₦airaland Forum

helinues:
Summary. Atiku and president Tinubu wasn't popular in South East in the 2023 election

While Peter Obi is unrecognized in NW and NE

That's purely ethnicity and tribal politics, nothing else, where other tribes were intimidated from voting for candidates of their choice!

DeLaRue:
The minimum number of states a candidate must score 25% of votes in to be declared a winner is 24.

The chances of Mr Atiku scoring 25% in 24 is very slim, almost zero, as I can't think of a single Southern state where ADC will secure 25% of the votes, now that Mr Obi has left the party.

As for NDC, in 2023, Mr Obi and Mr Kwankwaso only secured 25% of the votes in a combined total of 17 states. That means they need an additional 7 states. NDC may secure 25% in Lagos, but nowhere else in the South West, and the North East where ADC will likely dominate. So, the party face a very tall order to reach the required threshold in 24 States.

APC will gain 25% in more Southern States than it did last time, and will secure 25% in almost all North Central states, and in 2 or 3 North East and North West states.

APC is still in poll position for the coming elections. All each Southern APC Governor needs to do is ensure that ADC's doesn't win 25% of the votes in their state.

Let's tell ourselves the truth the day that Obi left the coalition was the day the gave Tinubu the winner.
I don't know what is telling him that Kwankwaso will make the difference.

franchasng:
Nigerians are very funny people.....they keep relying on this recklessly rigged 2023 Presidential election result fabricated to demoralize Peter Obi even when the people under Buhari that did the election result fabrication wonders have confessed, make una continue to de deceive unaselves with fake statistics


Tinubu did not secure any 25% in any Southsouth state, they were all rigged. Rivers state was too obvious....others were ignored....Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Delta......


Tinubu did not get 25% in Benue and Plateau.

Tinubu did not get it in Adamawa.

Did Atiku tell you Tinubu didn't get it in Adamawa? You see how you people are disgracing yourself

dibunotion:
South East no try at all. No other candidates has 25%

Sadly, they won't agree how bigoted that kind of politics is.
Like, PDP that the SE has supported for decades couldn't get 25%. Other candidates didn't have supporters as little as 25% of the voters? We're not talking about winning, 25%.
Yet they want the world to believe there was no opposition votes' suppression and rigging for LP in that region.

They would rather accuse SW of tribalism. Same SW that produced APC candidate, yet gave 2 states to his opponents.

Some things aren't just logical.

blamingthedevil:
South east is the only self loving region

They voted falaae in 1999
They voted obj in 2003
They voted Jonathan twice in 2011 and 2015.
So how are they self-loving?

I'm from the SE religion and won't be voting the Lagos landlord. He's a big threat to what Zik and co fought hard to get but the truth is that Tinubu will get 25% in Ebonyi and Imo while Obi will get 25% in Adamawa and Taraba. I don't see Atiku getting 25% in any Southern State.

Nah North be Obi problem.

helinues:
it's still same same script in South East towards the 2027 election. They won't vote for others except their own which we have no issue with

Time to block me. A reminder that I don't like seeing your posts. You have six hours.

PulaPower:
E clear like sky..

Indeed. Over 30 Governors. 2027 done deal for PBAT. Jokers can continue deluding themselves. Dem no dey telli person my bro. Dem eyes go clear.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOTT9vZ8liA?si=MCnsfpClPPy7cTlJ

chiefolododo:
Was the election free and fair?

Was it not written by Mohamoud JEGA?

So, nah Jega b INEC chairman in 2023 ??

Peacecore:
I'm from the SE religion and won't be voting the Lagos landlord. He's a big threat to what Zik and co fought hard to get but the truth is that Tinubu will get 25% in Ebonyi and Imo while Obi will get 25% in Adamawa and Taraba. I don't see Atiku getting 25% in any Southern State.

At least you are pragmatically truthful. I respect that. Atiku is screwed and I am so happy.

Factually, this is not good enough for OK,,,, if they had stayed the trip would have pulled something better.
Atiku will increase his 25% reach, but beating the incumbent could be an herculean task.

The incumbent will win/get further 25% in more states in 2027 than 2023

onatisi:
i like kwankwanso , he is very intelligent political strategist , he knows his weakness and strong points

True.. He’s truly an intelligent politician. His focus is 2031 not even 2027

He knows very well 2027 is a step board for him, he’s simply using the other fellow to move up

blamingthedevil:
NUMBER OF STATES WHERE LEADING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES SECURED 25%+ OF VALID VOTES — 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION



Source

This statistics is based on rigged election,Consider if election is free and fair

According to EYE NECK rigging stats.

blamingthedevil:
2023
Tinubu : 29 States
Atiku : 21 States
Obi + kwankwaso: 16+ 1= 17 States

I no wan hear "his manhood was stolen" in 2027 o 🙄😌

According to EYE NECK rigging stats

Kwankwaso no get level . An Obi/Atiku would trash Tinubu

jamafa:
So, nah Jega b INEC chairman in 2023 ??

focus on the message.

Mohamoud Yakub

Nword22:
D

But South south is the same people of south east so I don't know the noise about because South south vote same way as south east.

