Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? - Politics

Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? - Politics - Nairaland

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Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by CasNova(op): 12:24pm On May 11

Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Win Presidency?

Yes — an Obi–Kwankwaso combination could become one of the strongest opposition tickets in Nigeria, especially if they successfully unite southern urban voters with northern grassroots support.

But “could win” is different from “likely to win.”

Here’s why many people think the combination is politically dangerous to the ruling APC:

Peter Obi has strong support among many young voters, professionals, and southern urban populations.

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has a loyal political structure in Kano and influence in parts of northern Nigeria through the Kwankwasiyya movement.

In 2023, opposition votes were split among Obi, Atiku, and Kwankwaso. Analysts often argue that a united opposition would have made the election far tighter.

Supporters believe combining the “Obidient” movement and “Kwankwasiyya” network could create a rare North–South coalition. Several political reports and discussions have focused on this possibility.

But there are still serious problems:
Structure and nationwide reach
Winning Nigeria is not just about popularity. You need governors, party agents, state structures, funding, and strong grassroots coordination across all regions.
Northern arithmetic Kwankwaso is influential, especially in Kano, but Kano alone is not enough to guarantee broad northern dominance.

Some analysts argue the alliance may still struggle in parts of the North-West and North-East.

Nigerian opposition alliances often collapse because of ambition, zoning disagreements, and mistrust. Recent reports already show fractures among opposition groups.

Tinubu’s incumbency advantage

Bola Ahmed Tinubu controls the federal power structure and has one of the strongest political networks in modern Nigerian politics. Incumbents are historically difficult to remove in Nigeria.
If an Obi–Kwankwaso ticket happens and:
the economy remains difficult,
opposition parties avoid fragmentation,
turnout among young voters becomes massive, and they build strong northern alliances beyond Kano, then OK has bright chance.

But if all these factors are not in place, as the situation is right now, Tinubu would win again.

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Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by CasNova(op): 2:35pm On May 11

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is one of the most influential northern politicians in Nigeria, especially in the North-West. His influence is built less on elite media popularity and more on long-term grassroots organization, loyalty networks, and regional political identity.

Here are some key facts about his influence:

He built one of Nigeria’s strongest personal political movements

Kwankwaso created the “Kwankwasiyya” movement — a highly organized political network with loyal followers identifiable by their red caps. The movement is especially powerful in Kano and parts of the North-West.

Unlike many politicians whose support disappears after leaving office, Kwankwaso maintained a devoted base for years.

Kano gives him enormous political relevance

Kano is one of Nigeria’s most politically important states because it has one of the largest voter populations in the country.

Any politician who can strongly influence Kano automatically becomes nationally relevant.

In the 2023 presidential election, Kwankwaso won Kano State under the NNPP platform, despite competing against the two biggest parties, APC and PDP. That result showed he still commands major grassroots loyalty.

He has survived multiple political realignments

Kwankwaso has remained politically relevant through several administrations and party changes:

Former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives

Former Governor of Kano State

Former Minister of Defence

Former Senator

Many politicians lose relevance after leaving office, but he repeatedly returns to national prominence.

He is stronger at grassroots politics than media politics

His influence is often underestimated outside northern Nigeria because:

he is less dominant on social media than politicians like Peter Obi,

and he receives less international media attention.

But northern grassroots mobilization can be extremely powerful during elections.

He can affect national election outcomes even without winning

In Nigeria, a politician does not need to win the presidency to become a “kingmaker.”

Kwankwaso’s voter base can:

split votes,

strengthen coalitions,

weaken rivals,

or determine who wins in tight contests.

This is why larger parties often seek alliances with him before major elections.

His influence has limits

Despite his importance, there are also realities:

His strongest influence is concentrated in Kano and parts of the North-West.

He does not currently dominate all northern political blocs.

Some northern political elites are not aligned with him.

His national appeal outside the North is more limited compared to some rivals.

Why politicians still take him seriously

Even critics usually admit three things:

he has a disciplined political base,

he has proven electoral strength in Kano,

and he can shift national political calculations.

That is why discussions about future opposition alliances in Nigeria almost always include him.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by raumdeuter: 2:39pm On May 11

If you want to be delusional, the answer is YES
If you want to be realistic, The simple answer is NO

12 Likes 3 Shares

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Kanwulia: 2:45pm On May 11

Yes! Any ticket can the presidential seat AGAINST APC in any FREE AND FAIR ELECTION.

Only by RIGGING Fact!✅

APC can NEVER WIN if elections are free and fair. Nigeria REJECTS APC.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by guass(m): 3:06pm On May 11

OK will be announced winner before noon on election day.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by CasNova(op): 7:17pm On May 11

Will the North buy into Peter Obi’s proposed four-year arrangement, which promises a return of power to the region after a single term, despite the fact that he would still be constitutionally eligible to seek another four years in office? Or would it rather support Tinubu, who, if re-elected in 2027, would be constitutionally unable to contest again in 2031, thereby making the return of power to the North more certain?

