₦airaland Forum

One of the “big wins” constantly advertised by this administration is that state governments now receive more allocation than ever before. And somehow, whenever anyone asks a simple question about accountability, like what exactly all these loans have achieved in the lives of citizens, the conversation magically shifts.

Suddenly, it’s no longer about federal responsibility. It becomes: “But states are getting more money now!”

We are told, repeatedly, that allocations have “increased.” But this has quietly become one of the most misleading narratives in recent times.

Yes, allocations in naira have increased.
But when you factor in inflation and the collapse of the exchange rate, states are actually receiving far less value than before.

So the real question is simple:
Has state allocation truly increased or does it just look that way on paper?

Let’s step away from emotions and look at the numbers.

2014 (Before the decline began)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦600 – ₦700 billion
Exchange rate: ₦165/$1
Dollar value: $3.6 – $4.2 billion per month

2022 (Before the current administration)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦700 – ₦800 billion
Exchange rate: ₦430/$1
Dollar value: $1.6 – $1.9 billion per month

2025 (Current reality)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦1.1 – ₦1.3 trillion
Exchange rate: ₦1,500/$1
Dollar value: $730 – $860 million per month

At first glance, the naira figures look impressive. Trillions instead of billions, it sounds like massive growth.

But in real terms, the value has collapsed.

So when it is said that “allocations have increased,” it is technically correct but economically misleading.

This is a simple arithmetic: while FAAC has increased in naira terms, its real value has dropped by over 75–80% since 2014.

Meanwhile:
Government borrowing is at unprecedented levels
States are receiving less real value than ever
The cost of governance has risen sharply

And yet, one uncomfortable question remains:

Why are state governors not speaking up about this reality?

Are they unable to see the difference, or is there something else at play?

To make matters worse, while allocations have lost value, the burden on citizens has increased. The minimum wage, for instance, has effectively dropped from over $100 in 2014 to barely $40 in 2026.

Where exactly has all the borrowed money gone after three years without even a single block of classroom to point to?

And those “savings” from subsidy removal, where exactly are they hiding? Because from everything we can see and verify, they’re clearly not with the state governments… and definitely not reflected in the lives of ordinary citizens.

These are the questions many Nigerians are still waiting to have answered.

Iree o!

State allocation has more than doubled. Revenue used to be about ninety percent oil and gas but last year it was 45 percent and this year it would be less. Osun is running easily without collecting LG allocations and they are doing projects. Even Tinubu could not do this when Obasanjo seized Lagos funds. So the reality is allocations to states have more than doubled and you can't use CBN dollar rate for naira in 2022 when ninety percent of people paid far more. You can't even use the market rate because Buhari was borrowing dollars heavily to prop up the naira. The real value of the naira that Buhari left was like 2000 to one dollar. The GDP did not crash, what happened is that the naira rested at its true value and the GDP was recalculated

The Federal and State Governments share the monthly allocation based on an established formula.

If the allocation to the states has indeed decreased, it logically follows that the Federal Government’s share has also declined.

So, what exactly is your point?

And what about the paradise they promised after subsidy is removed?

Have you all forgotten?

lawani:
State allocation has more than doubled. Revenue used to be about ninety percent oil and gas but last year it was 45 percent and this year it would be less. Osun is running easily without collecting LG allocations and they are doing projects. Even Tinubu could not do this when Obasanjo seized Lagos funds. So the reality is allocations to states have more than doubled and you can't use CBN dollar rate for naira in 2022 when ninety percent of people paid far more. You can't even use the market rate because Buhari was borrowing dollars heavily to prop up the naira. The real value of the naira that Buhari left was like 2000 to one dollar. The GDP did not crash, what happened is that the naira rested at its true value and the GDP was recalculated

Do you even understand what he is thinking?

He seems to believe that allocations from the Federation Account to the states are determined at the discretion of Tinubu. Just look at his questions:

“Why are state governors not speaking up about this reality?
Are they unable to see the difference, or is there something else at play?”

