₦airaland Forum

enemyofprogress:
beer parlours in Osogbo and Ede

Adeleke is winning Osun reelection APC don't have say here

Adeleke Jackson I wish you the best

CharlesCNG:
Adeleke won 2022 by only 28,344 votes—403,371 to 375,027. In 2026, watch the margins in these ten LGAs.

1. EDE NORTH — Adeleke's Margin Meter

2022: Adeleke +14,328

APC doesn't need to win. If Adeleke retains +14,000, his fortress holds. Cut it towards +10,000**, and APC has gained thousands statewide without winning the LGA.

2. IREWOLE — Oyebamiji's Home Test

2022: APC +3,982

Oyebamiji should improve APC's margin here. Merely repeating 2022 is respectable; approaching parity would be alarming for APC.

3. EJIGBO — The Salaam Test

2022: Adeleke +3,710

Watch whose votes ADC takes. Eroding Adeleke's margin helps APC; draining APC helps Adeleke.

4. IWO — Pure Swing

2022: APC +507

Virtually tied in 2022. A several-thousand-vote margin either way would signal a major western shift.

5. OSOGBO — Adeleke's Firewall

2022: Adeleke +7,449

APC needn't win. If Adeleke retains +7,000–8,000, his Central firewall holds. Cut it towards +3,000–4,000, and the statewide mathematics changes.

6. ODO-OTIN — The Oyinlola Test

2022: Adeleke +521

Almost a tie. With Oyinlola's current alignment, APC should be capable of flipping it if elite endorsements are truly transferable.

7. OBOKUN — The Wole Oke Test.

2022: Adeleke +3,848

If Adeleke retains his old margin, Wole Oke's defection may have generated more headlines than votes. If APC flips Obokun, Ijesaland may genuinely be moving.

8. ILESA WEST — The Ijesa Test

2022: Adeleke +2,992

With APC already strong elsewhere in Ijesaland, flipping Ilesa West could rapidly erase Adeleke's old regional advantage.

9. IFE CENTRAL — APC Must Win Bigger

2022: APC +4,348

APC already won here. The test is whether it expands that margin after the political realignments.

10. IFE NORTH — The Warning Light.

2022: Adeleke +395

If APC has truly consolidated Ifeland, this should flip. If Adeleke retains it, his personal vote may be surviving the defect
HOW TO READ ELECTION NIGHT

Don't merely count LGAs. Watch margins.

If Adeleke remains dominant in Ede, holds Osogbo strongly and survives Obokun and Ife North, his coalition is holding.

If APC cuts Ede and Osogbo, flips places like Obokun and Odo-Otin, while expanding Irewole and Ife margins, Adeleke's 28,344-vote cushion can disappear quickly.

And if Salaam surges in Ejigbo, Iwo and the West, ask one question:

Whose votes is ADC taking?

Osun may be decided by 2,000 votes saved here, 3,000 gained there and strongholds becoming slightly less strong.

In a state decided by just 28,344 votes last time, margins—not the number of LGAs won—may tell the real story.

Why are Osun state elections always very tight. Going by the analysis above, this will also be very close.

Some election results have felt like luck over the years and this may not be any different.

fergie001:
Iwo/Obokun - ambo


Ede/Osogbo/Ife C - Inole

Though CharlesCNG....I know where you stand sha 😂
press9jatv knows where I stand 😂

At least be logical this time. Imole won't get anything in Ife. He will likely not win Osogbo

Chijeep:
Adeleke all the way.
APC has no place in our heart

in your heart
Shey you know Wetin I have in my heart and other people

Wole Oke can't win Obokun. I sure pa.

fergie001:
Iwo/Obokun - ambo


Ede/Osogbo/Ife C - Inole

Though CharlesCNG....I know where you stand sha 😂
press9jatv knows where I stand 😂

Ambo or Anlo can't win Obokun.

fergie001:
Iwo/Obokun - ambo

Ede/Osogbo/Ife C - Inole

Though CharlesCNG....I know where you stand sha 😂
press9jatv knows where I stand 😂

Ife Central and Ife East is going heavily for Ambo. Adereti Ambo deputy is from Ife Central, Adeleke deputy also from Ife, but Ife East is passionately hated by everyone. He will lose even his unit.

Ife North is going Ambo. Ife South is too close to call.
Obokun and Oriade is going Ambo.
I don't see Adeleke winning more than in Ede North and Ede South and maybe Orolu.

olosk:
Wole Oke can't win Obokun. I sure pa.

Anytime any day, Wole Oke will defeat anyone heavily in Obokun and Oriade.

