₦airaland Forum

“When you meet a swordsman, draw your sword: Do not recite poetry to one who is not a poet.” - Robert Greene

Even though I am a thoroughbred 'Obidient', I must say it sternly that getting Tinubu out is more important than getting Peter Obi in.

In fact, if sacrificing Obi's presidency is what it takes to save Nigeria from another four years of Tinubu (God forbid) then that is a small price to pay.

The problem with Obi/Kwankwaso ticket is that, knowing how desperate Tinubu is, he can and will attempt to blatantly rig the election against an 'ibo man', and play up tribal/religious sentiments to douse any tension that might arise from such. Most Nigerians would simply shrug their shoulders and carry on, while Peter Obi himself would he busy singing about 'due process' and challenging the charade in the Court.

Unfortunately, we cannot afford such gentleness at this point in our lives. This is not the time for niceties or for reciting poetry. This is the time to draw our swords.

That is why an Atiku/Obi ticket is IMPERATIVE.

Atiku, being as desperate as Tinubu and being of Northern stock, and knowing that he won the elections, would be able to deploy the level of madness needed to run Tinubu out of town and save Nigerians from this rubbish. And I believe that Peter Obi would inevitably become president sooner than later, during or after his spell as Vice President to Atiku.

No amount of permutation or grammar can dispute this reality.

All Obidients need to understand this and prepare for this.

Go n rest, it's Obi for President or let Tinubu continue

Let's do a simple logical mathematics, Atiku got 7m votes in 2023 at a time when a substantial number of Northern electorates, thanks to Elrufai, agreed that power should head South. This led to 5.6m Northerners voting Tinubu. Fastforward to 2027, with Elrufai under persecution and the performance of Tinubu, a substantial amount of these 5.6m voters will no longer be voting Tinubu. It's a no-brainer that most will now vote Atiku. Atiku will only need marginal votes in the South to be home and dry if he clinches the ticket. In other words, Atiku has barely lost a voter who voted him in 2023 but even if he has in some Southern states like Akwa Ibom, Osun and Bayelsa, he has potentially gained more from Northerners who voted Tinubu in 2023.

In contrast, Tinubu has encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW. Even though he remains unpopular across board. It is clear that he has not gained enough to make up for his lost Northern votes because he has failed to consolidate the Southern electorates genuinely, except getting their elites to his side. Obi has also lost some ground if we are being honest but he remains the undisputed owner of the South if he's on the ballot but he may not pull enough numbers or find enough radicalism to protect his votes in the South. Plus, unlike in 2023, not many outside the SE will be inclined to go vote Obi again just to prove a point if nothing changes.

An Atiku/Obi ticket remains the strongest combination till date. There are also talks about the NDC courting Jonathan to throw his heart in the ring. This further complicates things for Obi and Tinubu.

Hedonisco:
Even though I am a thoroughbred 'Obidient', I must say it sternly that getting Tinubu out is more important than getting Peter Obi in.

In fact, if sacrificing Obi's presidency is what it takes to save Nigeria from another four years of Tinubu (God forbid) then that is a small price to pay.

The problem with Obi/Kwankwaso ticket is that, knowing how desperate Tinubu is, he can and will attempt to blatantly rig the election against an 'ibo man', and play up tribal/religious sentiments to douse any tension that might arise from such. Most Nigerians would simply shrug their shoulders and carry on, while Peter Obi himself would he busy singing about 'due process' and challenging the charade in the Court.

Unfortunately, we cannot afford such gentleness at this point in our lives.

That is why an Atiku/Obi ticket is IMPERATIVE.

Atiku, being as desperate as Tinubu and being of Northern stock, and knowing that he won the elections, would be able to deploy the level of madness needed to run Tinubu out of town and save Nigerians from this rubbish. And I believe that Peter Obi would inevitably become president sooner than later, during or after his spell as Vice President to Atiku.

No amount of permutation or grammar can dispute this reality.

All Obidients need to understand this and prepare for this.

so it's atiku that will save Nigeria?

