₦airaland Forum

Kwara
Kogi
Niger
Benue
Zamfara
Sokoto
Katsina
Borno
Yobe
Taraba

Fergie001
Seun
Seunmsg
Cajal
Saintkel

Garfield/Senatordave this your analysis is delusional
You even added Sokoto Yobe and Katsina which he lost 4 years ago
I won’t be surprised if you add Anambra amongst the list of states he wins

Akpakomiza2:
Kwara
Kogi
Niger
Benue
Zamfara
Sokoto
Katsina
Borno
Yobe
Taraba

Fergie001
Seun
Seunmsg
Cajal
Saintkel

He can never win zamfara, taraba, yobe, lasting and sokoto.. Even if he right which is not possible this time around..

hegelian:
He can never win zamfara, taraba, yobe, lasting and sokoto.. Even if he right which is not possible this time around..

He will, he got his biggest victory in the core north from zamfara. Yari the godfather of zamfara is now campaign DG. Taraba usually goes to the sitting governor's party. He lost sokoto narrowly so he should win this time.

Op, Buhari's influence in APC is now ZERO. Tinubu will be roundly defeated in the core North, except Bornu.

FCT ABUJA

I have my doubts about Sokoto and Katsina. Both states were almost 50-50 in 2023 and I still think it will be very close again in 2027. Yes, the PDP structure that Atiku relied on in 2023 is now dead but the ADC has build a very strong structure in the North east and west. For now, I can't call the two states for APC as far as the presidential election is concerned. The other states, I agree with you. Also, I think APC will win Plateau state. Kaduna is also 50-50 as it seems the entire southern kaduna will swing towards Tinubu this time around.

Validated:
Op, Buhari's influence in APC is now ZERO. Tinubu will be roundly defeated in the core North, except Bornu.

Beaten by Obi or Atiku

hegelian:
He can never win zamfara, taraba, yobe, lasting and sokoto.. Even if he right which is not possible this time around..

Lol he won Zamfara in 2023. Is it now that Yari is the DG and the sitting Governor is in APC that he will lose the state?

Even if he won’t win those other states, he will get over 40% of the votes.

Tinubu getting 40% in any state in the core North is as good as winning. Atiku won’t be able to make up the numbers anywhere in the NC or the three South.

LegendHero:
Lol he won Zamfara in 2023. Is it now that Yari is the DG and the sitting Governor is in APC that he will lose the state?

Even if he won’t win those other states, he will get over 40% of the votes.

Tinubu getting 40% in any state in the core North is as good as winning. Atiku won’t be able to make up the numbers anywhere in the NC or the three South.

Tinubu electoral path is easier. All he needs to do is to maintain his 2023 maths and he's home and dry. He can afford to score 30% in the core north and still win

seunmsg:
I have my doubts about Sokoto and Katsina. Both states were almost 50-50 in 2023 and I still think it will be very close again in 2027. Yes, the PDP structure that Atiku relied on in 2023 is now dead but the ADC has build a very strong structure in the North east and west. For now, I can't call the two states for APC as far as the presidential election is concerned. The other states, I agree with you. Also, I think APC will win Plateau state. Kaduna is also 50-50 as it seems the entire southern kaduna will swing towards Tinubu this time around.

For sokoto, Tambuwal was governor and on the ballot. Tinubu was leading until last minute results from Tambuwal LGA gave Atiku a 3k margin victory. Not everyone in that Tambuwal faction joined ADC. I agree their Guber candidate Manir Dan Iya is formidable.
For Katsina, the ADC or then pdp is heavily depleted and divided. Majigiri, shema, Inuwa mustapha, Lawal Daura, Dahiru mangal etc have all left leaving only Sen Abba kaita. APC can easily win here. I think these two states are easier than pleateu

Let him campaign in any of these states first if he can and dares.

Akpakomiza2:
He will, he got his biggest victory in the core north from zamfara. Yari the godfather of zamfara is now campaign DG. Taraba usually goes to the sitting governor's party. He lost sokoto narrowly so he should win this time.

Yaro baka da labari? The is done doing Tinubu

Akpakomiza2:
Tinubu electoral path is easier. All he needs to do is to maintain his 2023 maths and he's home and dry. He can afford to score 30% in the core north and still win

Exactly. The main benefit of Tinubu in this election is that PDP is comatose.

Without PDP structure and governor support, Atiku cannot amount to anything in the South.

So for every margin of 10% -20% loss in any state in the core North, Tinubu can cover it with the NC + SW + SS.

Kano is the most important state in the NW and if Kwakwanso stay true to Peter Obi, it means Atiku is finished. If Tinubu gets a >500k replay, he will cover for any loss margin in at least 3 - 4 states in the core North.

Winning in the north will be a tough call for Tinubu.

LegendHero:
Exactly. The main benefit of Tinubu in this election is that PDP is comatose.

Without PDP structure and governor support, Atiku cannot amount to anything in the South.

