₦airaland Forum

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Good day, my people. Since today is the birthday of Nigeria's president, let's bring the conversation back home to something that affects our daily bread. If there is one debate that always sets this forum on fire, it is the 16 years of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) versus the current era of the All Progressives Congress (APC) now extending into 2026.

Let us be brutally honest today. We are going to look at the cold, hard facts—from the exchange rate in 2015, to the bombs, the looted funds, and the current "sapa" hitting the streets in early 2026.

1. The Economy: Debts, Exchange Rate, and the "Between"

The year 2015 was the ultimate turning point. When the PDP handed over power, the official exchange rate was hovering around N197 to $1. Fast forward to early 2026, under the APC's floated naira, the exchange rate has stabilized somewhat but remains painfully high. According to the CBN's post-MPC communiqué, the naira appreciated to N1,363.40/$ at the official market in January 2026, a significant improvement from the 2024 crisis but still a far cry from the PDP era.

On national debt, the contrast is staggering. By December 2015, Nigeria's total public debt was N12.6 trillion. As of September 2025, under the APC, Nigeria's total public debt rose to N153.29 trillion, up 7.71 per cent year-on-year from N142.32 trillion in September 2024. The debt-to-GDP ratio improved to 37.13 per cent, supported by stronger GDP growth, but the absolute numbers remain daunting.

Former PDP Presidential aspirant, Dr. Gbenga Hashim, speaking on Channels Television's Politics Today in February 2026, highlighted the economic regression:

"GDP stood at about $267 billion during the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and rose to over $574 billion under President Goodluck Jonathan, but has now fallen to around $230 billion. This is a shocking regression for a nation with massive human and natural resources."

But the biggest economic hook remains the fuel subsidy. In January 2012, when President Goodluck Jonathan attempted to remove the fuel subsidy, the opposition organized the massive "Occupy Nigeria" protests. During that time, Bola Ahmed Tinubu wrote a scathing article titled "Removal of oil subsidy: President Jonathan breaks social contract with the people."

In that 2012 article, Tinubu fired heavily at the PDP administration, writing:

"Because he [Jonathan] is a slave to wrong-headed economics, the people will become enslaved to greater misery... The removal of the subsidy is the Jonathan tax. Though someday Nigeria will have to remove the subsidy, the time to do it is not now."

He went further with startlingly accurate predictions that would foreshadow his own presidency:

"Subsidy removal will increase costs across the board. However, salaries will not increase. This means demand for goods will lessen as will sales volumes and overall economic activity. The removal will have a recessionary impact on the economy as a whole... With fuel prices increasing twofold or more, transportation costs will roughly double. Prices of food staples will increase between 25-50 percent."

Tinubu also predicted the human toll with eerie precision:

"There will be less food, less medicine, and less school across the land. More children will cry in hunger and more parents will cry at their children's despair... The Jonathan tax has doomed Nigeria to extra hardship for years to come while the promised benefits of deregulation will never be substantially realized. People will starve and families crumble while federal officials praise themselves for 'saving money.'"

Fast forward to May 2023, President Tinubu took the podium and declared "subsidy is gone," effectively implementing the exact policy he fought against.

By early 2026, the macroeconomic indicators have shown some improvement. The CBN reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent in February 2026, citing sustained disinflation with headline inflation moderating to 15.1 per cent year-on-year in January 2026. External reserves rose to $50.5 billion in February 2026 from $44.5 billion in November 2025. Foreign portfolio inflows increased by 225.6 per cent to $14.2 billion in 9M:2025.

However, economic watchers at Afrinvest Research note that these improving indicators are "being overshadowed by a steadily rising public debt profile".

The Opposition's Voice: The PDP now uses Tinubu's old words against him. In a Democracy Day statement, PDP spokesperson Debo Ologunagba declared that APC policies have "weaponized poverty in the country." The PDP has also accused President Tinubu of "prioritising revenue over Nigerians' welfare amid tax act controversy".

2. Security: The Evolution of Terrorism (Bombs to Banditry)

Security is perhaps the most heavily debated sector. Under the PDP, especially between 2011 and 2014, Boko Haram grew into an untamable monster. The 2014 Chibok Girls kidnapping shocked the entire globe.

