₦airaland Forum

Nigeria is free from oil dependence

I read earlier from a lady in government that oil revenue is now less than half of government revenue in Nigeria and I wrote it like that during a debate with someone online only for someone to oppose me then for me to find out via AI that as at first quarter 2025 that oil revenue was less than 25 percent of total federal government revenue in Nigeria. Nigeria is officially no longer majorly dependent on Niger delta oil but on incomes from avenues like VAT, CIT, customs and etc. This is a good news that should be celebrated by all Nigerians.
It explains why most states now have big budgets
The country is a country of over 200 million and it can be like western Europe if it is organized like western Europe. There is nothing they do in Europe than everybody pay tax to make life easier for everybody.
It is like what President Bola Tinubu did in Lagos he has successfully done it at Abuja.
The feat was achieved without any special law. I project that with the new law, oil and gas revenue will become less than ten percent of federal government revenue by December 2026 and maybe less than one percent in two years

It will skyrocket now that Tinubu has started taxing us.

chariisGRACE:
It will skyrocket now that Tinubu has started taxing us.

It appears even without the tax law the non oil revenue has overshadowed oil revenue

chariisGRACE:
It will skyrocket now that Tinubu has started taxing us.

Well,we will manage.
50k for #10,000 and above transfer is very minimal.
At least,I can give a beggar #100 everyday.I would equally be happy to pay tax if our politicians would utilize it morally.

Putinofrussia:
Well,we will manage.
50k for #10,000 and above transfer is very minimal.
At least,I can give a beggar #100 everyday.I would equally be happy to pay tax if our politicians would utilize it morally.

It seems Tinubu is about to turn Nigeria into a real country. Let's wait and see

lawani:
Nigeria is free from oil dependence

I read earlier from a lady in government that oil revenue is now less than half of government revenue in Nigeria and I wrote it like that during a debate with someone online only for someone to oppose me then for me to find out via AI that as at first quarter 2025 that oil revenue was less than 25 percent of total federal government revenue in Nigeria. Nigeria is officially no longer majorly dependent on Niger delta oil but on incomes from avenues like VAT, CIT, customs and etc. This is a good news that should be celebrated by all Nigerians.
It explains why most states now have big budgets
The country is a country of over 200 million and it can be like western Europe if it is organized like western Europe. There is nothing they do in Europe than everybody pay tax to make life easier for everybody.
It is like what President Bola Tinubu did in Lagos he has successfully done it at Abuja.
The feat was achieved without any special law. I project that with the new law, oil and gas revenue will become less than ten percent of federal government revenue by December 2026 and maybe less than one percent in two years

So what is Tinubu still taking loans for?

Brendaniel:
So what is Tinubu still taking loans for?

We don't know yet if they are going to take more loans but loan or no loans it is still a good development that the oil revenue has dropped as a percentage of government revenue. I believe all governments should spend less than their revenue. It is possible to be debt free. Sokoto state is debt free. However if you have an urgent project, loans too are not bad

lawani:
Nigeria is free from oil dependence

I read earlier from a lady in government that oil revenue is now less than half of government revenue in Nigeria and I wrote it like that during a debate with someone online only for someone to oppose me then for me to find out via AI that as at first quarter 2025 that oil revenue was less than 25 percent of total federal government revenue in Nigeria. Nigeria is officially no longer majorly dependent on Niger delta oil but on incomes from avenues like VAT, CIT, customs and etc. This is a good news that should be celebrated by all Nigerians.
It explains why most states now have big budgets
The country is a country of over 200 million and it can be like western Europe if it is organized like western Europe. There is nothing they do in Europe than everybody pay tax to make life easier for everybody.
It is like what President Bola Tinubu did in Lagos he has successfully done it at Abuja.
The feat was achieved without any special law. I project that with the new law, oil and gas revenue will become less than ten percent of federal government revenue by December 2026 and maybe less than one percent in two years

I guess you have put out this shameful post because you want/hope to be given propaganda job....