They are same people
Now focus on your brother's in north how they will vote with south west same people.

2023 election result showed clearly that the South South people are totally different from the South East people

Without gov tinubu won despite Buhari the president don’t want him
Now he is in power have all gov at his side lolz

Abeg this is an easy win for president tinubu

I don’t see obi winning north east and north west
He will win Kano and his vote will drop
In south south and south west

LegendHero:
2023 election result showed clearly that the South South people are totally different from the South East people

What made them different did tifnubu won there ... Rivers was rigged we can see by the numbers.

How many Hausa or Yorubas are in Rivers for those strangers to win.

Tell me another storyline.

DeLaRue:
The minimum number of states a candidate must score 25% of votes in to be declared a winner is 24.

The chances of Mr Atiku scoring 25% in 24 states is very slim, if not zero, as I can't think of a single Southern state where ADC will secure 25% of the votes, now that Mr Obi has left the party.

As for NDC, in 2023, Mr Obi and Mr Kwankwaso only secured 25% of the votes in a combined total of 17 states. That means they need an additional 7 states. NDC may secure 25% in Lagos, but it will not anywhere else in the South West, and the North East where ADC will likely dominate. So, the party faces a very tall order to reach the required threshold in 24 States.

APC will gain 25% in more Southern States than it did last time, and will secure 25% in almost all North Central states, and in 2 or 3 North East and North West states.

APC is still in poll position for the coming elections. All each Southern APC Governor needs to do is ensure that ADC's doesn't win 25% of the votes in their state. Even if Mr Atiku wins all 19 Northern States, he will still need to gain 25% of votes in at least 5 Southern states to have a chance of being declared a winner. I don't know about other Southern regions, but in the SW, ADC will struggle to get 5% in any SW State. I could be wrong, but I don't see ADC getting 25% in any SS or SE State. If this scenario plays out, then Mr Atiku cannot be declared President even if he gets 500 million votes in the North.

Mr Obi's withdrawal from ADC has killed the party in the South. ADC leaders know it. That is why they are very bitter and demoralised right now. When they appear on their favorite Arise TV these days, they wear long faces and speak in very low and sad voice. Without Mr Obi, there is no other Southern political heavyweight in ADC that can deliver 25% in any Southern state.

While you’re right that the ADC may not secure a 25% margin in any South-East or even South-South state, I vehemently disagree with the claim that the APC will broaden its margins in the region.

The APC is likely to lose votes massively in the North-West and marginally in the North-East, even with the expected rigging.

The picture looks very grim for the APC in the South-East, regardless of whatever David Umahi tells people. South-East governors cannot substantially influence votes in the region as long as Peter Obi is on the ballot, as was witnessed yesterday in Abakaliki.

The South-South remains somewhat competitive, but the same Obi factor will weaken resistance there as well. Tinubu’s money politics notwithstanding, Nigerians want visible change, and they want it now.

The final battleground is the North-Central. It will be a keen contest there, depending on who rigs the most effectively. My best prognostication is that the region will be split between the APC and the NDC, 6–5 in terms of 25% spread, with Kwara likely being the outlier against the NDC.

If they run the right campaign, the NDC would prevail in Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, and the FCT, while the APC retains Kwara, Niger, and Kogi.

The South-West does not look too favorable for the NDC at the moment. It remains APC territory, although Lagos will continue to be competitive if the opposition resists ethnic intimidation, stands its ground, and protects its votes.

Depending on the direction Seyi Makinde eventually takes politically, the NDC may secure 25% in two South-West states.

If you lose Zaria in an election, you have effectively lost northern Kaduna and, by extension, the bulk of the votes in Kaduna Central.

The obvious imprisonment (not prosecution) of Malam El-Rufai has effectively resulted in an APC loss in Kaduna. The state will likely be cannibalized by both the ADC and the NDC.

The ripple effect will extend into associated voting patterns across the North-West, which could ultimately benefit Atiku Abubakar, if he is allowed to run. Whether that happens may well be decided by Tinubu’s courts.

When one carefully examines the temprature of nothern political elites, some of us are scratching our heads and asking, where is Tinubus pathway to victory in this election, when we consider that 52% of his votes in 2023 came from there?.

maestroferddi:
Oga no dey yarn opata...

So Obi will not be able to get 25% in Edo, Cross River and Rivers?

Why not stick to Baba Ijebu where you are a pro?

Definitely not in Ẹdo, he won't even get 10% there. Rivers split between APC and PDP, nothing for him there either, Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom, who knows.

Nword22:
Someone that is part of eastern region you are saying he won't win there.. it's total strangers like atifku or tifnubu that will win in his backyard...keep dreaming...last time where did others won in south south.

Peter Obi is part of Eastern Region which has nothing to do with South South, except maybe Delta North.

He is going to struggle there this time round.

DeLaRue:
The minimum number of states a candidate must score 25% of votes in to be declared a winner is 24.

The chances of Mr Atiku scoring 25% in 24 states is very slim, if not zero, as I can't think of a single Southern state where ADC will secure 25% of the votes, now that Mr Obi has left the party.

