₦airaland Forum

I had 2m set out for the IPO but changed my mind after some research..

It took dangote Cement 16yrs (2010 to 2026) to move from N135/shares to an all time high of N1,189/shares. That is a solid 16yrs for to get 7 times your investment.

It took dangote sugar 20yrs to move from N18/shares to an all time high of N95/shares that is it needed 20yrs to give me a 5x returns

With Dangote refinery already priced at N525/shares which I believe is already too high, I believe by following patterns with his other two companies it could take about 5-7yrs for anyone to get a 5x returns on investment. Because for a 5x returns the stock value needs to jump as high as N2,625/shares and mind you one of the reasons Dangote refinery made $1.8bn profit H1 of this year is because of Ukraine/Russia war and the strait of Hormuz conflict between US and Iran, pushing countries to likes of Nigeria.

Normally the big refineries in India and those of Russia provides alot of refining capacity and cheaper output for European markets.

one may say Dangote does can sell to African countries but we know that Africa is not a serious market and it takes one geopolitical moves from the super powers to scare them to shift loyalty. USA alone with Venezuela oil re pumping and refining like hell to take European customers from Russia.

So, Dangote refinery will give some returns but I am not waiting 5yrs to turn my 2m to N10m. Never doing that

I will wait for the IPO to list, wait for a dip and when the dip comes I will jump in to acquire some and quickly trade anytime the stocks goes up. I will swoop in and swoop out ...everyone knows that during an election year stock market tends to crash because investors tends to pull their funds out until the noise of the election dies down and stability returns

Wotowotoman:
Wetin this Ogbeni dey yearn? So are you saying Dangote’s financial statements were weak in 08 when those people bought shares during the IPO? Wetin be this?

You people aren't patient enough to comprehend, you just stupidly reply. I said read financial statements you are here asking if Dangote's financial statements were weak in 2008. What do you even mean by "weak financial statement"? What in the world does that nonsense mean? Did you read the financial statement in 2008 or not? Mstchew

bassdow:
Generally, anyOne buying less than 1,000 units is just wasting their time while tying the funds down.

Even the earned dividended if and when paid, fit no dey enough to buy data watch tikTok

This mindset is why for long I didn't even think of owning stocks.

Bro you nailed it. It's a waste of timing putting your 100k or 200k in stuffs like this and hoping to be successful with it tomorrow.

You are up against people investing billions that even a 0.5% price movement fetches them millions of dollars in profit but someone with 200k or 1m may need to wait for a 600% price move to see significant gain and Jesus may return before that happens. Even the dividends they pay with your 2m invested your dividends may not exceed 30k when they pay.

Stock market is not for poor people. You need to go in with alot so that a little price movement can fetch you enough profit that you will smile to the bank

nairalanda1:
You are a nice lad, aren't you, son?

Lol u no dey tire

TEYA:
You people aren't patient enough to comprehend, you just stupidly reply. I said read financial statements you are here asking if Dangote's financial statements were weak in 2008. What do you even mean by "weak financial statement"? What in the world does that nonsense mean? Did you read the financial statement in 2008 or not? Mstchew

This Ogbeni 👆go think say he sharp. But he himself no even sabi wetin he dey yearn.

Person dey complain say people wey buy Dangote IPO back in the day no see shishi. This man come dey talk financial statements. I ask am whether Dangote financials weak when those people buy in 08 and no see shishi. He open mouth waaa dey talk jargons. Na wa for this Nairaland o

Mexyz:
My brother, it's not all about financial statements alone o, financial statements can be cooked/engineered also to make it look like the company is healthy when opposite is the case.

While you are right, there are red flags that one can watch out for like profit-cash mismatch, frequent change of auditors, sudden large one off gains that drive earnings, especially towards the end of the year etc. No analyst can be perfect but with caution, risks can be reduced.

What is a weak financial statement?

