₦airaland Forum

Some people misunderstand election projection. Projection is not prophecy. It is not wishful thinking. It is the comparison of past results, voting patterns, structures, incentives, regional shifts and changing political conditions.

In 2023, Peter Obi’s South-East performance was driven by a rare political wave. That wave combined protest mood, EndSARS energy, youth anger, religious anxiety, ethnic solidarity, anti-PDP/APC fatigue and a carefully packaged “new candidate” brand.

But waves are not permanent structures.

A wave is like floodwater after heavy rain: it may sweep through the street once, but no serious builder constructs his house assuming the same flood will return on schedule.

Tinubu’s 2023 South-East numbers were extremely poor. He scored about 127,370 votes, roughly 5.72% of the zone’s valid votes, while Obi scored about 1,952,998 votes, around 87.78%.

Yet Tinubu still won the presidency.

That is the first major point: Tinubu does not need the South-East to win in 2027. Any improvement there is a bonus, not his foundation.

The second point is structure. Nobody says governors alone vote. People vote. But in Nigerian elections, governors, commissioners, council chairmen, appointees, candidates, ward leaders and polling-unit agents help mobilise, persuade, fund, coordinate and protect votes.

In 2027, every South-East governor and major power bloc will have stronger incentive to avoid another APC collapse in the zone. The realistic target is not necessarily for Tinubu to win the South-East outright. The target is to improve margins, push toward 25%, and reduce Obi’s overwhelming 2023 advantage.

Obi, meanwhile, has the harder job. He must reproduce a 2023 emotional landslide after the novelty has faded, the brand has been tested, the platform has become unstable, and the movement has grown more abusive.

So “we will defend our votes” is not a projection.

It is a slogan.

The real question is simple: will the same conditions that produced Obi’s 2023 South-East wave still exist in 2027?

My answer is no.

Tinubu’s one and only foundation is the North. He only won 4 Yoruba states out of 17 Southern states. If he fails to improve on his numbers in the South come 2027, he may be toast.

2027 will be ATIKU and obi worst political outing in history

Ibo man is not good for president but Ibo votes are good for your president.

yarimo:
2027 will be ATIKU and obi worst political outing in history

Keep deceiving yourself.

Tinubuu will win...undemocratic of course.

yarimo:
2027 will be ATIKU and obi worst political outing in history

god has spoken

hahahahahahahahaahhaahahhaa

the least of urchins has commanded

Yarimoooo

2027 presidential election will be the easiest for president Tinubu to win.

Even csoludo family members will vote Obi,all those commissioners you are hoping for,don't have anything to gain working for tinubu,most of them know Obi is a better candidate

Sit down look na dog name oo

CharlesCNG:
Some people misunderstand election projection. Projection is not prophecy. It is not wishful thinking. It is the comparison of past results, voting patterns, structures, incentives, regional shifts and changing political conditions.

In 2023, Peter Obi’s South-East performance was driven by a rare political wave. That wave combined protest mood, EndSARS energy, youth anger, religious anxiety, ethnic solidarity, anti-PDP/APC fatigue and a carefully packaged “new candidate” brand.

But waves are not permanent structures.

A wave is like floodwater after heavy rain: it may sweep through the street once, but no serious builder constructs his house assuming the same flood will return on schedule.

Tinubu’s 2023 South-East numbers were extremely poor. He scored about 127,370 votes, roughly 5.72% of the zone’s valid votes, while Obi scored about 1,952,998 votes, around 87.78%.

Yet Tinubu still won the presidency.

That is the first major point: Tinubu does not need the South-East to win in 2027. Any improvement there is a bonus, not his foundation.

The second point is structure. Nobody says governors alone vote. People vote. But in Nigerian elections, governors, commissioners, council chairmen, appointees, candidates, ward leaders and polling-unit agents help mobilise, persuade, fund, coordinate and protect votes.

In 2027, every South-East governor and major power bloc will have stronger incentive to avoid another APC collapse in the zone. The realistic target is not necessarily for Tinubu to win the South-East outright. The target is to improve margins, push toward 25%, and reduce Obi’s overwhelming 2023 advantage.

Obi, meanwhile, has the harder job. He must reproduce a 2023 emotional landslide after the novelty has faded, the brand has been tested, the platform has become unstable, and the movement has grown more abusive.

So “we will defend our votes” is not a projection.

It is a slogan.

