₦airaland Forum

TonyeBarcanista:
2027: Obidients and The Illusion of Dominance



'Tonye Barcanista

43Ronin:
Tonye, your PDP is dead and buried! ADC ticket must go to Peter Obi or we know that the fulani cabal has you and atiku under payroll. Its the turn of the south, and right now there's global condemnation against fulani. Atiku should read the frigging room and do the needful as a patriot.

TonyeBarcanista:
2027: Obidients and The Illusion of Dominance

What is the driver behind the Obidient illusion?

'Tonye Barcanista

Hedonisco:
This is kindergarten analysis. If you understand the demography of Peter Obi's support base, you wouldn't engage in such puerile postulation.

If Peter Obi is not on the ballot, then obidients are not interested. His political currency is not transferable.

Burob:
Well then sorry, since Obidient is not a registered political party, that is why I have always said that Gringory Obi is wasting his time, because under Nigeria’s law, only through a political party, can an individual occupy Aso Rock.

AMINDA:
The North gave Tinubu over 65% of his votes in 2023 with 5.6m votes. The North also gave Atiku close to 7m votes while giving Kwankwaso 1.5m votes. Obi also got over half of his votes from the Northcentral/middlebelt. Obi got over 90% of the votes in the SS and SE, yet it wasn't enough to see him through, whereas, Tinubu securing only 60% of Northern votes was all he needed, even though he was largely rejected in the South. No one region can make one president without a handshake across the Niger but it is undeniable that numbers don't lie. Noise must not be mistaken for numbers or strength. Oftentimes, the silence of Northerners online is borne out of the confidence that they have in their sheer numbers. The numbers are real, it's not A.I.

Lanruze:
There is no illusion anywhere !

It's as real as you can see it, Peter Obi south of Nigeria as at this milli-second, second, minute and hour is far more popular and generally perceived as more moral than PBAT.

lionshare:
Now in furtherance; you see why the APC(BAT) had to take over the entire NC & SS---there no way PO can repeat 2023 numbers its mathematically impossible.

ElevationD:
I think PDP’s loss of Peter Obi troubles you sir.

May I remind you that the first time you all declared Obi as irrelevant was the Osun state governorship election? If you take your mind back, you’ll clearly remember that LP’s result was nothing to write home about. You all wrote Obi off on the basis of that first test.

Do you remember that you all labeled him as a man without structure? Do you remember that Obi called the people his structure and not the buildings that you people believe in? Thankfully you recognized his performance at the Presidential election in 2023.

I wonder how you judged just Obi by the performance of other LP candidates. Do you want to be reminded that just as his fellow party members were defeated at the polls, APC and PDP candidates lost in many areas also, inspite of the fact the leaderships of Tinubu and Atiku?

Do you want to be reminded that there were too many contestants in 2023, who won on the basis of Obi’s name?

By the way, how did you come to the wrong conclusion that Obi’s popularity has faded? Is there nothing like election campaign schedule? Looking at his campaign for ADC’s candidates a couple of days ago, is that not enough evidence to prove that Obi’s popularity increases daily? By the way, why has APC singled him out as their major challenger? What happened to Atiku and Kwakwanso?

“Every serious contender in elections do influence performance…”. So how do you describe those ones who won just decades of Obi’s name?

Your write up is too unintelligent please.

AMINDA:
Exactly. Tinubu is trying to make up for lost Northern votes in the SS and NC while Atiku has gained those Northern votes potentially lost by Tinubu to add to his 2023 tally. The only candidate that hasn't realistically gained new in-roads is Peter Obi but he's doing the right thing by aligning with the ADC. So-called Obidients chanting Obi or nothing are only sabotaging his campaign. Most of them are closet Agbadorians anyway. To be fair to him, Obi has come out to denounce them. Atiku needs Obi to get the required constitutional spread, but he has the numbers already. None of them can win without the other, but it's a good thing that they are currently in the same party. What Obi stands to gain? A chance to endear himself to the North and get the same level of support Northerners gave to Tinubu after supporting Buhari against Jonathan. Northerners ALWAYS pay their debts in multiple folds, whether good or bad.

Lzkdy:
You are wrong. Rigging election in Nigeria does not matter if forces are combined since the INEC chairman and the Judiciary are corrupt and biased.

TonyeBarcanista:
2027: Obidients and The Illusion of Dominance



'Tonye Barcanista

Lzkdy:
If only that can allow for an independent candidate, and a fair election, Obi wins.

Unfortunately, INEC and Judiciary are in the pocket of Bulaba.

Na mumu still dey vote

Jonjam269:
A serial party hopper who achieved nothing particularly remarkable during eight years in a relatively small state like Anambra suddenly reinvented himself overnight as a messianic figure. Such a character is bound to fail woefully in a complex and deeply diverse country like Nigeria.

There is no coherent economic blueprint, only empty buzzwords, publicity stunts like serving food in public, recycled or questionable statistics, headline-chasing, and constant pandering to the gallery.

