutions and other governments were reluctant to lend to Nigeria because they did not have confidence in our economy. Now they do, and contrary to the noise from opposition and part of the media, the current government has not borrowed too much, relative to the size of our economy.

2. By borrowing, at a cheap rate, this government has been able to reduce the depletion of the foreign reserves. This, in turn has given local and international investors some confidence in the naira. If the foreign reserve was at $33 billion, instead of the current level of $43 billion, naira would be hovering around N1800 or worse and be very unstable. Would you have preferred that to the government borrowing?

3. If a country needs to rapidly develop its infrastructure,like Nigeria desperately needs to, and doesn't have the money, then borrowing for that purpose is not a bad thing. I don't know which part of the country you are based in, but in my part of the country there are several gigantic road construction going on. I hope it is the same where you are.

Yes, you're right to be concerned about politicians piling on debt for future generations, however, it does appear on balance,that the loans are for good purposes.

Loans are not always a bad thing.

Mr Dangote's companies probably take more loans than any other companies in Nigeria, but they are also the most prosperous.

With politicians, you can never be sure about their motives, but I have a good feeling about Mr Tinubu and I believe he is the most competent leader Nigeria has had in 65 years of independence. Not perfect, but very good, especially with the economy.

hassinho707:
Very good. We are expecting the naira to appreciate more. It should get to 1,000 naira before the end of December