The real question is simple: will the same conditions that produced Obi’s 2023 South-East wave still exist in 2027?

My answer is no.

The only reason obii beat the drug baron in 2023 is because of his integrity.
That integrity is still thr for obi while the little thing the drug baron had in SE is completely dead now after 3 yrs plus. The corrupttion,the Yoruba presidentdency, and kanu in jail.
The drug baron has nothing left right now for SE to vote him beside few mental people left in SE
Obi equally beat the drug baron in total votes in SE and SW because of strong igbo population in SW
Tell me how obi got 3.1 million votes SE/SW and drug baron got 2.8 million votes in SW/SE
So obi only needs northern votes to be president and not SW votes. Your SW votes is over rated.If it is a lie bring out the votes that region brought to table from Buhari first term. It is not by registered voters. It by the votes from the region
The SE presently has no reason left to vote the drug baron in 2027
We are on ground. It is even a taboo now in political gatherings in SE to mention his name if you want people to listen to any other political position. The SE politicians now avoid mentioning his name when they go for thr campaign in villages under apc.
You sit in one amala town and be writing rubbish about SE.Do you know city boy movement was almost stoned anywhere they went in SE .Na securities been save them the they they came to owerri timber market.

yarimo:
2027 will be ATIKU and obi worst political outing in history

That is if obi will not kpai the drug baron before 2027 with the way he is squeezing his neck

kelechi50:
Ibo man is not good for president but Ibo votes are good for your president. Keep deceiving yourself.

only kindergarten politician like peter obi depends on south east votes to make him president

It won’t be easy for mandate thief to rig like 2023 that I am 100% sure of and that’s the reason why he is trying to destroy opposition

CharlesCNG:
Some people misunderstand election projection. Projection is not prophecy. It is not wishful thinking. It is the comparison of past results, voting patterns, structures, incentives, regional shifts and changing political conditions.

In 2023, Peter Obi’s South-East performance was driven by a rare political wave. That wave combined protest mood, EndSARS energy, youth anger, religious anxiety, ethnic solidarity, anti-PDP/APC fatigue and a carefully packaged “new candidate” brand.

But waves are not permanent structures.

A wave is like floodwater after heavy rain: it may sweep through the street once, but no serious builder constructs his house assuming the same flood will return on schedule.

Tinubu’s 2023 South-East numbers were extremely poor. He scored about 127,370 votes, roughly 5.72% of the zone’s valid votes, while Obi scored about 1,952,998 votes, around 87.78%.

Yet Tinubu still won the presidency.

That is the first major point: Tinubu does not need the South-East to win in 2027. Any improvement there is a bonus, not his foundation.

The second point is structure. Nobody says governors alone vote. People vote. But in Nigerian elections, governors, commissioners, council chairmen, appointees, candidates, ward leaders and polling-unit agents help mobilise, persuade, fund, coordinate and protect votes.

In 2027, every South-East governor and major power bloc will have stronger incentive to avoid another APC collapse in the zone. The realistic target is not necessarily for Tinubu to win the South-East outright. The target is to improve margins, push toward 25%, and reduce Obi’s overwhelming 2023 advantage.

Obi, meanwhile, has the harder job. He must reproduce a 2023 emotional landslide after the novelty has faded, the brand has been tested, the platform has become unstable, and the movement has grown more abusive.

So “we will defend our votes” is not a projection.

It is a slogan.

The real question is simple: will the same conditions that produced Obi’s 2023 South-East wave still exist in 2027?

My answer is no.

There was no state in south east who’s governor didn’t support Tinubu in 2023 none I dare you to mention any

The truth is you guys have refused to understand Igbos

See even if Peter Obi ,otti and Kanu kneel and beg Igbos to vote Tinubu he won’t see 5% votes

We are Igbos oga we vote who we won’t

Political structure one work if n only if there is no preferred candidate

But why are you wasting your energy on OBI possible victory when that task is outside your assignment which is marketing the terrible BAD MARKET you are paid for?

The dissatisfied Nigerians will express their anger through their votes.....

I have already transferred my polling unit to Lagos State for your information

AMINDA:
Tinubu’s one and only foundation is the North. He only won 4 Yoruba states out of 17 Southern states. If he fails to improve on his numbers in the South come 2027, he may be toast.