Peter Obi is largely a product of social media fabrication and hype. There is nothing exceptional about his record, either intellectually and in terms of measurable performance. What we are witnessing is a group of disgruntled elements desperately trying to repackage failure as a reformer, and a serial party hopper as an ideological politician. This political adventure is destined to end in heartbreak and premium tears

Cj4charles:
Bring out the current president and bring him out in a straight up election without rigging and watch the president lose even his own house before 10:30 am

TonyeBarcanista:
You just displayed your understanding!

Every serious contender in politics do influence performance in elections where they are not candidates. Their candidates may win or not win, but the performance is never terrible.

Think of Trump (GOP), Obama (Dems), Bubari (ANPP/CPC/APC), Asiwaju (AD, AC, ACN, APC), Wike (PDP/APC) etc. This is common politics

aswani:
Per the bolded, I think he also benefited last time out from the facade of him not being part of the political class and a genuine acceptance by people for an (overdue) Igbo president. Thankfully for the latter, Professor Soludo and Bianca Ojukwu are looking like they will be able to correct that "anomaly" and unlike Peter Obi, I am confidently backing them to do so in a competent manner.

His Obidients unruly social media behaviour means he (thankfully) peaked in 2023 as you are right, oga really has nothing to offer.

Of more concern, but not surprisingly, is his occasional jumping head and feet into sensitive tribal related waters, and example of which was the Lagos trade fair complex debacle.

We definitely dodged a bullet in Nigeria.

TonyeBarcanista:
2027: Obidients and The Illusion of Dominance



'Tonye Barcanista

SonOfDSoil01:
what is his demography aside from his 5plot of land which the massive rigging which happened in the last election which will not be guaranteed in 2027? Or you still think he as the same acceptance he had in other region of the country after many water have passed under the bridge especially with his uncouth and uncultured ipobidient supporters who have succeeded in making more enemies for him? This is what the writer is saying and the earlier you clowns wake up from your delusion that bitter obi as lost a lot of his support base since the last election the better for your sanity and health

TonyeBarcanista:
2027: Obidients and The Illusion of Dominance


Each time I read about Obidients issuing threats of Peter Obi or nothing, I wonder whether they truly believe their principal enjoys widespread political popularity, even within what they describe as their stronghold.

During the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi was clearly underrated, as he went on to poll an impressive 6.1 million votes nationwide. However, since that election, his political standing appears to have become overrated, as subsequent electoral outings have produced a series of disappointing outcomes.

In the Anambra State House of Assembly election, candidates of his party performed poorly, winning only 7 seats out of 30. This was an early indication that the momentum from the presidential election had faded.

Later in November of the same year, his party’s candidate in the Imo State governorship election, Athan Achonu, polled only 64,081 votes, representing about 9 percent of the total votes cast, despite an intense campaign effort. The outcomes in Kogi and Bayelsa States were even more underwhelming.

In the Edo State governorship election of 2024, Olumide Akpata, widely presented as his political protégé, managed to secure just 22,763 votes, representing about 4 percent, despite Peter Obi’s heavy personal involvement in the campaign.

This trend continued during the August 16, 2025 by election in Anambra State. In the Anambra South senatorial contest, Obi's candidate, Mr Donald Amangbo, who contested on the platform of the ADC, polled a paltry 2,889 votes. He finished far behind the APGA candidate, who scored 90,408 votes, and the APC candidate, who secured 19,847 votes. Similarly, his candidate for the Onitsha North Constituency 1 by-election in the Anambra State House of Assembly, Justina Azuka, who ran as ADC flagbearer, could only get 1,909 votes, while the APGA candidate, Barrister Ifeoma Azikiwe polled a whopping 7,774 votes.

During the 2025 Anambra State governorship election, Peter Obi took the contest personally and campaigned vigorously for the Labour Party candidate. At the end of the election, his own polling unit was won by the APC candidate, Nicholas Unachukwu. His ward in Agulu, Ward 12, and his local government area, Anaocha, were both won by the APGA candidate and incumbent governor. Overall, the Labour Party candidate finished a distant fourth, polling only 10,576 votes, representing about 1.8 percent, behind APGA with 422,664 votes, APC with 99,445 votes, and YPP with 37,753 votes.

Considering this consistent trajectory of limited electoral acceptance, political misjudgment, lack of strategic depth, and a prolonged losing streak, combined with the well documented record of underperformance during his time in government in Anambra State, one must ask what real advantage his supporters believe they hold over any serious contender in the 2027 elections. What is the driver behind the Obidient illusion?

It will be interesting to observe their reaction after their party’s primary election, where any objective observer can already identify the two candidates, neither of these is Peter Obi, most likely to emerge victorious.

'Tonye Barcanista

43Ronin:
Tonye, your PDP is dead and buried! ADC ticket must go to Peter Obi or we know that the fulani cabal has you and atiku under payroll. Its the turn of the south, and right now there's global condemnation against fulani. Atiku should read the frigging room and do the needful as a patriot.

Amumaigwe:
You ought to have discovered that the strategy deployed by BATists to make Obi unpopular failed woefully. Lol