Toredola:
I must tell you the truth Oyinlola is not relevant in Odo Otin. He has no structure even PDP won his pulling unit during the last election. He is not a factor at all

An ex governor and a Prince? By the way he has always been in PDP. Odò Otin will go APC way, mark my word

givedemwotowoto:
What are your sources for reference?

We like transparency and information that can be independently verified.

The OP knows Osun very well,his analysis was very accurate,but we have two populated LG in Osogbo and other local govts matters a lot as well for who ever wanted to be a Governor in Osun.

Akpakomiza2:
At least be logical this time. Imole won't get anything in Ife. He will likely not win Osogbo

Osogbo?
Ok!

Zico5:
APC cannot win 5 local government in today's Osun state. If you are not in Osun, you won't know that Adeleke has inscribed himself in the heart of the masses. Ife, Oshogbo, Ilesa are locked down for him. Saturday is not so far. Tinubu should just allow free and fair election. Sikena.

unless if you are not in osun right now, right from 4days ago, things have started changing to the extend that only God knows who will win this coming Saturday between the two giants.

fergie001:
Osogbo?
Ok!

He won osogbo last time because of Aregbe. Is Aregbe with him now? Even if he wins there again, it will be very very narrow

olajizz01:
The OP knows Osun very well,his analysis was very accurate,but we have two populated LG in Osogbo and other local govts matters a lot as well for who ever wanted to be a Governor in Osun.

The op should have also added Boripe, Olorunda

olosk:
Wole Oke can't win Obokun. I sure pa.

What of Francis Fadahunsi

Gbajure:
Ife Central and Ife East is going heavily for Ambo. Adereti Ambo deputy is from Ife Central, Adeleke deputy also from Ife, but Ife East is passionately hated by everyone. He will lose even his unit.

Ife North is going Ambo. Ife South is too close to call.
Obokun and Oriade is going Ambo.
I don't see Adeleke winning more than in Ede North and Ede South and maybe Orolu.

It seems you really know Osun very well. Ife will go APC. The problem is Ilesa/ Atakumosa, osogbo and Ejigbo axis

Willie2015:
Adeleke has constructed roads across
all 30 LGs in the states
I was in Ilesa during the crowning of the Oba
(Ilesa/Akure–Brewery–Palace dualisation is a good job
That road has been poor for over 50 years ..

I passed thru Ife to see a friend in OAU...
There is a lot of work going on that road...
Esp Lagere Flyover and surrounding road works
In fact.. that road has peen poor for over 30 years.....

True. The main road that passes through Ila Orangun is being dualised. Township roads in Otan Aiyegbaju (Boluwaduro LG HQ) were tarred according to the residents and they're happy.

Gbajure:
Ife Central and Ife East is going heavily for Ambo. Adereti Ambo deputy is from Ife Central, Adeleke deputy also from Ife, but Ife East is passionately hated by everyone. He will lose even his unit.

Ife North is going Ambo. Ife South is too close to call.
Obokun and Oriade is going Ambo.
I don't see Adeleke winning more than in Ede North and Ede South and maybe Orolu.

fergie001 you don start your fake permutations. Osogbo/Olorunoda - Ambo
Ife federal constituency -Ambo
Iwo - Ambo

Ambo will defeat Adeleke in landslide victory in this Saturday Governorship election. Adeleke's defeat is imminent

olosk:
Ambo or Anlo can't win Obokun.

Akpakomiza2:
At least be logical this time. Imole won't get anything in Ife. He will likely not win Osogbo

Ambo will defeat Adeleke in Osogbo federal constituency and Ife federal constituency

How is Ayedaade missing from the list?

ojuu4u:
Will Tinubu allow voters in those places to decide who will win?

Yesteryears democrat who is today tyrant.

allow how
Will he stop them from voting?
If he can do that then no need for election na

MIKOLOWISKA:
allow how
Will he stop them from voting?
If he can do that then no need for election na

There are many ways that the aspiring dictator can allow people to vote and still manipulate elections, which is what his APC messianic predecessor of fake integrity did in 2018, with Aso Rock remote control for inconclusive results.

press9jatv:
Ambo will defeat Adeleke in Osogbo federal constituency and Ife federal constituency

Dreams die first


That’s the title of a Harold Robbins novel.

Osun people everywhere are dedicated to working together for the continuation of imọlẹ Adeleke’s better by far governance.

Willie2015:
Adeleke has constructed roads across
all 30 LGs in the states
I was in Ilesa during the crowning of the Oba
(Ilesa/Akure–Brewery–Palace dualisation is a good job
That road has been poor for over 50 years ..