Because this is like declaring to Nigerians that Black is White when everyone including you can clearly see that it is still Black

If you'd deign to indulge me though, what exactly are the 'non-oil' exports that have displaced crude sales from its prime position per forex income?

lawani:
It appears even without the tax law the non oil revenue has overshadowed oil revenue

Loooooool. Una sha.

Jamie248:
Because this is like declaring to Nigerians that Black is White when everyone including you can clearly see that it is still Black

If you'd deign to indulge me though, what exactly are the 'non-oil' exports that have displaced crude sales from its prime position per forex income?

'Forex income' as you put is not some magically powerful revenue that is superior to other forms of revenue, afterall the foreign revenue Nigeria earns from oil is still mostly converted into Naira by the CBN before it is shared between the federal govt and the States. Exactly the same way revenue from FIRS, Customs and other domestic source are shared in the same manner.

So foreign revenue is not so super special that a like for like comparison with revenue originating from Nigeria should never be made as you seem to suggest.

If the poster is correct that revenue from crude oil is falling while domestic revenue is rising, it is entirely plausible and the notion shouldn't be dismissed.

For domestic revenue Nigeria is not dependent on oil but for forex which you need to take part in international trade Nigeria is 100% dependent on oil. Abi can you spend your naira in any country apart from Nigeria

DeLaRue:
'Forex income' as you put is not some magically powerful revenue that is superior to other forms of revenue, afterall the foreign revenue Nigeria earns from oil is still mostly converted into Naira by the CBN before it is shared between the federal govt and the States. Exactly the same way revenue from FIRS, Customs and other domestic source are shared in the same manner.

So foreign revenue is not so super special that a like for like comparison with revenue originating from Nigeria should never be made as you seem to suggest.

If the poster is correct that revenue from crude oil is falling while domestic revenue is rising, it is entirely plausible and the notion shouldn't be dismissed.

What exactly is being produced for export that tops out income from crude sales?

Dangote is the only significant addition to Nigeria's revenue profile in 2025 and he is still classed within the oil & gas sector, you can't call his inflows 'non-oil'

FIRS (tax), Customs (another name for tax) those figures are entirely suspect given they are coming from govt officials who lied that they 'met their 2025 revenue projection by August' until the Finance dude mistakenly exposed the huge lie the other time. And let's not even go into the detail/fact that most of Nigeria's tax revenues are off of consumption as opposed to production, especially import taxes like the much vaunted customs duties/revenues

lawani:
We don't know yet if they are going to take more loans but loan or no loans it is still a good development that the oil revenue has dropped as a percentage of government revenue. I believe all governments should spend less than their revenue. It is possible to be debt free. Sokoto state is debt free. However if you have an urgent project, loans too are not bad

But in Tinubu's case the debts are piling up, so what is the justification?

Brendaniel:
But in Tinubu's case the debts are piling up, so what is the justification?

It's clearly a lie na...

If someone keeps telling you that he is a billionaire but everyday he keeps borrowing up and down, to the extent his creditors dey constantly embarrass am for public place, won't you realize that he is lying to you?

lawani:
It seems Tinubu is about to turn Nigeria into a real country. Let's wait and see

I keep telling people to give Tinubu a chance.

Tinubu is intelligent. Leave him to fix this land.

Jamie248:
It's clearly a lie na...

If someone keeps telling you that he is a billionaire but everyday he keeps borrowing up and down, to the extent his creditors dey constantly embarrass am for public place, won't you realize that he is lying to you?

What is a lie?

Jamie248:
It's clearly a lie na...

If someone keeps telling you that he is a billionaire but everyday he keeps borrowing up and down, to the extent his creditors dey constantly embarrass am for public place, won't you realize that he is lying to you?

Nigeria does not earn enough to NOT borrow.

Hardly any country does. Except a handful of tiny gulf states like UAE and Kuwait.

Even the USA owes over $38 TRILLION.

Nigeria's current debt is $90 billion.

Yet we are almost the same population as USA. They have 320 million people. We have 250 million.

We are massively under-borrowed.

We need to borrow MORE, NOT LESS.

Given our size, out debt level is criminally low.

