₦airaland Forum

Brendaniel:
I've decided to reply you so that you can see for yourself that your analysis is wrong if you stake it only on budget...

This is Rivers state budget for 2023 by Wike, 550 billion naira converted to dollars was 1.34 billion dollars, I used 2022 exchange rate because I didn't want the exchange rate to clash with Tinubu's exchange rate in 2023 and the budget was passed in 2022 for 2023.

Now in 2025 using Tinubu's exchange rate Rivers state passed a budget of 1.4 trillion and after conversion to dollar is 966 million dollars, you see why I told you that Tinubu's allocation did not increase in any value, infact it decreased....


And if you use state budgeting as a yardstick you would not get the actual value, because state governors differ in planning,

What you should be looking at is FAAC allocation value sent to the states in dollars which I have also shown you the calculations that it decreased in value due to the naira devaluation...

So what exactly has Tinubu improved?

550 billion was not more than 1 billion dollars back then. There was even a dual exchange rate and the economy was a mess because of that. In 2023 most people could change dollars for around 700. Only government connected people got around 500. If we use 700 exchange rate which was the market rate then the budget was much smaller
Rivers might be doing something wrong but they still moved from under one billion dollars to like 1.2 billion dollars or thereabout which is an increase. Show me one state that experienced a decrease in the dollar value of the budget. Let's even use 500 for 2023 despite that the market rate was 700


Rivers state budget in 2026 is 1.8 trillion and that is over 1.2 billion dollars. The figure you quoted is wrong.

Then Rivers is a bit like Lagos. Use a state for example that depends mainly on allocation but even at that Rivers state budget as substantially increased by dollar value

lawani:
550 billion was not more than 1 billion dollars back then. There was even a dual exchange rate and the economy was a mess because of that. In 2023 most people could change dollars for around 700. Only government connected people got around 500. If we use 700 exchange rate which was the market rate then the budget was much smaller
Rivers might be doing something wrong but they still moved from under one billion dollars to like 1.2 billion dollars or thereabout which is an increase. Show me one state that experienced a decrease in the dollar value of the budget. Let's even use 500 for 2023 despite that the market rate was 700


Rivers state budget in 2026 is 1.8 trillion and that is over 1.2 billion dollars. The figure you quoted is wrong

Why not do your own calculation and show me to prove your point?

Use verifiable calculations like I am doing to drive your point, stop using your own exchange rates that are not verifiable, I am using AI with verifiable links for my calculations, do the same...

Because I can equally stop using AI with verifiable links and start dishing out my own exchange rates to my favour...

Brendaniel:
Why not do your own calculation and show me prove your point?

Use verifiable calculations like I am doing to drive your point, stop using your own exchange rates that are not verifiable, I am using AI with verifiable links for my calculations, do the same...

Because I can equally stop using AI with verifiable links and start dishing out my own exchange rates to my favour...

If I use 700 that was the rate in the open market then Rivers budget will only be some hundreds of millions of dollars and not close to one billion dollars but I closed it at one billion dollars using 500. You were wrong about Rivers 2026 budget. It is 1.8 trillion and not 1.4 trillion and that is like 1.3 billion dollars. Then Rivers state is not a state that depends on allocations. They have always had IGR. Use a state with insignificant igr

lawani:
If I use 700 that was the rate in the open market then Rivers budget will only be some hundreds of millions of dollars and not close to one billion dollars but I closed it at one billion dollars using 500. You were wrong about Rivers 2026 budget. It is 1.8 trillion and not 1.4 trillion and that is like 1.3 billion dollars. Then Rivers state is not a state that depends on allocations. They have always had IGR. Use a state with insignificant igr

I won't respond to you if you don't show me working calculations with verifiable exchange rates sources, you can't be throwing claims without evidence...

Antoeni:
https://punchng.com/private-depots-raise-petrol-to-n800-litre-in-lagos/

Alhaji aliko , please change gear to #600/litre, Dem go run out of business

Brendaniel:
I won't respond to you if you don't show me working calculations with verifiable exchange rates sources, you can't be throwing claims without evidence...

I am using AI too and market rate for dollar in 2023 was 700 while government rate was around 500. Did your AI tell you anything different?
Bottom line is there no state whose budget has not increased substantially in dollar value since 2023. That is the point I am making. Osun was 200 million dollars in 2023 and 500 million dollars in 2026 if we use 500 to one dollar in 2023 and 1500 to one dollar in 2026. If we used the market rate for dollar in 2023 then the gap will even be wider. That is the point.

