₦airaland Forum

In 2011, Buhari polled about 12 million votes against Goodluck Jonathan.

When Tinubu joined forces with him in 2015 and 2019, he polled 15 million votes in each election. This suggests that Tinubu’s contribution was around 2 to 3 million votes, which is consistent with his own performance in the SW over the years.

Fast forward to 2023:

Tinubu won about 2.2 million votes in the SW. This number is consistent again.

Nationwide, he won about 8.7 million votes. The rest 6.5 million votes likely came from Buhari.

Here’s the important point:

Buhari had a core base of about 12 million.
Only about half of that bloc voted for Tinubu in 2023.
So 6 million Buhari supporters did not vote for Tinubu, even when he had Buhari’s backing.

If Buhari couldn’t convince them to vote for Tinubu when he was still in power, with key governors backing Tinubu, what makes anyone think Tinubu can convince them now?

Meanwhile:

Inflation and hardship are worse than ever. What people see is extreme poverty, insecurity, a President that doesn't even stay in the country, and doesn't respond to anything.

That’s why a united opposition with a single credible message of change, especially Atiku and Obi working together, can (and will) win.

Most Nigerians are tired of Tinubu's government. That's the truth.

nfpmod seun

givedemwotowoto:
Watch the voter numbers very closely:

ChirstFireAltar:
When you wake up from your nightmares, you will get back to reality.

Tinubu till 2031 can't be stop by those your sponsors.

Bookmark 🔖 and come back to it after the election to console yourself.

ChirstFireAltar:
When you wake up from your nightmares, you will get back to reality.

Tinubu till 2031 can't be stop by those your sponsors.

Bookmark 🔖 and come back to it after the election to console yourself.

kestolove95:
Tinubu till d world end

givedemwotowoto:
What Nigerians need now is a united opposition, and I believe Peter Obi leading that opposition (with support from Atiku, Tambuwal, Kwankwaso, El Rufai and others) will defeat the political structure of APC based on propaganda and so substance.

DoTheNeedful:
I doubt the understanding of some of you about Nigeria's political terrain.

Head-to-head, Obi can never defeat BAT in 2027, as long as Zamfara, Kano, Sokoto, Katsina, Gombe, Bauchi, Borno, Kebbi, and so on, are part of Nigeria. There is no way citizens of those states would look away from a Muslim-Muslim ticket to vote for Obi. Lame as it might appear, it is the reality. Mind you, BAT would perform better in the South in 2027 than he did in 2023.

The only presidential candidate that can break BAT in the North is a Northern Muslim. Therefore, if your obsession is kicking out Tinubu, the most realistic formula is Atiku-Obi or any other Northern Muslim presidential candidate running with Obi. The problem with that formula would be Obidients, who strongly believe Obi should be president. Many hard-core Obidients would kick against Obi being a VP candidate, and they may refuse to vote in the general election.

givedemwotowoto:
Agbadorian don drop quote. What state in the core NW or NE have you lived in?

givedemwotowoto:
Watch the voter numbers very closely:

givedemwotowoto:
Watch the voter numbers very closely:

Good question. It depends how you define “popular.” Here’s how Bola Tinubu (according to Independent National Electoral Commission — INEC) fares by objective results — and why many analysts argue that doesn’t necessarily mean “popular.”

✅ What the INEC results show

In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu was declared winner with ≈ 8.79 million votes.

That was 36.6 % of valid votes cast.

He also met the constitutional requirement of obtaining 25% in at least two-thirds of the states — making his victory legally valid under Nigeria’s rules.


So by the letter of the law and the official results, yes — he won and became president.

⚠️ Why “winning” doesn’t necessarily equal “popular support”

His 36.6% vote share is the lowest for a winning presidential candidate since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999.

That means a majority of voters (≈ 63 %) voted for other candidates — so more Nigerians preferred someone else.

Some analysts say that because only a relatively small proportion of eligible voters actually cast ballots — and only about a third of those voted for him — the mandate could be considered weak.

Also: the election was widely described as contested, with reports of irregularities, voter-intimidation, and lack of transparency (e.g. delays in uploading polling unit results).


🧮 What “popularity” might really mean

Whether Tinubu is “popular” overall depends on what benchmark you use:

If “popular” = “legally elected as per rules,” yes.

If “popular” = “enjoys broad support among Nigerians,” the data suggests that’s not clearly the case — more people voted against him than for him, and his vote share was historically low.

