₦airaland Forum

Welcome, Guest: RegisterLoginWith GoogleTrendingRecentNew

Stats: 3,326,957 members, 8,428,813 topics. Date: Thursday, 18 June 2026 at 02:15 AM

Toggle theme

2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results - Politics (2) - Nairaland

Nairaland ForumNairaland GeneralPolitics2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results (12220 Views)

1 2 3 4 5 6 Reply (Go Down)

Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Orlandoo(m): 4:48pm On Jan 18
omenka:
The post isn't meant for people like you. It's beyond you.
Yeah, it isn't for people like me because I'm not a blind praise singer who sells his soul for a pot of porridge. It is meant for yes men like you.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by MrSly(m): 4:49pm On Jan 18
omenka:
For those with the some good education, more importantly a first degree, and intelligent enough to understand data analysis, please take some minutes to read this.

It is quite lengthy but interesting and replete with hard truths. It should enrich the discussion here and provide important clarity to some otherwise fuzzy understanding about the last election.

Let's go...
From the moment I saw the title I knew the APC miscreants are at it again. US effect. SouthEast was rigged for PO you said. Why not study the live video taken by people during the election? Paid jobber. Enjoy your pay.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by MrSly(m): 4:51pm On Jan 18
seunmsg:
[b]Anambra State showed an anomaly rate of 24.9%. Nearly one in four polling units displayed multiple fraud indicators. Enugu came in at 16.7%. Imo at 10.9%. These aren’t rounding errors or statistical noise. These are neon signs visible from space.

For comparison, Lagos, despite being the political home of the winning candidate, showed an anomaly rate of just 2.3%. Oyo recorded 0.3%.

The pattern contradicts the simple narrative that “the ruling party rigged it everywhere.” The data suggests something more complex and frankly more worrying: electoral manipulation is geographically concentrated, crosses party lines, and seems to follow opportunity rather than ideology.

Another thing to note is that this only covers analysis for uploaded result sheets. The actual numbers that were announced by INEC, in some cases, are at significant variance, indicating additional manipulation. The biggest example is Rivers State, which the Labour Party won, but was called for the APC in the final tally.

Here’s the twist that should make everyone uncomfortable: the Labour Party, not the ruling APC, showed the highest concentration of irregularities in its strongholds. LP had 2,328 instances of what I call “perfect scores” (results clustering at suspiciously round percentages like 50.00% or 75.00%). Despite winning only 29.1% of votes nationally, LP accounted for more than its share of statistical red flags.

This finding complicates the popular narrative. It suggests that electoral fraud in Nigeria 2023 wasn’t a one-sided affair orchestrated from Aso Rock. Multiple actors engaged in manipulation where they could. The southeastern concentration suggests that the very regions crying loudest about being cheated may themselves have been sites of significant irregularities.[/b]
As expected, you have carried it like gala on your head just as Una do plan before the dishing out the Lagos Ibadan statistics.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Penguin2: 4:54pm On Jan 18
Jargons
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Tenses: 4:58pm On Jan 18
monkautos:
Baba don collect money. Most people know how to manipulate maths to suit their narrative.
When the author asked we choose ten numbers from 0 to 9. He went ahead to state that most people will avoid 0 and 5. I didn't avoid any of them.

Waste of a read honestly.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by razzydoo(m): 5:03pm On Jan 18
Well-done.
As a scientist, you made a lot of analytical sense.
Even on Crude (naked-eyed) observation, opportunistic rigging was detected especially that of SE as you accurately posited.
Hopefully, we keep improving.
Thanks.👍
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Donpeak(f): 5:10pm On Jan 18
omenka:
For those with the some good education, more importantly a first degree, and intelligent enough to understand data analysis, please take some minutes to read this.

It is quite lengthy but interesting and replete with hard truths. It should enrich the discussion here and provide important clarity to some otherwise fuzzy understanding about the last election.

Let's go...
hogwash
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by RemoteNaija: 5:12pm On Jan 18
This is easily one of the most refreshing reads I've seen on this forum. Moving away from emotional insults to actual statistical forensics and Benford's Law is exactly how we should be auditing our elections.