Kano's budget 2023 350 billion which is around 700 million dollars if exchange rate is 500
Kano's 2026 budget is 1.47 trillion which is around one billion dollars today at exchange rate of 1500

lawani:
I am using AI too and market rate for dollar in 2023 was 700 while government rate was around 500. Did your AI tell you anything different?
Bottom line is there no state whose budget has not increased substantially in dollar value since 2023. That is the point I am making. Osun was 200 million dollars in 2023 and 500 million dollars in 2026 if we use 500 to one dollar in 2023 and 1500 to one dollar in 2026. If we used the market rate for dollar in 2023 then the gap will even be wider. That is the point.

Kano's budget 2023 350 billion which is around 700 million dollars if exchange rate is 500
Kano's 2026 budget is 1.47 trillion which is around one billion dollars today at exchange rate of 1500

Show me the screenshot like I am doing..... I didn't bother reading the rest of your comment...

Brendaniel:
No, because private depot operate without government regulation and intervention, they are sovereign entities abi?

What regulations are talking about, because you’re sounding like an illiterate if you don’t know. The same regulations that apply to the aviation industry but they decided to make you people cry by increasing air fares?. Regulations is one thing, a deregulated industry is another. Learn to understand something before speaking next time.

Hammylawali:
What regulations are talking about, because you’re sounding like an illiterate if you don’t know. The same regulations that apply to the aviation industry but they decided to make you people cry by increasing air fares?. Regulations is one thing, a deregulated industry is another. Learn to understand something before speaking next time.

So what are these agencies existing for ?

You might just be referring to yourself...

Brendaniel:
Show me the screenshot like I am doing..... I didn't bother reading the rest of your comment...

Dollar to naira in 2023. But this is something you can get yourself. Then there is no way the allocations would not have increased after the subsidy removal and if it does not increase can you blame anybody? Maybe the price of oil dropped. It is not something one person can do alone and the FG can not take more than it's percentage of revenue. It is a no brainier that allocations to states increased.

If the President is pocketing the money saved from the subsidy removal and not giving states and local governments their constitutionally approved share who is to blame? Or how is that possible?

Then the real exchange rate for 2023 was not 500 to one dollar. It was more like 700 on average. You can't even compare dollar value and be right because the forex market was not a free market as at early 2023.

Brendaniel:
Show me the screenshot like I am doing..... I didn't bother reading the rest of your comment...

Rivers budget in 2026 was not 1.4 trillion as you claimed but 1.8 trillion

https://punchng.com/rivers-approves-n1-8tn-2026-budget/

Brendaniel:
Show me the screenshot like I am doing..... I didn't bother reading the rest of your comment...

You really did a job on the agbadeau
But you shouldn't have bothered
Anyone using budget expansion to prove increase in revenue value is simply a dunce
Even the FG is yet to complete its 2024 budget in 2026
How many states can boast of just 70% budget performance
Add you pointed out to him, the main determinant for revenue increase is the allocation not budget. The allocation in dollar terms shows no substantial increase in value
More importantly, the real buffer for state allocation increase is VAT and electronic transfer levy not oil remittances from NNPCL
Oil remittances from NNPCL still remains poor so much so that their debts are now being written off to save face

Kukutente23:
You really did a job on the agbadeau
But you shouldn't have bothered
Anyone using budget expansion to prove increase in revenue value is simply a dunce
Even the FG is yet to complete its 2024 budget in 2026
How many states can boast of just 70% budget performance
Add you pointed out to him, the main determinant for revenue increase is the allocation not budget. The allocation in dollar terms shows no substantial increase in value
More importantly, the real buffer for state allocation increase is VAT and electronic transfer levy not oil remittances from NNPCL
Oil remittances from NNPCL still remains poor so much so that their debts are now being written off to save face

Are you minding these guys, I believe deep down in their minds some of them know the truth but to them, they must defend their person in power even if doesn't make sense...

lawani:
Rivers budget in 2026 was not 1.4 trillion as you claimed but 1.8 trillion

https://punchng.com/rivers-approves-n1-8tn-2026-budget/

I said 2025, go back to my post and see for yourself...

