₦airaland Forum

BlueRayDick:
Nobody is using Colonialism as an excuse for the shiity state most African states are today. What we are saying is clear; Some of the so called barbaric acts that were stopped and credited to influence of imperialists; those acts would've been stopped even if colonialism didn't happen.

Asian dynasties like China, Japan, etc that were not colonized had traditional beliefs and acts that were considered as barbaric at some point by imperialist. Today those acts and beliefs do not hold sway, and nobody is saying it's because of imperialists. Why? Because they were never colonized. Their societies evolved and they did away with those acts, beliefs and practices; the same way Africans would've done if they were also not colonized.

It's self-hate as an African that will make you thank people who captured and enslaved your ancestors because you believe the crime of colonization was the only reason Ritual killings and other barbaric acts stopped in African societies.

Una don dey change premise of the initial discussion and about to make it seem like we are saying The imperialist is responsible for the underdevelopment in African societies in 2026. No that's not what this discussion is about.

The cultural adaptability of Nigeria or black nations in general cannot be compared with what's obtainable in these Asian countries you've mentioned.

There's really no way to tell exactly how left to our own devices we'd have evolved, what's apparent though is how we're evolving in the areas the white man left malmformed by design, or didn't touch.

We're still blaming the white man for almagamation and the dysfunction of our police system till date.

PapalsBull:
Child marriage -- you may say it is religious - North
Labeling a child a witch - South (Akwa Ibom)
Osu outcast system-- people whose grandparents were outcast are still being referred as such. East
Ababorku - West.

They may not be barbaric though.

Just imagine...not forgetting the many variations of ritual killing that still exist.

Odds are left to our own devices, we'd still have been struggling with problems like the killing of twin children to some extent.

PapalsBull:
Child marriage -- you may say it is religious - North
Labeling a child a witch - South (Akwa Ibom)
Osu outcast system-- people whose grandparents were outcast are still being referred as such. East
Ababorku - West.

They may not be barbaric though.

What's the percentage of these things happening today?

If there are 50,000 marriages in the North in 2026, how many can you allocate to child marriages?

These things will fade over time. We know that. You know that.

Even the good morals we grew up with, has started to fade. But we want to convince ourselves that barbaric practices won't leave us at any point?

Theflint1:
The cultural adaptability of Nigeria or black nations in general cannot be compared with what's obtainable in these Asian countries you've mentioned.

There's really no way to tell exactly how left to our own devices we'd have evolved, what's apparent though is how we're evolving in the areas the white man left malmformed by design.

We're still blaming the white man for almagamation and the dysfunction of our police system till date.

What I get from what you are saying here is that a black man is the worst of the human kind and should never ever be left to their own devices.

I also deduce from this your post I quoted that while the Asians could evolve on their own and we all could see it with our own eyes, you as a person does not believe Africans had it in them to evolve by themselves.

So in conclusion, the Blackman should be grateful the crime of colonization did happen. If not, we would still be savages.

Noted! 📝

As Biggie Smalls once said, “ninjas bleed just like us!” The so-called colonisers do have the same barbaric history as us, if not a far more barbaric history than ours. And yes, many of those practices are still evident today, even in plain sight. The only difference is that they actively rewrite and sanitise their history, while we continue to dwell in selfhate. It’s 2026! Free yourselves from mental slavery… word to Marley!

izzou:
What's the percentage of these things happening today?

If there are 50,000 marriages in the North in 2026, how many can you allocate to child marriages?

These things will fade over time. We know that. You know that.

Even the good morals we grew up with, has started to fade. But we want to convince ourselves that barbaric practices won't leave us at any point?

Nobody says these things wouldn't have stopped with time, when that time would be is the question.

Simply saying because Chinese and Japanese have stopped their own barbaric beliefs, it means we too would have stopped our own by now doesn't cut it.

