₦airaland Forum

givedemwotowoto:
Kwankwaso is on the ballot.

The same way Obi was on the ballot in 2019 with Atiku and Atiku swept the SE/SS.

And Immediately Obi left the ticket, Atiku’s base in the SE and SS, Lagos and Abuja collapsed.

Because Kwankwaso is now on a strong national ticket, more people will support him. I think they’ll get 1 million+ votes in Kano. This strong Kano support will spread across nearby NW states.

Atiku won Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa in 2023 and he performed very well in Delta. He even won Osun in the south west. If Wike had stood by him, he would have won Rivers. So, stop over estimating Obi's influence in the south. PDP structure gave Atiku a strong foothold in the south in 2019 and 2023. Obi's strong hold is basically the south east and no where else.

Akpakomiza2:
Obi hasn't made any inroad apart from Kano which isn't Tinubu's domain

Tinubu got over 500k votes from Kano in 2023 and you say it’s not his domain?

Which other state gave him more in Nigeria as a whole?

seunmsg:
As unrealistic as this projection is, you still don't have the 25 states required for an outright win.

Unrealistic?

Tell me which state I mentioned is unrealistic.

Penguin2:
Unrealistic?

Tell me which state I mentioned is unrealistic.

Obi will not get 25% in Kaduna, Zamfara, Taraba and Adamawa.

Penguin2:
Tinubu got over 500k votes from Kano in 2023 and you say it’s not his domain?

Which other state gave him more in Nigeria as a whole?

Did he win Kano? If it is domain, what of kwankwaso? Tinubu also got over 500k in Lagos?

Akpakomiza2:
Did he win Kano? If it is domain, what of kwankwaso? Tinubu also got over 500k in Lagos?

I’m not disputing that he got over 500k votes in Lagos too. But after Lagos, Kano is the next place he saw that much volume of votes.

Now, Obi is going to inherit Kwankwaso’s over 900k votes which is enough to cancel all the votes Tinubu will get in SE and SS.

So, you see, Peter Obi has made the most inroads into untraditional territories of the 3.

Let’s not even talk about Atiku that has been confined to Northeast and Northwest.

seunmsg:
Obi will not get 25% in Kaduna, Zamfara, Taraba and Adamawa.

With all the rigging of 2023, Obi got over 100k votes in both Taraba and Adamawa.

Imagine now that he has booths on ground to protect his votes, added to the abysmal performance of Tinubu.

Penguin2:
With all the rigging of 2023, Obi got over 100k votes in both Taraba and Adamawa.

Imagine now that he has booths on ground to protect his votes, added to the abysmal performance of Tinubu.

You've removed Kaduna and Zamfara from your argument so it is good to see that we are making progress in the reality check.

There was no rigging in 2023. He got those votes from Taraba and Adamawa simply because of the fear northern Christian had about MM ticket. In 2027, the fear of the MM ticket is gone and Obi has aligned with the same Fulani fundamentalist who have been trying for years to eliminate northern Christian in the worst political betrayal of all time. APC has taken over both Taraba and Adamawa states as well. If Babachir Lawal and Binani are the booths on ground you're counting on, then you're jonzing.

seunmsg:
Atiku won Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa in 2023 and he performed very well in Delta. He even won Osun in the south west. If Wike had stood by him, he would have won Rivers. So, stop over estimating Obi's influence in the south. PDP structure gave Atiku a strong foothold in the south in 2019 and 2023. Obi's strong hold is basically the south east and no where else.

Why did PDP structure not make Atiku win Delta? Okowa was an incumbent PDP governor and vice presidential candidate. It will be very naive to think the PDP "structure" will automatically be transferred to Tinubu in terms of support just because the governors made an unpopular defection, having been falsely assured that there will be no opposition? Why do you think the governors are mad at Wike and silently at Tinubu? Their re-election chances have become harder in the APC. Tinubu didn't win Rivers. We all know what happened. Not all the governors will be willing to shed their people's blood to deliver Tinubu. Okowa didn't do so despite being a vice presidential candidate.

This happened in Warri, Delta yesterday. Tinubu is highly unpopular across the Southsouth and the Southeast and his much talked about in-road in the middlebelt may be overrated.

