₦airaland Forum

Delulu on the beat

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You dey talk off point,mention 3 politicians that was in LP in 2023,we are talking about the people you are talking of politicians

As at 2012, when Peter Obi was still in PDP doing houseboy to Jonathan, LP already produced a Governor in Ondo state.

Start your education from there.

Wickedfacts:
As at 2012, when Peter Obi was still in PDP doing houseboy to Jonathan, LP already produced a Governor in Ondo state.

Start your education from there.

How many Govs did LP have in 2023 ,are you sure you are okay,?

mrvitalis:
As it stands now he should be consolidating in the north but don’t know what’s wrong ,his home state is in turmoil

Atiku is not really smart sha

Atiku can’t consolidate any North. Tinubu will still defeat him in the NW in 2027 as usual. Northern leaders know this, which explain why they are not radical about its North turn coz Atiku command no respect among the leaders.


I don’t know the jazz Atiku is using on people for you guys to see him as a strong contender. If Kwakwanso will actually work for Obi and win Kano for him in 2027, then Atiku is finished in the NW. Tinubu go still get more vote than him in the NW just as in 2023.

Northern leaders are smart. It is better for them to allow Tinubu finish and then they can use his network to win easily in 2031. Tinubu is very strong, you guys are making a mistake thinking he is Jonathan.

With or without your votes, that man will be re-elected president. Only one thing can stop him in 2027, and that is deth.

OLABAMIJI99:
Yes, Tinubu will get 25% across all the states, but we are talking about of victory here, not 25%..

Those governors you are talking about are likely to repeat what PDP governors did to Jonathan in 2015, not plotting of any 2031 ambition.Don’t be deceived.

Again, you are saying that Atiku won’t get 25% in southern Nigeria, if An unknown Obi got 25% in some Nothern states, is it Atiku a former vice president that won’t get 25% ?

You must be a joke..

Can you forget about making blanket statements and talk to specifics?

Name the southern states where Atiku will get 25%.

Name it.

seunmsg:
Atiku has no structure in Kano. In 2023, he hit about 180k votes. With the current situation, he’s even worse off in the state.

Even with Kwakwanso on the top ballot in 2023, Tinubu came a very close second. In 2027, APC is extremely strong in the state while the Kwakwanso movement has been seriously depleted. A one man kwakwanso who is now playing second fiddle to an Ibo Christian is at his weakest point. Tinubu will either win Kano or lose the state marginally like 2023. Atiku will come very distant third as his party is very weak in the state.

I understand where you are coming from. However, politicians like Kwakwanso have huge egos. He will do everything within his power to make the OK ticket win Kano, including with vote buying and rigging. As for Atiku, I still believe he might do better than Tinubu in Kano. There is an anti-Tinubu pitch going strong in the North today. This is not 2023.

Overall, I still believe Tinubu will win 2027 elections. Tinubu is a street politician and he will do everything to win.

Goo0dHardDick:
If not that inec is frantically corrupt, Tinubu will come a distant 3rd in all states.

You need to leave your echo chamber. If you live around people where everyone is anti-Tinubu, you should also consider the tribe and religion of those people before you believe everyone is against him. This is the reason some of you think Tinubu lost 2023 elections. Nigeria is a plural, multiethnic, multireligious society. The sentiments in Anambra are polar opposite to the ones in Zamfara or Ogun.

The fact is that Tinubu has millions of people who genuinely believe in him. I mean people who do not directly benefit anything from him.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Obi would win every SS states,Bayelsa is the first state because it is the home of NDC ,IJaws see NDC as their party.Obi would clear the whole SS states,the only place he might have issues is Rivers state .Obi won Delta in 2023 even with their Gov as vp candidate.In 2027,he would win with a bigger margin. The problem with you guys you think Govs determing votes of the whole state.Obi had no Gov in 2023 and won tinubu even in Lagos

Obi can't win bayelsa. Dickson cannot deliver bayelsa. Obi will win delta but with lower margin

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Kwankwanso would win Kano

Narrowly. What about other northern states

onatisi:
The fact that ADC is under constant attack by the judiciary and INEC actually shows where the threat to tinubu reelection is . Secondly, the South isn't for one person; the votes from the South will be broken into pieces. It is the North that will decide who eventually wins the 2027 elections. In the South, Atiku, Obi, Makinde, and tinubu will all have their share of votes, but the North will be a straight fight between Atiku and tinubu. The rigging machinery that worked for APC against Atiku in 2023 is no longer there, but let's wait and see how it all pans out

The machinery is still there

Svoboda:
This pure wishful thinking. Politics is projection and analysis and not fantasy.

Did Peter Obi have any stalwart in public office before he won edo and delta in 2023?

He won there because the obi wave was massive there. It has dissipated

Svoboda:
So, all the northern govs are collectively going to run as president in 2031?