Heck even India and these east Asian countries can't be compared in terms of cultural adaptability, even though their development in other areas are comparable.

diggz:
As Biggie Smalls once said, “ninjas bleed just like us!” The so-called colonisers do have the same barbaric history as us, if not a far more barbaric history than ours. And yes, many of those practices are still evident today, even in plain sight. The only difference is that they actively rewrite and sanitise their history, while we continue to dwell in selfhate. It’s 2026! Free yourselves from mental slavery… word to Marley!

Baba, I shock ! I can't believe what I'm reading!

He said there's no way to tell how exactly well we would've evolved if we were left to our own devices ! . So the Asians who evolved on their own when left to their own devices are Superior to us. No wonder the Asians look down on us and some of our own people validate the Asians' superiority complex.

BlueRayDick:
I have a friend currently sitting in my DM eager to put any liquid he can lay his hands on into buying Dangote refinery shares at the IPO. My guy just wants me to say the word "GO" so he can buy as many shares as he can afford. I just told him to allowme till weekend when I will be less busy so I can send him voice note on the dangers that comes with this kind of IPO Dangote dey do.

If I don't know of anything else, at least I know of Daar Communications IPO which my papa and so many optimistic investors had their money trapped into after fully subscribing to the shares @ N5 per share in 2008. The Daar Communications stock was on a steady decline for years that it was even below 50 kobo per share at some point. I remember the last time I had a discussion with my old man in 2021 about AIT and Dokpesi name came up, baba dey cuss Dokpesi for the "scam" he package give them at the IPO.

While I understand the gingah wey dey everybody to buy Dangote shares because of the prospects of the refinery earning dollars in the future, I think most Nigerians do not understand that revenue does not necessarily translate to profit.... Neither does it mean the share value will even appreciate to exponential levels.

As someone who has always been risk averse, my advice for people who sort my opinion on this Dangote IPO issue is for them to take things slow. Me Personally I won't buy the shares at the IPO; I will wait for the post-IPO dip and buy then see what happens in the future. I don't want to buy shares that will be valued at N525 at IPO and then after 2 years the same shares will be around N200 to N300.

The refinery definitely has prospects, but there are some cons too with refinery operations. All these yeye wars here and there fit affect feedstock and affect the chances of the refinery operating at optimum capacity. When that happens, profit may dip. Nigeria playing host nation to the refinery does not even have enough feedstock to give the refinery and imported crude may be affected by factors beyond the control of Dangote refinery itself. So, make people no go put money wey be their life savings for investment in refinery in its infancy years.

Lol..Well said.

Whenever any of my friend asks of my opinion, I always end it with a caveat, "do your own personal research and the ultimate decision is yours to make"

Although, Dangote has also admited that the funds raised will be channeled towards their expansion project. But like you rightly stated, its best to wait and see what happens post IPO.

He is also looking to expand into the east african market, so that could be an indication of the growth pottential of the company.

One mistake people make is that, they believe that once they buy the stocks, dividend would start flowing next year not considering the fact that the company might decide something else depending on whats their business goals for the year.

On a side note; I won't be investing for selfish reasons because as a retail investor that I am, why would I be contributing towards growing dangotes networth instead looking for creatives ways to use that money in building my own company

Jokes apart, the hype surrounding this IPO calls for caution.

I think one IPO that has been successful of recent is the MTN own in 2019.

Atleast, investors reaped and are still reaping the rewards of their investment despite the setback of 2023.

BlueRayDick:
You need to understand that I'm speaking from the point view of someone who has seen how states/countries that were not formally colonized evolved/developed in almost same way as the imperialists.

Japan for example was not formally colonized as an ancient civilization. One of the so called barbaric acts in ancient Japan was sepukku. Guess what? The Japanese themselves put an end to it over time. (I think it's sometime around the 19th century or thereabouts). They didn't need any imperialist to colonize them to put an end to sepukku.

It leaves a bad taste in the mouth for a young person from a colonized state to be thinking barbaric acts into stopped because imperialists are magnanous enough to put a stop to barbaric cultures. Even the imperialist he's thanking also had barbaric acts they stopped over time without the influence of any foreign power.

You keep mentioning Japan and China, list countries within Africa.
I am not saying we must thank the white man, far from it.

