₦airaland Forum

Nigeria’s total public debt may jump by N40.61tn to about N193tn if all loan requests President Bola Tinubu sent to the National Assembly in 2025 are approved and fully disbursed, an analysis by The PUNCH has shown.

The requests, which equal about 26.6 per cent of the country’s existing debt stock as of June 2025, come amid growing fiscal pressures and rising foreign-currency exposure.

Figures from the Debt Management Office showed that as of June 30, 2025, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N152.4tn, made up of N71.85tn external and N80.55tn domestic debt. The DMO said it used an official exchange rate of N1,529.21 per dollar for the June debt report.

However, The PUNCH adopted the Central Bank of Nigeria’s official exchange rates as of November 10, 2025, which were N1,437.29 to the dollar, N1,662.66 to the euro, and N9.33 to the yen for the loan requests.

Based on the analysis by The PUNCH and the official debt report from the DMO, Tinubu’s 2025 loan pipeline could lift the debt stock to about N193.01tn. The increase represents a 26.6 per cent rise in the country’s total debt portfolio, equivalent to about $134.3bn at the prevailing official rate.

The development would push Nigeria’s external debt component above 57 per cent of total debt, increasing foreign-currency exposure. The PUNCH observed that at least three major requests have been made by the Nigerian President this year.

In May, Tinubu sought the National Assembly’s approval for a $21.5bn external loan package, €2.19bn, and ¥15bn, alongside a N758bn domestic bond to fund the 2025–2026 borrowing plan, infrastructure projects, and accrued pension liabilities.

“In light of the significant infrastructure deficit in the country and the paucity of financial resources needed to address this gap amid declining domestic demand, it has become essential to pursue prudent economic borrowing to close the financial shortfall,” the President said in one of his three letters to the National Assembly.

The Senate approved the request in July. The approval followed the presentation of a report by the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Local and Foreign Debt, Senator Aliyu Wamako.

The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations, Senator Olamilekan Adeola, said most of the loan requests had already been factored into the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and the 2025 budget.

“The borrowing is already embedded in the 2025 Appropriation Act. With this approval, we now have all revenue sources, including loans, in place to fully fund the budget,” Adeola explained.

The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance, Senator Sani Musa (APC, Niger East), also defended the borrowing, saying it aligns with global economic practices. “There’s no economy that grows without borrowing. What we are doing is in line with global best practices,” he said.

Senator Adetokunbo Abiru, who chairs the Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions, assured the chamber that the loans are concessional and comply with the Fiscal Responsibility Act and the Debt Management Act. “These loans are long-term, some with tenors ranging from 20 to 35 years, and they are strictly tied to capital and human development projects,” he said.

However, Senator Abdul Ningi (Bauchi Central) voiced concerns over transparency and equitable distribution, warning that Nigerians deserve to know the specifics of the loans and their intended impact.

In October, the President transmitted another letter to the legislature seeking $2.3bn in external loans and a $500m debut sovereign sukuk to part-finance the 2025 budget deficit and refinance maturing Eurobonds due later in the year. The National Assembly gave its nod on October 29, bringing the total external funding from both requests to about $24.8bn.

In support of the second loan request, Senator Sani Musa said the borrowing request was critical for the smooth implementation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill. Musa said, “We must give approval to this request so that the 2025 appropriation will be given the necessary funding.”

Also speaking, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Interior, Senator Adams Oshiomhole (APC, Edo North), defended the borrowing plan, arguing that loans, when properly structured and channelled toward productive sectors, could stimulate economic growth and create jobs.

A third request, submitted in early November, sought approval for a N1.15tn domestic borrowing programme to bridge the unfunded portion of the N59.9tn 2025 budget and settle outstanding payments to local contractors.

According to the Nigerian President, the fresh borrowing would “bridge the funding gap and ensure the full implementation of government programmes and projects” under the 2025 fiscal plan. That proposal is still being considered by the relevant committees of the National Assembly.

While critics warn that the trend could push the economy toward unsustainable debt levels, government officials and lawmakers argue that strategic borrowing remains essential to sustaining growth, financing infrastructure, and maintaining investor confidence.

If all the borrowing requests are implemented, Nigeria’s total debt would rise from N152.40tn in mid-2025 to about N193.01tn. Of this, external obligations would increase by about N39.6tn to N111.45tn, while domestic debt would rise by about N1tn to N81.56tn.

Further analysis by The PUNCH showed that Nigeria’s total public debt increased by about N65.02tn within two years of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, driven mainly by exchange rate depreciation and persistent deficit financing, according to data from the Debt Management Office.

Figures from the DMO’s debt reports for June 2023 and June 2025 show that the total public debt rose from N87.38tn in June 2023 to N152.40tn in June 2025, marking a 74.4 per cent increase. While fresh borrowing played a role, most of the surge resulted from the sharp weakening of the naira, which nearly doubled the naira value of existing foreign loans.

The PUNCH observed that roughly two-thirds of the jump in the total debt figure was due to the naira’s sharp depreciation after the unification of exchange rates under Tinubu’s administration.