After all said and done, it's the emirs and islamic clerics who have some level of control over the populace that will determine what happens in the north in 2027, and not northern govs who control nothing.

If Atiku has truly inherited Buharis support, which I believe he substantially has, it's over for Tinubu who doesn't even sincerely trust those governors.

Two emirs already endorsed Tinubu

HIGHESTPOPORI:
How many Govs did LP have in 2023 ,are you sure you are okay,?

Go and ask your elders at home.
Upon all you and Obi's noise, all they could produce was 1 Governor.

Hemanwel:
You see those APC governors up north? You think they will work or campaign for Tinubu? If they will be secretly working for Atiku, it means the ADC has 19 northern governors already.

Why didn't they work for him in 2023

olyrayy:
This is the North we're talking about. The governors have little to no influence on who they vote for presidential elections.

I'm the 2003/2007/2011 elections, the North voted massively for Buhari even though he barely had any governors in his camp.

If Atiku is seen as the Northern champion the way Buhari was, then he would get those same votes.

Although what you mentioned about 25% is valid. The election is most likely going to go into a run off.

From 2003-2021, the northern governors delivered 30-40% for PDP and that is what Tinubu needs

HIGHESTPOPORI:
So tinubu would win Kwankwanso in Kano?

He will win obi

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You still think a Gov or senate president would determing the votes of all the state,Obi did not have any gov in 2023 and won 12 State and tinubu even in Lagos

Exactly why he didn't win

HIGHESTPOPORI:
A candidate don't need SE to win if he gets the block votes in North.But no Buhari now to deliver North to Tinubu,Atiku would get more votes in North than tinubu,even Kwankwanso would bring more Northern votes for Obi compared to Datti

The votes Tinubu will get up north will be enough

Svoboda:
Something we may need to realize is that northerners do a lot of skirt and blouse voting, especially since the inception of the 4th republic. You may see Atiku win most states while a lot of APC govs are returned in the north. It happened under Objs second tenure and under Gej in 2011. In both cases, their saving grace was that they both were well grounded in the south to nullify what ever they were expected to lose in the north. Same won't be said of Tinubu, who is the weakest southern president among the three in terms of broadbased southern support, no thanks to obi.

Don't be surprised Atiku has reached a form of accord with some northern politicians openly singing Tinubus praise in the open. Thank God you mentioned the infighting in Zamfara between the gov and Yari. A lot might be going on underground.What even makes you think the prospect of Tinubu ditching them once he gets over the line, like he did to el rufai, won't rankle at them inwardly?

As for Tambuwal, he willingly conceded his senatorial ticket and is everywhere working his socks off for Atiku now.

My dear, an average politician will prefer to reach an agreement with Tinubu than Atiku. There is no riff in zamfara APC and zamfara ADC is too weak to benefit. Kabiru marafa that would have helped you guys have left. That you are banking on secret underground deal shows you that Atiku has no hope...
The sokoto ADC is divided between the Tambuwal and Gada faction. Tambuwal has proven to be very untrustworthy so no one will take him serious. Tambuwal as governor won sokoto for Atiku with just 3000 votes. Do the maths

Akpakomiza2:
He won there because the obi wave was massive there. It has dissipated

Dissipated to Tinubu ba? At this rate, the idea is to deny Tinubus chances in the south as much as he can.

Coolgent:
Im on the opinion that majority of northern Governors are either covertly avoiding campaign for Tinubu or secretly working for ADC in the presidential election, so that ADC would sacrifice its Gubernatorial election in those states

Is that what happened in 2023? ADC candidates are too weak to trouble APC

Svoboda:
Going by your logic, the northern govs even in PDP won't have ditched Gej for Buhari in 2015, because they'd have had to wait 16 years to get a shot at the presidency. Politics isn't black and white o.

They ditched him because most of them where in their second term and the sentiments was overwhelmingly Tinubu. Is that the same now?

Akpakomiza2:
Two emirs already endorsed Tinubu

Tv endorsement ba? Only two emirs control the whole north?

Akpakomiza2:
They ditched him because most of them where in their second term and the sentiments was overwhelmingly Tinubu. Is that the same now?

North doesn't make so much noise on social media. What's masking large anti Tinubu sentiment is the Lagos Ibadan media.

Svoboda:
Dissipated to Tinubu ba? At this rate, the idea is to deny Tinubus chances in the south as much as he can.

Yes to Tinubu, he has made massive progress in both states. Most of Atiku's votes and structures are now with Tinubu. Atiku is the one being denied. South is tinubu vs obi, north is Tinubu vs Atiku so Tinubu remains the common factor and biggest beneficiary

Svoboda:
North doesn't make so much noise on social media. What's masking large anti Tinubu sentiment is the Lagos Ibadan media.