I'm simply saying this evolution you're talking of might not have been here by now.

See how technological advanced the nations you've mentioned are and they keep improving. Where are we?

Does the Dangote Refinery need funding for its expansion? Yes. Is Dangote looking for money to offset its previous debt? You're probably right.

But based on economic filings and reports I've seen following the company so far, AFC who was one of the main fundraisers for the refinery stated on their official website they just got full $300mn repayment from Dangote Refinery earlier this year.


Is Dangote overpromising, maybe yes, maybe not?

The $50bn worth I've seen of the refinery probably looks a little overpriced to me, I'm guessing it might be around $35-40bn but I'm not privy to their books. Still, not a very drastic over estimation in my opinion. Probably marketing or the company is also pricing in its potential or future importance and revenue and operational business.

Dangote might be very ambitious and his projections might look fantastical but I'm hardly doubting that company based on their share scale and revenue.

Dangote Refinery said they made revenue of about $13bn in Half year 2026 alone. Profit of $1.8bn.....that's massive; coming from around a $480mn loss from 2025.

Looking at all this, then my estimation of the total worth of the refinery at $40bn seems about right. And the little I under about mergers & acquisitions and valuations of companies, their debts are usually added to the total company worth when selling to a new owner.

So Dangote Refinery total debt and assets being around $50bn probably isn't tales by moonlight from the company.
Its scale is just bonkers.


Whether the company has the space for expansion..... I've read and watched several interviews where Dangote said the Refinery was built with future expansion in mind.
This was about two years ago before we started even dreaming or hearing of any talks about an IPO.

I mean a significant part of the parcel of land this refinery sits on was actually reclaimed land from the sea. And they built their own port facilities to accommodate large industrial machinery and ships to effectively deploy on the refinery.

So yes, Dangote Refinery probably have space for it's 1.4 million bpd expansion.
It's already the largest "single train refinery" in the world. It wouldn't be that hard to take it to the next phase especially when the same group is also promoting a 650,000 bpd refinery in East Africa.

Dangote Refinery has a unique case different from the largest refineries in the world that currently sits in Asia and Europe in that, the Nigerian refinery sits on a major oil production country. They on the other hand, import almost all oil input.

Yes, Nigeria presently cannot fully satisfy Dangote Refinery oil needs. But Nigeria's oil capacity is also not sitting idle and remaining the same. It's also planned for future expansion with billions of dollars planned in new oil wells from the likes of Exxon Mobil, Shell and Chevron. Seplat, Oando and co ain't slacking and also increasing oil production.

And this inability to adequately supply the refinery is because of APC's Buhari who promised our future crude supplies for loans with Brazil and co....

Looking at the fundamentals:

Oil has gone up above $100 per barrel due to the middle east regional instability. So oil business takes in cool money this period.
Note: of course hostility might die down and price crash to normal but oil still seems to be on a good price of $75-80 per barrel in the next few years. Still good business for the entire industry.

Strategic location of Dangote Refinery, sitting in the Gulf of Guinea has easy access to Europe and cheaper transit fares compared to major American refiners due to proximity. Its an easy alternative to constrained Middle East oil trapped by the Hormuz crisis. It is also an alternative to the Red Sea crude oil supplies if and when hostilities resumes on that front.

So there's many geographic positives that favours the Dangote Refinery over many others.

Boeing said African aviation will need about 1,100 aircrafts between now and 2040. That's double the demand presently.
That's already a market Dangote Refinery sits in and currently dominates.

Dangote Refinery has been consistently cited by Reuters as one of the refineries that highly profited from the Iran crisis due to charging premium prices for products to supply Europe. Cos the Europeans needed the oil by all means at any cost, name your price. So far you have it available, they needed it cos Hormuz was blockaded for weeks.

So, bruh, any way you look at it, this company is making maaaaaadd income in the foreseeable future.

BlueRayDick:
Baba, I shock ! I can't believe what I'm reading!

