₦airaland Forum

Internal party sources are sounding alarms over what they describe as Governor Dapo Abiodun's deliberate challenge to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's authority within the All Progressives Congress, a move that echoes the bitter power struggles that defined the 2023 presidential primaries.

The latest friction centres on alleged directive breaches by the Ogun governor, who insiders say orchestrated a coordinated campaign of ward executives, some reportedly coerced into loyalty oaths, to issue public statements that directly contradict orders from the APC National Working Committee (NWC).

The NWC had explicitly instructed all parties in Ogun to maintain the status quo while it investigates the ongoing state chapter crisis. The directive carried implicit weight, believed to have emanated from President Tinubu's office.

Yet, according to party loyalists frustrated by events, Governor Abiodun's camp proceeded with carefully orchestrated public releases anyway—a calculated move that many describe as nothing short of insubordination against the national leadership.

What makes the governor's manoeuvre particularly brazen is the precarious position of Ogun's political structure. State and local government executives in Ogun have been operating beyond their mandate for months; their continued tenure made possible solely through the goodwill and tolerance of the NWC. That they would now openly defy the same leadership keeping them in office has left party insiders incredulous.

"It's pure provocation," one party insider remarked privately. "The governor knows these officials exist at the pleasure of the national party, yet he's using them to challenge that very authority."

For weeks, the national leadership maintained a measured silence on the Ogun crisis, a silence many political watchers attributed to careful observation of signals from the presidency. When the NWC finally issued its decisive statement, seasoned observers interpreted it as a watershed moment: Tinubu had given the green light for decisive action.

Now, as political analysts assess the implications of Governor Abiodun's latest move, many are asking a more troubling question: Is the governor preparing to "go for broke"? Whispers within political circles suggest he may be exploring overtures to opposition parties, a nuclear option capable of destabilising the entire APC structure in the Southwest and weakening Tinubu's political hold heading into the 2027 elections.

The stakes could hardly be higher.

Ogun State represents the jewel in the APC's Southwest crown. It is the only state in the region where the party maintains genuine cohesion, boasting heavyweight political figures including Aremo Olusegun Osoba, Senator Gbenga Daniel, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, and Governor Abiodun himself, all solidly within the APC fold.

This rare unity gives Ogun something no other Southwest state possesses: the capacity to reliably deliver approximately 90 percent of its vote to President Tinubu in 2027. More than that, Ogun's political influence transcends its borders, spilling naturally into Lagos, Oyo, and Osun due to geographical proximity and long-standing political networks.

Analysts who study electoral mathematics view Ogun as the indispensable foundation of the president's Southwest strategy. Any significant fracture in the state's APC structure, they warn, would send shockwaves through the entire region.

The surrounding political landscape makes this calculation even more critical. In Lagos, the 2023 "Obidient" surge that mobilised youth voters, combined with shifting sentiments in northern Nigeria, threatens to transform the state into a fiercely contested battleground. In Oyo, Governor Seyi Makinde's tightening grip on the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) continues to squeeze APC space. Osun presents its own complications, with the governorship election arriving soon and factional tensions, particularly between Adebayo Aregbesola's supporters and Iyiola Omisore's political calculations, complicating the path forward.

Ondo and Ekiti, by comparison, offer lukewarm political climates that provide little numerical buffer for the APC's regional strength.

Given these realities, Ogun's stability is not merely a state concern—it is existential for the APC's Southwest dominance.

Political observers now face an unsettling reality: Governor Abiodun's willingness to openly challenge directives understood to carry President Tinubu's personal endorsement suggests he may be serious about exploring what some call the "spoiler route." His latest public defiance, they argue, represents the opening move in a calculated gambit that could shake the political foundations of the entire region.

What unfolds in the coming weeks will likely determine not just the political future of Ogun's APC chapter, but the broader electoral arithmetic the president will face heading into 2027. The consequences extend far beyond one state's internal politics; they threaten the very foundation of the administration's Southwest strategy.

Source:

https://applesbite.com/abioduns-bold-defiance-threatens-to-unravel-apcs-southwest-stronghold/

"Eleyi" according to Tinubu should not try to outshine his master

wait wetin concern me


they should all fu** off

Senate ticket is the issue

Two jolly friends torn apart

What politics cannot do

Good riddance to bad rubbish of Darudapo Abiodun and the rest

Tinubu is a one time president mark my words

"Analysts who study electoral mathematics view Ogun as the indispensable foundation of the president's Southwest strategy. Any significant fracture in the state's APC structure, they warn, would send shockwaves through the entire region"


The above is true.