Brendaniel:
Show me the screenshot like I am doing..... I didn't bother reading the rest of your comment...

Then I might be wrong because I don't actually know how they agreed to share the gains from oil subsidy removal. Federal government was borrowing money to pay the subsidy. It must also be realized that subsidy removal is not an increase in revenue but a reduction in government expenditure. The FG revenue is yet to increase but some expenditures has been removed. The revenue can sharply increase from the new tax law and that will automatically increase allocations to states. If there was no agreement on how to share the savings from subsidy removal then the FG will be right to keep the monies to itself since everybody is looking for money

lawani:
Dollar to naira in 2023. But this is something you can get yourself. Then there is no way the allocations would not have increased after the subsidy removal and if it does not increase can you blame anybody? Maybe the price of oil dropped. It is not something one person can do alone and the FG can not take more than it's percentage of revenue. It is a no brainier that allocations to states increased.

If the President is pocketing the money saved from the subsidy removal and not giving states and local governments their constitutionally approved share who is to blame? Or how is that possible?

Then the real exchange rate for 2023 was not 500 to one dollar. It was more like 700 on average. You can't even compare dollar value and be right because the forex market was not a free market as at early 2023.

You have not done calculation with AI, use AI to do your calculation based on verifiable exchange rates sourced by AI, that was what I did.

You can see all my calculations showed the references of the sources for the exchange rates it used to calculate, do the same....

Brendaniel:
I said 2025, go back to my post and see for yourself...

Ok. I was not quoting 2025 figures for Osun that I quoted. I did 2023 and 2026. If we use 2025 then what is the valid exchange rate for 2023? It was a dual exchange rate at the beginning of the year and 900 by June. In early 2023 more than seventy percent of those who needed forex will get it at 740

lawani:
Then I might be wrong because I don't actually know how they agreed to share the gains from oil subsidy removal. Federal government was borrowing money to pay the subsidy. It must also be realized that subsidy removal is not an increase in revenue but a reduction in government expenditure. The FG revenue is yet to increase but some expenditures has been removed. The revenue can sharply increase from the new tax law and that will automatically increase allocations to states. If there was no agreement on how to share the savings from subsidy removal then the FG will be right to keep the monies to itself since everybody is looking for money

So what is Tinubu borrowing for and how come has he borrowed more than all his predecessors in his first 3 years compared to their first 3 years?

Dude if you need the data for this I will start rolling it out for you again...


You guys seem not to understand the kind of damage Tinubu has done to Nigeria or you people just simply want to live in self denial...

lawani:
Ok. I was not quoting 2025 figures for Osun that I quoted. I did 2023 and 2026. If we use 2025 then what is the valid exchange rate for 2023? It was a dual exchange rate at the beginning of the year and 900 by June. In early 2023 more than seventy percent of those who needed forex will get it at 740

That was why I used 2022 for it before Tinbu came on board and did the damage to the exchange rate..., the exchange rate for 2022 was fully under Buhari and the budget was passed in 2022 using 2022 exchange rate...

What's any reasonable person's business with them?
So, I'll leave MRS that sells better quality fuel at cheaper rate with mostly accurate meter readings, and go buy from those GREEDY CRIMINALS whose
- Price is higher
- Sells less quality fuel
- Have adjusted their meter readings to cheat people
?

Brendaniel:
You have not done calculation with AI, use AI to do your calculation based on verifiable exchange rates sourced by AI, that was what I did.

You can see all my calculations showed the references of the sources for the exchange rates it used to calculate, do the same....

You can't use 440 and be right in your calculation when maybe ninety percent of people were buying at 740. Let us leave it at that. You maybe right as I said because I don't know what agreement they had on how to share the funds saved from oil subsidy removal. In principle it is federal government money. I only used a few states to show that the dollar value of state budgets are rising. Then allocations to states will drop if the revenue drops and the revenue is like fifty percent oil money which can drop anytime. I don't know anything about how they agreed to share the money saved from oil subsidy removal

Brendaniel:
That was why I used 2022 for it before Tinbu came on board and did the damage to the exchange rate..., the exchange rate for 2022 was fully under Buhari and the budget was passed in 2022 using 2022 exchange rate...