The analysis clearly shows that as long as the 'human element' remains the final bridge between the polling unit and the server, algorithms will always flag anomalies. The reliance on manual intervention at the collation level is where the digital chain breaks.

We are in the age of AI and Data; it is a shame that our electoral integrity still relies on someone writing figures on a piece of paper. We need a total system overhaul before 2027, or we will just repeat this same cycle. Kudos to the writer for this depth.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by lightwind(m): 5:14pm On Jan 18
PulaPower:
Jagaban the lion !

He won fair & fair..

Securing 25% in 29 states is no joke..
Trump and Americans will never allow another rigging to take place in Nigeria in 2027.

Na there rat trap go hook una😊

$
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by lightwind(m): 5:15pm On Jan 18
PDPdestroyer:
The election losers tried playing a fast one on everyone.
You know what little children do in those days, accusing other kids of stealing just to divert attention from themselves who actually are the real thieves.
Trump and Americans will never allow another rigging to take place in Nigeria in 2027.

Na there rat trap go hook una😊

$
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by lightwind(m): 5:16pm On Jan 18
PigTormentor:
The worst election rigging took place in the SE.
All studies have shown that the worst election rigging took place in places where Obi was declared winner mainly in the SE.
Trump and Americans will never allow another rigging to take place in Nigeria in 2027.

Na there rat trap go hook una😊

As you no kukuma live in Nigeria with us.
$
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by TheStoriesOfMan: 5:17pm On Jan 18
As soon as I saw it was omenka, I didn't go further reading it.

You are using crooked scientific means to judge crooked actions.

You fed it through machine learning? Which model did you use? What was your bias?

Nothing. All hogwash just to deceive the uneducated.

You think you can deceive me? Only one thesis abi
dissertation, you are quoting lies. Do you know how many topics on machine/neural learning I have co-authored?

I'll get your details and submit it to the Research Council for using manipulated data to conclude a bias analysis, because of your political affiliation.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Nwaikpe: 5:20pm On Jan 18
"statistical forensics tests..."

Whatever that means.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by logicalhumour: 5:21pm On Jan 18
What tf did I just read? Did you just base the entire indication of fraud on some meme "last digit" and you call it "intelligent"? Lol
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by JimD(m): 5:22pm On Jan 18
Once in a while, you get to read something worthwhile on Nairaland. This is one. You're doing well!
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by anonimi: 5:23pm On Jan 18
omenka:
Isn't this what we've always said here.

They cry wolf the most, but they perpetrated the biggest fraud in the process.
Who else was favoured by this biggest fraud in the five SE states, apart from Tinubu, due to Obi’s political naivety?

The naivety that made him lose his attempt to be Obiano’s godfather. The same Obiano kicked him out of APGA, making him a homeless IDP politician before Atiku revived his career in 2019.


https://dailypost.ng/2017/10/19/peter-obi-demanded-n7-5bn-sponsoring-election


jameshankss:
Arguing that Obi’s presidential bid would only work in favour of Tinubu, Soludo said, “Indeed, if I were Asiwaju Tinubu, I would even give Peter Obi money as someone heading one of the departments of his campaign, because Obi is making Tinubu’s pathway to victory much easier by indirectly pulling down PDP.”

Obi, according to Soludo, would only deplete the votes of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and pave the path for an APC victory.

He stated, “The current fleeting frenzy, if not checked, will cost Ndigbo dearly for years. The South-east has the lowest number of votes of any region, but it is also the only region where the presidential race might be a four-way race (it is a two-way race in the other five regions) thereby, ensuring that our votes won’t count in the making of the next president of Nigeria.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/11/15/soludo-i-wont-succumb-to-bullies-obi-knows-he-cant-win/
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Fekumzi123: 5:23pm On Jan 18
PulaPower:
Jagaban the lion !

He won fair & fair..