Same atiku that obj describe in his book "my watch"


Just tell me u can't stand a Yoruba man as president I will understand but don't come with the bullshit that atiku will save Nigeria

SadiqBabaSani:
Go n rest, it's Obi for President or let Tinubu continue

"Obi or nothing" is subtle campaign for Tinubu.

Rigging is a complex term. Whenever you use it in a political discussion, explain the context.

This is important because I noticed that many people are throwing the word around without knowing how it works, including those who know nothing about how elections work in Nigeria.

The north believes this is Atikus time, as it is last chance saloon for him. This is whether you like it or not. An Atiku on the ballot would be Tinubus biggest headache. Tinubu should be wary of an Atiku without a Buhari on the horizon. Even some singing Tinubus mandate in the north are with Atiku. I fully agree that Obi/Kwankwaso stands no chance, no matter how tantalising that prospect might seem.

AMINDA:
Let's do a simple logical mathematics, Atiku got 7m votes in 2023 at a time when a substantial number of Northern electorates, thanks to Elrufai, agreed that power should head South. This led to 5.6m Northerners voting Tinubu. Fastforward to 2027, with Elrufai under persecution and the performance of Tinubu, a substantial amount of these 5.6m voters will no longer be voting Tinubu. It's a no-brainer that most will now vote Atiku. Atiku will only need marginal votes in the South to be home and dry if he clinches the ticket. In other words, Atiku has barely lost a voter who voted him in 2023 but even if he has in some Southern states like Akwa Ibom, Osun and Bayelsa, he has potentially gained more from Northerners who voted Tinubu in 2023.

In contrast, Tinubu has encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW. Even though he remains unpopular across board. It is clear that he has not gained enough to make up for his lost Northern votes because he has failed to consolidate the Southern electorates genuinely, except getting their elites to his side. Obi has also lost some ground if we are being honest but he remains the undisputed owner of the South if he's on the ballot but he may not pull enough numbers or find enough radicalism to protect his votes in the South. Plus, unlike in 2023, not many outside the SE will be inclined to go vote Obi again just to prove a point if nothing changes.

An Atiku/Obi ticket remains the strongest combination till date. There are also talks about the NDC courting Jonathan to throw his heart in the ring. This further complicates things for Obi and Tinubu.

Well to clear some things up. Because aspects of this post sound quite arrogant and detached from reality.

To be clear, Atiku is no Buhari who was a bona fide King of the North with the famed 12 million organic votes that followed him across political party lines and election cycles. But even Buhari with his bloc northern 12 million votes needed more than 'marginal southern votes' to become president. What works for Atiku now is the resounding failure of Tinubu and the tendency of northern voters to vote along ethnic or religious lines. But that's okay.

It will be quite slick but mischievous and disingenuous to claim that Peter Obi has lost ground since the last election, or that Tinubu has "encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW". Is it by conscripting governors into the APC? If that is the case, why don't you say the same about the NW and NE where Tinubu has also snatched most of the governors into the APC? Atiku had some PDP governors in 2023 that helped him get 6.9m votes. Peter Obi had none, and yet got allocated a severely reduced but yet substantial 6.1m. Stop here and think about it.

So you have to be critically objective. Even me as an Obidient, I am being brutally objective objective by advancing the reasons stated here for objecting to Obi/Kwankwaso ticket and championing Atiku/Obi. It would serve no purpose to ascribe unnecessary importance or grandeur to Atiku's position, while subtly belittling Obi's position!

The key point in your post is this: Obi's main weakness is that he will not instigate enough radicalism to protect his votes and raise hell, mainly because of his 'due process' personality, and also because of the lukewarm, cosmopolitan nature of his main voting demographic: SE, SS, Urban Lagos, Abuja, and the Christian North.

This is where Atiku and his northern base will be sorely needed. Atiku will certainly mobilize the already capable and inflammable core northern voting bloc to do the needful to run Tinubu out of town when he wins the election with the Atiku/Obi ticket and Tinubu wants to try rubbish.