Which option will the North ultimately view as safer and more predictable: Tinubu’s constitutionally fixed exit timeline or Obi’s voluntary one-term pledge?

Time will tell what the answers will be for these potent questions.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Sheuns(m): 7:44pm On May 11

Short Answer is No.

I personally don’t see that ticket winning. I say this based on the numbers both of them pulled in 2023.

They may poll 7M+ votes based on their last outings, this time around, it may be higher or lower.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Kukutente23: 8:20pm On May 11

If Atiku is not on the ballot, No
If Atiku is on the ballot, Maybe

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by numericalguy(m): 11:01pm On May 11*

Short answer is NO.

It takes a high level of delusional wishes for anyone to even conteplate that an Obi/Kwankwaso can defeat an incombent Tinubu.

Kwankwaso will never deputise Obi.

Kwankwaso knows he and Obi are not likely to win in 2027 but he wants to keep himself actively in every one's mind for the 2031 when power will shift to the north.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by aswani(m): 11:20pm On May 11

They can come third which is a really good result for them.

Their third place would be confirmed by 12noon.

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Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by LottiOk: 11:25pm On May 11

numericalguy:
Short answer is NO.

It takes a high level of delusional wishes for anyone to even conteplate that an Obi/Kwankwaso can defeat an incombent Tinubu.

Kwankwaso will never deputise Obi.

Kwankwaso knows he and Obi are not likely to win in 2027 but he wants to keep himself actively in every one's mide for the 2031 when power will shift to the north.

2 Likes

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Kanwulia: 4:50pm On May 12

The North will not be fooled!!!👍🏽👍🏽👍🏽

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMZ5dtRYgfg?si=4wrnBvHt0RXDdIvx

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Kanwulia: 4:59pm On May 12

numericalguy:
Short answer is NO.

It takes a high level of delusional wishes for anyone to even conteplate that an Obi/Kwankwaso can defeat an incombent Tinubu.

Kwankwaso will never deputise Obi.

Kwankwaso knows he and Obi are not likely to win in 2027 but he wants to keep himself actively in every one's mind for the 2031 when power will shift to the north.

Perhaps, if the certified Jagabandit did not FAIL WOEFULLY, you would have a point. Because the APC government is a SCAM!

Kwankwasiyyyyyyya don change mouth o!😀

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hj5sk14cmGQ?si=75rNo62wnU6xM08a

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Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Tenses: 7:32pm On May 12

Sheuns:
Short Answer is No.

I personally don’t see that ticket winning. I say this based on the numbers both of them pulled in 2023.

They may poll 7M+ votes based on their last outings, this time around, it may be higher or lower.

tinubu have become so unpopular in the north and south while PO has become more popular. In south West core yoruba are eager for igbo presidency so are the north.

Kwankwaso on the other hand will attract sympathy votes in the entire north as a result of the injustice meted at him by abbas betrayal.

OK ticket will win 2027 even if tinubu rigs.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Kanwulia: 11:53pm On May 12

Yes we can!!!👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Counterigbolies: 7:01am On May 13

CasNova:
Will the North buy into Peter Obi’s proposed four-year arrangement, which promises a return of power to the region after a single term, despite the fact that he would still be constitutionally eligible to seek another four years in office? Or would it rather support Tinubu, who, if re-elected in 2027, would be constitutionally unable to contest again in 2031, thereby making the return of power to the North more certain?

Which option will the North ultimately view as safer and more predictable: Tinubu’s constitutionally fixed exit timeline or Obi’s voluntary one-term pledge?

Time will tell what the answers will be for these potent questions.

so u believe the north will believe obi will use 4 years?

Same man that vowed with his life n that of his family not to leave apga but still left

Don't worry, your eye go over clear

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Counterigbolies: 7:05am On May 13

Tenses:
tinubu have become so unpopular in the north and south while PO has become more popular. In south West core yoruba are eager for igbo presidency so are the north.

Kwankwaso on the other hand will attract sympathy votes in the entire north as a result of the injustice meted at him by abbas betrayal.

OK ticket will win 2027 even if tinubu rigs.

deep down u know u are deceiving yourselves

Even when kwankwanso was on d ballot, he only has votes in kano

Aside Kano where can kwankwanso win?

U didn't even add d way northerners see d south east with their seccesionist agenda?

