₦airaland Forum

•As domestic demand outstrips supply

•Producers stick to export market

•Dealers give catalogue of constraints

•Outlook remains uncertain —Industry Experts


Despite holding Africa’s largest proven gas reserves and recording rising gas production, household and industrial consumers are now faced with significant shortages of Liquefied Petroleum Gas, LPG, also known as cooking gas.

The development is also putting pressures on retail prices of the product.

Financial Vanguard findings showed that some producers are focused on exporting the product rather than meeting domestic demand.

Data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, showed that 62 per cent of the total gas output in the first two months of this year was exported, leaving only 38 per cent for domestic market.

Industry analysts said the lopsided supply, which had been in place during the years most Nigerians were not using gas for cooking, can no longer continue, adding that the supply structure was now destabilising domestic market.

Rising demand overshoots domestic supply


Financial Vanguard findings showed that demand has continued to outpace supply, according to the latest industry report, titled ”Nigeria LPG Production & Supply Matrix (2023-2026)”.

According to the report, estimated national consumption of cooking gas increased by 20 per cent to 1.8 million metric tonnes in 2026 from 1.5 million metric tonnes in 2023, while estimated national supply rose to between 1.55 million metric tonnes and 1.65 million metric tonnes in 2026.

This shortage is coming against the backdrop of increased production arising from the entry of Dangote Refinery into the supply end.

The report stated further: “The Nigerian LPG market has undergone a major structural transformation between 2023 and 2026. Historically dominated by imports and Nigeria LNG Limited, the market is increasingly being supplied by domestic gas-processing plants and refineries, particularly Dangote Petroleum Refinery, inland gas processors and NNPCL-linked facilities.”

The figures indicate that demand growth is outpacing supply expansion, despite rising domestic production and increased investment by major operators.

As a result of this supply-demand gap, retail prices in many parts of the country are now between N1,700 and N2,000 per kilogramme, up by over 80 per cent from average N1,100 in the first quarter of this year.

The dealers are saying the increases would continue in the months ahead as key problems cannot be resolved in short term.

Catalogue of constraints

The report warned that “cylinder penetration remains low. Distribution infrastructure remains inadequate. Marine terminal bottlenecks persist. Trucking costs significantly affect final retail prices. Exchange-rate volatility still influences imported LPG pricing.”

Experts give further insight

Despite the efforts of domestic suppliers, a review of reports by the NUPRC and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, showed that supply remains hindered by poor gas infrastructure, export priority over domestic supply, weak domestic gas pricing frameworks, insecurity and pipeline vandalism, inadequate investment, rising demand, foreign exchange volatility, limited storage capacity, regulatory inconsistencies and continued gas flaring.

An industry leader who pleaded anonymity, said: “Nigeria lacks adequate gas gathering, processing, storage and transmission infrastructure needed to move gas efficiently from production fields to consumers.

“This means that large volumes of gas produced in remote oil fields cannot be evacuated due to insufficient pipelines, processing plants and distribution networks.

“Many producers prefer exporting gas through LNG projects because export markets offer more attractive pricing and stable foreign exchange earnings than the domestic market. As a result, domestic consumers often struggle to access sufficient supply.

“Persistent crude oil theft, vandalism and insecurity in the Niger Delta continue to disrupt gas production and transportation. Attacks on pipelines and related facilities often force operators to shut down production, thereby reducing supply to domestic users.

“The gas sector requires billions of dollars in long-term investment, but uncertainty in policy implementation, regulatory bottlenecks and foreign exchange challenges have slowed capital inflows. Many critical gas projects have suffered delays or remain undeveloped.

“Domestic demand for LPG and natural gas has risen significantly due to population growth, urbanisation and government campaigns encouraging households to shift from firewood and kerosene to cleaner fuels. However, supply expansion has not kept pace with increasing demand.

“The depreciation of the naira has sharply increased the cost of imported LPG and gas-related equipment. Since Nigeria still imports a portion of its LPG requirements, exchange-rate instability directly affects pricing and availability.

“Nigeria’s LPG storage capacity remains inadequate compared to growing consumption levels. Insufficient coastal and inland storage facilities create supply disruptions whenever there are logistics delays, import challenges or production interruptions.

“Frequent policy changes, multiple regulatory agencies and implementation delays continue to create uncertainty in the sector. Operators say inconsistent fiscal terms and unclear regulatory frameworks discourage long-term planning and investment.”