Svoboda:
"Obi or nothing" is subtle campaign for Tinubu.

Some sincerely naive Obidients are also in this category, but I agree with you that most people who are vociferous about this online are hidden Tinubu agents.

I pray common sense would prevail and Peter Obi would not allow himself be deceived by closet Tinubu fifth columnists.

Hedonisco:
Well to clear some things up. Because aspects of this post sound quite arrogant and detached from reality.

To be clear, Atiku is no Buhari who was a bona fide King of the North with the famed 12 million organic votes that followed him across political party lines and election cycles. But even Buhari with his bloc northern 12 million votes needed more than 'marginal southern votes' to become president. What works for Atiku now is the resounding failure of Tinubu and the tendency of northern voters to vote along ethnic or religious lines. But that's okay.

It will be quite slick but mischievous and disingenuous to claim that Peter Obi has lost ground since the last election, or that Tinubu has "encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW". Is it by conscripting governors into the APC? If that is the case, why don't you say the same about the NW and NE where Tinubu has also snatched most of the governors into the APC? Atiku had some PDP governors in 2023 that helped him get 6.9m votes. Peter Obi had none, and yet got allocated a severely reduced but yet substantial 6.1m. Stop here and think about it.

So you have to be critically objective. Even me as an Obidient, I am being brutally objective objective by advancing the reasons stated here for objecting to Obi/Kwankwaso ticket and championing Atiku/Obi. It would serve no purpose to ascribe unnecessary importance or grandeur to Atiku's position, while subtly belittling Obi's position!

The key point in your post is this: Obi's main weakness is that he will not instigate enough radicalism to protect his votes and raise hell, mainly because of his 'due process' personality, and also because of the lukewarm, cosmopolitan nature of his main voting demographic: SE, SS, Urban Lagos, Abuja, and the Christian North.

This is where Atiku and his northern base will be sorely needed. Atiku will certainly mobilize the already capable and inflammable core northern voting bloc to do the needful to run Tinubu out of town when he wins the election with the Atiku/Obi ticket and Tinubu wants to try rubbish.

Atiku has gained more .. while Obi has lost some ..

This is fact

South can’t outvote North.

AMINDA:
Let's do a simple logical mathematics, Atiku got 7m votes in 2023 at a time when a substantial number of Northern electorates, thanks to Elrufai, agreed that power should head South. This led to 5.6m Northerners voting Tinubu. Fastforward to 2027, with Elrufai under persecution and the performance of Tinubu, a substantial amount of these 5.6m voters will no longer be voting Tinubu. It's a no-brainer that most will now vote Atiku. Atiku will only need marginal votes in the South to be home and dry if he clinches the ticket. In other words, Atiku has barely lost a voter who voted him in 2023 but even if he has in some Southern states like Akwa Ibom, Osun and Bayelsa, he has potentially gained more from Northerners who voted Tinubu in 2023.

In contrast, Tinubu has encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW. Even though he remains unpopular across board. It is clear that he has not gained enough to make up for his lost Northern votes because he has failed to consolidate the Southern electorates genuinely, except getting their elites to his side. Obi has also lost some ground if we are being honest but he remains the undisputed owner of the South if he's on the ballot but he may not pull enough numbers or find enough radicalism to protect his votes in the South. Plus, unlike in 2023, not many outside the SE will be inclined to go vote Obi again just to prove a point if nothing changes.

An Atiku/Obi ticket remains the strongest combination till date. There are also talks about the NDC courting Jonathan to throw his heart in the ring. This further complicates things for Obi and Tinubu.

How many number of votes could El-rufai garner for Ahmed Tinubu in 2023 presidential election. I even have regard for Ganduje during the last presidential election than El-rufai that has been decimated.....

seunowa:
How many number of votes could El-rufai garner for Ahmed Tinubu in 2023 presidential election. I even have regard for Ganduje during the last presidential election than El-rufai that has been decimated.....

