₦airaland Forum

bidexiii:
Uganda SF are now white dudes.
Youre sure this photo has being tampered with ?

jl115:
I agree, except I wouldn't say the rand has ever been overvalued in fact for the good part of 15 years its been one of the most undervalued currencies in the world.


We agree then, cos I have been consistent that our downward spiral started in 2009 when the ANC cursed us with Zuma. That aberration aside:
If one accepts that ours is an export economy, the Rand at anything stronger than R14 to $1 is overvalued. That figure is based not just on the technical evaluation of the value of our economy, but more important, on the value of the Rand vis-a-vis our EM competitors/peers (Pic 1 - I exclude China, S Korea, Taiwan, and India from the EM definition: SK & Taiwan cos they're developed; China & India cos sheer numbers give them outsized heft).
That's the basket of EM currencies dealers play with, and for better or worse, our Rand is the most tradable and therefore the whipping boy whenever something happens elsewhere in the "Emerging Markets".

We sell similar goods to the same markets as most of the countries on the EM list, and over-value of the Rand in this instance means a range where buying from RSA is more expensive.

And yes, I'm aware you farmers import R1million+ machinery and need a stronger Rand. Which is why we pitch the ideal range at R18-20 to the US$. Not too strong to make our exports expensive in relation to our competitors/peers; not too weak to make our main imports -oil & machinery - expensive and inflationary.
Additionally, we also do not want a Rand so strong that imports overtake exports! I started working when we still had exchange controls and people were more concerned about their overseas holidays/portfolios/imported goods, than local production/exports/domestic well-being.


I would also say there is definitely an improvement on all fronts of our economy, probably not as drastic as what we want but we are moving in the right direction.


Not on all fronts, but definitely an improvement on the indices that matter and drive the rest of the economy. And certainly not fast enough, across all sectors. An exercise we do for our clients: 1) where we were when we attained democracy in 1994;
2) the progress we made in the 15 years under Mbeki to 2009;
3) the regression to almost 1994 levels in the decade under Zuma; and
4) the Ramaphosa recovery from Zuma has been slower than Mbeki recovery from 94.

A bit of topic, can you explain to me how Groenewald has now become the new social media President?? ...

I do not place any store by social media when it comes to analysing politics. Were social media metrics any reliable, the EFF would have won the last 2 elections.

Lurker4Long:
...

jl115:
I think we’re actually talking past each other a bit, you’re describing export competitiveness, not currency valuation, and those aren’t the same thing.

Yes, South Africa competes with other EM exporters and yes, the Rand is used as a proxy and “whipping boy” in EM baskets. But that explains volatility, not fair value.

If the Rand were genuinely overvalued below R14/$, we would have seen:

sustained import dominance,consumption-led growth, and capital inflows chasing a “cheap imports” story.

Instead, since 2009 (and particularly under Jacob Zuma), what we actually saw was:

capital flight, collapsing investment, and a rising risk premium completely disconnected from productivity or terms of trade. That is risk discounting, not equilibrium pricing.

Being an “export economy” also doesn’t mean a weak currency is correct — it just means it’s helpful to exporters. Germany, Australia, Chile, Canada all export heavily without needing structurally weak currencies. If competitiveness requires R18–20/$, that’s not efficiency, it’s a subsidy via currency debasement.

On the EM-peer point: the fact that the Rand weakens more than peers in bad times and strengthens less than peers in good times is actually evidence of undervaluation, not overvaluation. Liquidity and tradability explain overshooting, not fair value.

And the R18–20 “ideal range” may feel balanced tactically, but strategically it locks SA into:

imported inflation, higher capex costs, weak industrialisation, and permanent commodity dependence.

That’s a low-growth equilibrium, not a healthy one.

So yes, we agree the post 2009 damage under the African National Congress crushed credibility. But the conclusion is the opposite of yours:

The Rand didn’t weaken because R14 was too strong, it weakened because South Africa became too risky.

That means for much of the last 15 years, the Rand has traded below its economic value, even if exporters have benefited from that weakness.

A weak Rand may be useful.
That doesn’t make it fairly valued

jteku:
How true is this news..

Nigeria Eyes Twelve Kawasaki KV-107 Helicopters From Saudi Arabia

📌 The Nigerian military is reportedly preparing for the arrival of 12 Kawasaki KV-107 helicopters from Saudi Arabia, a move that would provide a substantial boost to the nation’s heavy-lift and logistical capabilities.

📌 This development first surfaced through reports from Honourable Aliyu Ibrahim Gebi, the Special Adviser to the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) of the Armed Forces of Nigeria, in early January 2026.

📌 While Gebi did not issue an explicit confirmation of the transfer, his history of accurately predicting military acquisitions has prompted analysts to treat the report with weight.

📌 The specific branch of the Nigerian military that will operate the 12 KV-107 units remains a point of speculation.

GreenandGold:
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South African Navy returns Cape2Rio race winners to shore after yacht sinks


After winning the Cape2Rio 2025 yacht race, three South African sailors had to abandon their sinking vessel on its return to South Africa, prompting a rescue at sea.

