₦airaland Forum

seunmsg:
Not as Vice to Obi.

Atleast,he is the only Kano man on the ballot for Presidential or vice presidential

If the two main opposition parties had teamed up against Tinubu, Tinubu can not win 10% of votes.

mrvitalis:
Name the state he can get 25% oyo ?

Can you also mention a state in SW Atiku has less than 20% in 2023, save Lagos which won by Obi. He even won Osun. Even with massive rigging in the region for Tinubu. Like we know Seyi antiparty in Oyo.

Many Yoruba that voted for tribe in 2023 has realised the pain Tinubu has to inflict, which i know will reduce his vote

I'm not Atiku fan, but he has the whole chance come 2027.

Only massive rigging can return Tinubu

No, don't dare say that. I rebuke you for saying it.
You are not an Obidient whether Yoruba or Igbo Obidient so let them speak for themselves.
Obidients said it loud and clear and even their principal - Peter Obi made it crystal clear that they must abide by the North - South zoning agreement which was one of the reasons dey left the ADC.
South must rule for 8 years before power returns to the North, if not Obi would have accepted to be Atiku VP candidate in ADC and NDC decamping would not have happened.
Are you trying to call Obidients hypocrites?
Please let Obidients speak up.
The last 2 Obidients I have engaged on this issue have stopped replying me and I can't imagine why.
Does Obi and Obidients really have principles or are they anywhere belle face Nigerians like everybody else?
Time is a gentleman.

Hedonisco:
No Obidient, except yoruba Obidients, will vote for Tinubu in the event that it boils down to a direct contest between Atiku and Tinubu.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Atleast,he is the only Kano man on the ballot for Presidential or vice presidential

Kano people won’t be voting an Ibo Christian as president.

OLABAMIJI99:
As Tinubu suppporter, I can confidently tell you that Tinubu has no pathway to Aso rock in 2027 because all odds are now against him unlike 2023.. I am being factual here , and Let’s not deceive or lie to ourselves to feel happy.


In 2023, the Late Buhari internally worked against Tinubu, but he had no option than to throw his weight behind him at the general election because he’s the flag bearer of his party APC which his cult followers also did as Buhari commanded. Despite that, millions still voted against Buhari’s wish especially the politically exposed Hausa Fulani Muslims who voted for Atiku ..

In 2027, Buhari is no where to be found, who is going to influence votes for Tinubu like Buhari did in 2023 ?
Is it the nothern Governors whose bodies are in APC but souls are sitting with ADC ?, the same thing is applicable to some South South and South East Governors where Obi’s candidacy has caused uncertainty in the aforementioned region..

In 2023, Obi’s candidacy made Tinubu to win

In 2027, Obi’s candidacy will make Atiku to win..

Well, what do I know ?

Let the best Muslim emerge.

Yes, you have spoken. You know nothing, your mathematical permutations notwithstanding.

flokii:
@OP Take several seats at the back when politics is being discussed because you have zero understanding of what Nigerian politics looks like.

In your deluded mind.. Atiku that's in ADC with 0 State Governor(s) will defeat PBAT that's in APC with over 30 State Governors.. or is it the other one in NDC with 0 State Governor(s) that will win the master strategist?.
Kids in politics section.

Labour Party had zero state in 2023

Lanre1st:
Can you also mention a state in SW Atiku has less than 20% in 2023, save Lagos which won by Obi. He even won Osun. Even with massive rigging in the region for Tinubu. Like we know Seyi antiparty in Oyo.

Many Yoruba that voted for tribe in 2023 has realised the pain Tinubu has to inflict, which i know will reduce his vote

I'm not Atiku fan, but he has the whole chance come 2027.

Only massive rigging can return Tinubu

Are you serious ?
PDP structure in south west is very strong
Now atiku is without it how would he get it ?

OLABAMIJI99:
I am not expecting cheers from anyone because most Atiku supporters are not online..

Only Tinubu and Obi supporters will invade this thread to argue with emotions instead of facts because they are majority on this forum , and above all they are emotionally attached to their candidates..

OLABAMIJI the issue is that nobody has your time bcoz the issue you brought has no substance.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Your problem is you overate Politicians thinking they would force people to vote for tinubu,same tinubu that Couldn't win Lagos with all the politicians backing him

Bro, you too dey talk off point.
Mention 3 current Bayelsa politicians in the NDC. I dey wait.

OLABAMIJI99:
As Tinubu suppporter, I can confidently tell you that Tinubu has no pathway to Aso rock in 2027 because all odds are now against him unlike 2023.. I am being factual here , and Let’s not deceive or lie to ourselves to feel happy.


In 2023, the Late Buhari internally worked against Tinubu, but he had no option than to throw his weight behind him at the general election because he’s the flag bearer of his party APC which his cult followers also did as Buhari commanded. Despite that, millions still voted against Buhari’s wish especially the politically exposed Hausa Fulani Muslims who voted for Atiku ..