Typical. Nothing surprising. Do you also have regard for Obi than you do for Sanwo-olu, Gbajabiamila, Fashola, Obasa and Tinubu himself? Because they couldn't deliver Lagos despite Tinubu being on the ballot. Tinubu only won 3 states in the entire North, yet, he got the highest margin of votes from the region. The hardwork done was not in "delivering" a state. Tinubu couldn't do that for himself! He was able to garner the votes he did in the North due to messaging from the likes of Elrufai like the below at Arewa House. But as expected, he was repaid with treachery and betrayal. There's no one currently doing the "messaging" for Tinubu in the North today and for good reason. No worries, Ganduje will deliver the North to Tinubu come 2027.

MAJOR THROWBACK!

Yet some ingrates say…………… 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Y2KrfifaUp

— Mal. Imran U. Wakili (PULLO) 👑 #iSTANDWITHELRUFAI (@IU_Wakilii) April 17, 2026

AMINDA:
Let's do a simple logical mathematics, Atiku got 7m votes in 2023 at a time when a substantial number of Northern electorates, thanks to Elrufai, agreed that power should head South. This led to 5.6m Northerners voting Tinubu. Fastforward to 2027, with Elrufai under persecution and the performance of Tinubu, a substantial amount of these 5.6m voters will no longer be voting Tinubu. It's a no-brainer that most will now vote Atiku. Atiku will only need marginal votes in the South to be home and dry if he clinches the ticket. In other words, Atiku has barely lost a voter who voted him in 2023 but even if he has in some Southern states like Akwa Ibom, Osun and Bayelsa, he has potentially gained more from Northerners who voted Tinubu in 2023.

In contrast, Tinubu has encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW. Even though he remains unpopular across board. It is clear that he has not gained enough to make up for his lost Northern votes because he has failed to consolidate the Southern electorates genuinely, except getting their elites to his side. Obi has also lost some ground if we are being honest but he remains the undisputed owner of the South if he's on the ballot but he may not pull enough numbers or find enough radicalism to protect his votes in the South. Plus, unlike in 2023, not many outside the SE will be inclined to go vote Obi again just to prove a point if nothing changes.

An Atiku/Obi ticket remains the strongest combination till date. There are also talks about the NDC courting Jonathan to throw his heart in the ring. This further complicates things for Obi and Tinubu.

Very flawed bias analysis,well,comfirmation bias and optimism bias are hallmarks of Politicians characters.So,I dont blame you.
You only considered pro-Tinubu factors in 2022 that has become Anti-Tinubu factors in 2027.You didnt considered Anti-Tinubu factors in 2022 that are now pro-Tinubu factors.No two Election have similar characters.
Next time be more holistic and objective in your analysis.

Hedonisco:
Some sincerely naive Obidients are also in this category, but I agree with you that most people who are vociferous about this online are hidden Tinubu agents.

I pray common sense would prevail and Peter Obi would not allow himself be deceived by closet Tinubu fifth columnists.

Very true sir! It was the same mob action that pushed him away from the pdp in 2022. If not, by now he could have been vp waiting to coronated president in 2031.

Odin13:
Atiku has gained more .. while Obi has lost some ..

This is fact

South can’t outvote North.

"Fact" is what you say it is. Otherwise, why not provide a simple, objective argument to back your claim?

The primary task is to get rid of Tinubu by any means. But that doesn't mean we would keep quiet and allow you guys ascribe more 'importance' to your side of the ticket.

The essential 'fact' now is that Atiku/Obi ticket is the only way to legitimately get rid of Tinubu without the military or a revolution. None is more important than the other, because no half of that ticket can get rid of Tinubu without the other. It is really as simple as that.

Svoboda:
The north believes this is Atikus time, as it is last chance saloon for him. This is whether you like it or not. An Atiku on the ballot would be Tinubus biggest headache. Tinubu should be wary of an Atiku without a Buhari on the horizon. Even some singing Tinubus mandate in the north are with Atiku. I fully agree that Obi/Kwankwaso stands no chance, no matter how tantalising that prospect might seem.