Toast to who, The North is no longer monolithic and ever since Buhari's passing, no one has stepped up to rally the ramparts, certainly NC and even NW don't see Atiku as one of their own anymore, to quote you, he Atiku is toast in the North.

mrvitalis:
There was no state in south east who’s governor didn’t support Tinubu in 2023 none I dare you to mention any

The truth is you guys have refused to understand Igbos

See even if Peter Obi ,otti and Kanu kneel and beg Igbos to vote Tinubu he won’t see 5% votes

We are Igbos oga we vote who we won’t

Political structure one work if n only if there is no preferred candidate

Not just obi and kanu. If zik and Ojukwu come out from grave and say we should vote the drug baron The SE will still not vote him because he lacks integrity. They don't know if not for rigging and federal might many past governors in SE won't have smelled that seat.We don't put people who lack integrity even in our village leadership. And if you force your way,you will never see respect or peace through out your tenure even from the poorest person in that village

aswani:
Toast to who, The North is no longer monolithic and ever since Buhari's passing, no one has stepped up to rally the ramparts, certainly NC and even NW don't see Atiku as one of their own anymore, to quote you, he Atiku is toast in the North.

See apa amu.So the people thr will prefer the drug baron who has been Yoruba president to Atiku. Do you even know the road to these places The drug baron can never win southern votes in. 2027

Streetinvestor2:
See apa amu.So the people thr will prefer the drug baron who has been Yoruba president to Atiku. Do you even know the road to these places The drug baron can never win southern votes in. 2027

Who will win Southern Votes, Peter Obi àbi? The one that claimed he won elections and we should forget proof. The one that refuses to pay tax but prefers to hide his money away.

That Saint àbi?

aswani:
Who will win Southern Votes, Peter Obi àbi? The one that claimed he won elections and we should forget proof. The one that refuses to pay tax but prefers to hide us money away.

That Saint àbi?

Obi will still win it again as he won it in 2023.The south beside SW has no reason to vote the drug baron like in 2023.The hate for him now is even stronger
Even me now don't pay tax to this criminal government to loot if not taken from sources like WHT
We all know why inec glitch happened only in presidential election in 2023 and results announced by 4 am
This time we will defend our votes as we vote and remain thr.Any one that tries glitch will be counted

aswani:
Who will win Southern Votes, Peter Obi àbi? The one that claimed he won elections and we should forget proof. The one that refuses to pay tax but prefers to hide us money away.

That Saint àbi?

That's not a respectful way to talk about someone who defeated Tinubu in Lagos. Peter Obi dusted Tinubu across the entire South and constrained him to winning only 4 Southwestern states in the entire South and is set to repeat it again. But Tinubu has nothing to fear since according to you, he has now inherited Buhari’s votes in the North.

Streetinvestor2:
Not just obi and kanu. If zik and Ojukwu come out from grave and say we should vote the drug baron The SE will still not vote him because he lacks integrity. They don't know if not for rigging and federal might many past governors in SE won't have smelled that seat.We don't put people who lack integrity even in our village leadership. And if you force your way,you will never see respect or peace through out your tenure even from the poorest person in that village

Rigging and no stand out candidate that’s all

Like soludo
Soludo should be thanking Val

Streetinvestor2:
Obi will still win it again as he won it in 2023.The south beside SW has no reason to vote the drug baron like in 2023.The hate for him now is even stronger
Even me now don't pay tax to this criminal government to loot if not taken from sources like WHT
We all know why inec glitch happened only in presidential election in 2023 and results announced by 4 am
This time we will defend our votes as we vote and remain thr.Any one that tries glitch will be counted

If they had announced it later, you would have said they should have done it earlier and why are they cooking it morning.

Obi didn't win anything in 2023 and will poll less next year. You might hate President Tinubu because you are an Obidient and he defeated Peter Obí pure and clean but the rest of Nigeria hate Obidients for their evil glorification in other people's misfortune.

AMINDA:
That's not a respectful way to talk about someone who defeated Tinubu in Lagos. Peter Obi dusted Tinubu across the entire South and constrained him to winning only 4 Southwestern states in the entire South and is set to repeat it again. But Tinubu has nothing to fear since according to you, he has now inherited Buhari’s votes in the North.

Peter Obi is repeating nothing, I didn't say President Tinubu has nothing to fear, I said Northern votes, aside NW, are not guaranteed for your oga Atiku.

aswani:
If they had announced it later, you would have said they should have done it earlier and why are they cooking it morning.