That ticket will b very very easy to demarket in d north coupled with the yes daddy audio of obi

Many of u don't know anything

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by simpleseyi: 7:39am On May 13

Let them add Nnamdi Azikiwe, Akex Ekwueme, Odumegwu Ojukwu, Tafawa Balewa, Ahmadu Bello and Aminu Kano in a joint ticket with Obi and Kwankwaso , Tinubu will humiliate them all at the polls.

1 Like 1 Share

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by sirchim(m): 11:51am On May 13

Yes! Only in a FREE and FAIR election. Even the yeye jagaban that couldn't win in Lagos and Abuja, is always aware of that. If na lie, ask am whether him collect, home and away, for last election or not🤣😀😜

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by favor914: 12:07pm On May 13

Kanwulia:
Yes! Any ticket can the presidential seat AGAINST APC in any FREE AND FAIR ELECTION.

Only by RIGGING Fact!✅

APC can NEVER WIN if elections are free and fair. Nigeria REJECTS APC.

raumdeuter said,
If you want to be delusional, the answer is YES
If you want to be realistic, The simple answer is NO.

1 Like 1 Share

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by favor914: 12:10pm On May 13

sirchim:
Yes! Only in a FREE and FAIR election. Even the yeye jagaban that couldn't win in Lagos and Abuja, is always aware of that. If na lie, ask am whether him collect, home and away, for last election or not🤣😀😜

Only democratic aligned persons that have been a member of a political party for at least 4 years is eligible to participate in a free & fair election.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Kanwulia: 12:38pm On May 13

favor914:
raumdeuter said,
If you want to be delusional, the answer is YES
If you want to be realistic, The simple answer is NO.

Criminal reality? You must love Nigeria the way it is. That juju must FAIL!✅ I prefer to live in a delusional state that will bring joy to ALL NIGERIANS. The criminal reality must be abolished! Enough is enough.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Ballmer: 1:09pm On May 13

As Peter Obi stated how long it will take him to fix electricity ?! At least atinubi promised how long we can hold him to, how long do we hold Obi to ?!

Kanwulia:
Perhaps, if the certified Jagabandit did not FAIL WOEFULLY, you would have a point. Because the APC government is a SCAM!

Kwankwasiyyyyyyya don change mouth o!😀

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hj5sk14cmGQ?si=75rNo62wnU6xM08a

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Ballmer: 1:12pm On May 13

You do not have to contribute when you lack what it takes to contribute intelligently to the discussion.

Kanwulia:
Yes! Any ticket can the presidential seat AGAINST APC in any FREE AND FAIR ELECTION.

Only by RIGGING Fact!✅

APC can NEVER WIN if elections are free and fair. Nigeria REJECTS APC.

1 Like 1 Share

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by lamentor78(m): 1:16pm On May 13

Nigerians and their stupid jargons , free and fair election.....i dont know the election that was held in Nigeria since indepedent that is free and fair, Nigerians always talking rubbish when things dont favour them . 2015 Kano state record the highest child voting by foreign obeservers ....still nothing happened ....free and fair my foot

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Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Kanwulia: 1:50pm On May 13

Ballmer:
As Peter Obi stated how long it will take him to fix electricity ?! At least atinubi promised how long we can hold him to, how long do we hold Obi to ?!

Obi is a wise man. Tinubu is extremely foolish.

Obi promises to fight corruption. You can’t promise what you can’t fulfill. Especially, if you do not understand why the power sector has failed since OBJ.

By fighting CORRUPTION, all other promises can be fulfilled. Corruption plagues the oil and power sector. No empty promises.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Omowale2023(m): 2:55pm On May 13

No, it can't win 2027 elections, it can only win 2031.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by Ballmer: 4:51pm On May 13

Exactly bro Peter Obi fought corruption looring 250 million monthly from Anambrafofer ro his house at aerodome

He then fought corruption looting Anambra fund into his daughter pandora account after he was caught in Lagos loting 250 million monthly.

He continue foughting corruption n not fighting by given billion for Orient petroleum yet 20 years after it as not refrained ordinary water talk more of fuel.

Kanwulia:
Obi is a wise man. Tinubu is extremely foolish.

Obi promises to fight corruption. You can’t promise what you can’t fulfill. Especially, if you do not understand why the power sector has failed since OBJ.

By fighting CORRUPTION, all other promises can be fulfilled. Corruption plagues the oil and power sector. No empty promises.

Re: Can Obi/ Kwankwaso Ticket Really Win The Presidential Election? by haffaze777(m): 5:32pm On May 13

Tenses:
tinubu have become so unpopular in the north and south while PO has become more popular. In south West core yoruba are eager for igbo presidency so are the north.

Kwankwaso on the other hand will attract sympathy votes in the entire north as a result of the injustice meted at him by abbas betrayal.

OK ticket will win 2027 even if tinubu rigs.

Core Yoruba are eager for Igbo president but not tribal bigot Obi.

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