When the APC took over in 2015, they inherited a military that had been demoralized and underfunded. Africa Confidential noted at the time that Buhari's government faced, "with an empty treasury and oil prices heading south towards US$30 or even $20 a barrel, the worst economic conditions in two decades".

The APC technically degraded Boko Haram's physical territories and stopped the massive city bombings. However, new threats emerged, including the resurgence of militant agitation in the Niger Delta and renewed Biafran secessionist movements.

Tinubu's 2014 Attacks on PDP Security Failures

As opposition leader in 2014, Tinubu was relentless in criticizing the PDP's handling of terror. When a Twitter user (Minister of State for Defence Musiliu Obanikoro) accused Tinubu's friends of creating Boko Haram, Tinubu fired back:

"Obanikoro and this shameless PDP government should step forward and explain to Nigerians why the over 200 girls kidnapped in Chibok are yet to be rescued. They should explain why the Boko Haram insurgency continues unabated despite billions that is being voted for security."

He accused the PDP of profiting from terror:

"The defence budget to fight Boko Haram and Terrorism has become a conduit pipe for the ruling party PDP... It is the PDP led government in which Obanikoro is an active and pliable agent that is perpetrating the insurgency for pecuniary benefits. This government has no shame. It lacks the moral authority to point fingers at individuals or the opposition."

In July 2014, when a bomb attack targeted Muhammadu Buhari's convoy in Kaduna, Tinubu issued a damning statement:

"The multiple bomb attack today on General Buhari... confirms that our country is in the grip of terror. Sadly, we are in the hands of a bungling, buck passing and blackmailing presidency... Under an increasingly incompetent and incoherent PDP-government, Nigeria slips into a low intensity war."

The Opposition's Voice: Today, by March 2026, the security situation has evolved further. While Boko Haram has been significantly degraded, banditry and kidnapping remain challenges. The PDP continues to argue that the APC has "democratized insecurity." Gbenga Hashim claimed that "several figures within the ADC were closely associated with policies that contributed to the present crisis".

3. Notable Voices: Adeboye, Soyinka, and the National Debate

Pastor Enoch Adeboye: From Critic to Supporter

Pastor Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), was among the critics of subsidy removal in 2012. However, in a dramatic turn, he has now hailed President Tinubu's subsidy removal decision as good for the economy.

Speaking at the Special Holy Ghost Congress in Abuja in November 2024, Adeboye explained:

"Before our current president took office, we were aware that the root of our financial issues lay in the importation of petrol. Despite having oil, we continued to import petrol and waste billions on refineries that did not operate effectively. When the president cancelled the subsidy on petrol imports, those who benefited from it became upset and created more problems."

He made a striking claim about divine intervention:

"If God hadn't intervened, $1 could have been worth ₦10,000 by now. This illustrates how much we need prayers."

Professor Wole Soyinka: The Conscience of the Nation

Nobel Laureate Professor Wole Soyinka has been a vocal critic of government policies across both administrations. In September 2012, after President Jonathan suggested that the Occupy Nigeria protests were sponsored, Soyinka responded with characteristic fire:

"The most generous response that can be given to President Jonathan's recent statement on the people's fuel subsidy protest is that he is suffering from a bad conscience. The worst – which I fear is closer to the truth – is that he is lamentably alienated from the true pulse of the nation, thanks perhaps to the poor, eager-to-please quality of his analysts."

Soyinka warned of democratic backsliding:

"This should be seen as a grave danger to democracy, and a warning. Both the participants and those who... lent both vocal and moral support to the demonstration, have been maligned and insulted by such reductionist reasoning... What is this obsession with bottled water, comedians and musical artists? Must demonstrators drink water from the gutter? Is protest no longer viable when sympathizers cater to their needs?"

4. Corruption and Looted Funds: Dasukigate vs. Modern Scandals

Both parties have given us blockbuster corruption scandals. The PDP era was characterized by the infamous "Dasukigate" ($2.1 billion arms procurement scandal) where money meant to fight Boko Haram was allegedly diverted for the 2015 elections.

The APC rode to power on the promise to "kill corruption." However, their era has been rocked by massive internal looting, including the N109 billion embezzlement scandal involving their own Accountant-General, Ahmed Idris, and the suspension of Minister Betta Edu over an alleged N585 million scandal.