Wotowotoman:
This Ogbeni 👆go think say he sharp. But he himself no even sabi wetin he dey yearn.

Person dey complain say people wey buy Dangote IPO back in the day no see shishi. This man come dey talk financial statements. I ask am whether Dangote financials weak when those people buy in 08 and no see shishi. He open mouth waaa dey talk jargons. Na wa for this Nairaland o

bassdow:
SHAREs is too unPredictable.

And you got no control over any of it's Variables

Facts

TEYA:
You can't cash out by December. If you buy, you can only sell after 12 months!

Ogbeni, no dey talk wetin you no sabi. 12 months ke? This is false!!!

If na lock up period you dey talk, it doesn’t apply to retail investors. Only applies to insiders and the institutional investors that bought during the private placement. And it definitely is not 12 months!

Retail investors are free to sell in the secondary market after SEC approval expected before the end of the year!

People go just enter Nairaland and open mouth waaa to dey spread false info up and down. Na wa o.

TEYA:
What is a weak financial statement?

Ogbeni, if you no sabi, go and educate yourself. No dey ask me JAMB question

TEYA:
While you are right, there are red flags that one can watch out for like profit-cash mismatch, frequent change of auditors, sudden large one off gains that drive earnings, especially towards the end of the year etc. No analyst can be perfect but with caution, risks can be reduced.

Swear say no be AI you copy and paste this statement from

Wotowotoman:
Swear say no be AI you copy and paste this statement from

lol. Even if I swear how you wan take verify?

Na their way. That is why I never take anything Nigerians say to heart. “I will not collect NIN,” “I will not collect BVN,” “I will not register my SIM card.” When the expiration dates of those schemes reached, I was the only one locked out. Everyone else registered on the first week those systems were announced. They spent the latter part of the year deceiving gullible folks not to sign up.

ARISHEM:
Those criticizing will also invest. That I know.
Embezzlers of public funds will see this as an opportunity to invest.

How do you identify a string stock market
Una go just de yarn opata

obeegee:
I think the stock market is stronger now than then.

It will only be sustained if govt policies remain stable

However, I do agree that the stock price may be propped up by the initial hype. So far the company makes decent profits consistently (which they likely will since they have a near monopoly), the share price will rise

All of a sudden, every Nairaland child struggling to pass UTME is now a stock expert. Funny platform.

nairalanda1:
You can organize a revolution, seize the money and assets from the rich and middle class, and use the money to benefit the poor, son.

when has that ever happened? If you don't have the discipline to earn the money you will not benefit anybody but yourself

blaise26abj:
I think it is a stock that will do well over a long term. Any short term investor might see micro movements for a short time . Once the war in Iran stops , prices of crude will drop and so will the profit margin . That war is not a perpetual one . Only buy when it starts climbing .

The bank shares really destroyed my trust in Our exchange . [/size]

Why would you trust another human being with bad track record
That was all you mate
Not the exchange
[/quote][size=8pt] Davido casted the private share sales to friends, business associates and partners. They have positioned themselves to cash out at the expenses of the the ipo subscribers. We are the ones to scramble for leftovers and drive up the prices based SOLELY on the initial demand rush.[/quote]

ceejay80s:
Everybody na son to u,
How old are u sef ?

My son, he should be at most in his late 30's

Flesh10:
This mindset is why for long I didn't even think of owning stocks.

Bro you nailed it. It's a waste of timing putting your 100k or 200k in stuffs like this and hoping to be successful with it tomorrow.

You are up against people investing billions that even a 0.5% price movement fetches them millions of dollars in profit but someone with 200k or 1m may need to wait for a 600% price move to see significant gain and Jesus may return before that happens. Even the dividends they pay with your 2m invested your dividends may not exceed 30k when they pay.

Stock market is not for poor people. You need to go in with alot so that a little price movement can fetch you enough profit that you will smile to the bank

You understand the stock market, it is just like those memecoins shat. You need large volume of money to earn decent profits. 100k, 1m? Just use your money buy land.