He further stated that despite repeated commitments to end gas flaring, Nigeria still flares significant volumes of associated gas that could have been processed for domestic consumption.

Untold hardship for households, businesses

In their joint response, Barrister Edu Inyang, National President, Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers (NALPGMA), and Bassey Essien, Executive Secretary of the association, said: “This sad situation has brought untold hardship to millions of Nigerian households, small businesses, food vendors and low-income families who rely on LPG for daily cooking and livelihood.

“It is worrisome that the current situation is eroding the substantial progress made by the government in promoting clean energy usage in the country.

“Our members across the country face challenges sourcing LPG due to persistent supply shortages, high depot prices, logistics bottlenecks and rising operational costs.

“We observe that where the product is available, it is sold at rates far beyond the reach of average Nigerians.

“The current crisis is undermining years of progress achieved through federal government policies, public-private investments and awareness campaigns aimed at deepening LPG penetration and promoting clean cooking energy as a safer alternative to kerosene, charcoal and firewood in Nigeria.

“Many families are reverting to firewood and charcoal, despite the serious implications for public health, environmental degradation and deforestation.

“If urgent and coordinated action is not taken immediately, the current crisis could worsen food inflation, trigger job losses, reduce investor confidence and undermine Nigeria’s clean energy and climate commitments.”

They also called on “the Federal Government, the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, NNPC Ltd, domestic producers, terminal operators, international suppliers and all critical stakeholders in the LPG value chain to take urgent and coordinated steps to stabilise the market before the situation deteriorates further.”

Outlook remains uncertain

In an interview with Financial Vanguard, the National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria, OGSPAN, Mazi Colman Obasi, said: “The outlook is not bright in the short and medium term for several reasons.

”First, the problems, especially poor infrastructure and limited investment, cannot be addressed easily. Second, they require huge capital and much longer timeframes to resolve.

“Other issues such as insecurity and pipeline vandalism, foreign exchange volatility, limited storage capacity, regulatory inconsistencies and continued gas flaring also require resilience, commitment and long-term policy consistency.”

Another industry expert warned that unless Nigeria aggressively addressed infrastructure deficits, improved domestic supply incentives and strengthened investment conditions, the country might continue to experience gas shortages, despite its enormous reserves and production potential.

He said: “The combined contribution of NLNG, Dangote, Kwale Hydrocarbon, NPDC Ologbo, Pan Ocean, Seplat, PNG Gas, Greenville and other processors has significantly boosted Nigeria’s cooking gas output.

“Nigeria now has the technical capacity to become largely self-sufficient in LPG supply, but additional gas-processing projects must be brought on stream, domestic gas infrastructure must be expanded, more storage terminals must be commissioned and the nation’s LPG adoption policies must be sustained.”

Analysts warned that unless Nigeria rapidly expanded gas-processing infrastructure, storage capacity and domestic supply incentives, the country might remain trapped in cooking gas poverty, despite its enormous gas wealth.

Data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the price of cooking gas rose by 335 per cent to N1,741 per kilogramme in 2026 from N400 per kilogramme in 2016, driven by limited supply and other market forces.

A breakdown showed that the price of the product increased to N500 per kilogramme in 2017 from N400 per kilogramme in 2016.

The data also showed that the price further rose to N600, N680, N800, N950, N900, N1,000, N1,450, N1,630 and N1,741 per kilogramme in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively


https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/06/why-cooking-gas-will-remain-scarce-expensive-2/

A nation building pipeline to europe is lacking gas.

Summarily, no more cheap gas right?

In Nigeria, anything that goes up never comes down

Una don come to explain and defend rubbish. Why is demand for gas more than supply? Crude don finish abi they don bomb the refineries? Una just wan increase the price to gain more profit. Make una leave all these plenty talk.

Then BRING BACK OUR KEROSENE

CodeTemplar:
A nation building pipeline to europe is lacking gas.

It’s not lacking gas..

This is the problem.. Financial Vanguard findings showed that some producers are focused on exporting the product rather than meeting domestic demand.

Some producers prefer to export gas, rather than sell here in Nigeria, because of more profit..