In 2027, Buhari is no where to be found, who is going to influence votes for Tinubu like Buhari did in 2023 ?
Is it the nothern Governors whose bodies are in APC but souls are sitting with ADC ?, the same thing is applicable to some South South and South East Governors where Obi’s candidacy has caused uncertainty in the aforementioned region..

In 2023, Obi’s candidacy made Tinubu to win

In 2027, Obi’s candidacy will make Atiku to win..

Well, what do I know ?

Let the best Muslim emerge.

You are a complete novice with a very poor reasoning. Peter Obi has brighter chances of deafeating Tinubu than Atiku. If Buhari could threw his weight behind him becuase he was APC presidentail candidate and ordinary politician, on what basis did you think that northern governors and party leadership who has their focus on 2031 as their turn will rejects him as a sitting president that has absolute power to make and unmake them?

So, they will work for Atiku and destroy their chances in 2031 or go and queue behind Atiku men abi? Make una dey use brain dey reason nah. If anyone will deafeat Tinubu, it would be Peter Obi and not Atiku.

OLABAMIJI99:
I am not expecting cheers from anyone because most Atiku supporters are not online..

Only Tinubu and Obi supporters will invade this thread to argue with emotions instead of facts because they are majority on this forum , and above all they are emotionally attached to their candidates..

Na you still dey reply yourself speaks volumes. You know you are very far from reality on ground. Keep deluding yourself, its free choice.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
It's tinubu,Igbos don't hate Osinbanjo and Makinde

Make your jealousy no consume u b4 your time o, is Osinbajo & Makinde president of The Federal Republic of Nigeria .

Svoboda:
So, all the northern govs are collectively going to run as president in 2031?

After all said and done, it's the emirs and islamic clerics who have some level of control over the populace that will determine what happens in the north in 2027, and not northern govs who control nothing.

If Atiku has truly inherited Buharis support, which I believe he substantially has, it's over for Tinubu who doesn't even sincerely trust those governors.

@Bolded,
No sir. But some will like to go to the Senate. All want appointments and political patronage for their supporters.

Also, don't forget some are former Senators, concluding 2 terms and will like go back to the Senate.
Someone like the guy in Zamfara is contending against them Yari and Mattawale. He needs all the prodding he can get, else they will tear him to pieces.

Tambuwal that made the mistake of his life following Atiku, where is he today?

onatisi:
The fact that ADC is under constant attack by the judiciary and INEC actually shows where the threat to tinubu reelection is . Secondly, the South isn't for one person; the votes from the South will be broken into pieces. It is the North that will decide who eventually wins the 2027 elections. In the South, Atiku, Obi, Makinde, and tinubu will all have their share of votes, but the North will be a straight fight between Atiku and tinubu. The rigging machinery that worked for APC against Atiku in 2023 is no longer there, but let's wait and see how it all pans out

What is the point of this analysis when APC Twitter sympathiser Amupitan’s INEC and Wike’s courts have effectively ruled out Atiku and ADC from the election

iwaeda:
Wike Boasts Of Helping APC Use Judiciary To Kill Osun LG Funds Case, Warns Party Leaders Against Ingratitude

Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, has openly boasted that he assisted certain elements within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in deploying the judiciary to frustrate the Osun State local government allocation lawsuit.

In a video now circulating widely on social media and obtained by SaharaReporters, Wike made the claim while addressing a crowd in Port Harcourt, Rivers State.

The former Rivers governor accused the APC National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, of benefitting from judicial actions against the Osun State Government without knowing those who did the work behind the scenes.

The suit in question led to the withholding of local government funds in Osun State, a development widely seen as targeting the administration of Governor Ademola Adeleke as opposition in the state.

Wike, who spoke angrily, suggested that the court action supporting the APC’s position against the Osun government did not happen by chance, boasting that powerful political forces worked quietly to ensure the outcome.

“Don’t take our support for Mr President for granted,” Wike warned, in an apparent message to APC leaders defending Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara. “You have to be careful about the statements you make. You have to be very careful.”

He accused Basiru of political ingratitude, claiming the APC was enjoying in Osun State without understanding who engineered their advantage.

“Today, you are enjoying in Osun. You don’t know those who did the work,” Wike said. “You are opening your mouth to talk about Rivers State.”

https://saharareporters.com/2026/01/08/wike-boasts-helping-apc-use-judiciary-kill-osun-lg-funds-case-warns-party-leaders

https://x.com/i/status/2008159812710752329

You tried now. At least you are reasoning one way.....unlike some people wey no get brain at all. And after what fulani bandits are doing in the north, the hausa people will vote Atiku another fulani man after buhari.

January is not too far away. Make we siddon look.

