₦airaland Forum

Adeleke won 2022 by only 28,344 votes—403,371 to 375,027. In 2026, watch the margins in these ten LGAs.

1. EDE NORTH — Adeleke's Margin Meter

2022: Adeleke +14,328

APC doesn't need to win. If Adeleke retains +14,000, his fortress holds. Cut it towards +10,000**, and APC has gained thousands statewide without winning the LGA.

2. IREWOLE — Oyebamiji's Home Test

2022: APC +3,982

Oyebamiji should improve APC's margin here. Merely repeating 2022 is respectable; approaching parity would be alarming for APC.

3. EJIGBO — The Salaam Test

2022: Adeleke +3,710

Watch whose votes ADC takes. Eroding Adeleke's margin helps APC; draining APC helps Adeleke.

4. IWO — Pure Swing

2022: APC +507

Virtually tied in 2022. A several-thousand-vote margin either way would signal a major western shift.

5. OSOGBO — Adeleke's Firewall

2022: Adeleke +7,449

APC needn't win. If Adeleke retains +7,000–8,000, his Central firewall holds. Cut it towards +3,000–4,000, and the statewide mathematics changes.

6. ODO-OTIN — The Oyinlola Test

2022: Adeleke +521

Almost a tie. With Oyinlola's current alignment, APC should be capable of flipping it if elite endorsements are truly transferable.

7. OBOKUN — The Wole Oke Test.

2022: Adeleke +3,848

If Adeleke retains his old margin, Wole Oke's defection may have generated more headlines than votes. If APC flips Obokun, Ijesaland may genuinely be moving.

8. ILESA WEST — The Ijesa Test

2022: Adeleke +2,992

With APC already strong elsewhere in Ijesaland, flipping Ilesa West could rapidly erase Adeleke's old regional advantage.

9. IFE CENTRAL — APC Must Win Bigger

2022: APC +4,348

APC already won here. The test is whether it expands that margin after the political realignments.

10. IFE NORTH — The Warning Light.

2022: Adeleke +395

If APC has truly consolidated Ifeland, this should flip. If Adeleke retains it, his personal vote may be surviving the defect
HOW TO READ ELECTION NIGHT

Don't merely count LGAs. Watch margins.

If Adeleke remains dominant in Ede, holds Osogbo strongly and survives Obokun and Ife North, his coalition is holding.

If APC cuts Ede and Osogbo, flips places like Obokun and Odo-Otin, while expanding Irewole and Ife margins, Adeleke's 28,344-vote cushion can disappear quickly.

And if Salaam surges in Ejigbo, Iwo and the West, ask one question:

Whose votes is ADC taking?

Osun may be decided by 2,000 votes saved here, 3,000 gained there and strongholds becoming slightly less strong.

In a state decided by just 28,344 votes last time, margins—not the number of LGAs won—may tell the real story.

Omo, this is going to be a strong battle

What are your sources for reference?

We like transparency and information that can be independently verified.

Adeleke all the way.
APC has no place in our heart

Iwo/Obokun - ambo


Ede/Osogbo/Ife C - Inole

Though CharlesCNG....I know where you stand sha 😂
press9jatv knows where I stand 😂

Eye neck has already selected their winner

Have never see Zambia 🇿🇲 story or news on this forum before

Dancing Governor is gone

Chijeep:
Adeleke all the way.
APC has no place in our heart

you no choose NDC again 8

Tinubu praise singer over to you

Will Tinubu allow voters in those places to decide who will win?

Yesteryears democrat who is today tyrant.

Apc is too desperate and blood thirsty
I hope they lose and chop disgrace

givedemwotowoto:
What are your sources for reference?

beer parlours in Osogbo and Ede

Very impressive analysis...

Ademola Adeleke is winning this election thereafter he will handover to his cousin David Adeleke aka Davido.

Chijeep:
Adeleke all the way.
APC has no place in our heart

In whose heart? One person cannot say we.

Add the over voting that happened in Ede and Owode area to Adeleke which gave him the numbers back then because that will not be allowed to stand this time around because the cabal in the presidency back then scheming against Tinubu are no longer there now.

So Adeleke is a goner.....he should go and dance in Davido wack music videos let see.

The key thing is turnout
Which candidate can mobilize a large voters turnout..
Endorsement dont change a single thing ...
if your people dont go out and vote ...

Chijeep:
Adeleke all the way.
APC has no place in our heart

Stop fooling yourself— Adeleke stands no chance in the Osun election. The odds are against him. Aso rock is aware of his bigotry— he concentrated development in his native Ede. He is a gonner, trust me.

hoping he dance his way to victory

My own be say let the Guber aspirants and the people of the state conduct themselves during and after the election.

All the best

That's for you to know that we supporting obi are not partisan

Imalwayshorny:
you no choose NDC again 8

Willie2015:
The key thing is turnout
Which candidate can mobilize a large voters turnout..
Endorsement dont change a single thing ...
if your people dont go out and vote ...

Money or should I say voters bribery will play significant role in the Osun Guber election.

The mistake of the EFCC freezing the account of the state unjustly will further restrict FG from interfering

The funny part about this analysis, The ADC candidate is not factor in that analysis

This reminds me of Ife Central, back then in my OAU days, Ajebamdele iremo ward 8 was my political base. We really run the show for iyiola those years. Politics has always been a dirty game. If you know you know.

The fight would be a tough one 🥵

Very warp analysis.

Well, you're entitled to your opinion

APC cannot win 5 local government in today's Osun state. If you are not in Osun, you won't know that Adeleke has inscribed himself in the heart of the masses. Ife, Oshogbo, Ilesa are locked down for him. Saturday is not so far. Tinubu should just allow free and fair election. Sikena.

Imalwayshorny:
you no choose NDC again 8

Is that you at d. P?

You look damn so sexy

So Zambia dey get beautiful sexy girls

The dancer shouldske sure he doesn't forget anything in the government house sha

I must tell you the truth Oyinlola is not relevant in Odo Otin. He has no structure even PDP won his pulling unit during the last election. He is not a factor at all

givedemwotowoto:
What are your sources for reference?

We like transparency and information that can be independently verified.

Sources for personal analysis? Who do you this thing?

ojuu4u:
Will Tinubu allow voters in those places to decide who will win?

Yesteryears democrat who is today tyrant.

.
Cry well well. Cry and wail

Christlike01:
Stop fooling yourself— Adeleke stands no chance in the Osun election. The odds are against him. Aso rock is aware of his bigotry— he concentrated development in his native Ede. He is a gonner, trust me.

Adeleke has constructed roads across
all 30 LGs in the states
I was in Ilesa during the crowning of the Oba
(Ilesa/Akure–Brewery–Palace dualisation is a good job
That road has been poor for over 50 years ..

I passed thru Ife to see a friend in OAU...
There is a lot of work going on that road...
Esp Lagere Flyover and surrounding road works
In fact.. that road has peen poor for over 30 years.....