We should be owing at least $5 TRILLION by now.

And the whole country would be looking like heaven!!

Industries everywhere generating money.

How the USA is repaying their own is how we will repay ours.

If I was the president, I would BORROW ALL BORROWABLES AND BUILD THE COUNTRY.

$TRILLIONS.

When we are a superpower in 10 years' time and the creditors come knocking, we will sit down and share drink with them and talk.

Kemetian:
Nigeria does not earn enough to NOT borrow.

Hardly any country does. Except a handful of tiny gulf states like UAE and Kuwait.

Even the USA owes over $38 TRILLION.

Dem done come

Borrowing is normal when you borrow to invest in projects that generate revenue to repay the loan, not borrowing for white elephant project or simply borrowing to steal

Jamie248:
Dem done come

Borrowing is normal when you borrow to invest in projects that generate revenue to repay the loan, not borrowing for white elephant project or simply borrowing to steal

What white elephant projects or massive looting have you seen?

Or you just type because you have a screen?

Kemetian:
What white elephant projects or massive looting have you seen?

Or you just type because you have a screen?

See a shrink dude

Brendaniel:
But in Tinubu's case the debts are piling up, so what is the justification?

I am not in support of piling up sovereign debts. A government should balance it's books and have excess to invest in a swf. However if there is a project that needs urgent funding then debts can be understandable. I think revenue this year will be in excess of the budget. Therefore the government should be able to offset some of the debt if not all. What should be commended is that oil revenue is being relegated to the background

Kemetian:
Nigeria does not earn enough to NOT borrow.

Hardly any country does. Except a handful of tiny gulf states like UAE and Kuwait.

Even the USA owes over $38 TRILLION.

Nigeria's current debt is $90 billion.

Yet we are almost the same population as USA. They have 320 million people. We have 250 million.

We are massively under-borrowed.

We need to borrow MORE, NOT LESS.

Given our size, out debt level is criminally low.

We should be owing at least $5 TRILLION by now.

And the whole country would be looking like heaven!!

Industries everywhere generating money.

How the USA is repaying their own is how we will repay ours.

If I was the president, I would BORROW ALL BORROWABLES AND BUILD THE COUNTRY.

$TRILLIONS.

When we are a superpower in 10 years' time and the creditors come knocking, we will sit down and share drink with them and talk.

A country can and should balance it's books. That is how it used to be in the past. If an individual should not be steeped in debt why should a country?. What the USA and others are doing is not the right thing

Kemetian:
I keep telling people to give Tinubu a chance.

Tinubu is intelligent. Leave him to fix this land.

I agree that he is intelligent. What he has accomplished should be celebrated by all Nigerians

lawani:
I am not in support of piling up sovereign debts. A government should balance it's books and have excess to invest in a swf. However if there is a project that needs urgent funding then debts can be understandable. I think revenue this year will be in excess of the budget. Therefore the government should be able to offset some of the debt if not all. What should be commended is that oil revenue is being relegated to the background

When Tinubu did not even meet up with last year's revenue target still short of over 10 trillion, he is still running 2024 and 2025 budgets in 2026, still taking loans, piling up debts both local and foreign, you seems not not to understand anything about governance or you people simply choose to act like you don't understand...

Because there's no oil revenue accounted for.

Tinubu and his goons have stolen everything.

What's the debt profile of NNPC again?

Kemetian:
I keep telling people to give Tinubu a chance.

Tinubu is intelligent. Leave him to fix this land.

What are you talking about? Is tinubu not currently at the helm of affairs? What chance again are you talking about?

Brendaniel:
When Tinubu did not even meet up with last year's revenue target still short of over 10 trillion, he is still running 2024 and 2025 budgets in 2026, still taking loans, piling up debts both local and foreign, you seems not not to understand anything about governance or you people simply choose to act like you don't understand...