The truth is that Nigerian companies do not have sufficient regulatory oversight to be called stock investments. The major share holders are not looking to make money from dividends. They control the executive, own companies servicing the company at inflated service rates. All their living costs, leisures and etc are passed off as running cost of the company. Can you Imagine a situation where a logistics company is making 3 times the profit of their sole Client company from same business. For banks, they invest for unrestricted credit line to fund their main businesses from depositors funds at special interest rates. It'd only someone who has no idea what goes on inside these companies that buys their shares ignorantly, and not for Leaverage.

In the particular case if dangote, He is just selling risk, not the refinery. He is diversifying his risk. First he builds a 6 to 8 billion USD refinery for twice the cost. Inflates it to 20 Billion USD to the public. After Buhari, He realises the refinery cannot function without crude from whoever is Nigeria's President. That's a huge risk he should have forseen. And the only way to manage this risk is to diversify ownership among the political Elites, which he has done. The public IPO is just the PR. He has reduced his political exposure drastically. You that is buying should understand the risk. The risk profile is parallel to Nigerian Politics and Niger Delta oil Production risks.

Cromagnon:
How do you identify a string stock market
Una go just de yarn opata

There is higher capitalization and more nigerian participation/investment

Reinvented:
If you bought Dangote Cement shares back then, I want to ask you how far? This same craze was same back then. The big guys will get in, ride the tide and systematically drop out leaving marginal holders with barely nothing.

I am not a dooms day prophet, but we have seen this before. In 2005 to 2008, the banks were pushing IPOs, many of those investments have gone the way of MMM. At a time, I had close to N12m with FSDH, luckily I took out some to invest in real estate, the balance is now less than N200k in value from well over N5m in 2010.

My 5 cent, get into time tested stock like Nestlé all these hype will evaporate in 3 years.

I did a 3 years analysis with worst case scenario and yet the Dangote Stock looks healthy, apparently, the value isn't in the PMS, it's in the value asset, the expansion plans and the crude extract asides from the PMS Dangote refines... It's a good for long term but nothing short term... 3 years and above at least ...

benuejosh:
A lot of people have less understanding and knowledge about shares. Someone is somewhere now thinking of how he will cash out by December from the IPO.

Some of them think the value will quadruple overnight

The crash will pass cibex own

There's risk in virtually every decision made in this life.

Some of the decisions portends good returns while some bring losses.

Why the fuss? 😔

omoredia:
What I know is that the rich will never actively pushing something that will benefit the masses. Nigerians when will u people wake up from slumber and ignorance?

Na the poor wan make you rich?

Buy a plot of land at N1 million Naira than invest this morning in Dangote refinery ‼️

Come and thank me in 3-5 years time.
Amen 🙌

Sheuns:
You understand the stock market, it is just like those memecoins shat. You need large volume of money to earn decent profits. 100k, 1m? Just use your money buy land.

I swr. I was looking at Dangote cement IPO it was sold for 135 naira per share in 2010 and right now in 2026 the price is about 1089 per shares. Which means it took 16 solid years to increase my money 9 times. So if I invested 1m in 2010 after 16yrs I should be having about 9m. Just 8m profit in 16yrs and the funny thing is that the value of 1m then and what it could do in 2010 was far more valuable than what 9m will do for you now in 2026.

The worst one is Dangote sugar. Sold for 18 naira per shares in 2006 and after 20yrs it is I think around 65 naira per shares . That's a solid 20yrs to generate 7x profit.

It's bullshit....

If I am not playing it big to trade and make money with a slight price shit then I am not putting my money.

tonididdy:
I almost credited them for 1850 shares yesterday, na to just click done remain.
I nor know the kind breeze wey blow past my face.
That alone was enough sign I needed

Sorry, but you dey crase. LMAAAOOOOo! Abeg naaaa. Lolololoslolsolosssss