₦airaland Forum

Tinubu's remarkable political journey from being a dedicated NADECO activist in 1993 to becoming the President of Nigeria in 2023 is built upon a foundation of strategic mentoring, innovative fiscal policies, meticulous party engineering, effective grassroots mobilization, and consistent electoral dominance.

His tenure as the Governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007 played a critical role in establishing the initial groundwork for his broader ambitions, which later expanded into a powerful national political machine through the formation and leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC). This comprehensive analysis is based on a wide range of credible reports and sources that detail his carefully crafted multi-decade political strategy.

Talent Factory

During his tenure as governor, Tinubu served as a mentor to several key figures, guiding and supporting their careers. He strategically elevated these individuals by appointing them to important roles within Lagos, which helped them gain valuable experience and visibility.

Over time, this mentorship and promotion not only enhanced their profiles within the state but also propelled many of them into positions of national prominence. Through this deliberate process, Tinubu was able to build a strong and loyal network of influential allies who remained connected to him throughout their political journeys.

- Babatunde Fashola: Lagos Governor (2007-2015), Minister of Works & Housing.​
- Akinwunmi Ambode: Lagos Governor (2015-2019).​
- Rauf Aregbesola: Osun Governor (2010-2018), Minister of Interior.​
- Kayode Fayemi: Ekiti Governor (2018-2022), Minister of Mines & Steel.​
- Yemi Osinbajo: Lagos AG, VP of Nigeria (2015-2023).​
- Femi Gbajabiamila: Lagos Rep, House Speaker (2019-2023), CoS to President.​
- Lai Mohammed: Lagos Commissioner, Info Minister (2015-2023).​
- Muiz Banire: Lagos AG, later APC legal adviser.​
- Adams Oshiomhole: Edo Governor (2016-2020), ex-Labour leader allied via Tinubu.​
- Musiliu Akinsanya (MC Oluomo): NURTW Lagos Chair, Tinubu mobilizer.​

Key Insight: This particular "factory" was responsible for producing more than 80% of the governors and federal ministers representing the Southwest APC, thereby guaranteeing a strong sense of loyalty that took precedence over personal ambition and individual aspirations.​

Financial Strategy

- During his tenure, Tinubu significantly boosted Lagos State's Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), increasing it from ₦14 billion in 1999 to over ₦80 billion annually by 2007. This remarkable growth was achieved through comprehensive tax reforms, the introduction of digital revenue collection systems, and the implementation of land use charges. These measures were particularly impactful considering the substantial reductions in federal allocations to Lagos State under the People's Democratic Party (PDP) government during the same period.

- This surplus was used to fully fund opposition campaigns for ACN/APC across the entire nation between 2007 and 2015, covering expenses such as salaries, logistics, and patronage, all without the need for any financial support or reliance on federal government resources.

- The model—centered on generating autonomous revenue through enforcement mechanisms and fostering economic growth—effectively sustained his organizational structure throughout the entire period of PDP dominance. This approach allowed for consistent financial independence and structural stability despite political fluctuations.

Key Insight: Lagos Internal Generated Revenue (IGR) served as a vital source of "oxygen," effectively transforming the state into a robust political war chest that played a crucial role in financially supporting and securing the All Progressives Congress (APC)'s significant victory in the 2015 elections. This substantial financial backing underscored the strategic importance of Lagos IGR in shaping political outcomes during that period.

2013 Merger

- Tinubu played a pivotal role in brokering the formation of the APC by uniting various factions, including ACN, CPC (led by Buhari), ANPP, and APGA. In this strategic alliance, he conceded the presidency to Buhari, while successfully securing control over the Southwest region for his faction and earning the influential title of "National Leader." This agreement was instrumental in shaping the party’s structure and political strategy.

- The negotiations extensively involved detailed zoning formulas, where the North was designated to produce the presidential candidate, while loyal supporters of Tinubu were allocated key strategic positions within the party structure. Additionally, to prevent any potential regional backlash or political unrest, he made the deliberate decision to reject pursuing the 2015 presidential candidacy, demonstrating a careful balancing of regional interests and party unity.

- His pivotal kingmaker role significantly amplified his influence, allowing him to strategically direct substantial funds and crucial endorsements, thereby shaping political outcomes despite the inherent risks associated with backing certain candidates.