So, to be clear, the governors, all 36 State Accountants-General, and Commissioners of Finance have somehow failed to notice what he alone has brilliantly uncovered? Quite an impressive level of “insight,” I must say.

Richtaiwo:
Do you even understand what he is thinking?

He seems to believe that allocations from the Federation Account to the states are determined at the discretion of Tinubu. Just look at his questions:

“Why are state governors not speaking up about this reality?
Are they unable to see the difference, or is there something else at play?”

So, to be clear, the governors, all 36 State Accountants-General, and Commissioners of Finance have somehow failed to notice what he alone has brilliantly uncovered? Quite an impressive level of “insight,” I must say.

It is the exchange rate confusing all of them. They ought to realize the economy did not contract. The naira value was under manipulation leading to the GDP being bigger in dollars.
The biggest problem of Nigeria is dependence on oil income and last year oil was not majority of income which hasn't happened in decades.
The government is going in the right direction outside the fact that the NSA is sending unknown gunmen to Nigerian forests as vigilantes when people are under the attack and being killed by unknown gunmen. If those that killed dozens in Jos were arrested by locals, the NSA will probably they are his vigilantes and the NSA is still the NSA meaning more people will die and that's something to worry about

The dollar value is one thing, but the buying power within Nigeria is another. Before tinubu, it hovered around N400b-N450b a month.

How many manual labour can that afford versus how many manual labour can it afford today? That is why i fault this govt for not trying to boost production of food, clothes, household items, cash crop real estates. Things the least skilled labourers can rapidly increase their production.

ibabz:
One of the “big wins” constantly advertised by this administration is that state governments now receive more allocation than ever before. And somehow, whenever anyone asks a simple question about accountability, like what exactly all these loans have achieved in the lives of citizens, the conversation magically shifts.

Suddenly, it’s no longer about federal responsibility. It becomes: “But states are getting more money now!”

We are told, repeatedly, that allocations have “increased.” But this has quietly become one of the most misleading narratives in recent times.

Yes, allocations in naira have increased.
But when you factor in inflation and the collapse of the exchange rate, states are actually receiving far less value than before.

So the real question is simple:
Has state allocation truly increased or does it just look that way on paper?

Let’s step away from emotions and look at the numbers.

2014 (Before the decline began)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦600 – ₦700 billion
Exchange rate: ₦165/$1
Dollar value: $3.6 – $4.2 billion per month

2022 (Before the current administration)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦700 – ₦800 billion
Exchange rate: ₦430/$1
Dollar value: $1.6 – $1.9 billion per month

2025 (Current reality)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦1.1 – ₦1.3 trillion
Exchange rate: ₦1,500/$1
Dollar value: $730 – $860 million per month

At first glance, the naira figures look impressive. Trillions instead of billions, it sounds like massive growth.

But in real terms, the value has collapsed.

So when it is said that “allocations have increased,” it is technically correct but economically misleading.

This is a simple arithmetic: while FAAC has increased in naira terms, its real value has dropped by over 75–80% since 2014.

Meanwhile:
Government borrowing is at unprecedented levels
States are receiving less real value than ever
The cost of governance has risen sharply

And yet, one uncomfortable question remains:

Why are state governors not speaking up about this reality?

Are they unable to see the difference, or is there something else at play?

To make matters worse, while allocations have lost value, the burden on citizens has increased. The minimum wage, for instance, has effectively dropped from over $100 in 2014 to barely $40 in 2026.

Where exactly has all the borrowed money gone after three years without even a single block of classroom to point to?

And those “savings” from subsidy removal, where exactly are they hiding? Because from everything we can see and verify, they’re clearly not with the state governments… and definitely not reflected in the lives of ordinary citizens.

These are the questions many Nigerians are still waiting to have answered.

Iree o!

Do you know under Jonathan some states couldn't pay salaries?

Do you know under Buhari some states couldn't pay salaries?