I passed thru Ife to see a friend in OAU...
There is a lot of work going on that road...
Esp Lagere Flyover and surrounding road works
In fact.. that road has peen poor for over 30 years.....

It’s quite impressive that the governor has done so much in road construction but why should we limit government performance to just roads?

What of other basic functions of government to employ workers who are paid well, promptly and fully to make services and utilities available for all

saintbillion:
Eye neck has already selected their winner

Why would INEC, Amupitan, Tinubu and APC ignore the lessons of 1983 and 1966 by selecting a winner against the will of the people?

Why would they labour in vain to kill the will of the voters

This was four years ago when the people ignored APC propaganda against imọlẹ Adeleke.

Adeleke will crush APC now that the people have seen the difference between his light and the darkness of Tinubu evil party.

CharlesCNG:
Adeleke won 2022 by only 28,344 votes—403,371 to 375,027. In 2026, watch the margins in these ten LGAs.

1. EDE NORTH — Adeleke's Margin Meter

2022: Adeleke +14,328

APC doesn't need to win. If Adeleke retains +14,000, his fortress holds. Cut it towards +10,000**, and APC has gained thousands statewide without winning the LGA.

2. IREWOLE — Oyebamiji's Home Test

2022: APC +3,982

Oyebamiji should improve APC's margin here. Merely repeating 2022 is respectable; approaching parity would be alarming for APC.

3. EJIGBO — The Salaam Test

2022: Adeleke +3,710

Watch whose votes ADC takes. Eroding Adeleke's margin helps APC; draining APC helps Adeleke.

4. IWO — Pure Swing

2022: APC +507

Virtually tied in 2022. A several-thousand-vote margin either way would signal a major western shift.

5. OSOGBO — Adeleke's Firewall

2022: Adeleke +7,449

APC needn't win. If Adeleke retains +7,000–8,000, his Central firewall holds. Cut it towards +3,000–4,000, and the statewide mathematics changes.

6. ODO-OTIN — The Oyinlola Test

2022: Adeleke +521

Almost a tie. With Oyinlola's current alignment, APC should be capable of flipping it if elite endorsements are truly transferable.

7. OBOKUN — The Wole Oke Test.

2022: Adeleke +3,848

If Adeleke retains his old margin, Wole Oke's defection may have generated more headlines than votes. If APC flips Obokun, Ijesaland may genuinely be moving.

8. ILESA WEST — The Ijesa Test

2022: Adeleke +2,992

With APC already strong elsewhere in Ijesaland, flipping Ilesa West could rapidly erase Adeleke's old regional advantage.

9. IFE CENTRAL — APC Must Win Bigger

2022: APC +4,348

APC already won here. The test is whether it expands that margin after the political realignments.

10. IFE NORTH — The Warning Light.

2022: Adeleke +395

If APC has truly consolidated Ifeland, this should flip. If Adeleke retains it, his personal vote may be surviving the defect
HOW TO READ ELECTION NIGHT

Don't merely count LGAs. Watch margins.

If Adeleke remains dominant in Ede, holds Osogbo strongly and survives Obokun and Ife North, his coalition is holding.

If APC cuts Ede and Osogbo, flips places like Obokun and Odo-Otin, while expanding Irewole and Ife margins, Adeleke's 28,344-vote cushion can disappear quickly.

And if Salaam surges in Ejigbo, Iwo and the West, ask one question:

Whose votes is ADC taking?

Osun may be decided by 2,000 votes saved here, 3,000 gained there and strongholds becoming slightly less strong.

In a state decided by just 28,344 votes last time, margins—not the number of LGAs won—may tell the real story.

anonimi:
Dreams die first


That’s the title of a Harold Robbins novel.

Osun people everywhere are dedicated to working together for the continuation of imọlẹ Adeleke’s better by far governance.

😂 which Osun people? You are not in Osun State, you don't know what's going on. Adeleke's defeat is imminent. He's a goner.

Christlike01:
Stop fooling yourself— Adeleke stands no chance in the Osun election. The odds are against him. Aso rock is aware of his bigotry— he concentrated development in his native Ede. He is a gonner, trust me.

you are implying that it is also rock that will determine the winner? 😂

I am from osun and in osun. We are voting adeleke. Ambo is very unpopular here. 9 out of 10 people I talk to are supporting adeleke

press9jatv:
😂 which Osun people? You are not in Osun State, you don't know what's going on. Adeleke's defeat is imminent. He's a goner.

ogbeni the same osun I am from and live in. You are working for money. Your opinions are biased because you are doing this to get paid. Ambo is extremely unpopular at least in osogbo where I am based.