As for NDC, in 2023, Mr Obi and Mr Kwankwaso only secured 25% of the votes in a combined total of 17 states. That means they need an additional 7 states. NDC may secure 25% in Lagos, but it will not anywhere else in the South West, and the North East where ADC will likely dominate. So, the party faces a very tall order to reach the required threshold in 24 States.

APC will gain 25% in more Southern States than it did last time, and will secure 25% in almost all North Central states, and in 2 or 3 North East and North West states.

APC is still in poll position for the coming elections. All each Southern APC Governor needs to do is ensure that ADC's doesn't win 25% of the votes in their state. Even if Mr Atiku wins all 19 Northern States, he will still need to gain 25% of votes in at least 5 Southern states to have a chance of being declared a winner. I don't know about other Southern regions, but in the SW, ADC will struggle to get 5% in any SW State. I could be wrong, but I don't see ADC getting 25% in any SS or SE State. If this scenario plays out, then Mr Atiku cannot be declared President even if he gets 500 million votes in the North.

Mr Obi's withdrawal from ADC has killed the party in the South. ADC leaders know it. That is why they are very bitter and demoralised right now. When they appear on their favorite Arise TV these days, they wear long faces and speak in very low and sad voice. Without Mr Obi, there is no other Southern political heavyweight in ADC that can deliver 25% in any Southern state.

Obedients warned adc. But David mark has always been a fool . Atiku killed pdp with greed. If has allowed he would have killed apc too. But Buhari and tinubu too strong. He killed adc. Instead of stating events, he wanted the spotlight 💡 Obi pulled the rug from under him. He’s nothing now. Keneth and dele momodu can cry thier soul to hell.

aswani:
Peter Obi is part of Eastern Region which has nothing to do with South South, except maybe Delta North.

He is going to struggle there this time round.

lol. Keep deluding yourself. Edo and delta has the strongest obidient movement ever. Mr common sense , mama p. Yesufu, Randy Peter Porcupine , all these people re Obedients that command follower ship. String enough to black abgonayima from coming to ndc. Dey play .

aswani:
Definitely not in Ẹdo, he won't even get 10% there. Rivers split between APC and PDP, nothing for him there either, Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom, who knows.

obi won edo. Like won. Did you know this ? People that declared edo nor be Lagos ? Dey play lol Your eye go clear

ottersberger:
While you’re right that the ADC may not secure a 25% margin in any South-East or even South-South state, I vehemently disagree with the claim that the APC will broaden its margins in the region.

The APC is likely to lose votes massively in the North-West and marginally in the North-East, even with the expected rigging.

The picture looks very grim for the APC in the South-East, regardless of whatever David Umahi tells people. South-East governors cannot substantially influence votes in the region as long as Peter Obi is on the ballot, as was witnessed yesterday in Abakaliki.

The South-South remains somewhat competitive, but the same Obi factor will weaken resistance there as well. Tinubu’s money politics notwithstanding, Nigerians want visible change, and they want it now.

The final battleground is the North-Central. It will be a keen contest there, depending on who rigs the most effectively. My best prognostication is that the region will be split between the APC and the NDC, 6–5 in terms of 25% spread, with Kwara likely being the outlier against the NDC.

If they run the right campaign, the NDC would prevail in Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, and the FCT, while the APC retains Kwara, Niger, and Kogi.

The South-West does not look too favorable for the NDC at the moment. It remains APC territory, although Lagos will continue to be competitive if the opposition resists ethnic intimidation, stands its ground, and protects its votes.

Depending on the direction Seyi Makinde eventually takes politically, the NDC may secure 25% in two South-West states.

If you lose Zaria in an election, you have effectively lost northern Kaduna and, by extension, the bulk of the votes in Kaduna Central.

The obvious imprisonment (not prosecution) of Malam El-Rufai has effectively resulted in an APC loss in Kaduna. The state will likely be cannibalized by both the ADC and the NDC.

The ripple effect will extend into associated voting patterns across the North-West, which could ultimately benefit Atiku Abubakar, if he is allowed to run. Whether that happens may well be decided by Tinubu’s courts.

When one carefully examines the temprature of nothern political elites, some of us are scratching our heads and asking, where is Tinubus pathway to victory in this election, when we consider that 52% of his votes in 2023 came from there?.

I love. the choice of words. Apc think they will win Kano and kaduna. lol. That’s ndc territory now. !!!! CANNIBALISE

O

aswani:
Definitely not in Ẹdo, he won't even get 10% there. Rivers split between APC and PDP, nothing for him there either, Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom, who knows.

Go and play baba Ijebu, this man...

Peter Obi won Edo State the last time and will probably win there again...

When you hear obedients, where does your slow reasoning system think is the epicenter?

Like I said, stick with your baba Ijebu...

Lordhanzo:
obi won edo. Like won. Did you know this ? People that declared edo nor be Lagos ? Dey play lol Your eye go clear

Past tense, he won.

Why did his beloved Akpata not win the gubernatorial elections. There is nothing for him in Edo. Not now, nor ever.

Something seems wrong with this Atiku, could he not have find a way to keep obi in his party and other defectors. Tinubu is only better in crooked politics but obi seems to deserve my trust though I wish oshinbajo is contesting