Securing 25% in 29 states is no joke..
Except we just want to be mischievous, southeast votes shows the highest rigging.
I always know that everyone tries to rig election because I was once a presiding officer. Figures from south East are too bad, they voted along ethnicity.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Ofunaofu: 5:25pm On Jan 18
You are wrong in your assertion that the data you cited shows the Labour Party having the highest concentration of irregularities in its strongholds. This alone reveals that the so-called data was not meant to educate but rather to serve as an orchestrated campaign against Peter Obi, aimed at maligning his image, something that has been the core political strategy of the Tinubu administration.

You have to understand that many things happened several days before the actual election day. The APC was at the center of it all, being the incumbent party. The APC was the only party that employed thuggery, agberoism, voter intimidation, and electoral banditry, and that compromised INEC officials in order to perpetuate itself in power.

We heard the INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) of Lagos State claim that a particular ethnic group relocated to Lagos State to vote, a statement that sought to fuel ethnic bigotry and tribal hatred.

We also witnessed what happened in Lagos State when a known street urchin issued threats and engaged in killings, maiming, and destruction of property against a particular ethnic group because of their democratic choice. This occurred in full public view. Shockingly, the police even defended it by claiming that the street urchin was merely cracking jokes.

This did not happen anywhere else except in the stronghold of the ruling party’s candidate.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Eniolohunda: 5:27pm On Jan 18
I trust they will attack the writer. The people that don't base their arguments on evidence but only on emotions and propaganda. Before you attack me too, let me make myself clear, I don't even support any of these our old politicians neither did I vote. But I don't argue when I see evidence.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by PHIPEX(m): 5:32pm On Jan 18
A paid analyst

The moment I saw "Anambra result shows the ruling party didn't rig everywhere", I stopped reading.

He's trying to play smart yet fell flat but focusing on the south East first in his supposed analysis. He couldn't beat his own bias.

According to him Anambra was rigged but Lagos nd Oyo were not, a baby propagandist
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by kenneth888: 5:32pm On Jan 18
it seems the image laundering has began,,,the $9m money is speaking ,,,, that is the starting point....we are watching ,,,, But for the record, he never the last election
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by callthefred: 5:38pm On Jan 18
DoctorAyukebot:
So cos it didn't favour your camp it's a paid write up. That's the ill we face asq continent where people have no regards for facts. ..
Even the "Alternative collation process" carried out by known Obidients during the result announcement shows APC won..funny thing is the result took about 3 days to be announced and APC had maintained that lead from day 1 but bitter Obidients kept lying results were announced at midnight.

I didn't support Tinubu but might do so in 2027. At least the fact that he has dropped the bloodsucker El Rufai baggage is enough for me. You also can't call him a religious bigot. Maybe tribal bigot like Obi too anyways. I do feel sorry for the SE though, packaging their brother as a messiah instead of negotiating with other Southerners.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Guestmale: 5:38pm On Jan 18
I know some people whose this analysis didn't fit in perfect with their theory will not accept it, even if the irev failed what of the hard copies from the polling units agents but anyway 2023 election has become an history.The constitution allowed anyone or any party not satisfied with the results to approach court of law to get redress but unfortunately they couldn't prove any rigging or malpractice but instead are arguing about 25 percent Abuja votes, certificate and unproven drug case.

I now see the reason why they couldn't raise rigging or malpractice allegations in the court, they're are part of the if not even the highest culprits.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Irony1:
omenka:
For those with the some good education, more importantly a first degree, and intelligent enough to understand data analysis, please take some minutes to read this.

It is quite lengthy but interesting and replete with hard truths. It should enrich the discussion here and provide important clarity to some otherwise fuzzy understanding about the last election.

Let's go...
Omenka cool down you have always been an igbo hater. Even your analysis doesn't point a conclusive finger at which party rigged in the south east. You only stated that there was an anomaly with the results. Which shows clearly gaps and a clear bias in your analysis just to demonize PO.