You're very ignorant.

lawani:
State allocation has more than doubled. Revenue used to be about ninety percent oil and gas but last year it was 45 percent and this year it would be less. Osun is running easily without collecting LG allocations and they are doing projects. Even Tinubu could not do this when Obasanjo seized Lagos funds. So the reality is allocations to states have more than doubled and you can't use CBN dollar rate for naira in 2022 when ninety percent of people paid far more. You can't even use the market rate because Buhari was borrowing dollars heavily to prop up the naira. The real value of the naira that Buhari left was like 2000 to one dollar. The GDP did not crash, what happened is that the naira rested at its true value and the GDP was recalculated

I believe my point was explicit enough for a kindergartener to understand. I’ve shared the monthly allocations for 2014, 2022, and 2023 in both Naira and dollar equivalents. If you want to defend, fine, but at least use facts and figures. Ranting here like a typical keyboard warrior, defending nonsense without logic or evidence, only shows either a lack of comprehension or a need to justify your monthly stipend for defending this government. Not everyone is foolish at the same time.

The issue with some of the opposition supporters is arguing confidently on something they have little knowledge about.

Just like the op. We actually stopped wasting time to lecture their likes

Are we spending dollars in Nigeria? Are the governors expected to be using dollars for all their states projects

Parachoko:
Do you know under Jonathan some states couldn't pay salaries?

Do you know under Buhari some states couldn't pay salaries?

You're very ignorant.

Pls compare the debt profile of those states during Jonathan, Buhari and Tinubu. Perhaps you may understand why it seems they can when in actual fact they are borrowing to pay salaries.

ibabz:
Pls compare the debt profile of those states during Jonathan, Buhari and Tinubu. Perhaps you may understand why it seems they can when in actual fact they are borrowing to pay salaries.

What was the cause for the borrowing if the money they earned under GEJ was more valuable than today?

Remember GEJ also borrowed money to pay salary. What exactly was the borrowing for?

ibabz:
I believe my point was explicit enough for a kindergartener to understand. I’ve shared the monthly allocations for 2014, 2022, and 2023 in both Naira and dollar equivalents. If you want to defend, fine, but at least use facts and figures. Ranting here like a typical keyboard warrior, defending nonsense without logic or evidence, only shows either a lack of comprehension or a need to justify your monthly stipend for defending this government. Not everyone is foolish at the same time.

Why are you now insulting me? Are you that ill mannered? You can't use CBN rates for calculation when people pay double. You can't even use market rates because Buhari was disturbing it by borrowing dollars heavily just to change to naira and thereby flooding the forex market with dollars to prop up the Naira. Do you understand now? I doubt you ever can.

If the exchange rate you use is faulty then all your base crumbles. If you had common sense you would understand

The Illusion APC sold to paint a picture that Tinubu is working

It is all propaganda

lawani:
It is the exchange rate confusing all of them. They ought to realize the economy did not contract. The naira value was under manipulation leading to the GDP being bigger in dollars.
The biggest problem of Nigeria is dependence on oil income and last year oil was not majority of income which hasn't happened in decades.
The government is going in the right direction outside the fact that the NSA is sending unknown gunmen to Nigerian forests as vigilantes when people are under the attack and being killed by unknown gunmen. If those that killed dozens in Jos were arrested by locals, the NSA will probably they are his vigilantes and the NSA is still the NSA meaning more people will die and that's something to worry about

I understand your frustration. What right do I have to question the so-called “achievements” you’re celebrating? Is that why you’re so eager to defend it. If you want to make a case, show the before-and-after figures. Without data, what you wrote is meaningless noise.

ibabz:
I understand your frustration. What right do I have to question the so-called “achievements” you’re celebrating? Is that why you’re so eager to defend it. If you want to make a case, show the before-and-after figures. Without data, what you wrote is meaningless noise.