Africa Confidential noted in 2016 that while Buhari had earned "credibility with the anti-corruption campaign," the challenge remained daunting.

The Opposition's Voice: The APC previously branded the PDP as a party of treasury looters. Today, the PDP opposition mocks the APC's anti-corruption war as a sham, pointing to the lavish lifestyles and monumental racketeering under their watch while the masses suffer.

5. Present Living Conditions (March 2026): From Subsidy to "Renewed Hope"

Let's talk about the reality on the streets right now in March 2026. During the PDP years, fuel was cheap (around N87 per liter in 2015), and a 50kg bag of local rice was around N8,500.

Today, under the APC, the situation has stabilized somewhat compared to the peak crisis of 2024, but the baseline remains dramatically higher. The CBN projects headline inflation to moderate to an average of 12.94% in 2026. The Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 57.6 points, indicating expansion in the private sector.

However, as Meristem Securities noted, "Public debt is expected to rise further, driven by higher domestic borrowings and increased external commitments, particularly given the wider 2026 budget deficit of N23.85tn (compared to N14.10tn in 2025)".

The DMO expects to "leverage favourable external rates and improved investor confidence, while sustained exchange rate stability should help contain near-term external debt servicing pressures".

The Opposition's Voice: Pre-2015, APC leaders marched on the streets calling PDP policies "wicked" and "anti-people." Today, the PDP claims the APC's 'Renewed Hope' is still falling short. Gbenga Hashim issued an open challenge in February 2026: "It is an open challenge. Let their best hands—the CBN governor and the finance minister—come out for a live public debate on the economy with me".

Final Analysis: PDP vs. APC in All Major Facets (1999 - March 2026)

If we remove party sentiments, tribalism, and bias, here is the cold, hard analysis.

1. Economic Management (Winner: PDP by default)
The PDP kept the Naira stable (N197/$1) and inflation in single digits. The APC under Buhari and Tinubu has pursued orthodox economic reforms—subsidy removal, floating the naira, tax reforms—that are theoretically correct but have inflicted historic pain on the masses. While the CBN projects inflation to ease to 12.94% in 2026, the average Nigerian has yet to feel meaningful relief.

2. Security (Winner: Tie - Different Monsters)
The PDP allowed Boko Haram to capture territory. The APC degraded Boko Haram but allowed banditry and kidnapping to emerge. Under PDP, you feared bombs. Under APC, you fear kidnapping and, in recent years, renewed militant agitation in the Delta. Neither party has achieved lasting peace.

3. Governance & Institutions (Winner: PDP)
The PDP built the EFCC, ICPC, and electoral reforms. The APC has kept these institutions but faced accusations of wielding them selectively. The 2027 election cycle is already influencing policy, with INEC rescheduling the general elections to 16 January 2027.

4. Infrastructure (Winner: APC)
The APC has delivered visible infrastructure—rail, roads, bridges—even if debt-funded. The Lagos-Ibadan railway stands as a testament.

5. Social Welfare & Living Standards (Winner: PDP)
Despite the corruption, the PDP era offered affordable fuel, food, and a functional middle class. The APC era, even with improving indicators in 2026, has seen the middle class decimated. As Afrinvest Research noted, the most significant downside risk remains "pre-election fiscal dynamics" that could "complicate monetary transmission and inflation management".

6. Foreign Investment & External Position (Winner: APC - Recent)
The APC has recorded impressive gains here. Foreign portfolio inflows rose 225.6% to $14.2 billion in 9M:2025. External reserves hit $50.5 billion in February 2026. The CBN projects external reserves to reach $51.04 billion in 2026. This is a clear APC achievement, though critics argue it has come at the cost of domestic suffering.

7. Democratic Health (Winner: PDP for 2015 transfer)
The 2015 election was Nigeria's freest—conducted by PDP's Jonathan. The 2023 election and its aftermath have left many questioning the democratic trajectory.

The Verdict: The data tells a nuanced story by March 2026. The APC has achieved macroeconomic stabilization—lower inflation, stronger reserves, increased portfolio inflows—but at a tremendous human cost. The PDP era offered stability and affordability without structural reform. If you are an investor, the APC's Nigeria of 2026 looks promising. If you are an average Nigerian worker or family, you were better off under the PDP. The challenge for the APC as it heads toward the January 2027 elections is whether the macroeconomic gains will translate into tangible relief before Nigerians head to the polls.

chatinent 2026 (c). All Rights Reserved.