He said there's no way to tell how exactly well we would've evolved if we were left to our own devices ! . So the Asians who evolved on their own when left to their own devices are Superior to us. No wonder the Asians look down on us and some of our own people validate the Asians' superiority complex.

If superiority means whether we're all human beings, then no, they're as human as we are.

But if you're speaking in terms of ability, and future potential, they're not same as us. Think of it this way, there's people of the same age as you that you know deep down can't touch you ability wise, because of where you are compared to them now, the rate you're going compared to them, the decisions you're taking per time, and of course there's the randomness of life. It's no different with countries.

The fact is, given how we've evolved, there's not enough evidence on ground to show that some of these barbaric practices that the white man stamped out wouldn't have still been in play had they not intervened.

Culturally, there's an age difference between our cultures and the cultures of these developed nations, and the faster they evolve compared to us, the more that age difference increases.

The same way not all humans are destined to make it given the limitation of time, so too not all countries are destined to make it (and this includes culturally).

izzou:
List the barbaric acts running in these regions, if you don't mind

North
- Child marriage
- Almajiri system
- Terrorism (saying no to western education)
- Female circumcision
- Religious intolerance

South:
- Withcraft
- Ritual killings and belief
- Ridiculous burial and mourning rites

East:
- Osu caste system
- Female disinheritance
- Ridiculous burial and mourning rites


West:
- FGM
-Ritual killings and belief.
Etc


There are some I didn't include because I don't know how to place them.
Things like being flogged or killed because you saw a masquerade.
Blood oath taking to prevent adultery etc.

sconp:
North
- Child marriage
- Almajiri system
- Terrorism (saying no to western education)
- Female circumcision
- Religious intolerance

South:
- Withcraft
- Ritual killings and belief
- Ridiculous burial and mourning rites

East:
- Osu caste system
- Female disinheritance
- Ridiculous burial and mourning rites


West:
- FGM
-Ritual killings and belief.
Etc


There are some I didn't include because I don't know how to place them.
Things like being flogged or killed because you saw a masquerade.
Blood oath taking to prevent adultery etc.

I already knew you would list any listable available

So terrorism is a cultural belief amongst Northerners?

Which ritual killings is approved in any tribe today?

My father is late. He was buried. My mother's head was never shaved. She did not drink any water from the corpse. But I trust Nollywood to give us a better picture of culture than the real ones.

I am surprised Banditry and Yahoo wasn't listed.

In the Igbo culture, it is a male figure in the bride's family that gives her out to marriage. It could be anyone, as long as he's male

Recently, a marriage is trending on SM showing a woman giving her daughter out to marriage. Reactions here and there, yet the marriage stood.

Nobody was arrested. Nobody was killed. The couple fit dey nack for Bahamas as I type.

These things will eventually fizzle out.

But to win an argument, we would rather believe that killing of twins would still exist in 2026, or Terrorism is a cultural belief amongst Northerners

If you look at the overall trajectory and where the company is headed, you'll know the company is using the Dangote Refinery to spearhead a massive expansion both domestically (Nigeria) and international in Africa.

Dangote Group projects a $100bn revenue by 2030.
It's very ambitious but it is actually possible looking at the scale of projects and revenue the group is already making and plans to make.

Some might have forgotten about Dangote Group's plan to build and operate a port. The Olokola Deep Seaport. Billed as Nigeria's largest port facility, it will be bigger than even the Lekki Deep Seaport and handle dry bulk and liquid bulk cargoes not only containers that Nigeria's busiest ports do at present.
That's visionary into the future.

On a closer look, that port will be used to also process part of the Refinery's export cargo.

This is a silent move to have more control over their export destiny and how it is exported.

What that tells you is that the entire group is anticipating a massive surge in products export that they feel Nigerian present facilities can't adequately accomodate.
What that tells you is that they're anticipating a massive expansion in production.

Looking at that single project I can say the Dangote Refinery isn't just making statements for the sake of it when it says it wants to be the largest Refinery in the world.
Also don't forget they also are expanding the Fertilizer company to become the largest in the world too.