Peter Obi owns Lagos, politically!

LibertyRep:
Senate ticket is the issue

Two jolly friends torn apart

What politics cannot do

Dapo maa te. He doesn't know politics. Dapo cannot campaign against Tinubu. He dare not. The Ogun East senatorial ticket is eyeing can't be given to him. He doesn't deserve it. His election in 2019 was bcoz of the excesses of Amosun. Amosun had turned himself to emperor and Ogun State residents felt he shouldn't be allowed to replace himself. That's what made Dapo Abiodun to win, not bcoz he's done anything or that known to the people. He was unknown.

SpaceX:
Tinubu is a one time president mark my words

Just like hell rufai said that Tinubu would come 3rd but couldn't tell us who would take 1st and 2nd. You also failed to tell us who would come first. Tell us, don't be afraid, nobody would beat you.

Who give Eleyi of Eyiland the liver self? 🤔

Lol let's watch as the drama unfolds ...

Wetin concern agbero with over load, wetin concerning me with their wahala abi make dey scatter everything

LibertyRep:
Senate ticket is the issue

Two jolly friends torn apart

What politics cannot do

He is also interested in deciding who becomes the next governor. He will be disgraced by God's grace. He is the most useless governor in my state's history. Bad rubbish!

The nation is on fire. Bandits are making inroads into Ogun State, but na Senate ticket concern these set of crooks.

Abiodun is one of the worst governors ever produced in Nigeria!

Gov Abiodun will not get the ticket for Ogun East senatorial district.

He is just playing with fire and those unless party leaders especially that one living in Fajol axis of Abeokuta are just supporting him

Gbange Daniel for the ticket

Hallams:
"Eleyi" according to Tinubu should not try to outshine his master

wait wetin concern me


they should all fu** off

I still have the video clip where Tinubu referred to the Ogun state governor as "Eleyi." Whoever voted Tinubu really did posterity a disservice. Such a self important fellow should never have been allowed near power.

One thing anyone should know is you cannot control Ogun man, it's impossible

What is Dapo Abiodun trying to do?

Dapo Abiodun is playing a dangerous game. He should tread carefully.

Thank God people are beginning to wake up . Southsouth , north central are the only peaceful people we should tolerate in our region! Others should be keep on a tight leash!

The Eleyi of Ogun now fighting back... 🤣

Dapo Abiodun is just testing the waters. He'll retreat to the shadows soon enough.

If someway or somehow Tinubu secures a second term in office, I can guarantee it that Dapo’s daily ration of watery beans in Kuje prison is a settled matter. There will be no soft landing like Yahaya Bello’s case - that Ogun state liability should enjoy the immunity attached to the Governor’s office while it lasts! His period of reckoning awaits

South West and follow follow politics are like 5 and 6.

SpaceX:
Tinubu is a one time president mark my words

I will rather be a one term president than being a sore loser who jumps from one party to the other in search of free presidential ticket .

We will send him to where he belongs, behind the bars for looting Ogun treasury. It’s like he doesn’t know whom he is dealing with

[quote author=LibertyRep post=137565966]Senate ticket is the issue

Two jolly friends torn apart

What politics cannot do[/quot
It seems you understand the strategy behind Criss's maneuvers. He appears to be vying for the A.P.C. Ogun East ticket, presently held by OGD, the former governor. If he is wise, he should abandon this pursuit and bide his time for another chance. He ought to collaborate genuinely with the president to secure Ogun in 2027 for Asiwaju, who was instrumental in his gubernatorial ascent. However, should he succumb to greed, he may not withstand the consequences.

It seems you understand the strategy behind Criss's maneuvers. He appears to be vying for the A.P.C. Ogun East ticket, presently held by OGD, the former governor. If he is wise, he should abandon this pursuit and bide his time for another chance. He ought to collaborate genuinely with the president to secure Ogun in 2027 for Asiwaju, who was instrumental in his gubernatorial ascent. However, should he succumb to greed, he may not withstand the consequences.