Obi didn't win anything in 2023 and will poll less next year. You might hate President Tinubu because you are an Obidient and he defeated Peter Obí pure and clean but the rest of Nigeria hate Obidients for their evil glorification in other people's misfortune.

I don't hate him because I am obidient. I hate him because he is drug baron and has criminality all about anything concerning him.I will gladly lose that arm instead to use it to vote for his type
You didn’t tell us why glitch occurred in only election concerning him on that day but not for othe offices since you decided to talk about timing

Streetinvestor2:
I don't hate him because I am obidient. I hate him because he is drug baron and has criminality all about anything concerning him.I will gladly lose that arm instead to use it to vote for his type
You didn’t tell us why glitch occurred in only election concerning him on that day but not for othe offices since you decided to talk about timing

Humour us and tell us which drug organisation you saw him head.

The glitch occurred on IREV with people not adding the correct pictures on. Thank God we had the paper version of those results so, despite outlandish results fron the SE, the real results were announced and the real winner ascended the throne at Aso rock, to the Lord be all the glory.

I didn't vote President Tinubu and wouldn't in 2027 either. The one whose type I would gladly lose an arm rather than vote is the one that refuse to pay taxes and wants to be President. How do you tell people to pay taxes when you don't pay?

CharlesCNG:
Some people misunderstand election projection. Projection is not prophecy. It is not wishful thinking. It is the comparison of past results, voting patterns, structures, incentives, regional shifts and changing political conditions.

In 2023, Peter Obi’s South-East performance was driven by a rare political wave. That wave combined protest mood, EndSARS energy, youth anger, religious anxiety, ethnic solidarity, anti-PDP/APC fatigue and a carefully packaged “new candidate” brand.

But waves are not permanent structures.

A wave is like floodwater after heavy rain: it may sweep through the street once, but no serious builder constructs his house assuming the same flood will return on schedule.

Tinubu’s 2023 South-East numbers were extremely poor. He scored about 127,370 votes, roughly 5.72% of the zone’s valid votes, while Obi scored about 1,952,998 votes, around 87.78%.

Yet Tinubu still won the presidency.

That is the first major point: Tinubu does not need the South-East to win in 2027. Any improvement there is a bonus, not his foundation.

The second point is structure. Nobody says governors alone vote. People vote. But in Nigerian elections, governors, commissioners, council chairmen, appointees, candidates, ward leaders and polling-unit agents help mobilise, persuade, fund, coordinate and protect votes.

In 2027, every South-East governor and major power bloc will have stronger incentive to avoid another APC collapse in the zone. The realistic target is not necessarily for Tinubu to win the South-East outright. The target is to improve margins, push toward 25%, and reduce Obi’s overwhelming 2023 advantage.

Obi, meanwhile, has the harder job. He must reproduce a 2023 emotional landslide after the novelty has faded, the brand has been tested, the platform has become unstable, and the movement has grown more abusive.

So “we will defend our votes” is not a projection.

It is a slogan.

The real question is simple: will the same conditions that produced Obi’s 2023 South-East wave still exist in 2027?

My answer is no.

you made the right decision because

aswani:
Humour us and tell us which drug organisation you saw him head.

The glitch occurred on IREV with people not adding the correct pictures on. Thank God we had the paper version of those results so, despite outlandish results fron the SE, the real results were announced and the real winner ascended the throne at Aso rock, to the Lord be all the flirt.

I didn't vote President Tinubu and wouldn't in 2027 either. The one whose type I would gladly lose an arm rather than vote is the one that refuse to pay taxes and wants to be President. How do you tell people to pay taxes when you don't pay?

Have you started earning some income now.I know 1.2 million dollars in today value forfeiture in usa was by my father. I forgot one data boy said it was mistakenly paid into his account
The other said it was civil forfeiture. I asked if it was on parking offence. I asked on what issues
The people uploading it whr able to upload the right pictures for legislative position on same day but didn't know how to do the presidential election.
Then on taxes. Let me help you out again so you don't keep showing another ignorance on Public space lice the case of hero beer
What type of taxes do we have.And which is obi defaulting. And why hasn't the government taken him to court on the matter. I hope you know part of your requirements to submit to inec for clearance is tax clearance certificate. This is why I knew you can't be from SS.The people have high IQ to be repeating any kind of rubbish from watsup group