So in essence, Dangote Group is building a massive specialized port for Dangote Cement, Dangote Refinery & Petrochemicals, Dangote Fertiliser etc.

So bruh, many of what the company has said and projected is plausible. It's cos it's in the early stages it's all looking like talks and mouthing off.

izzou:
I already knew you would list any listable available

So terrorism is a cultural belief amongst Northerners?

Which ritual killings is approved in any tribe today?

My father is late. He was buried. My mother's head was never shaved. She did not drink any water from the corpse. But I trust Nollywood to give us a better picture of culture than the real ones.

I am surprised Banditry and Yahoo wasn't listed.

Boko Haram started as a religious belief in a certain state in the North. Terrorism in the North has a religious side to it.
In my post, I started barbaric acts and yes it is rife in the North.

Ritual killing doesn't necessarily need to be approved for it to exist. We all know it exist, we also know that it's deeply believed in.

That it didn't happen to your mother, doesn't mean it doesn't happen elsewhere. That it didn't happen in your tribe doesn't mean it doesn't happen elsewhere.
Nigeria doesn't start nor stop in your community.
Also, in places where this practices have been stopped it was mostly foreign influence that fought for the change using NGOs, foreign funding etc.

Also, do you have rebuttals for the others ? Child marriage, FGM, Almajiri system, witchcraft, female disinheritance?
Or because it doesn't happen in your village, it doesn't exist?

Lastly, I still also stated that there was indeed a chance these things could have fizzled out on their own without foreign influence but would have taken centuries.

Fkforyou:
Lol..Well said.

Whenever any of my friend asks of my opinion, I always end it with a caveat, "do your own personal research and the ultimate decision is yours to make"

Although, Dangote has also admited that the funds raised will be channeled towards their expansion project. But like you rightly stated, its best to wait and see what happens post IPO.

He is also looking to expand into the east african market, so that could be an indication of the growth pottential of the company.

One mistake people make is that, they believe that once they buy the stocks, dividend would start flowing next year not considering the fact that the company might decide something else depending on whats their business goals for the year.

On a side note; I won't be investing for selfish reasons because as a retail investor that I am, why would I be contributing towards growing dangotes networth instead looking for creatives ways to use that money in building my own company

Jokes apart, the hype surrounding this IPO calls for caution.

I think one IPO that has been successful of recent is the MTN own in 2019.

Atleast, investors reaped and are still reaping the rewards of their investment despite the setback of 2023.

Exactly bro!

It's one thing for the shares to be valued and offered to the market at the rate N525 per share and it's a totally different thing for the share price to appreciate or remain within that price range over time. Hype might get the shares fully or over subscribed, but keeping it that way? It's another story.

Na who never see the wonders of stock market go carry their rainy day funds dump into an IPO because the company is projected to be the biggest refinery in the world.

As you rightly said, the best thing is for people to apply caution and not just dump money into the IPO because it's what is in vogue currently. There's always a chance to buy the same shares Post-IPO and it may even be at a lower price sef.

sconp:
Boko Haram started as a religious belief in a certain state in the North. Terrorism in the North has a religious side to it.
In my post, I started barbaric acts and yes it is rife in the North.

Ritual killing doesn't necessarily need to be approved for it to exist. We all know it exist, we also know that it's deeply believed in.

That it didn't happen to your mother, doesn't mean it doesn't happen elsewhere. That it didn't happen in your tribe doesn't mean it doesn't happen elsewhere.
Nigeria doesn't start nor stop in your community.
Also, in places where this practices have been stopped it was mostly foreign influence that fought for the change using NGOs, foreign funding etc.

Also, do you have rebuttals for the others ? Child marriage, FGM, Almajiri system, witchcraft, female disinheritance?
Or because it doesn't happen in your village, it doesn't exist?

Lastly, I still also stated that there was indeed a chance these things could have fizzled out on their own without foreign influence but would have taken centuries.

Boko Haram started in 2009. I guess the Northerners started existing in 2008 probably.