More hardship for Agbado and cassava

In other words, the price hick is artificial. It was created by the rich to choke the poor.

nigerians have decided to be perpetually stupid. most of us here no remember abacha stove. stove made from saw dust or saw shavings. no be say gas or kerosene no dey, but na for the richest people. obasanjo make sure that progress came to all.ordnary people come dey buy cars, build houses. those born after 1998 should ask their parents.but gradually since apc came, we used our stupidly drag us back again to 1994. kerosene is 4k. gas 2400.

U hv to see the queue I met in gas station on Saturday.Retailer gas tanks took almost 95% of the space there.
I was even scared there should not be any form of explosion because people had there fones with them . God help us
A litre was 1750 naira in AA rano filling station

I hate long write ups
Thunder fire OP

People wey i pity most na the ones who converted their car from petrol to gas

And to think that some 15-20 years ago, this particular product is considered a waste and had to be flared endlessly in Nigeria now it is almost out of reach.

1kg now sold for as much as #2,200 in my hood today.

Tinubu as well look away. If the masses can die, so be it. God is waiting, we are getting ready. Before you nail me, I'm a yoruba man from osun state. Say no to bad government.

"...Industry analysts said the lopsided supply, which had been in place during the years most Nigerians were not using gas for cooking, can no longer continue..."

BULLSHXXT

This looks more like it

"...Data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, showed that 62 per cent of the total gas output in the first two months of this year was exported, leaving only 38 per cent for domestic market..."

Economic sabotage if I may say, the local market must as a matter of policy be serviced first of all before international market so, what's going on ? We export out then still import at considerable cost to make up shortfalls. Weird country

They have started again . Such for capitalists ...

MaziObinnaokija:
Then BRING BACK OUR KEROSENE

like wtf . why will they do so.how do you expect your agbero chairman get money to refill newly manufactured bullion vans. you have APC membership card make use of it

Cooking gas remains exploitatively expensive because Nigerians are terrible human beings

aybabz101:
People wey i pity most na the ones who converted their car from petrol to gas

No be that gas Dem de talk o.. Go shool u no gree you say na scam

Israel vs Iran war. Qatar and Saudi LPG is amongst top suppliers and it has been attacked while shipping lanes is blocked. Export is more profitable for Bonny and Dangote than local demands 🤷🏿.

Zico5:
Tinubu as well look away. If the masses can die, so be it. God is waiting, we are getting ready. Before you nail me, I'm a yoruba man from osun state. Say no to bad government.

I do not think that you read the information well before trying to impress your fellow Obidients. Long-term and consistent investment and policy direction is required , not Tinubu looking away . Who cares about the tribe you come from ? Hardly will you see a Southeasterner come here to criticize Peter Obi and then say , before you nail me , I am an Igbo man from Abia State and then conclude due to no detailed information, that he is a bad candidate.

What’s the job of the government

They just can’t control anything.

He knows wat he's talking, I know also, stop making a fool of yourself

Bluev:
No be that gas Dem de talk o.. Go shool u no gree you say na scam

Nigeria is the only country in the world you can't understand no matter how they take explain am to you. Even in a simple English.


What happens and goes smoothly (positively) in other countries tend to go the other way (negatively) once it reaches Nigeria turn.

Apcshit:
I hate long write ups
Thunder fire OP

you've been trolling on this forum.
I'm watching you

PattersonHR:
He knows wat he's talking, I know also, stop making a fool of yourself

Ohh Okay o. Make him no vex

CodeTemplar:
A nation building pipeline to Europe is lacking gas.

It shows how much our Leaders despise us, as Nigerians.
Exporting our Gas to Europe gives them more foreign currency to loot, they dont care about the suffering of Nigerians.

They tell us to use Gas to cook, to convert our vehicles to Gas, but will not provide the adequate amount of Gas we need.

Petrol we cannot afford
Gas we cannot afford
Kerosine, we cannot afford
Electricity, not available and unaffordable
Diesel, we cannot fford

What then is the essence of these people who rule us and fed fat on our resources?
Use your Voters Card properly in January 2027 otherwise, l dont want to see any premium tears from anybody.
You deserve the Leader you Elect.

People that are educated with master's degree will still absie the president as if he was the one that didn't lease it to the masses from aso rock

Once you see excessively long write up like this, to explain a simple phenomena, know that they are trying to gaslight us.
Maybe a New Tax on Gas?
Because all they know is Tax!, Tax!!, Tax!!!.
Evil People