OLABAMIJI99:
I am not expecting cheers from anyone because most Atiku supporters are not online..

Only Tinubu and Obi supporters will invade this thread to argue with emotions instead of facts because they are majority on this forum , and above all they are emotionally attached to their candidates..

OLABAMIJI,
MENTION ONE STATE IN THE SOUTH THAT YOU THINK ATIKU ADC CAN SCORE 25%.

OLABAMIJI99:
I am not expecting cheers from anyone because most Atiku supporters are not online..

Only Tinubu and Obi supporters will invade this thread to argue with emotions instead of facts because they are majority on this forum , and above all they are emotionally attached to their candidates..

OLABAMIJI99:
As Tinubu suppporter, I can confidently tell you that Tinubu has no pathway to Aso rock in 2027 because all odds are now against him unlike 2023.. I am being factual here , and Let’s not deceive or lie to ourselves to feel happy.


In 2023, the Late Buhari internally worked against Tinubu, but he had no option than to throw his weight behind him at the general election because he’s the flag bearer of his party APC which his cult followers also did as Buhari commanded. Despite that, millions still voted against Buhari’s wish especially the politically exposed Hausa Fulani Muslims who voted for Atiku ..

In 2027, Buhari is no where to be found, who is going to influence votes for Tinubu like Buhari did in 2023 ?
Is it the nothern Governors whose bodies are in APC but souls are sitting with ADC ?, the same thing is applicable to some South South and South East Governors where Obi’s candidacy has caused uncertainty in the aforementioned region..

In 2023, Obi’s candidacy made Tinubu to win

In 2027, Obi’s candidacy will make Atiku to win..

Well, what do I know ?

Let the best Muslim emerge.

It's very unfortunate that you took your precious time to write on political calculations of winning presidential election in Nigeria without factoring in the "core determinant" in the whole process; which is INEC. Tinubu will certainly use all the institutions (including INEC, Police, military and the courts) under his control to muscle opposition to his victory.

If winning presidential elections is determined by the voting system, it was Cristal clear to even the blind that APC lost in the 2023 election.

In the entire history of Nigeria, it was only the June 12 1993 and the recent 2015 elections that were "close" to being free and fair.

You need to put into consideration those variables that are peculiar to Nigeria in the course of making your predictions

Wickedfacts:
@Bolded,
No sir. But some will like to go to the Senate. All want appointments and political patronage for their supporters.

Also, don't forget some are former Senators, concluding 2 terms and will like go back to the Senate.
Someone like the guy in Zamfara is contending against them Yari and Mattawale. He needs all the prodding he can get, else they will tear him to pieces.

Tambuwal that made the mistake of his life following Atiku, where is he today?

Something we may need to realize is that northerners do a lot of skirt and blouse voting, especially since the inception of the 4th republic. You may see Atiku win most states while a lot of APC govs are returned in the north. It happened under Objs second tenure and under Gej in 2011. In both cases, their saving grace was that they both were well grounded in the south to nullify what ever they were expected to lose in the north. Same won't be said of Tinubu, who is the weakest southern president among the three in terms of broadbased southern support, no thanks to obi.

Don't be surprised Atiku has reached a form of accord with some northern politicians openly singing Tinubus praise in the open. Thank God you mentioned the infighting in Zamfara between the gov and Yari. A lot might be going on underground.What even makes you think the prospect of Tinubu ditching them once he gets over the line, like he did to el rufai, won't rankle at them inwardly?

As for Tambuwal, he willingly conceded his senatorial ticket and is everywhere working his socks off for Atiku now.

OLABAMIJI99:
As Tinubu suppporter, I can confidently tell you that Tinubu has no pathway to Aso rock in 2027 because all odds are now against him unlike 2023.. I am being factual here , and Let’s not deceive or lie to ourselves to feel happy.


In 2023, the Late Buhari internally worked against Tinubu, but he had no option than to throw his weight behind him at the general election because he’s the flag bearer of his party APC which his cult followers also did as Buhari commanded. Despite that, millions still voted against Buhari’s wish especially the politically exposed Hausa Fulani Muslims who voted for Atiku ..

In 2027, Buhari is no where to be found, who is going to influence votes for Tinubu like Buhari did in 2023 ?
Is it the nothern Governors whose bodies are in APC but souls are sitting with ADC ?, the same thing is applicable to some South South and South East Governors where Obi’s candidacy has caused uncertainty in the aforementioned region..

In 2023, Obi’s candidacy made Tinubu to win

In 2027, Obi’s candidacy will make Atiku to win..

Well, what do I know ?

Let the best Muslim emerge.