Another flawed analysis.
Those people standing on Tinubu mandate but codedly supporting Atiku,you think they have more to gain from Atiku than those people that are just waiting for Tinubu to finish the rest of his 4 years so they can take over from him?
Next time,tone down your optimism bias.

Basic123:
Very flawed bias analysis,well,comfirmation bias and optimism bias are hallmarks of Politicians characters.So,I dont blame you.
You only considered pro-Tinubu factors in 2022 that has become Anti-Tinubu factors in 2027.You didnt considered Anti-Tinubu factors in 2022 that are now pro-Tinubu factors.No two Election have similar characters.
Next time be more holistic and objective in your analysis.

Once upon a time, Nairaland used to be filled with intellectuals who will do justice to topics by airing theor own opinions and engaging in robust debates. These days, users rather resort to posting rethorics, attacking posters for their opinions and resorting to insults without engaging the topic. It's the bane of the average Nigerian youth today. Intellectualism is dead.

Hedonisco:
Well to clear some things up. Because aspects of this post sound quite arrogant and detached from reality.

To be clear, Atiku is no Buhari who was a bona fide King of the North with the famed 12 million organic votes that followed him across political party lines and election cycles. But even Buhari with his bloc northern 12 million votes needed more than 'marginal southern votes' to become president. What works for Atiku now is the resounding failure of Tinubu and the tendency of northern voters to vote along ethnic or religious lines. But that's okay.

It will be quite slick but mischievous and disingenuous to claim that Peter Obi has lost ground since the last election, or that Tinubu has "encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW". Is it by conscripting governors into the APC? If that is the case, why don't you say the same about the NW and NE where Tinubu has also snatched most of the governors into the APC? Atiku had some PDP governors in 2023 that helped him get 6.9m votes. Peter Obi had none, and yet got allocated a severely reduced but yet substantial 6.1m. Stop here and think about it.

7
The key point in your post is this: Obi's main weakness is that he will not instigate enough radicalism to protect his votes and raise hell, mainly because of his 'due process' personality, and also because of the lukewarm, cosmopolitan nature of his main voting demographic: SE, SS, Urban Lagos, Abuja, and the Christian North.

This is where Atiku and his northern base will be sorely needed. Atiku will certainly mobilize the already capable and inflammable core northern voting bloc to do the needful to run Tinubu out of town when he wins the election with the Atiku/Obi ticket and Tinubu wants to try rubbish.

There is nothing your masters up North will do if Tinubu win second term.

Svoboda:
Very true sir! It was the same mob action that pushed him away from the pdp in 2022. If not, by now he could have been vp waiting to coronated president in 2031.

Not really. I know for a fact that Atiku underrated Obi then and did not explicitly offer him the running mate position in the build up to the primaries. If he had done so, Obi would have stayed. Trust me on that. That was Atiku's most expensive political miscalculation till date.

Even if Obi had stayed back, Atiku wouldn't have picked him as running mate then because Atiku didn't see him as indispensable in the circumstances. Until the switch to LP happened and Obi proved himself.

But that is all in the past. Atiku/Obi has a date with destiny.

AMINDA:
Once upon a time, Nairaland used to be filled with intellectuals who will do justice to topics by airing theor own opinions and engaging in robust debates. These days, users rather resort to posting rethorics, attacking posters for their opinions and resorting to insults without engaging the topic. It's the bane of the average Nigerian youth today. Intellectualism is dead.

Its this arrogance that has made you so parochial and partisan in your worldview.

AMINDA:
Typical. Nothing surprising. Do you also have regard for Obi than you do for Sanwo-olu, Gbajabiamila, Fashola, Obasa and Tinubu himself? Because they couldn't deliver Lagos despite Tinubu being on the ballot. Tinubu only won 3 states in the entire North, yet, he got the highest margin of votes from the region. The hardwork done was not in "delivering" a state. Tinubu couldn't do that for himself. He was able to garner the votes he did in the North due to messaging from the likes of Elrufai like the below. But as expected, he was repaid with treachery and betrayal. No worries, Ganduje will deliver the North to Tinubu come 2027.