You cannot hoodwink people with this obvious lie. Look for another format that can stick.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Faith0(f): 5:43pm On Jan 18
I no hear you come again

Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by tesseract: 5:43pm On Jan 18
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣...I can bet my left butt that this punk didn't do any shit analysis. This is an APC clown trying to justify the results of the last elections despite the gross manipulations, alterations and cancelations on electoral results.
After spilling all the jargons, you goofed heavily after you indicted the south east, justified rigging by the ruling party by saying all regions rigged the election, you also blamed opposition for splitting votes and some other trash talk. Something the APC paid goons have always sang with. Trying to add a scientific undertone to further give your useless analysis some credibility is DOA.
Conclusion; you are a paid clown😂😂😂. Gerarahia mhen
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Irony1:
omenka:
Isn't this what we've always said here. They cry wolf the most, but they perpetrated the biggest fraud in the process.
Anomaly so which of the party results did you observe the anomaly in the south east? Stop playing smart here Oga. You have to show the raw data across party results. Otherwise this is just fake research and propaganda. You cannot deceive people Oga.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Irony1: 5:45pm On Jan 18
tesseract:
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣...I can bet my left butt that this punk didn't do any shit analysis. This is an APC clown trying to justify the results of the last elections despite the gross manipulations, alterations and cancelations on electoral results.
After spilling all the jargons, you goofed heavily after you indicted the south east, justified rigging by the ruling party by saying all regions rigged the election, you also blamed opposition for splitting votes and some other trash talk. Something the APC paid goons have always sang with. Trying to add a scientific undertone to further give your useless analysis some credibility is DOA.
Conclusion; you are a paid clown😂😂😂. Gerarahia mhen
When you read his so called research it is so easy to spot the lie there. How can you say there was a 24% anomaly in the results in south east where there is statistical distribution of the anomaly across parties that voted in the south east.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by Irony1:
Guestmale:
I know some people whose this analysis didn't fit in perfect with their theory will not accept it, even if the irev failed what of the hard copies from the polling units agents but anyway 2023 election has become an history.The constitution allowed anyone or any party not satisfied with the results to approach court of law to get redress but unfortunately they couldn't prove any rigging or malpractice but instead are arguing about 25 percent Abuja votes, certificate and unproven drug case.

I now see the reason why they couldn't raise rigging or malpractice allegations in the court, they're are part of the if not even the highest culprits.
Hold on bros let us look at this statement there a 24% anomaly with votes in the south east. So let us do a deepdive where is the statistical distribution of the anomalous behavior among the parties that voted in the south east. You cannot base your conclusion on that statement because he hasn't proven that claim based on pure statistical evidence. If truly he presented this as a thesis he would fail woefully because there are still open ended questions he has failed to addess in his research.
Re: 2023 Presidential Election: A Must Read Scientific Thesis On The Results by SisterAnn(f): 5:51pm On Jan 18
omenka:
For those with the some good education, more importantly a first degree, and intelligent enough to understand data analysis, please take some minutes to read this.

It is quite lengthy but interesting and replete with hard truths. It should enrich the discussion here and provide important clarity to some otherwise fuzzy understanding about the last election.

Let's go...
"I started this research half-expecting to find evidence of massive, coordinated fraud orchestrated by the ruling party. I found something more complex and, in some ways, more troubling: a pattern of distributed manipulation across multiple parties, concentrated in specific regions, sophisticated in execution, and difficult to detect without computational tools."



But you had only ink for analysing and presenting what you think went down in SE and found no need to also show graphics of what went down in APC and PDP strongholds. 😂😂

Pay me I write for you data boys on the prowl!!
1 2 3 4 5 6 Reply

2023 Presidential Election:A Sincere Advice To The SoutheastFinally, A Poll In Favour Of Tinubu, The Results Are Shocking!Keyamo: Buhari Won’t Make 2023 Election A Do-Or-Die Affair Like Obasanjo234

Oritsejafor Donates Cars, Tricycles To The Less PriviledgedFEMI FANI-KAYODE - Buhari, His Two-headed Dragon And His ‘war’ Against Terror2019 Presidential Election: Buhari Is Fighting Dirty