Also, regional, ethnic, religious, and socio-economic divides matter: vote patterns show that support was not uniform nationwide, which complicates claims of a unified “popular” mandate.



---

Bottom line: According to INEC, Tinubu is the duly elected president. But by the measure of strong popular endorsement — broad, majority-wide support — the 2023 results don’t provide compelling evidence that he’s very popular.

If you like — I can check recent polls or approval-rating data (2024–2025) to see how public perception has changed since the election. Want me to fetch that now?

givedemwotowoto:
Agbadorian don drop quote. What state in the core NW or NE have you lived in?

givedemwotowoto:
What Nigerians need now is a united opposition, and I believe Peter Obi leading that opposition (with support from Atiku, Tambuwal, Kwankwaso, El Rufai and others) will defeat the political structure of APC based on propaganda and so substance.

DoTheNeedful:
I doubt the understanding of some of you about Nigeria's political terrain.

Head-to-head, Obi can never defeat BAT in 2027, as long as Zamfara, Kano, Sokoto, Katsina, Gombe, Bauchi, Borno, Kebbi, and so on, are part of Nigeria. There is no way citizens of those states would look away from a Muslim-Muslim ticket to vote for Obi. Lame as it might appear, it is the reality. Mind you, BAT will perform better in the South in 2027 than he did in 2023.

The only presidential candidate that can break BAT in the North is a Northern Muslim. Therefore, if your obsession is kicking out Tinubu, the most realistic formula is Atiku-Obi or any other Northern Muslim presidential candidate running with Obi. The problem with that formula would be Obidients, who strongly believe Obi should be president. Many hard-core Obidients would kick against Obi being a VP candidate, and they may refuse to vote in the general election.

Cmeo:
Although everyone is not pleased with Tinubu Presidency, the truth of the matter is that he will win again in 2027.

OredoPikin2:
They all have seen that the Muslim Muslim tickets was just a deception.
Obi/Elrufai ticket or Obi/kwankwaso will defeat Tinubu squarely rigging or no rigging

OredoPikin2:
How?

Predictor3:
Someone gave you his informed opinion without insult and the best you could do is call him names? This is one of the reasons Obi will not be taken seriously. His followers are too toxic.

DoTheNeedful:
The average illiterate Northerner with his transistor radio is far more politically aware that most of you. It was the reason they formed alliance with Zik, made him president, only for him to realize that he didn't have any executive power. The executive power resided with Tafawa Balewa, the prime minister.

The average Northerner knows more than most of your Ph.D. holders in the South that the VP position is constitutionally empty, and it is only useful if the president die in office. So, you can't cajole them with some Obi/Elrufai, Obi/Kwankwaso ticket. Rather, you could get them with Atiku/Obi ticket.

Some of you have a limited understanding of the political and electoral history of Nigeria. I am beginning to think I am arguing politics with some twenty-something-year-olds here.

givedemwotowoto:
His first line was disrespectful and that was exactly the reason I gave it back to him. You people are so toxic that you don’t even recognize toxicity anymore. Even he himself didn’t know his first line was disrespectful. Be guided.

I’m sure you don’t even know that calling someone toxic is disrespectful. You can make your comment without calling names, else you’ll get it back.

Agbadorians are incredible! Chief toxicity already playing victim.

DoTheNeedful:
My brother, we don't need to call ourselves names. Let us analyze objectively.

I don't see how Obi will win the 19 Northern states ahead of Tinubu. I am not saying this as a BAT supporter. It is what it is.

Tribalism and Religion, even more than economic indices, factor significantly in how Nigerians vote. It has been like that before independence and it is still very present. It is the same reason Obi got 90% votes in the SE, Tinubu won the SW, and Atiku won the North despite the fact that Buhari (a Northerner) was just completing his eight years. That pattern is not peculiar to Nigeria, it is like that even in advanced democracies of the world.

Obi deputizing Atiku is the best chance for dislodging Tinubu in 2027, and Obidients must be ready to support the ticket like they supported him in 2023. Afterall, it is not bad to deputize an 81-year-old president . There is little guarantee that Atiku would complete his presidency, if elected. So, Obi could still become president the Jonathan way. I feel bad typing this, but it is what it is.

Cmeo:
In exact way politics are played and won in Nigeria, Africa and global space.

OredoPikin2:
i thought we are practicing democracy where the people get to decide who rule them.

i hope you guys learn from history how tyrants like Tinubu usually end

Cmeo:
That's was what everyone believed until Donald Trump came out to tell us how he was rigged out in 2021 US Presidential election.