MAJOR THROWBACK!

Yet some ingrates say…………… 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Y2KrfifaUp

— Mal. Imran U. Wakili (PULLO) 👑 #iSTANDWITHELRUFAI (@IU_Wakilii) April 17, 2026

You are always sounding frustrated but 2027 presidential election results will bring you to reality. Because sometimes I don't really understand the North you are always talking about. Now, it is good and great that kwankwaso, tambuwal, El-rufai are together with Atiku. Let's see how much important they are among their Fulani and Hausa people...

Though I beg to differ about your post ,I must sincerely acknowledge your plain,direct and manifest erudition......your appreciable objectivity also didn't go unnoticed......

6m votes for obi or whatever millions for atiku is and can never be static......if obi doesn't get the ticket consider 3/4s of those obi votes out the window even if he were to be deputising Trump.....thats huge harvesting ground for tinubu in the entire south and the majorly xtian north.

Has atiku has got the power of tribalism over his northern voters so does tinubu have and will equally benefit from in the SW and need you be reminded,thats the 2nd largest voting block after the NW.......it will be very difficult for atiku to get tge 25% spread across the south as tinubu and apc will push the equity and justice propaganda to the limits that the south should be allowed to have its 8 years and trust me,this will also reverberate in the north as many northern elites have a definite buy in into this,they don't necessarily have to like tinubu's face but this singular factor alone with tribalism will get tinubu half way tobthe finish line,incumbency and power of patronage another 40%.

I totally agree that obi getting the ticket will be a total disaster to the ADC as tinubu will easily sweep him aside.

On el rufai and the superfluous gargantuan influence many of you guys are always quick to attach to him is nothing but incorrect......despite all the supposed influence you arogate to him,el rufai as gov of kaduna state in 23 got just 29% of the votes for tinubu,lower than bauchi a non apc state and just a percentage higher than Gombe another apc state which tinubu also lost but can be excused for being from atiku's region......el rufai had the lowest vote percentage in the entire NW and many of these tinubu allies in that region are still very committed to his course.

Let me allow you juxtapose my points and I assure you, it will be a pleasure.

BATified2023:
so it's atiku that will save Nigeria?

Same atiku that obj describe in his book "my watch"


Just tell me u can't stand a Yoruba man as president I will understand but don't come with the bullshit that atiku will save Nigeria

OBJ also described Tinubu with the below in the same "My Watch", but you continue to support him. Are you doing so because he's your tribesman?

Svoboda:
The north believes this is Atikus time, as it is last chance saloon for him. This is whether you like it or not. An Atiku on the ballot would be Tinubus biggest headache. Tinubu should be wary of an Atiku without a Buhari on the horizon. Even some singing Tinubus mandate in the north are with Atiku. I fully agree that Obi/Kwankwaso stands no chance, no matter how tantalising that prospect might seem.

Sorry, which North?

SmartPolician:
Rigging is a complex term. Whenever you use it in a political discussion, explain the context.

This is important because I noticed that many people are throwing the word around without knowing how it works, including those who know nothing about how elections work in Nigeria.

75% of registered voters refused to get off their asses and vote and are now crying rigging after Tinubu won with a mere 10m votes!

Lifestone:
Sorry, which North?

The North that gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. Traditionally, the NE and NW vote one-way but in 2023, they altered their voting pattern and splitted their votes 3-ways between Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso to accommodate Tinubu. Northcentral will always get split no matter the permutation and in 2023, all three major candidates got over a million votes each from the region. Tinubu's win in the NC was marginal. The Christians in the North largely voted Obi in 2023 and while this may appear to have changed, it remains dicey for Tinubu and may quickly change if he goes ahead with a muslim-muslim ticket while other parties balance their ticket. The perceived support Tinubu currently enjoys among Christians in the NC is because he has tacitly implied that he will be conceding the VP ticket to the middlebelt come 2027.