I have corrected you and if you are too pompous to take corrections at least people reading the thread will not be carried away by your emotion driven conclusions. The achievement of the Tinubu government is freeing the nation from oil dependence. Creating CIT, VAT and etc as the main government revenue sources. That is his achievement. If no oil today Nigeria will not collapse but if no oil under Buhari, Nigeria would have collapsed immediately. Nobody has been able to do that for decades. He did it in Lagos and has now done it in Abuja. Who do you now give the credit?

lawani:
Why are you now insulting me? Are you that ill mannered? You can't use CBN rates for calculation when people pay double. You can't even use market rates because Buhari was disturbing it by borrowing dollars heavily just to change to naira and thereby flooding the forex market with dollars to prop up the Naira. Do you understand now? I doubt you ever can.

If the exchange rate you use is faulty then all your base crumbles. If you had common sense you would understand

Please show me where I insulted you. I only asked you to justify your point. Yet you came back with an even more useless argument, simply because you wanted to defend what is fundamentally indefensible. I provided the 2014, 2022, and 2023 figures to show the data from PDP to APC and to highlight the comparison between the two APC governments.

Why then claim I can’t use CBN rates for the calculation? You might want to explain that, because it makes no sense to me and I believe it makes no sense to any right-thinking Nigerian, not those blinded by ethnicity or religious sentiment or those keyboard warriors whose their so called achievement is being questioned.

If Buhari was distributing funds and flooding the market, did Jonathan do the same thing? And are you truly convinced this government hasn’t begun defending the naira just to prop up rates and make it appear as if the policy is working?

The same way we can’t explain someone who earns N15,000 or N33,000 minimum wage @ over $100 are now living better and were able to buy tokunbo cars, built houses than some who earns N70,000 minimum wage @$40 today but are struggling to eat one meal a day.

Frankly, I cannot follow your contradictory defense. It’s full of inconsistencies and excuses, not facts.

Ya

ibabz:
Please show me where I insulted you. I only asked you to justify your point. Yet you came back with an even more useless argument, simply because you wanted to defend what is fundamentally indefensible. I provided the 2014, 2022, and 2023 figures to show the data from PDP to APC and to highlight the comparison between the two APC governments.

Why then claim I can’t use CBN rates for the calculation? You might want to explain that, because it makes no sense to me and I believe it makes no sense to any right-thinking Nigerian, not those blinded by ethnicity or religious sentiment or those keyboard warriors whose their so called achievement is being questioned.

If Buhari was distributing funds and flooding the market, did Jonathan do the same thing? And are you truly convinced this government hasn’t begun defending the naira just to prop up rates and make it appear as if the policy is working?

The same way we can’t explain someone who earns N15,000 or N33,000 minimum wage @ over $100 are now living better and were able to buy tokunbo cars, built houses than some who earns N70,000 minimum wage @$40 today but are struggling to eat one meal a day.

Frankly, I cannot follow your contradictory defense. It’s full of inconsistencies and excuses, not facts.

Ok let me put it in an easier to understand form. If no VAT and CIT collection today then states would be receiving less than or around forty percent of what they are receiving compared to 2022 when those revenue did not exist

lawani:
I have corrected you and if you are too pompous to take corrections at least people reading the thread will not be carried away by your emotion driven conclusions. The achievement of the Tinubu government is freeing the nation from oil dependence. Creating CIT, VAT and etc as the main government revenue sources. That is his achievement. If no oil today Nigeria will not collapse but if no oil under Buhari, Nigeria would have collapsed immediately. Nobody has been able to do that for decades. He did it in Lagos and has now done it in Abuja. Who do you now give the credit?

Of course, you said something meaningful for the first time. People who are not blinded by sentiment can clearly see the points in both arguments.

I also noticed how cleverly you shifted the discussion from state allocations to the exploitative tax regime which I also have serious issues with.

Since you clearly believe so much in this evil tax reform that’s designed to tax the very poor for politicians to have more than enough to steal with impunity, maybe I should ask you the same question I asked Oloyede, perhaps you can answer on his behalf as part of your job description defending arrant nonsense: “₦150k a month, ₦70k gone to transport, a family of four, how exactly are we supposed to survive without stealing under your ‘tax reform,’ or was this drafted in some soulless, air-conditioned fantasy?”