Im on the opinion that majority of northern Governors are either covertly avoiding campaign for Tinubu or secretly working for ADC in the presidential election, so that ADC would sacrifice its Gubernatorial election in those states

Coolgent:
Im on the opinion that majority of northern Governors are either covertly avoiding campaign for Tinubu or secretly working for ADC in the presidential election, so that ADC would sacrifice its Gubernatorial election in those states

So by your logic, Northern governors, most of whom have an interest in becoming President, will rather Atiku get in now and wait 16 years, after South does their 8 years after Atiku, or wait 4 years to throw their hat in the ring.

Please make it make sense.

Only a mad man can reveal this type of insight to you.lol

aswani:
So by your logic, Northern governors, most of whom have an interest in becoming President, will rather Atiku get in now and wait 16 years, after South does their 8 years after Atiku, or wait 4 years to throw their hat in the ring.

Please make it make sense.

Going by your logic, the northern govs even in PDP won't have ditched Gej for Buhari in 2015, because they'd have had to wait 16 years to get a shot at the presidency. Politics isn't black and white o.

Under ADC? This is not PDP ooo ...if that guy see 4m vote I go use razor blade cut my PVC

Only Tinubu,we get one Seyi wey nor get constitutional office.

But if Atiku wins in 2031,
then we go get more than 20 Seyis.


Guess what?

Our resources go hear am.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
It's tinubu,Igbos don't hate Osinbanjo and Makinde

So did the igbos ever voted for any ticket that has Osinbajo or Makinde on it? Osinbajo was VP for two terms, but I don't see how 5% support translate to love for them.

LottiOk:
Op if u can't afford Malaria medicine, ask ur fellow atikulator Aminda to show u where he buys "Agbo Iba" cos it's clear u r hallucinating like he used to before Reality started to dawn on him dat Una principal atifku can never win next year's elections even in an alternate universe where Tinubu doesn't exist.

I don't know between u and Aminda, who's more heartless using deception and lies of election victory to milk atifku of his hard earned loot. Just as mrvitalis and co are milking Obi nwannem of his own.

There's god oooh ‼️............ In Mama P's voice

God Bless you.
I started following Tinubu in 2011

I have followed him through all his obstacles.Nil obstacle has ever stopped him!

Like how? There is not a single state in the South that he can even get 25% votes from. Don’t even let Amaechi’s selection deceive you into believing he has any chance in Rivers. He has no political value even in his own hometown.

Svoboda:
Going by your logic, the northern govs even in PDP won't have ditched Gej for Buhari in 2015, because they'd have had to wait 16 years to get a shot at the presidency. Politics isn't black and white o.

The poster I was responding to focused on governors, not me.

You are, of course, very right in saying politics, especially in Nigeria, isn't black and white.

franvincoop:
Tinubu is the only candidate as of this minute you are reading my comments that can meet the requirement to have 25% votes in atleast 24 states.
Neither Peter Obi nor Atiku is going to get 25% votes in 24 states in 2027, neither did they get it in 2023.

What Tinubu cannot get is the highest number of votes total.
Between Atiku and Obi, one of them will get the highest number of votes in 2027.
Prepare your mind for a 2nd round election in February or March 2026.
Atiku or Obi will either be a candidate in the 2nd round or a Kingmaker.

If we say make una put money were yout mouth is.
...una go run.

Tinubu will win easily come jan 2027....200k bet on that...are you in??

OLABAMIJI99:
As Tinubu suppporter, I can confidently tell you that Tinubu has no pathway to Aso rock in 2027 because all odds are now against him unlike 2023.. I am being factual here , and Let’s not deceive or lie to ourselves to feel happy.


In 2023, the Late Buhari internally worked against Tinubu, but he had no option than to throw his weight behind him at the general election because he’s the flag bearer of his party APC which his cult followers also did as Buhari commanded. Despite that, millions still voted against Buhari’s wish especially the politically exposed Hausa Fulani Muslims who voted for Atiku ..

In 2027, Buhari is no where to be found, who is going to influence votes for Tinubu like Buhari did in 2023 ?
Is it the nothern Governors whose bodies are in APC but souls are sitting with ADC ?, the same thing is applicable to some South South and South East Governors where Obi’s candidacy has caused uncertainty in the aforementioned region..

In 2023, Obi’s candidacy made Tinubu to win

In 2027, Obi’s candidacy will make Atiku to win..

Well, what do I know ?

Let the best Muslim emerge.

Shock awaits all of you. Obi/Kwakwanso shouldn't have signed a single term ticket deal. That's what will nail both Tinubu and Atiku as power is coming back to the north even faster. Once Obi leaves office, we the Obidients will show our loyalty by rooting for Kwakwanso. I only pray they are able to erase all the Tinubu's failure of 4 years.

Wickedfacts:
Bro, you too dey talk off point.
Mention 3 current Bayelsa politicians in the NDC. I dey wait.

You dey talk off point,mention 3 politicians that was in LP in 2023,we are talking about the people you are talking of politicians