₦airaland Forum

2027 POLITICS: Peter Obi’s Defection Carries No Electoral Weight, Tinubu’s Prospects Remain Firm — Godwin Obire

Point-Blank Magazine
By Godwin Okohenetaga

The Executive Assistant to the Delta State Governor on Political Affairs, Olorogun Godwin Obire, PhD, has dismissed the recent political realignment involving former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, describing it as politically insignificant and incapable of affecting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s chances in the 2027 presidential election.

Speaking on the development, Obire said the coalition being promoted by Obi and his new political associates amounts to what he called a gathering of “politically exhausted figures” whose past records, he argued, have already been rejected by Nigerians. He listed former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President Bukola Saraki, NNPP leader Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir el-Rufai as politicians whose years in leadership, according to him, coincided with worsening poverty, insecurity, and stalled development, particularly in Northern Nigeria.

Obire stated that their decision to regroup under a new political platform does not erase their past performance, nor does it change public perception. He argued that Nigerians, especially in the North, are now more politically aware and less likely to be swayed by what he described as recycled political alliances.

According to him, Northern Nigeria continues to grapple with the consequences of years of ineffective governance and elite-driven politics, and voters, he said, are unlikely to entrust power again to leaders they associate with those outcomes. Obire maintained that any attempt to regain relevance through Peter Obi or a new coalition would fail at the polls in 2027.

Turning to the ruling party, Obire said President Tinubu approaches the next election with significant institutional advantages. He pointed to the All Progressives Congress’ national structure, its control of key states, and its established grassroots machinery across multiple regions of the country. He noted that Tinubu’s political base in the South-West remains solid, while the APC continues to build competitive strength in the South-South and South-East through influential party leaders and sitting governors.

Obire dismissed claims that an ADC-led coalition could pose a serious threat to the incumbent president, describing such expectations as disconnected from political realities on the ground. He argued that defeating a sitting president with broad party support, experienced organizers, and nationwide networks would require more than what he termed a “coalition of convenience.”

He concluded by saying that the 2027 general election would be decided by political structure, leadership capacity, and voter discernment rather than online activism or media noise. According to Obire, Nigerians are increasingly able to distinguish between political rhetoric and effective power, and as a result, President Tinubu remains well positioned to secure a second term.

Obire's analysis is spot on.

We don hear
Same way una talk say he no go get 1,000 votes in the last elections. Aftermath what happened
Simple mathematics get the number of Nigerians ,get the numbers suffering and curses this government on a daily.get the number of business owners that have been frustrated. next count the number of governors defecting to APC add it to data boys and data men .do the minus and plus and you will see the number of Nigerians willing to send tinubu back to iragbiji.
Of course we know the only plan of winning is rigging because data boys plus data men plus governors defecting plus lagos agberos cannot give tinubu the votes he need.

The writer's name is already a confirmation that the analysis is coming from a biased angle.

The analysis is however not bad.

The 2027 election would be decided by political structure, leadership capacity, and voter discernment rather than online activism or media noise.

Same thing they said of Obi in 2023 later both Sheriff and Agege came to beg the Obidients after LP had a clean sweep of the State. Underestimate Obi in the South south, Lagos, South east and Christian middle belt at your own peril. Sheriff even won on the strong support of Obidients, given their natural dislike for APC, especially in Delta North which is Anioma and very pro-Obi. I remember they did Obidients for Sheriff campaign in the week of the postponed Governorship election in Asaba. If he likes he should do otherwise and see how Agege or Ogboru will curry favour with the Obidients. Once they do that, I only hope his projects help him.
Reminder: excluding Delta North, Agege and Sheriff had almost equal votes in 2023.
Tinubu remains well positioned yes but don't underestimate Nigerians. You even added Kwankwaso to the coalition that's good. Tinubu himself is a past politician.

Salewa97:
The writer's name is already a confirmation that the analysis is coming from a biased angle.

The analysis is however not bad.

The 2027 election would be decided by political structure, leadership capacity, and voter discernment rather than online activism or media noise.

Loool I thought so in 2023 but not in Delta State. OOkowa as a sitting governor then, totally in control of all the structures and vice presidential hopeful of pdp even struggled to win his LGA. His daughter ended up begging and hosting several Obidients in owa before she won her sit. A free and fair election is all we ask for and you will see structures of criminality being destroyed. A good political structure is built on ideology not what we have in Nigeria currently. That's why I prefer the 1st Republic parties, they had ideology.

All these analyses sef.

In reality peter obi is irrelevant, someone that can't win his poling unit for his party in last anambra state governorship election

yarimo:
In reality peter obi is irrelevant, someone that can't win his poling unit for his party in last anambra state governorship election

Tinubu was the only candidate in 2023 who failed to win his own state among all the presidential aspirants. Going by your logic, Tinubu is irrelevant. Before you come back saying "but he's the president". Yes, he's the president thanks to Northern votes. He was summarily rejected and defeated in the South.

I agree with Obire. It is obvious that the coalition of politically exhausted figures led by Peter Obi will not make any impact on President Tinubu's chances in 2027.

May God bless Nigeria for ever!