Yes, you’re right: Tinubu has been able to increase Lagos State’s revenue, but he has also expanded its debt profile. The same model is now being applied to Nigeria. Think about it: Lagos, the richest state in the country, is also the most indebted, with a debt portfolio exceeding N1 trillion. A state in Nigeria owing over a trillion naira that is staggering. Some of you may need to take a moment and travel to other states in Nigeria and see first hand developments with meager revenue. Pls visit Akwa Ibom state and see developments. Perhaps you will start questioning our Lagos governments what they have accomplished with all the revenue and the inexplicable loans with absolutely nothing to show for it.

Higher revenue doesn’t automatically prevent borrowing. And people like you, who defend leaders without demanding accountability, are the ones enabling public funds misappropriation and embezzlement.

ibabz:
Of course, you said something meaningful for the first time. People who are not blinded by sentiment can clearly see the points in both arguments.

I also noticed how cleverly you shifted the discussion from state allocations to the exploitative tax regime which I also have serious issues with.

Since you clearly believe so much in this evil tax reform that’s designed to tax the very poor for politicians to have more than enough to steal with impunity, maybe I should ask you the same question I asked Oloyede, perhaps you can answer on his behalf as part of your job description defending arrant nonsense: “₦150k a month, ₦70k gone to transport, a family of four, how exactly are we supposed to survive without stealing under your ‘tax reform,’ or was this drafted in some soulless, air-conditioned fantasy?”

Yes, you’re right: Tinubu has been able to increase Lagos State’s revenue, but he has also expanded its debt profile. The same model is now being applied to Nigeria. Think about it: Lagos, the richest state in the country, is also the most indebted, with a debt portfolio exceeding N1 trillion. A state in Nigeria owing over a trillion naira that is staggering. Some of you may need to take a moment and travel to other states in Nigeria and see first hand developments with meager revenue. Pls visit Akwa Ibom state and see developments. Perhaps you will start questioning our Lagos governments what they have accomplished with all the revenue and the inexplicable loans with absolutely nothing to show for it.

Higher revenue doesn’t automatically prevent borrowing. And people like you, who defend leaders without demanding accountability, are the ones enabling public funds misappropriation and embezzlement.

Don't deviate from the OP. Has the allocations to states increased or not? Since you have now agreed, it means case closed. Open another thread to start another claim about something you don't understand. Kids loose all over the place

lawani:
Why are you now insulting me? Are you that ill mannered? You can't use CBN rates for calculation when people pay double. You can't even use market rates because Buhari was disturbing it by borrowing dollars heavily just to change to naira and thereby flooding the forex market with dollars to prop up the Naira. Do you understand now? I doubt you ever can.

If the exchange rate you use is faulty then all your base crumbles. If you had common sense you would understand

You actually can
At least some people can get that dollar at that same official rate
Banks,manufacturers,airlines and the likes
Why do you think inflation increased after dollar subsidy was removed
Would there have been any inflation if it had no impact like you claimed
Ordinary items increased
Airline fees doibled within a week, this is something i have personal experience of

Stop trying to be clever by half and being dishonest

lawani:
Don't deviate from the OP. Has the allocations to states increased or not? Since you have now agreed, it means case closed. Open another thread to start another claim about something you don't understand. Kids loose all over the place

I now understand your comprehension skills but unfortunately doesn’t worth my time.

In allocation, they will prefer to be in naira.
But in debt, they will want it to be in dollars.
Strategy or fraud.

ibabz:
Pls compare the debt profile of those states during Jonathan, Buhari and Tinubu. Perhaps you may understand why it seems they can when in actual fact they are borrowing to pay salaries.

Can you provide evidence there are states borrowing to pay salaries?

Parachoko:
Can you provide evidence there are states borrowing to pay salaries?