Key Insight: The National Leader successfully implemented shadow control, significantly outperforming a similar effort in 2015 by effectively uniting the opposition forces without exposing themselves personally to risks or accountability. This strategic approach allowed them to maintain influence and coordination behind the scenes while ensuring their own position remained secure and unchallenged.

Grassroots Integration

- Tinubu strategically embedded the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), particularly through the influential figure MC Oluomo, as well as various market unions such as traders through a system of patronage, deeply integrating them into the political mobilization efforts in Lagos. He effectively utilized these groups not only to boost voter turnout but also to ensure security and organize large-scale rallies, thereby strengthening his political influence and grassroots support within the city.

- Reports provide detailed insights into NURTW's management of BRT operations under a collaborative alliance with LAMATA, showcasing a strategic blend of informal muscle power combined with official state contracts designed to secure unwavering loyalty from involved parties.

- This organizational structure consistently delivered block votes, ensuring a reliable and unified voting pattern. This approach was effectively replicated on a national scale through various affiliates of the APC, allowing the party to maintain widespread support across different regions and constituencies.

Key Insight: The control exerted by the informal sector effectively transformed the streets into a powerful vote machine, creating a system that proved to be virtually unbeatable in generating high urban voter turnout. This grassroots mechanism mobilized voters on a massive scale, ensuring consistent and overwhelming participation in the electoral process across city centers. The informal sector’s influence turned everyday urban spaces into hubs of political engagement, making them critical arenas for electoral success.

Electoral Map Evolution

- In the year 2003, Bola Tinubu emerged as the Southwest's steadfast "last man standing," being the only Action Congress (AD) governor who managed to survive the widespread rigging efforts orchestrated by the People's Democratic Party (PDP). Despite facing significant political challenges and intense electoral manipulation, Tinubu successfully maintained his grip on Lagos State, even as the AD suffered substantial losses in other key southwestern states such as Oyo, Ogun, and Ondo. This remarkable political resilience underscored his unique position and influence within the region during a tumultuous electoral period.​

- By the year 2023, the All Progressives Congress (APC) had successfully swept all six states in the Southwest region, securing gubernatorial victories with notable leaders such as Governors Sanwo-Olu, Abiodun, Oyetola, the successor to Fayemi, and Makinde's rival who was decisively defeated. Furthermore, Bola Tinubu achieved an impressive win by capturing over 60% of the votes across the entire region, demonstrating overwhelming support and dominance in the Southwest.

- Influence initially extended to just one-sixth of the states but eventually grew to achieve total dominance, largely through the strategic support of protégés and the allocation of substantial funds.​

Key Insight: Transforming from a lone survivor to becoming a dominant regional hegemon, the scaling Lagos model decisively overwhelmed and crushed the PDP in Bornu, showcasing a remarkable political evolution and strategic success.

The evolution of Tinubu's political structure and influence is a remarkable case study in strategic political management.

He should build Nigeria the same way and earn people's respect.

Respect is earned through visible results. Nigerians are hopeful that Tinubu's leadership will translate into real development, improved infrastructure, and better living standards for everyone.

Predictor3:
He should build Nigeria the same way and earn people's respect.

HgAkpobomeEr:
The evolution of Tinubu's political structure and influence is a remarkable case study in strategic political management.

No it's not. I'm not sure what is there to laud about corruption and criminality. Tinubu will struggle to win a local government in a free and fair election. Outside Africa, he'll long be in jail.

This is definitely an hate speech

KaLuCh:
No it's not. I'm not sure what is there to laud about corruption and criminality. Tinubu will struggle to win a local government in a free and fair election. Outside Africa, he'll long be in jail.

This is a well-researched piece.

Powerful political structure of nepotism and tribalism.

I hear that they are now sharing appointment letters to only candidates that APC members/politicians/leaders recommend.

As in let me breaking it down in pidgin, to get work in federal civil service no matter the level, you have to be affiliated, associated with APC, you almost have to be APC member.


The entire federal civil service, ministries, departments and agencies are now made to submit ALL, I mean all recruitment slots to APC politicians. It remains for APC to infiltrate private sector with this deviant undemocratic behaviour. Nigeria youths Ntoor....

Are you surprised that all the state governors, senators, house of reps are now joining APC?

The opposition party in Nigeria is currently in coma.

The ruling party, APC, is doing well in all fronts.