AMINDA:
Typical. Nothing surprising. Do you also have regard for Obi than you do for Sanwo-olu, Gbajabiamila, Fashola, Obasa and Tinubu himself? Because they couldn't deliver Lagos despite Tinubu being on the ballot. Tinubu only won 3 states in the entire North, yet, he got the highest margin of votes from the region. The hardwork done was not in "delivering" a state. Tinubu couldn't do that for himself! He was able to garner the votes he did in the North due to messaging from the likes of Elrufai like the below at Arewa House. But as expected, he was repaid with treachery and betrayal. No worries, Ganduje will deliver the North to Tinubu come 2027.

MAJOR THROWBACK!

Yet some ingrates say…………… 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Y2KrfifaUp

— Mal. Imran U. Wakili (PULLO) 👑 #iSTANDWITHELRUFAI (@IU_Wakilii) April 17, 2026

How come your el rufai only got 29% of his kaduna's votes for tinubu as a seating gov lower than bauchi a pdp state.....el rufai got the lowest margin for tinubu as an apc state just second to Gombe which can be excused for being in same region atiku is from........el rufai got the lowest margin from the NW,lower than sokoto a pdp state at the time.......you can equally pretend not to take note of the oblivious fact all tinubu's allies in the NW are still with him,how many can atiku boast of in the south with any meaningful influence except obi or maybe aregbesola.....obi's votes are considered lost already if he isn't the principal candidate,obi cannot give anyone 100k votes if he isn't on the ballot as the principal candidate, anambra and fct council elections proved that beyond doubt.....aregbe on the other hand will be overwhelmed by the etnic card tinubu's people will pull thereby having pretty insignificant impact to atiku's course.

Lithiumite:
Though I beg to differ about your post ,I must sincerely acknowledge your plain,direct and manifest erudition......your appreciable objectivity also didn't go unnoticed......

6m votes for obi or whatever millions for atiku is and can never be static......if obi doesn't get the ticket consider 3/4s of those obi votes out the window even if he were to be deputising Trump.....thats huge harvesting ground for tinubu in the entire south and the majorly xtian north.

Has atiku has got the power of tribalism over his northern voters so does tinubu have and will equally benefit from in the SW and need you be reminded,thats the 2nd largest voting block after the NW.......it will be very difficult for atiku to get tge 25% spread across the south as tinubu and apc will push the equity and justice propaganda to the limits that the south should be allowed to have its 8 years and trust me,this will also reverberate in the north as many northern elites have a definite buy in into this,they don't necessarily have to like tinubu's face but this singular factor alone with tribalism will get tinubu half way tobthe finish line,incumbency and power of patronage another 40%.

I totally agree that obi getting the ticket will be a total disaster to the ADC as tinubu will easily sweep him aside.

On el rufai and the superfluous gargantuan influence many of you guys are always quick to attach to him is nothing but incorrect......despite all the supposed influence you arogate to him,el rufai as gov of kaduna state in 23 got just 29% of the votes for tinubu,lower than bauchi a non apc state and just a percentage higher than Gombe another apc state which tinubu also lost but can be excused for being from atiku's region......el rufai had the lowest vote percentage in the entire NW and many of these tinubu allies in that region are still very committed to his course.

Let me allow you juxtapose my points and I assure you, it will be a pleasure.

The claim that Obi would lose votes by deputizing Atiku is laughable.

The Atiku/Obi ticket polled 11.2 million votes in 2019, against the 'almighty' Buhari’s 15 million votes. For context, the despicable Tinubu scavenged, burgled, artificed and smuggled mere 8 million votes from all corners of the underworld to become a barely legitimate president, yet he is doing the most. Lol.

The simple question to ask is: If any Obi supporter refuses to vote for an Atiku/Obi ticket, what are the options? Vote for Tinubu or abstain? To be sure, abstaining is an indirect vote for Tinubu.

In Nigeria of today, nobody outside the core South West (excluding Urban Lagos), Kwara and Kogi states) would rather vote for Tinubu than an Atiku/Obi ticket. Take that to the bank.

