₦airaland Forum

NIGERIA is stubbornly indulging in self-sabotage by refusing to let go of the four refineries owned by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. What was once sold to Nigerians as “national pride” has become a bottomless pit—swallowing trillions, producing excuses, and delivering nothing close to commercially sustainable fuel.

With uncommon candour, the NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, admitted publicly recently what Nigerians have known for decades: the refineries are running at a “monumental loss.”

During the Nigeria International Energy Summit in Abuja, Ojulari said the quiet part out loud: that efforts to revamp the refineries were simply futile.

“I want to say this very clearly… that we were running at a monumental loss to Nigeria. We were just wasting money. I can say that confidently now.” That is rare honesty, but honesty alone does not plug a N13.2 trillion hole.

That benumbing figure, equivalent to 22.7 per cent of the 2026 federal budget and nearly half of expected revenues, sits flush in NNPC’s own financial statements.

Between 2023 and 2024, about N13.2 trillion was injected into the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries, ostensibly for turnaround maintenance, operations, staffing, security and bank charges.

In 2024, the NNPC, under Mele Kyari, deceived the public into believing that the refineries in Port Harcourt and Warri had started working. Even the President, Bola Tinubu, joined in the ruse by issuing a signed statement congratulating the weakened behemoth on the milestone. It was grand trickery.

Despite not producing anything, the moribund refineries spend about N127–N137 billion annually on salaries and employee benefits for roughly 1,600–1,700 staff between 2020 and 2024. This is a high price to pay for failure.

Instead of becoming productive assets, the plants deepened their dependence on the NNPC balance sheet. Their combined obligations to NNPC ballooned from N4.52 trillion in 2023 to N8.67 trillion by the end of 2024. No receivables. No offsetting revenues. Just debt compounding debt. Allowing this to continue is patently irrational.

The Port Harcourt Refinery alone gulped over N2.2 trillion in one year, rising to N4.22 trillion in obligations. Warri and Kaduna followed the same ruinous pattern. Even when crude was supplied “every month,” utilisation hovered around 50–55 per cent, destroying rather than creating value. Nigeria was, in Ojulari’s words, “leaking away value.”

This demonstrates a glaring failure not only of economics but also of governance.

For over two decades, TAM has been the euphemism under which billions disappeared, yet no questions asked, no accounting and no reckoning.

From the abortive 1998 and 2000 exercises to the $1.5 billion Port Harcourt rehabilitation approved in 2021, the script never changed: award EPC contracts, pay contractors, inaugurate the plant with fanfare, then watch it collapse into silence weeks or months later.

Maintenance after TAM was neglected. Operators with world-class experience were never embedded. Corruption and mismanagement ruled the day.

Industry experts have long warned that these plants are simply too old to resurrect economically.

Aliko Dangote likened the exercise to forcing new parts into a 40-year-old car and expecting Formula One performance. With Nigeria dependent on fuel imports until it was rescued by the Dangote Refinery, the country paid a huge price.

Nigeria wasted N2.7 trillion on phoney petrol imports in 2011. For decades, it was plagued by petrol queues.

Former president Olusegun Obasanjo has repeatedly asked why the NNPC keeps pretending it can do what decades of evidence show it cannot.

Along with vandalised pipelines, unreliable crude supply, obsolete technology and skills gaps, the conclusion is that the refineries destroy value by design.

Worse still, refining locally has often cost more than importing the same products. The NNPC’s internal reviews showed that, in some cases, processing crude into petrol, diesel or kerosene delivered a net loss. This is the definition of a white elephant.

And yet, Nigeria keeps itself mired in this sordid rigmarole because past leaders lacked the courage to exit. The 2007 privatisation, reversed after former President Umaru Yar’Adua took office, now seems like a punishment for such untold folly.

Fears of political backlash, pressure from labour unions and the cynical cry of “selling to cronies” have paralysed decision-making ever since. The result is a national oil company acting as a charity for inefficiency.

Other countries have demonstrated that governments have no business in such business. The United States operates over 131 refineries as of January 2025 with a combined capacity of 18.2 million bpd, and none is owned by the government.

Canada privatised its oil assets in stages between 1991 and 2004, resulting in large private sector entities that guarantee energy security and a stable refining capacity of 2.5 million bpd.

Singapore, despite an oil output of just 20,000 bpd, has transformed into a major refining hub in South-East Asia, refining 1.5 million bpd from three refineries operated by oil majors.

Tinubu inherited this mess, but he does not have to perpetuate it. Indeed, his economic reforms, signposted by fuel subsidy removal, fiscal tightening, and market pricing, will amount to nothing if the refineries remain on life support. You cannot preach efficiency while funding failure.

Selling the refineries, outright, transparently, and competitively, is the only way out of this fiscal sinkhole.

Private operators, with capital, technology and discipline, may still salvage value or shut them down and redeploy assets rationally. Either outcome is better than the current haemorrhage.

Dangote spent $20 billion to deliver a greenfield 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery. Yet, the NNPC spent a similar amount over 20 years to “repair” its 445,000 bpd drainpipe facilities. This national folly must stop.

Nigeria now has proof that private capital can deliver local refining. The state cannot afford to cling to assets it cannot manage while trying to overcome current fiscal challenges, especially mounting debt amid CAPEX revenue shortfall.

Ojulari has prudently stopped the operations to reassess. But reassessment must not become another pause before the next wasteful reboot. The line of sight to recovery, which he admits does not exist, will not magically appear with another TAM.

The NNPC declared a record profit of N5.7 trillion on N60.5 trillion revenue for the 2025 financial year. This is a decent return, but with subsidiary debts standing at N30.3 trillion as of 2024, including those owned by the refineries, the company remains under severe financial strain that threatens its long-term viability.

Therefore, Tinubu must summon the political courage that eluded his predecessors. He must not listen to the repeated lies of vested interests that the refineries will work by committing more funds.

For far too long, criminals have used the NNPC, its refineries and other subsidiaries as tools to plunder state resources.

He must stop the bleeding and sell the refineries. He must also set the machinery in motion to privatise the NNPC itself in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act and raise funds to facilitate economic diversification and build critical infrastructure.

Saudi Aramco’s partial privatisation, even in small percentages, has raised billions of dollars for that country’s sovereign wealth fund. This is an example to follow rather than resorting to endless borrowing.

Beyond this, the Tinubu administration must hold those responsible for the gross mismanagement of the country’s most valuable asset to account.

iwaeda:
When Atiku said they called him names, APC has come to plunder Nigeria. Few months ago, they were celebrating fake PH and Warri refineries, one Anazodo was even abusing us on social media as pessimistic.s. The money wasted enough to start a brand new 250 bpd refineries in two places.

LibertyRep:
Instead of selling the four, can we sell 3 then use the proceed to rebuilt just one. I really do not think we should leave this critical sector to private individuals

skywalker240:
Or even two

You're right about that

iwaeda:
When Atiku said they called him names, APC has come to plunder Nigeria. Few months ago, they were celebrating fake PH and Warri refineries, one Anazodo was even abusing us on social media as pessimistic.s. The money wasted enough to start a brand new 250 bpd refineries in two places.

Till2036:
Those we sell in the past, no good result

fineboynl:
That refinery is just politics.

They will refine if they want to because of ragtags boys can refine crude from the creeks with poor equipment. That refinery can do better