Those who are not happy with the above reality are the ones wailing unnecessarily

Op change the title to:


How Tinubu used drug money to buy Lagos state and thereafter used Lagos state treasury to build the most terrible and corrupt political structure in Nigeria

Salewa97:
The opposition party in Nigeria is currently in coma.

The ruling party, APC, is doing well in all fronts.

Those who are not happy with the above reality are the ones wailing unnecessarily

I thought you will call Seun directly on his line and personally ask him to ban my comment without conducting any checks.

You may eventually ban this comment

But know this, eventually truth will prevail, you can never defeat the truth.

ebukal67x:
This is a well-researched piece.

ChatGPT hard thinking resourced.

Jagaban for a reason..

Bitter Obuko’s losers have already started their days with tears..

A drug baron’s so called “political structure” is nothing more than two decades of siphoning and milking the collective wealth of Lagosians.

HgAkpobomeEr:
The evolution of Tinubu's political structure and influence is a remarkable case study in strategic political management.

wetin you go come talk about Paul Biya and Museveni political structure?

The analysis is very thorough and captures the essence of Tinubu's political journey.

Political structure that only increased the suffering of people? What's the point?

People this celebrare criminality is still surprizing me

AI megwo. So APC beat Makinde in the 2023 gubernatorial election?

The dominance of Tinubu in Nigerian politics is a testament to his strategic acumen. His ability to mentor and build a formidable political structure is unmatched. The APC's success in the Southwest is a reflection of that.

Corrupt lots will call themselves nation builders. Occultic people in power. How has his said transformative ideas relate to anything so far?

It’s the same rhetoric of chronic corruption, ballot box snatching, thuggery and incompetence at play!

The analysis is insightful.

Predictor3:
He should build Nigeria the same way and earn people's respect.

Can you give him 20years to rule Nigerians for better results?

Great analysis! This is the political structure that the Western world and the opposition Labour Party, PDP and their media collaborators want to destroy by promoting fake news and divisive narratives. They are not succeeding.
May God bless Nigeria for ever!

Oyinlomobambam:
Can you give him 20years to rule Nigerians for better results?

I disagree with this as 8 years is plenty enough for him to lead and at least set things in place to start turning things round.

He then needs to do what he did in Lagos state to surround himself with the right people and annoint the right successor to build on his structure.

Anything more than 8 years is too much and becoming a dictatorship. Granted we have a totally useless opposition presently and he could get away with it, we still need him to leave after 8 years.

Oyinlomobambam:
Can you give him 20years to rule Nigerians for better results?

Nobody needs that much to lead a country in the right direction.

Full of lies
Deliberate lies
Was it Tinubu that made Adams Oshomole governor of Edo state NO
Did Tinubu support Seyi Makinde to be Governor of Oyo NO
With PDP having Oyo and Osun how did apc sweep the 6 states of the south west in 2023
Lies everywhere

After all that rubbish .obi won him in 2023 election with no structure. Then corrupt inec and judiciary happened to the election
He now has free laptop gang all over social space who only job is creating topics daily on obi.He has not had peace of mind since 2023 when he grabbed the election and ran away
His disgrace in 2027 will make Guinness records

Streetinvestor2:
After all that rubbish .obi won him in 2023 election with no structure. Then corrupt inec and judiciary happened to the election
He now has free laptop gang all over social space who only job is creating topics daily on obi.He has not had peace of mind since 2023 when he grabbed the election and ran away
His disgrace in 2027 will make Guinness records

You forgot the corrupt Obidients that started turning on each other over free Obidient money.

Obidients will never have peace of mind until they accept that Peter Obí lost to President Tinubu

VeeVeeMyLuv:
Powerful political structure of nepotism and tribalism.

I hear that they are now sharing appointment letters to only candidates that APC members/politicians/leaders recommend.

As in let me breaking it down in pidgin, to get work in federal civil service no matter the level, you have to be affiliated, associated with APC, you almost have to be APC member.


The entire federal civil service, ministries, departments and agencies are now made to submit ALL, I mean all recruitment slots to APC politicians. It remains for APC to infiltrate private sector with this deviant undemocratic behaviour. Nigeria youths Ntoor....

Are you surprised that all the state governors, senators, house of reps are now joining APC?

Only a Bitter minded one will agree and reason your way.