You cannot list any community with those barbaric burial rites, but my community as a sample doesn't qualify. You are funny, sir.

I have already asked the same question on child marriages; If 50,000 marriages happened this year in the North, how many do you think are child marriages? Maybe 49,998.

Your argument reminds me of how we assume and apportion different beliefs and traditions back then in secondary school. If you know any tribe or culture that practice these strongly, show evidence.

Nigeria is bigger than what you think and know in your mind. Ask questions, sir. It would do you a lot of good.

BokoHaram that started in 2009 is what is a culture for people that have existed beyond the 14th century.

Stack difference on how the Nigerian basketball female team look compared to their football counterpart. They are also ranked 8th in the world.

Kikelomogbenga:
Stack difference on how the Nigerian basketball female team look compared to their football counterpart. They are also ranked 8th in the world.

8th in the world wey no fit deliver any worthwhile performance for World cup??

abduleez1:
Lol, just read some skepticisms about the Dangote Refinery and it's IPO.
Some of the arguments is a little funny and too cynical.

Dangote Refinery has a track record and economists have been following its business since Inception.

The Dangote Group has decades of track record and performance even in the stock market in the NGX with its subsidiaries in Dangote Cement, Dangote Sugar etc so it is easy to believe when the same group comes out and tell you to make a very big bet on their biggest project so far.

The future potential of the refinery is not betting on fumes or tales by moonlight.....it's betting on how the refinery had changed the energy landscape in such a few years of its existence.

Dangote Refinery is now the largest supplier of jet fuel to the EU (European Union), even supplying more Jet fuel than all US exporters to Europe. That alone speaks to the enormous scale of the refinery and its operations. It is already West Africa's biggest fuel supplier. That's a large domestic market on lock.

The refinery caused some closures of European refineries who somewhat relied on Nigeria and West African imports for their revenue.

Dangote Fertilizer along with Eleme Petrochemical and Fertiliser made Nigeria amongst the top fertiliser exporters in the world in the last 3 years and their exports keep increasing. Petroleum supplies from the Refinery is what is keeping the Fertilizer unit running, so that's already another mega business that patronises the Dangote Refinery no matter what (even tho it's a related company).


Yeah, being moderate and a sound economist also says that what the IPO price is now doesn't mean that's the price it will keep selling for— it can appreciate or depreciate depending on market realities.
But based on the policies, market movements, trends, geopolitics and economics of it all, the Dangote Refinery isn't really selling "dreams".
It's a plausible concrete investment for the next 5 years.

And peeps like AFC, Afrexim Bank, AfDB, First Bank, some Gulf states and co wouldn't be head over heels trying to get a piece of the pie in the previous private placement. Betting several hundred millions of their hard cash for it. To the tune of over subscription on available shares (over $2.6bn).



What I'll tell you, as I've told myself, any free money I can get within this period and when the IPO finally opens and closes, is going to getting that stock my gee. Make I prepare my documents finish and get my CSCS ready on time.

The valuation is somehow. Dangote has previously put his total investment in the project at about $12–15 billion, yet the proposed IPO implies a value close to $50 billion. Also there isn’t enough publicly available information on how much costly borrowing sits on the refinery balance sheet.

Fkforyou:
Lol..Well said.

Whenever any of my friend asks of my opinion, I always end it with a caveat, "do your own personal research and the ultimate decision is yours to make"

Although, Dangote has also admited that the funds raised will be channeled towards their expansion project. But like you rightly stated, its best to wait and see what happens post IPO.

He is also looking to expand into the east african market, so that could be an indication of the growth pottential of the company.

One mistake people make is that, they believe that once they buy the stocks, dividend would start flowing next year not considering the fact that the company might decide something else depending on whats their business goals for the year.

On a side note; I won't be investing for selfish reasons because as a retail investor that I am, why would I be contributing towards growing dangotes networth instead looking for creatives ways to use that money in building my own company

Jokes apart, the hype surrounding this IPO calls for caution.

I think one IPO that has been successful of recent is the MTN own in 2019.