Buhari was using dual exchange rate and Tinubu stopped it. People with privilege were buying millions of dollars at 440 even 350 and crossing the street to sell it at 750. The dual exchange rate was in place in 2022

lawani:
You can't use 440 and be right in your calculation when maybe ninety percent of people were buying at 740. Let us leave it at that. You maybe right as I said because I don't know what agreement they had on how to share the funds saved from oil subsidy removal. In principle it is federal government money. I only used a few states to show that the dollar value of state budgets are rising. Then allocations to states will drop if the revenue drops and the revenue is like fifty percent oil money which can drop anytime. I don't know anything about how they agreed to share the money saved from oil subsidy removal

Let me just state something clear here, government and its agencies whether federal or state do not use black market rates to base their exchange rate for budgeting, planning, allocation, purchase or payments, they use only the official CBN rate because that's where they source and deposit their dollars from both income and expenditure except when they want to steal....

So what excuse are you trying to give for them in my calculations here?

Brendaniel:
Let me just state something clear here, government and its agencies whether federal or state do not use black market rates to base their exchange rate for budgeting, planning, allocation, purchase or payments, they use only the official CBN rate because that's where they source and deposit their dollars from both income and expenditure except when they want to steal....

So what excuse are you trying to give for them in my calculations here?

What is the real rate is what matters. Not what FG says. If one million people buys at 740 and ten thousand people bought at 350. What is the real rate?. What is the rate that matters to the average importer or exporter?

lawani:
Buhari was using dual exchange rate and Tinubu stopped it. People with privilege were buying millions of dollars at 440 even 350 and crossing the street to sell it at 750. The dual exchange rate was in place in 2022

Buhari never used dual exchange rate, he used only the CBN exchange rate and that is where he based all his plannings, revenue budgetings, allocations and expenditures from...

If he used 2 exchange rates the accounts may never balance and it would have caused serious problems for his entire government...

Here we go again,same old shit dog just a different day.

lawani:
What is the real rate is what matters. Not what FG says. If one million people buys at 740 and ten thousand people bought at 350. What is the real rate?. What is the rate that matters to the average importer or exporter?

Listen to yourself, Was the FG buying at 740?

Was the FG selling at 740?

Was the FG planning budgets at 740?

Was the FG selling crude oil per barrel using 740 as the exchange rate to a dollar?

Listen to yourself, we are talking solely about government here both state and federal not private individuals that got and spent dollars at the official CBN rate...

Brendaniel:
Buhari never used dual exchange rate, he used only the CBN exchange rate and that is where he based all his plannings, revenue budgetings, allocations and expenditures from...

If he used 2 exchange rates the accounts may never balance and it would have caused serious problems for his entire government...

Is the CBN using the market rate? You flood the economy with naira and you refuse to sell your oil dollars at what people are asking for it. You also go ahead to confiscate people's dollars by not allowing people to freely use domiciliary accounts. You sell dollars only to your cronies at 40 percent of what people are ready to pay. It was a swindle. They are printing naira recklessly but want to prop up the value

lawani:
Is the CBN using the market rate? You flood the economy with naira and you refuse to sell your oil dollars at what people are asking for it. You also go ahead to confiscate people's dollars by not allowing people to freely use domiciliary accounts. You sell dollars only to your cronies at 40 percent of what people are ready to pay. It was a swindle. They are printing naira recklessly but want to prip up the value

Did the government ever tell you they were starved of dollars from the CBN?

Brendaniel:
Listen to yourself, Was the FG buying at 740?

Was the FG selling at 740?

Was the FG planning budgets at 740?

Was the FG selling crude oil per barrel using 740 as the exchange rate to a dollar?

Listen to yourself, we are talking solely about government here both state and federal not private individuals that got and spent dollars at the official CBN rate...

During Buhari time which one is the correct rate that someone in the economy without government connections must use? That one is the real rate than any other

Brendaniel:
Did the government ever tell you they were starved of dollars from the CBN?

In Japan the chief owners of forex are companies like Toyota and etc. In Nigeria it is the FG. How will it possible for them to be starved of dollars?.

lawani:
In Japan the chief owners of forex are companies like Toyota and etc. In Nigeria it is the FG. How will it possible for them to be starved of dollars?.

So why then are you making excuses for their official exchange rate given to them by them by the CBN for their planning, budgeting and allocation?

Does the black market affect them?