Lol, right from 2013 the pulse was for Tinubu sir. Everywhere you went to the north, it was sai buhari. The noise for Atiku in 2023 was higher. Better accept the reality

Svoboda:
Tv endorsement ba? Only two emirs control the whole north?

No emir has ever done any endorsement even for buhari. But why can't anyone endorse atiku? Is it not obvious Atiku is unpopular

DoTheNeedful:
I understand where you are coming from. However, politicians like Kwakwanso have huge egos. He will do everything within his power to make the OK ticket win Kano, including with vote buying and rigging. As for Atiku, I still believe he might do better than Tinubu in Kano. There is an anti-Tinubu pitch going strong in the North today. This is not 2023.

Overall, I still believe Tinubu will win 2027 elections. Tinubu is a street politician and he will do everything to win.

Tinubu will bury Atiku in kano

mrvitalis:
Are you serious ?
PDP structure in south west is very strong
Now atiku is without it how would he get it ?

Majority of PDP are now ADC.
with Majority of Notherners voted APC in 2023 will vote for Atiku this time around. Tinubu fvckup with with north

Make I cast you the update, go polymarket go bet if you like.

That Northern electoral well that Tinubu draws votes from in elections will be used by everyone in 2027 and with the temperature of Nigeria now in terms of poverty and insecurity, I don't think you would find anyone outside the SW who would prefer not to vote a zebra into power than allow Tinubu stay there.

Obidients don finally understand where the electoral well for Nigeria dey and the OK ticket only needs to be competitive in the North to win the election based on their margin of loss in the SW and winning margin in the SS and SE.

Atiku on the other hand is running a purely Northern campaign to take the majority votes from 15 million votes in NE,NW and NC.
With the crowded field in the South, Southern votes will be heavily divided, an Atiku with 3 million votes above every candidate from the North is a very dangerous Atiku as he will get the highest votes in the whole election and drag the election to a second round.
An Atiku with 3 million Northern votes ahead of every candidate can't be overtaken by any candidate from the crowded Southern field, as it's also impossible for Atiku to get zero votes from the South.
By the way Atiku knows he can't win outright, he can't get 25% in 24 states, all his permutations are on the Northern votes and the highest number of votes to drag the election to a 2nd round.

Tinubu miscalculation
Bushmeat go finally catch hunter when Wike go outplay himself use court deregister either ADC or NDC.
This particular error go cause NDC/ADC to collapse into themselves and ignite the AtikuObi coalition wey go make your kinsman OTP before election day.
In this instance, there will be no 2nd round election, this same INEC go announce Tinubu defeat before 6pm on election day.
Go polymarket!!!

Bobodee09:
If we say make una put money were yout mouth is.
...una go run.

Tinubu will win easily come jan 2027....200k bet on that...are you in??

Basic123:
God Bless you.
I started following Tinubu in 2011

I have followed him through all his obstacles.Nil obstacle has ever stopped him!

So why was he not Buhari’s vice president in 2015, even though he made the expired soldier president?

Why All Progressives Congress Rejected Tinubu As Vice-President In 2015 – Voice Of Nigeria Director, Okechukwu

The Director-General of the Voice of Nigeria (VON), Osita Okechukwu, has claimed that the ruling All Progressives Congress wanted to avoid a Muslim/Muslim ticket and had to drop a former Lagos State Governor, Bola Tinubu, from contesting as a running mate with President Muhammadu Buhari during the 2015 Presidential election.

Okechukwu stated that the APC leadership decided to choose Professor Yemi Osinbajo to run alongside with Buhari in 2015 to lay to rest the Muslim/Muslim controversy.

https://saharareporters.com/2021/07/22/why-all-progressives-congress-rejected-tinubu-vice-president-2015-%E2%80%93-voice-nigeria?fbclid=IwY2xjawTTFjhwZG9mA2V4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDzQwOTk2MjYyMzA4NTYwOQABHkJjCmKA9i2mvUWqQl6HiYqQK-VE6dpn_wzKzlrDGEmCE-EFxEAhH99QLErQ_aem_bYat4zhCKXmYb2wsVsvXTA#goog_rewarded

U

franvincoop:
Tinubu is the only candidate as of this minute you are reading my comments that can meet the requirement to have 25% votes in atleast 24 states.
Neither Peter Obi nor Atiku is going to get 25% votes in 24 states in 2027, neither did they get it in 2023.

What Tinubu cannot get is the highest number of votes total.
Between Atiku and Obi, one of them will get the highest number of votes in 2027.
Prepare your mind for a 2nd round election in February or March 2026.
Atiku or Obi will either be a candidate in the 2nd round or a Kingmaker.

If wishes were horses. Hope you people have your voters card to force it to a second round. Registration ends today cvr.inecnigeria.org