Atleast, investors reaped and are still reaping the rewards of their investment despite the setback of 2023.

Airtel's IPO also comes to mind. I'm surprised it just passed MTN's with a decent gap in capitalisation.

I'm patiently waiting for Opay's after waiting for years for Flutterwave's.

izzou:
Boko Haram started in 2009. I guess the Northerners started existing in 2008 probably.

You cannot list any community with those barbaric burial rites, but my community as a sample doesn't qualify. You are funny, sir.

I have already asked the same question on child marriages; If 50,000 marriages happened this year in the North, how many do you think are child marriages? Maybe 49,998.

Your argument reminds me of how we assume and apportion different beliefs and traditions back then in secondary school. If you know any tribe or culture that practice these strongly, show evidence.

Nigeria is bigger than what you think and know in your mind. Ask questions, sir. It would do you a lot of good.

You're right about the religious beliefs that started in 2009, that's not cultural and is recent in the scheme of things. That doesn't fit the discuss.

The Almajiri system does though.

Evidence of these abound and they're happening, you can choose to live in denial and gloss it over.

FGM is rife among the Hausa
Female disinheritance is rife in igbo communities.
Igala people of Kogi, Enugu Ezike and Nsukka practice the blood oath adultery thing.
Child marriage happens among the Hausas, Kanuri, Kambri and even fulani tribes.
How about the tradition of 'bury properly before contributing for another ' in Enugu and Ebonyi state.

Without foreign influence, most cultural practices would probably still be ongoing in current day!
Enjoy!

abduleez1:
8th in the world wey no fit deliver any worthwhile performance for World cup??

Our girls disappointed me at that world cup. I genuinely expected more from them. Wakama also came late to camp.

Kikelomogbenga:
The valuation is somehow. Dangote has previously put his total investment in the project at about $12–15 billion, yet the proposed IPO implies a value close to $50 billion. Also there isn’t enough publicly available information on how much costly borrowing sits on the refinery balance sheet.

Yeah, the value looks somehow.

Me thinks it's around $35-40bn.

Yes Dangote has said about $12-15bn in the past but the final valuation of the refinery after completion was put at $20bn. Probably accounting for funding and debt accumulation over the time it was initially delayed.

Me thinks, debt for the refinery was around $7bn.

I read a report where African Finance Corporation (AFC) said they led a funding round of $3bn for Dangote Refinery and they personally dropped $300mn, which has been fully paid by Dangote earlier this year.

They'd also price the value and potential they think the refinery can deliver as well as include it's total debt, not only just it's actual worth in setting it up. Investors are actually paying for the worth they think the company is worth having in mind ROI.

Also looking at Dangote Cement market cap at $13bn then we can say the Dangote Refinery is at least 3 times that company's worth.

Also note the company's revenue will be another factor. The refinery just released financials stating it's made $13bn revenue in H1 2026 and a net profit of $1.8bn.

So you can use this to gauge IPO, construction costs and debt and get a rough valuation..... Asides what the company feels it's worth.

There's no way Airtel Africa has an higher valuation than Mtn.

Kikelomogbenga:
Our girls disappointed me at that world cup. I genuinely expected more from them. Wakama also came late to camp.

Guy, the thing pain me no be small. See wetin France do them. 😭😭

The women that was our pride just dey shove sand inside person eyes. See the abysmal performance from the Super Falcons too.

Godx:
There's no way Airtel Africa has an higher valuation than Mtn.

Guy, me sef shock oo. I saw it this morning. Nairametrics is a reliable statistics company in Nigeria so I no too question am.

I go go recheck now sef.

Airtel's share price has seen a massive rise in recent times with share price surpassing #10,000 naira.

abduleez1:
Does the Dangote Refinery need funding for its expansion? Yes. Is Dangote looking for money to offset its previous debt? You're probably right.

But based on economic filings and reports I've seen following the company so far, AFC who was one of the main fundraisers for the refinery stated on their official website they just got full $300mn repayment from Dangote Refinery earlier this year.


Is Dangote overpromising, maybe yes, maybe not?