Skipper Sibusiso Sizatu, first mate Tshepo Renaldo Mohale and Andrea Myburg were returning from Brazil to Cape Town when their vessel, the Angel Wings, encountered serious difficulties in the early hours of Monday 2 February while approximately 800 nautical miles southeast of Rio de Janeiro.

Sizatu reported that he was preparing to begin his watch when he noticed the mast collapsing. With limited fuel reserves of approximately 200 litres and worsening conditions, the crew determined that returning to Rio was not feasible. Shortly thereafter, the vessel began taking on water, the SA Navy said in a statement.

“I immediately contacted the Royal Cape Yacht Club Commodore, David Garrard, who alerted the Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre South Africa (MRCC),” said Sizatu.

Through satellite tracking systems, it was established that the nearest vessel to Angel Wings was the Marshall Islands-flagged merchant vessel Bryant, en route to Singapore. The vessel diverted from its course to respond to the distress call. The crew of Angel Wings were safely taken aboard Bryant.

Shortly after the rescue, the yacht sank. The decision to abandon the vessel was made in consultation with the Master of Bryant, taking into account the complete loss of spare equipment required to establish a jury rig and deteriorating weather conditions.

Following the rescue, the Royal Cape Yacht Club formally requested assistance from the South African Navy to transfer the three sailors from Bryant once the vessel reached South African waters. The South African Navy immediately activated arrangements for the Multi-Mission Inshore Patrol Vessel (MMIPV) SAS Adam Kok III to conduct the transfer operation, the Navy said.

SAS Adam Kok III rendezvoused with Bryant on Wednesday 11 February, approximately 63 nautical miles off Cape Point. The three sailors were safely transferred and arrived at Naval Base Simon’s Town on Thursday morning.

“The South African Navy commended the swift coordination between the Royal Cape Yacht Club, MRCC South Africa, and the crew of Bryant, whose decisive actions ensured the safe rescue of the sailors. Upon arrival in Simon’s Town, the crew expressed deep relief and gratitude, stating they are eager to reunite with their families after the ordeal,” the SA Navy said.

“The South African Navy remains committed to protecting the country’s maritime interest and safeguarding lives at sea by supporting maritime safety operations in partnership with national and international stakeholders,” it concluded.

Last month the Alexforbes Angel Wings youth team with sailors from the Cape Flats representing the Royal Cape Yacht Club Sailing Academy claimed first place on handicap in the 2025 Cape2Rio race. In doing so, they made history as the first such team to earn their place and take victory in the 3 300-nautical mile transatlantic crossing, which took 19 days. For the race, three other female crew took part, but they had already returned to South Africa for work and education commitments when the Angel Wings sank.

On 10 January, the team faced a major setback when their boom broke during a sailing manoeuvre mid-Atlantic. Its failure placed the crew in a severely compromised position and would typically force retirement from a race of this nature, Alexforbes stated. Faced with that reality, the team made the decision to continue, racing without a boom and spinnaker – the large, balloon-like sail used to maximise downwind speed. Despite the damage, Alexforbes Angel Wings not only remained competitive but extended their 25-hour lead by several hours, arriving in Rio ahead of their expected finish time.

“I’m incredibly proud of this crew. They were tested, and the way they stayed calm, solved problems and kept racing was impressive,” Sizatu said. “The support from home and other crews along the way meant a huge amount, and I hope this shows young people in South Africa that with commitment and teamwork, even things that seem impossible can be achieved.”

https://defenceweb.co.za/sea/sea-sea/south-african-navy-returns-cape2rio-race-winners-to-shore-after-yacht-sinks/

Lurker4Long:
Odunayaw will feel vindicated in his aquaphobia by this story:

Odunayaw:
Never trust the water guys. Mother Terra will never leave you stranded.

Exnavyboy62:
What Damen OPV was supposed to be constructed alongside the MMIPVs under project biro…??

Lurker4Long:
A stupid decision, in my view. They should've gone ahead with the 3 OPVs and postponed the IPVs, not the other way round.
Anyway, Damen Cape Town would've built the Damen OPV 1800 Military:
https://www.damen.com/vessels/defence-and-security/opv/offshore-patrol-vessel-1800-military

GreenandGold:
@Lurker4Long

Mmmm, when did we get a Mbombe 6 and 8?

Tinfoil:
"Somalia has reportedly finalized a deal with Pakistan for up to 24 JF-17 Block III Multirole Fighters, valued at approximately $900 million, as part of efforts to rebuild the country’s air force.

GreenandGold:
If Somali can secure 24 FJ-17s, Kenya can afford to buy 6 squadrons without breaking the bank.

Jokes aside, I don't even think they can raise $900 even through a generous loan. In fact the Blue Star flag state and the U.S will make sure they don't so that they'll able to have Puntland on the north.

Tinfoil:
They are being financed by the Saudis.

GreenandGold:
Nevermind, Paramount Group asked to be part of the parade.

GreenandGold:
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GreenandGold:
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