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The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point of the US-Israel war with Iran after Tehran effectively choked off one of the world's most important shipping lanes

A two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on Tuesday included a condition that "safe passage" through the narrow waterway would be guaranteed.

However, vessels in the area have received messages that they would be "targeted and destroyed" if they attempted to cross the strait without permission, and only a few ships have made the journey over the past three days.

By 17:00 BST on 10 April only 19 ships had been tracked passing through the strait since the ceasefire.

Of these, four were tankers carrying either oil, gas or chemicals. The rest are listed as bulk carriers or container ships of various types.

That's based on BBC Verify analysis of ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic. Other ships have made the journey without broadcasting their location.

That compares to an average of 138 ships passing through the strait each day before the conflict started on 28 February.

The disruption to shipping since the conflict began five weeks ago has sent shock waves across the global economy, destabilising energy prices and exposing just how reliant international supply chains are on the channel that connects the Gulf with the Indian Ocean.

Shipping analysts say vessel owners will remain cautious about crossing the strait until the situation becomes clearer.

"Most shipping lines would want to get details and reassurances on what it actually takes to transit and those details are not available," Lars Jensen from Vespucci Maritime told the BBC.

Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List says it has been a "very dangerous" time for ship owners who still face a huge amount of uncertainty.

"We know Iran is essentially still in control of the strait, and the assumption is that ship owners will still need to seek permission from the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]… and how that's going to work is still not clear."

BBC Verify's analysis of the paths taken by the ships shows them taking a northern route through the strait close to Iran's coastline, within its territorial waters.

Prior to the conflict, vessels usually took a more southerly route through the middle of the waterway.

'Nearly 800 ships stuck'

If crossings do resume at a greater pace, Meade expects stranded tankers that are fully loaded with cargo will be the priority.

"You've had nearly 800 ships stuck in there for several weeks. Most of them are now loaded with cargo so the priority is going to be to get them out."

The duration of the ceasefire - set to last two weeks - also brings uncertainty for ships, says Niels Rasmussen, a shipping analyst from BIMCO.

"I doubt there will be a large influx of ships into the Gulf… because they do not want to risk being trapped after the two-week window closes."

Another uncertainty is the possibility of sea mines, says Thomas Kazakos, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping.

"We need to make sure that we have clear confirmation that the safety of navigation for the ships and the seafarers are being agreed," he told BBC Verify.

Toll payments

On top of these concerns, ships face the uncertainty of possibly having to make payments to Iran in order to secure safe passage - following reports that tolls may be a part of the ceasefire deal.

"The Iranian negotiation position seems to be that you need to pay a toll to go through the strait and shipping lines will also be hesitant in going down the path of paying that toll," says Jensen.

You've had nearly 800 ships stuck in there for several weeks. Most of them are now loaded with cargo so the priority is going to be to get them out."

89green:
Trump want to score own goal by blocking strait that has already been blocked

Flangelo12:
Trump the terrorist has said no ships must pass.

Iran agrees with him.

Nwaikpe:
The US now owns the Strait.

Make Iran put body and see.

Nwaikpe:
Las las, America will always have its way.


They will always laugh last.

Shey una laugh say Talibam won Afghanistan?

Flangelo12:
Its way is whatever is winning.

Like whatever Itan says.

tnerro1:
How, Iran don block one side, USA don block the other side. Na the country wey no fit withstand suffering go hear am pass. Between Iran and America, who you think say go fit withstand suffering?

Nwaikpe:
Ok Sir


But as una don deceive Iran to its destruction,
Abeg, our next target is Pakistan and Turkey.

Please start hyping them.

96ACE:
One thing I personally learnt from this war is the power of Leverage

Helinuss:
Why is Iran asking for tolls on international waters. They are truly terrorist

Nwaikpe:
Iran cannot withstand any suffering
Because they don't even know what enjoyment is.



It's an irrelevant state that has been at the forefront of world politics by nothing more than noise.
Israel shut that noise up in 30 seconds.

Flangelo12:
Who is "our"?

African man feeling funky.

Who sabi you?

Wizardslayer:
Trump is currently working on clearing the mines the terrorists islamic regime of Iran has planted in the strait of hormuz.

Only Donald trump and Benjamin netanyahu knows how to handle Iran and radical extremists.

Nwaikpe:
Las las, America will always have its way.


They will always laugh last.

Shey una laugh say Talibam won Afghanistan?
Where is Afghanistan today?

Shey una laugh say Iraq won the war?
Where is Iraq today?

Shey una laugh say Al-Qaeda won the war?
Where is Al-Qaeda today?

War is not about emotions,
It's about fact.

No one can stop you from caliming victory,
The facts speak for themselves.