Any high sounding political talk about 'Southern Presidency' does not resonate with the average non-Yoruba voter who can objectively see how Tinubu has destroyed the economy and just wants him to get out. Don't let anyone deceive you.

Besides, everyone can see the extreme yorubalization of the Federal Government and so it would be a joke to tell the average person in the South East or South South to support a so-called 'Southern Presidency' that has alienated them more than any Northern presidency ever did.

Lithiumite:
How come your el rufai only got 29% of his kaduna's votes for tinubu as a seating gov lower than bauchi a pdp state.....el rufai got the lowest margin for tinubu as an apc state just second to Gombe which can be excused for being in same region atiku is from........el rufai got the lowest margin from the NW,lower than sokoto a pdp state at the time.......you can equally pretend not to take note of the oblivious fact all tinubu's allies in the NW are still with him,how many can atiku boast of in the south with any meaningful influence except obi or maybe aregbesola.....obi's votes are considered lost already if he isn't the principal candidate,obi cannot give anyone 100k votes if he isn't on the ballot as the principal candidate, anambra and fct council elections proved that beyond doubt.....aregbe on the other hand will be overwhelmed by the etnic card tinubu's people will pull thereby having pretty insignificant impact to atiku's course.

For the same reason that Tinubu lost Lagos. In the North, Kaduna is perhaps the only cosmopolitan state just like Lagos due to its urbanity and high population of Christians and other settlers from other tribes. This is unlike other Northern states that are very conservative. Despite this, Kaduna remains the capital of Northern politics and it sets the pace for other states. In 2023, Atiku (an influential Northerner in his own right) got 500k+ votes while Tinubu got 400k votes and Kwankwaso got 150k votes. Southern Kaduna revolted against muslim-muslim ticket and largely voted Obi who got 200k votes. Fastforward to 2027 and Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso and Elrufai are now in the same party. Numbers don't lie.

Now, having said that, tell us why a combination of Sanwo-olu, Gbajabiamila, Fashola, Obasa and Tinubu failed to deliver Lagos despite Tinubu being on the ballot. Is it because they were not influential in their states and their influence was overrated? Why do you expect the people of Kaduna to love Tinubu more than he's loved at home? Aside Lagos and maybe Ibadan, what other SW state delivered a higher margin of votes to Tinubu than he got in Kaduna?

Hedonisco:
Not really. I know for a fact that Atiku underrated Obi then and did not explicitly offer him the running mate position in the build up to the primaries. If he had done so, Obi would have stayed. Trust me on that. That was Atiku's most expensive political miscalculation till date.

Even if Obi had stayed back, Atiku wouldn't have picked him as running mate then because Atiku didn't see him as indispensable in the circumstances. Until the switch to LP happened and Obi proved himself.

But that is all in the past. Atiku/Obi has a date with destiny.

Atiku should have gone back to the result spreadsheet of the 2019 elections to view the numbers Obi generated from the southeast and southsouth. If he did that, he could have made that huge miscalculation. Perhaps he preferred a sitting Gov as running mate.

My only issue with Obi as candidate of ADC is simple

Supreme Court would invalidate his candidacy n nothing would happen

But if atiku is the candidate with North behind him? Them no born supreme Court well

Atiku is not a bad candidate but he needs to sale himself to obedients

mrvitalis:
My only issue with Obi as candidate of ADC is simple

Supreme Court would invalidate his candidacy n nothing would happen

But if atiku is the candidate with North behind him? Them no born supreme Court well

Atiku is not a bad candidate but he needs to sale himself to obedients

This is also another dimension of the same thing I'm saying. Tinubu can objectively 'chance' Obi, and nothing would happen to be honest, because the man is decent and his followers are also the cosmopolitan, 'no violence' kind.

Atiku would be desperate enough to raise hell. And the northern voting bloc take no prisoners and make no pretence about being civil'. Especially when they know they won. Tinubu would meet a disgraceful end if he attempts any rubbish and he would not dare.

We need a Yin - Yang combination which Atiku/Obi represents. And that's the only antidote that would work against a cancerous phenomenon like Tinubu.