Largest state debtors (ongoing borrowing structure)

As of 2025:
• Lagos State → ~₦2.49 trillion total debt
• Kaduna State → ~₦1.5 trillion
• Rivers, Delta, FCT also among top debt holders

ibabz:
One of the “big wins” constantly advertised by this administration is that state governments now receive more allocation than ever before. And somehow, whenever anyone asks a simple question about accountability, like what exactly all these loans have achieved in the lives of citizens, the conversation magically shifts.

Suddenly, it’s no longer about federal responsibility. It becomes: “But states are getting more money now!”

We are told, repeatedly, that allocations have “increased.” But this has quietly become one of the most misleading narratives in recent times.

Yes, allocations in naira have increased.
But when you factor in inflation and the collapse of the exchange rate, states are actually receiving far less value than before.

So the real question is simple:
Has state allocation truly increased or does it just look that way on paper?

Let’s step away from emotions and look at the numbers.

2014 (Before the decline began)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦600 – ₦700 billion
Exchange rate: ₦165/$1
Dollar value: $3.6 – $4.2 billion per month

2022 (Before the current administration)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦700 – ₦800 billion
Exchange rate: ₦430/$1
Dollar value: $1.6 – $1.9 billion per month

2025 (Current reality)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦1.1 – ₦1.3 trillion
Exchange rate: ₦1,500/$1
Dollar value: $730 – $860 million per month

At first glance, the naira figures look impressive. Trillions instead of billions, it sounds like massive growth.

But in real terms, the value has collapsed.

So when it is said that “allocations have increased,” it is technically correct but economically misleading.

This is a simple arithmetic: while FAAC has increased in naira terms, its real value has dropped by over 75–80% since 2014.

Meanwhile:
Government borrowing is at unprecedented levels
States are receiving less real value than ever
The cost of governance has risen sharply

And yet, one uncomfortable question remains:

Why are state governors not speaking up about this reality?

Are they unable to see the difference, or is there something else at play?

To make matters worse, while allocations have lost value, the burden on citizens has increased. The minimum wage, for instance, has effectively dropped from over $100 in 2014 to barely $40 in 2026.

Where exactly has all the borrowed money gone after three years without even a single block of classroom to point to?

And those “savings” from subsidy removal, where exactly are they hiding? Because from everything we can see and verify, they’re clearly not with the state governments… and definitely not reflected in the lives of ordinary citizens.

These are the questions many Nigerians are still waiting to have answered.

Iree o!

+
Aside from the forex rate change, consider the actual inflation on ground and you will see that the whole thing is a mirage.

Parachoko:
Can you provide evidence there are states borrowing to pay salaries?

https://businessday.ng/life/article/despite-record-faac-windfalls-states-sink-deeper-into-debt-poverty-worsens/

Do you need more evidence?

Parachoko:
Can you provide evidence there are states borrowing to pay salaries?

By now VAT and CIT should be close to seventy percent of revenue from a negligible percentage before Tinubu. It is therefore strange that so called educated people think allocations to states did not increase. Does the constitution allow the President to keep to the FG the states' statutory share of revenue?. States have the largest share of VAT for instance. It is a lack of basic intelligence that is the problem of many

ibabz:
https://businessday.ng/life/article/despite-record-faac-windfalls-states-sink-deeper-into-debt-poverty-worsens/

Do you need more evidence?

You haven't still provide any evidence any state in Nigeria can't pay salaries neither have you provide evidence any state is borrowing to pay salaries.

In 2022, at least, 12 states in Nigeria were owing salaries. See the evidence below

https://budgit.org/budgit_in_the_news/12-states-owing-salaries-budgit-condemns-non-payment-of-workers-remuneration/

Now you provide evidence a state is borrowing to pay salary

ibabz:
https://businessday.ng/life/article/despite-record-faac-windfalls-states-sink-deeper-into-debt-poverty-worsens/

Do you need more evidence?

You haven't shown any evidence any of the state in Nigeria is borrowing to pay salaries.

In 2015, Buhari had to bail out the states because they were bankrupt.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-33435399

I'm sure you know the meaning of "Bankrupt"