Streetinvestor2:
Have you started earning some income now.I know 1.2 million dollars in today value forfeiture in usa was by my father. I forgot one data boy said it was mistakenly paid into his account
The other said it was civil forfeiture. I asked if it was on parking offence. I asked on what issues
The people uploading it whr able to upload the right pictures for legislative position on same day but didn't know how to do the presidential election.
Then on taxes. Let me help you out again so you don't keep showing another ignorance on Public space lice the case of hero beer
What type of taxes do we have.And which is obi defaulting. And why hasn't the government taken him to court on the matter. I hope you know part of your requirements to submit to inec for clearance is tax clearance certificate. This is why I knew you can't be from SS.The people have high IQ to be repeating any kind of rubbish from watsup group

A man hides his money in a tax haven and you are blowing grammar defending him. Thankfully majority are aware that he can't be President with such baggage, not of Nigeria.

There were glitches in all the elections that used IREV, not just the Presidential one.

The money in account issue has been explained loads of times, hopefully the person that paid the monies into an innocent President Tinubu's account will be found and will do jail time. Thankfully, the American authorities were fully aware that it wasn't his monies based on his lifestyle then. The monies were removed and his account was unfrozen. Chikena.

Of course you are welcome to phone the CIA or FBI hotline if you have proof otherwise. I am sure there is a reward you can collect, you too go and put the reward in a tax haven like Peter Obí and appear in Pandora papers, then try and be President of Nigeria.

"Rubbish WhatsApp group", and you accuse someone of not having a high IQ àbi? Preacher, bikonu please heal thyself.

Your Peter Obi will not win in 2027, get ready to practise your default Obidient mode of response when that reality sets in. Telling us he won elections and we should forget proof, can you imagine?

@OP.

Well -said.

Another important consideration is that SE and SS leaders, since 1999, have never had a leader to empower, finance, liberate and protect them as Tinubu is doing.

They will do anything and everything to ensure he continues because human beings are about self-preservation. Whatever supports that they will fight for.

There is not a single politician from the SE, perhaps aside Abaribe, behind Obi today. They are all behind Tinubu. From Ben Kalu to Orji Kalu. In fact Orji Kalu confessed he would not have the bravery to do what Tinubu is doing and getting away with.

Crystal clear Southern politicians view Tinubu their long-sought 'alagbara' against the backward and predatory core North

Many FG mega projects in the SE and SS region, other Presidents had neglected for decades, 300% increase in allocation allowing Governors and local Government chairmen to achieve more etc, etc.

They see Tinubu as a genuine gladiator neutralising the overbearing negative political influence of the North that even a former general, OBJ, could not pull off. These guys are ready to give it all for Tinubu.

Forget these hateful and empty noisemakers on Nairaland. Virtually all Southern leaders are with Tinubu and ready to do anything to support his 2027 return.

They know if Tinubu is deposed then it is a return to the status quo where the South, since 1999, is always downgraded and relegated behind the North.

Whereas they appreciate that Tinubu is succeeding rejecting and suppressing the blackmail and backwardness Northern political leaders had previously used to hold Nigeria, especially the more progressive South, down all in the name of 'One Nigeria,

Hateful SE Nairalanders on NL will be shocked at how well Tinubu will do in the SE because leaders in the region will literally write figures for PBAT.

This is an existential battle where Southern leaders have seen a saviour they feel they must protect for their own permanent interest. Soludo is APGA but you would think he is APC and Tinubu's political godson the way he waxes lyrical about PBAT daily.

I remember Governor Eno of Akwa Ibom warning all in his cabinet to resign if they don't wish to follow him to APC. The man's devotion to Tinubu is 200% even.

Let haters dey online dey whine themselves . Virtually all Southern leaders are behind PBAT over-passionately even. Ditto North central leaders. 2027 is not even a debate. No one can depose PBAT.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1cf58H8c3i/

Streetinvestor2:
Obi will still win it again as he won it in 2023.The south beside SW has no reason to vote the drug baron like in 2023.The hate for him now is even stronger
Even me now don't pay tax to this criminal government to loot if not taken from sources like WHT
We all know why inec glitch happened only in presidential election in 2023 and results announced by 4 am
This time we will defend our votes as we vote and remain thr.Any one that tries glitch will be counted

Your Peru drug baron will kiss the canvas bitterly more than he did in 2023 because President Tinubu will win 2027 elections with a landslide.