The budget was based on 75 dollars per barrel and 2 million bpd but price went to 60 and production at maybe 1.5 mbpd so there was a revenue shortfall. Previous governments would have devalued the naira massively but he resorted to non oil revenue. This year now benchmark is 60 dollars per barrel and total expected revenue from oil will be around 30 trillion naira but the budget is 58 trillion naira. This is the first budget in years that is not overly dependent on oil and it is based on last year revenue without the tax law. With the tax law I believe revenue will be close to 70 trillion naira with oil revenue inside it only 30 trillion. That is a move forward. Quarter one last year, oil revenue was only 25 percent of total. No presidency has ever managed to do that

lawani:
Nigeria is free from oil dependence

I read earlier from a lady in government that oil revenue is now less than half of government revenue in Nigeria and I wrote it like that during a debate with someone online only for someone to oppose me then for me to find out via AI that as at first quarter 2025 that oil revenue was less than 25 percent of total federal government revenue in Nigeria. Nigeria is officially no longer majorly dependent on Niger delta oil but on incomes from avenues like VAT, CIT, customs and etc. This is a good news that should be celebrated by all Nigerians.
It explains why most states now have big budgets
The country is a country of over 200 million and it can be like western Europe if it is organized like western Europe. There is nothing they do in Europe than everybody pay tax to make life easier for everybody.
It is like what President Bola Tinubu did in Lagos he has successfully done it at Abuja.
The feat was achieved without any special law. I project that with the new law, oil and gas revenue will become less than ten percent of federal government revenue by December 2026 and maybe less than one percent in two years

Yap, and AI told him

Meanwhile,

The Federal Government is projecting about N60.97tn in oil revenue for the 2026 fiscal year, lower than the earnings anticipated in the 2025 budget, reflecting more conservative assumptions on crude oil prices and production.

The projection is based on an analysis and the calculation of data contained in the 2026 Appropriation Bill presented to a joint session of the National Assembly in Abuja by President Bola Tinubu on Friday.

According to the President, the 2026 revenue estimate is anchored on a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar

SAUCE

If we were less dependent on oyel...why do we still have a benchmark crude oil price then for revenue?

Yep, something's up.

Because of low oil prices, really lower than we need, which is not the same thing as the 'benchmark' , the budget is going to be financed a lot by borrowing. The tax revenues may rise due to the new reforms...but that is yet to be seen.

lawani:
The budget was based on 75 dollars per barrel and 2 million bpd but price went to 60 and production at maybe 1.5 mbpd so there was a revenue shortfall. Previous governments would have devalued the naira massively but he resorted to non oil revenue. This year now benchmark is 60 dollars per barrel and total expected revenue from oil will be around 30 trillion naira but the budget is 58 trillion naira. This is the first budget in years that is not overly dependent on oil and it is based on last year revenue without the tax law. With the tax law I believe revenue will be close to 70 trillion naira with oil revenue inside it only 30 trillion. That is a move forward. Quarter one last year, oil revenue was only 25 percent of total. No presidency has ever managed to do that

It is either you people don't know how an economy works or you people simply just want to act like you don't know, Did Buhari not face the same challenge of oil production even worse than Tinubu?

Yet Tinubu has not achieved more than Buhari even with subsidy removal, he is even borrowing more than Buhari who paid subsidy....


Why do you people hate facing reality?

nairalanda1:
Yap, and AI told him

Meanwhile,



SAUCE

If we were less dependent on oyel...why do we still have a benchmark crude oil price then for revenue?

Yep, something's up.

Because of low oil prices, really lower than we need, which is not the same thing as the 'benchmark' , the budget is going to be financed a lot by borrowing. The tax revenues may rise due to the new reforms...but that is yet to be seen.

The total expected revenue before sharing at 60/40 and before expenses is 40 billion dollars. That is about sixty trillion naira. What the government will end up with is around thirty trillion naira if production rate and prices remain the same. The 58 trillion naira budget is therefore not as dependent on oil as previous budgets. You can fund around half of the budget without oil money. It has taken into consideration non oil revenue gotten last year. I project that oil revenue will not account for more than thirty percent of 2026 revenue.
In short for 2026 oil money is going to be around 22 billion dollars while budget is 38 billion dollars. I project that total revenue will be over 50 billion dollars