Supporting Sources


Tribune Online (Tinubu's 2012 subsidy article): https://tribuneonlineng.com/fact-check-did-tinubu-kick-against-subsidy-removal-in-2012/

Tribune Online (Tinubu's accurate 12-year-old prediction on subsidy removal effects): https://tribuneonlineng.com/tinubus-accurate-12-year-old-prediction-on-subsidy-removal-effects/

TheWill (Tinubu vs Obanikoro - Boko Haram accusation 2014): https://thewillnews.com/tinubu-takes-on-obanikoro-over-tweet-accusing-his-friends-of-creating-boko-haram/

NewsFetchers (Tinubu replies Obanikoro: 'You and PDP are the ones helping Boko Haram'): https://www.newsfetchers.com/2014/07/tinubu-replies-obanikoro-and-pdp-are.html

Radio Nigeria Kaduna (Nigeria's Economy In Regression Under APC - Gbenga Hashim Feb 2026): https://www.radionigeriakaduna.gov.ng/2026/02/05/nigerias-economy-in-regression-under-apc-gbenga-hashim/

Naija News (Adeboye hails subsidy removal, says God's intervention saved naira Nov 2024): [url]https://www./2024/11/15/adeboye-hails-subsidy-removal-says-gods-intervention-saved-naira-from-falling-to-%E2%82%A610000-per-dollar/[/url]

Nairametrics (CBN projects inflation to ease to 12.94% in 2026, debt at 34.68% of GDP): https://nairametrics.com/category/nigerian-business-news-curated-from-several-print-and-online-newspapers/nigerian-business-news/economy/page/28/

Nairametrics (PDP accuses Tinubu of prioritising revenue over welfare): https://nairametrics.com/category/nigerian-business-news-curated-from-several-print-and-online-newspapers/nigerian-business-news/economy/page/28/

Africa Confidential (Big tests beckon for Buhari - 2016 analysis): https://www.africa-confidential.com:443/index.aspx?articleid=11409&pageid=7

Nairaland (Subsidy Protests: Jonathan Suffering From Bad Conscience – Soyinka 2012): https://www.nairaland.com/1055171/subsidy-protests-jonathan-suffering-bad

Punch Newspapers (Rising public debt dims CBN's rate cut – Experts March 2026): https://punchng.com/rising-public-debt-dims-cbns-rate-cut-experts/

Supporting charts and diagrams

Supporting charts and diagrams II

Tinubu is the worst President in Nigeria history. He has practically grounded every sectors. Economy is zero, insecurity is at all time high, for the first time Nigeria has more poor people than India whose population is five times bigger. Under his watch Nigeria became a disgraced country and designated CPC.

I can go on and on. In fact I can do this all day.

Tenses:
Tinubu is the worst President in Nigeria history. He has practically grounded every sectors. Economy is zero, insecurity is at all time high, for the first time Nigeria has more poor people than India whose population is five times biggerUnder his watch Nigeria became a disgraced country and designated CPC.

I can go on and on. In fact I can do this all day.

Who would you prefer to take over?

I still remember vividly how I bought 50kg bag of rice with 8k at supermarket during Goodluck tenure, for a church thanksgiving in Porthacourt.

APC honestly messed up Nigeria

chatinent:
Who would you prefer to take over?

Peter Obi anytime anyday, twice on election day.

In social welfare, infrastructures,education etc,it is Tinubu's govt but his removal of subsidy has foisted hardship on Nigerians but some prices have gone down while some are still flying in the sky.
We hope and pray it gets better.

Tenses:
Peter Obi anytime anyday, twice on election day.

Okay. I prefer someone else though.

Actually Nigeria is moving at the right direction just at slow pace.

Security and power are really slowing the progress being made by this administration. Though there are still some angles that the government are yet to touch.

The regulation of the religious centers. The no tax law was introduced century ago . That law is now obsolete in this century

Nigeria was hell under the PDP.

Millions of Nigerians were becoming poor every year