So for every margin of 10% -20% loss in any state in the core North, Tinubu can cover it with the NC + SW + SS.

Kano is the most important state in the NW and if Kwakwanso stay true to Peter Obi, it means Atiku is finished. If Tinubu gets a >500k replay, he will cover for any loss margin in at least 3 - 4 states in the core North.

agbero chairman will win all the state . agbero chairman till 6080

slivertongue:
Yaro baka da labari? The is done doing Tinubu

They will manage him till 2023

WorkTheTalk:
Winning in the north will be a tough call for Tinubu.

He doesn't need to win

I think The President has strategically grouped the North into 1) North Central where his largest northern votes should come in -
- Kwara,
- Kogi,
- Plateau,
- Nassarawa,
- Niger

2) Then North East -
- Borno
- Taraba (I wonder how Taraba isn’t supposed to be North Central, Lol)
- Zamfara
- Yobe

Adamawa - may be tight challenge btw incumbent governor and Atiku

3) Finally North West -
- Kaduna
- Kano


I can’t say for other Northern states such as Bauchi, Sokoto, Kastina, etc. Those will be tight.

WorkTheTalk:
Winning in the north will be a tough call for Tinubu.

I think Tinubu has intelligently strategize the “North” into separate Zones for his political advantage

Nothing like single/united “North” anywhere!

LegendHero:
Lol he won Zamfara in 2023. Is it now that Yari is the DG and the sitting Governor is in APC that he will lose the state?

Even if he won’t win those other states, he will get over 40% of the votes.

Tinubu getting 40% in any state in the core North is as good as winning. Atiku won’t be able to make up the numbers anywhere in the NC or the three South.

Tinubu won the election with about 2million votes (the lowest in Nigerias history) in 2023 when the suffering was not much like we have now and today you are claiming he will win massively because we are your people who enjoys suffering like milk abi?


You have started this emotional analysis again, I still remember all you were yappping here few weeks ago in the case of Osun.


Anyway, continue making yourselves happy.


🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

LegendHero:
Lol he won Zamfara in 2023. Is it now that Yari is the DG and the sitting Governor is in APC that he will lose the state?

Even if he won’t win those other states, he will get over 40% of the votes.

Tinubu getting 40% in any state in the core North is as good as winning. Atiku won’t be able to make up the numbers anywhere in the NC or the three South.

we hear you..enjoy your delusion and if its rigging u bank on, we go soon see how it all gonna be

Akpakomiza2:
He will, he got his biggest victory in the core north from zamfara. Yari the godfather of zamfara is now campaign DG. Taraba usually goes to the sitting governor's party. He lost sokoto narrowly so he should win this time.

2023 is different from 2026...abi people are animals that you just command to vote and they follow...the hardship and killing is felt more in NW and zamfara as a flashing point...all our eyes go soon clear ok

hegelian:
2023 is different from 2026...abi people are animals that you just command to vote and they follow...the hardship and killing is felt more in NW and zamfara as a flashing point...all our eyes go soon clear ok

The hardship was there since 2019 yet it didn't change anything. Atiku is not a good option and he isn't close to the masses. The northern political bigwigs control large numbers of voters

A solid assessment of his prospects in Tinubu's key northern states is certainly warranted. He's practically guaranteed to win in those areas.

Toh

MEGAWATCH:
Tinubu won the election with about 2million votes (the lowest in Nigerias history) in 2023 when the suffering was not much like we have now and today you are claiming he will win massively because we are your people who enjoys suffering like milk abi?


You have started this emotional analysis again, I still remember all you were yappping here few weeks ago in the case of Osun.


Anyway, continue making yourselves happy.


🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Shagari won with the lowest margin in 1979, less than a million

hegelian:
we hear you..enjoy your delusion and if its rigging u bank on, we go soon see how it all gonna be

Which one is delusion? That Yari is DG and is powerful in zamfara

Akpakomiza2:
Shagari won with the lowest margin in 1979, less than a million

Thanks and he also ended as 4 years leader.


😎😎

MEGAWATCH:
Thanks and he also ended as 4 years leader.


😎😎

He won reelection actually but was removed via a coup. Therefore Tinubu will be reelected

Akpakomiza2:
He won reelection actually but was removed via a coup. Therefore Tinubu will be reelected

He will most likely not go back to the office as Shagari didn't.


History has a way of repeating itself you know?


😂

MEGAWATCH:
He will most likely not go back to the office as Shagari didn't.


History has a way of repeating itself you know?


😂

Shagari won reelection sir and served almost a year of his second term before removal. Obi and atiku cannot defeat him

It's only a blinded sentiment that would give Pitobi and Atiku a chance against Tinubu

The only chance these guys have would only be if they worked together.

All these shout of hunger and insecurity no fly reach anywhere. Discerning Nigerians know the effort the Tinunu administration is applying to Confront our challenges.
Instead of opposition to tell us what they will do, they are busy searching for Tinubu first school leaving certificate. They are busy wasting fund on a US based scammer