In June 2023, Nigeria’s total external debt stood at $43.16bn, valued at N33.25tn, based on the then-official exchange rate of N770.38 to a dollar. The total domestic debt was N54.13tn, bringing the combined public debt to N87.38tn.

Two years later, the picture changed sharply. By June 2025, total external debt had risen to $46.98bn, but its naira equivalent had more than doubled to N71.85tn due to the naira’s devaluation.

Between June 2023 and June 2025, the naira weakened from N770/$1 to N1,529/$1, nearly doubling the local-currency value of existing external loans, according to the exchange rates adopted by the DMO in its reports.

Domestic debt also grew to N80.55tn, pushing the overall public debt to N152.40tn. In essence, while the external debt increased by only $3.82bn in absolute terms, its naira value jumped by N38.6tn.

Analysts note that the surge in the local-currency value of external debt mirrors the impact of the exchange rate reforms introduced under Tinubu, which unified the multiple exchange windows in mid-2023.

Domestic debt also rose by N26.42tn within the same period, reflecting sustained local borrowing through Federal Government bonds, Treasury bills, and the securitisation of the Central Bank’s Ways and Means overdraft.

In May 2023, the National Assembly approved the conversion of N22.7tn in CBN overdrafts into long-term debt instruments, a move that immediately swelled the domestic debt profile. The rising debt burden comes as Tinubu’s administration continues to pursue fresh loans to repay maturing loans and finance the fiscal deficit.

Speaking at the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja, the Director-General of the Debt Management Office, Patience Oniha, said Nigeria’s public debt remains sustainable, stressing that the country’s debt-to-Gross Domestic Product ratio is currently about 40 per cent, well below the 70 per cent international benchmark for emerging economies.

Oniha explained that, despite growing public concern about Nigeria’s debt profile, the country’s borrowing level is not excessive by global standards.

However, economists have repeatedly warned that while the new loans may help fund infrastructure and budget shortfalls, Nigeria’s debt service burden, already one of the highest relative to revenue in Africa, could worsen without stronger revenue growth and stricter control of public spending.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, earlier expressed concern over the Federal Government’s growing debt commitments, particularly the heavy tilt towards external borrowing.

Yusuf warned that Nigeria’s rising debt service burden is already outpacing capital expenditure and could begin to crowd out essential government functions if not properly managed. “Debt service is already far more than the appropriation for capital spending,” he said, describing the trend as worrying.

He emphasised the need for the government to focus more on revenue growth and fiscal consolidation rather than piling on new debts. “We need to tread very cautiously with respect to debt commitments,” he added.

Yusuf noted that while current economic reforms and improved oil sector performance may eventually enhance revenue and reduce borrowing needs, any new loans must be critically scrutinised for cost and purpose.

The Deputy Country Director at BudgIT, who was formerly its Group Head of Research and Policy Advisory, Vahyala Kwaga, cautioned against the Federal Government’s plan to take on new loans, stressing the risk of breaching Nigeria’s debt threshold.

Kwaga also raised concerns over poor transparency, noting, “The federal government needs to demonstrate far more transparency and accountability in how it has spent previous debt,” he added.

Earlier, the Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre, Auwal Rafsanjani, criticised the Federal Government’s persistent reliance on borrowing without clear accountability or tangible results.

Rafsanjani expressed concern that previous loans, including the $3.4bn IMF facility secured during the COVID-19 pandemic, have either been misused or remain unaccounted for. “The government continues to borrow, and it cannot prove to Nigerians what they are doing with the borrowing,” he said.

He also accused the National Assembly of being complicit in the borrowing spree, alleging that lawmakers benefit from the process through inflated constituency projects. “They will do everything possible to approve the loan from the president because they are beneficiaries of this,” he added.

Rafsanjani warned that rather than addressing national development, there are growing fears the funds could be redirected toward political interests ahead of the 2027 elections.

Sharing a similar sentiment, the National Coordinator of the Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria, Emmanuel Onwubiko, condemned President Tinubu’s loan request, describing it as reckless and harmful to the country’s future. “There is no valid reason why the president wants to drag the country into these debts,” he said.

Onwubiko also criticised the National Assembly for lacking independence, saying, “Nigerians should hold President Tinubu and the rubber-stamped National Assembly responsible for this vicious circle of dragging the country into a bottomless pit of foreign loans.”

iwaeda:
Our debt profile is looking very good, we will pay back by taxing people to death start from January 2026. We will use your money to buy luxury and refuse to fix your roads and infrastructure.

atobs4real:
Please, cancel the loan. It's killing. The once he had received, what is the impact on the masses?
Nothing to show for it except shege pro suffering.
Nigerians which way?
All way na way sha.
We move on.
We will start paying back by 2026 once our taxation is effective

BlackViper:
https://punchng.com/tinubus-loan-requests-may-raise-nigerias-debt-to-n193tn/

Adebayofficial:
Borrowing to siphon half of the funds?
When the government is done with us, Venezuela might be like a child's play when compared to whatever is left of our economy.

iwaeda:
Our debt profile is looking very good, we will pay back by taxing people to death start from January 2026. We will use your money to buy luxury and refuse to fix your roads and infrastructure.