The $50bn worth I've seen of the refinery probably looks a little overpriced to me, I'm guessing it might be around $35-40bn but I'm not privy to their books. Still, not a very drastic over estimation in my opinion. Probably marketing or the company is also pricing in its potential or future importance and revenue and operational business.

Dangote might be very ambitious and his projections might look fantastical but I'm hardly doubting that company based on their share scale and revenue.

Dangote Refinery said they made revenue of about $13bn in Half year 2026 alone. Profit of $1.8bn.....that's massive; coming from around a $480mn loss from 2025.

Looking at all this, then my estimation of the total worth of the refinery at $40bn seems about right. And the little I under about mergers & acquisitions and valuations of companies, their debts are usually added to the total company worth when selling to a new owner.

So Dangote Refinery total debt and assets being around $50bn probably isn't tales by moonlight from the company.
Its scale is just bonkers.


Whether the company has the space for expansion..... I've read and watched several interviews where Dangote said the Refinery was built with future expansion in mind.
This was about two years ago before we started even dreaming or hearing of any talks about an IPO.

I mean a significant part of the parcel of land this refinery sits on was actually reclaimed land from the sea. And they built their own port facilities to accommodate large industrial machinery and ships to effectively deploy on the refinery.

So yes, Dangote Refinery probably have space for it's 1.4 million bpd expansion.
It's already the largest "single train refinery" in the world. It wouldn't be that hard to take it to the next phase especially when the same group is also promoting a 650,000 bpd refinery in East Africa.

Dangote Refinery has a unique case different from the largest refineries in the world that currently sits in Asia and Europe in that, the Nigerian refinery sits on a major oil production country. They on the other hand, import almost all oil input.

Yes, Nigeria presently cannot fully satisfy Dangote Refinery oil needs. But Nigeria's oil capacity is also not sitting idle and remaining the same. It's also planned for future expansion with billions of dollars planned in new oil wells from the likes of Exxon Mobil, Shell and Chevron. Seplat, Oando and co ain't slacking and also increasing oil production.

And this inability to adequately supply the refinery is because of APC's Buhari who promised our future crude supplies for loans with Brazil and co....

Looking at the fundamentals:

Oil has gone up above $100 per barrel due to the middle east regional instability. So oil business takes in cool money this period.
Note: of course hostility might die down and price crash to normal but oil still seems to be on a good price of $75-80 per barrel in the next few years. Still good business for the entire industry.

Strategic location of Dangote Refinery, sitting in the Gulf of Guinea has easy access to Europe and cheaper transit fares compared to major American refiners due to proximity. Its an easy alternative to constrained Middle East oil trapped by the Hormuz crisis. It is also an alternative to the Red Sea crude oil supplies if and when hostilities resumes on that front.

So there's many geographic positives that favours the Dangote Refinery over many others.

Boeing said African aviation will need about 1,100 aircrafts between now and 2040. That's double the demand presently.
That's already a market Dangote Refinery sits in and currently dominates.

Dangote Refinery has been consistently cited by Reuters as one of the refineries that highly profited from the Iran crisis due to charging premium prices for products to supply Europe. Cos the Europeans needed the oil by all means at any cost, name your price. So far you have it available, they needed it cos Hormuz was blockaded for weeks.

So, bruh, any way you look at it, this company is making maaaaaadd income in the foreseeable future.

If yóu can look past the verbose ...... Here's my musings regarding the company's IPO.

Cc Kikelomogbenga

Ibime I think you might be on to something that it's likely Dangote is out to use the public raise funds to pay off his borrowings and then wait to see what happens to the refinery under market conditions.

I saw this Shell guy's post under one post hyping the Dangote IPO. According to him, Dangote is betting his refinery will be worth more in valuation than Exxon Mobil, Cheveron and Shell combined in the foreseeable future.

That's some big assss ambitious ambition.

abduleez1:
8th in the world wey no fit deliver any worthwhile performance for World cup??

Local champions, na to bully upcoming africa nations because they have experience and exposure