Youths in Warri protest after they were allegedly asked to wear branded Tinubu shirt pic.twitter.com/QV9DB01urg

— YabaLeftOnline (@yabaleftonline) October 1, 2026

Akpakomiza2:
Did he win Kano? If it is domain, what of kwankwaso? Tinubu also got over 500k in Lagos?

A candidate got over 500k votes in a state and you are still fixated on whether he won the state or not. No wonder you lot are unappreciative of the hard work that the Northerners did for Tinubu to neutralise Atiku. Was it not better in terms of numbers for Tinubu to come second in Kano than to outrightly win Ekiti and Ondo? Lessons learnt. 2027 will be different and it will be margins that will determine the winner. Not number of states won. It is possible for a candidate to not win a single state and still emerge as president.

Penguin2:
I’m not disputing that he got over 500k votes in Lagos too. But after Lagos, Kano is the next place he saw that much volume of votes.

Now, Obi is going to inherit Kwankwaso’s over 900k votes which is enough to cancel all the votes Tinubu will get in SE and SS.

So, you see, Peter Obi has made the most inroads into untraditional territories of the 3.

Let’s not even talk about Atiku that has been confined to Northeast and Northwest.

Combined total votes cast across Kaduna and Katsina alone = 2,418,826

Combined total votes cast across the Southeast = 2,187,619

Combined total votes cast across Kaduna, Kano, and Katsina states = 4,238,973

Combined total votes cast across the Southwest = 4,070,671

The Muslim North splitted their votes into 3 in 2023 to accomodate Tinubu. (Atiku 6m+, Tinubu 5.6m, Kwankwaso 1.4m). This won't happen at the same scale in 2023. Men lie, women lie, but numbers don't. Continue to fixate about Atiku but he is in very good standing if he consolidates his support in the NW and NE.

Win kano over an atiku, una no sabi how north dey think sha

Akpakomiza2:
Obi hasn't made any inroad apart from Kano which isn't Tinubu's domain

What inroad is that, when Kwankwaso is not interested in 2027 because he has been given renewed hope for 2031 by the master strategist of betrayals? He must be praying that Jagaban of Borgu won't get a 3rd term for life president as Obasanjo failed in 2007.

Kwankwaso is the new Utomi.

As a VP to Peter Obi, he will lose and I will lose because No northerner will ever vote an ibo man as president — Kwankwaso 😳🔥👇 pic.twitter.com/YRBzWRbzvs

— A. Ayofe (@abdullahayofel) June 15, 2026

aswani:
Prof Utomi, yes that President Tinubu's Pat Utomi, is in NDC with him still making sure that he is doing enough to ensure that Peter Obí is not a threat to President Tinubu.

To use a footballing parlance, he has close marked Peter Obí out of making important decisions that might threaten President Tinubu in the elections.

Peter Obi should have stayed in NDC and accepted the VP slot. He is now in a much smaller party and his Obidients are being taken for granted in NDC. Prof Utomi did his job well in 2023 and has now exceeded that already.

seunmsg:
You've removed Kaduna and Zamfara from your argument so it is good to see that we are making progress in the reality check.

There was no rigging in 2023. He got those votes from Taraba and Adamawa simply because of the fear northern Christian had about MM ticket. In 2027, the fear of the MM ticket is gone and Obi has aligned with the same Fulani fundamentalist who have been trying for years to eliminate northern Christian in the worst political betrayal of all time. APC has taken over both Taraba and Adamawa states as well. If Babachir Lawal and Binani are the booths on ground you're counting on, then you're jonzing.

Tinubu’s support amongst the Christian middlebelt is highly exaggerated. Ask anybody on ground. Apart from a few paid social media influencers, even the Christians in Kaduna are saying they will vote Uba Sani but not Tinubu. Some even say they won't vote Uba Sani nor Tinubu. Tinubu is still running on muslim-muslim ticket. Even if you take out the religious factor, his woeful performance is still there. They voted Obi in 2023 and that has largely not changed. Those who voted against Tinubu in the middlebelt didn't cite religion as the reason. Their reason was that he would not perform. Why should they reward him with their votes when they have not been proven wrong? Tinubu aligned with the "Fulani fundamentalist" in 2023. They are the reason he got 5.6m votes. He has repeated the muslim-muslim ticket and is unsuccessfully mobilising the likes of Sheikh Yahaya Jingir to rally "Fulani Fundamentalists" again but they are not buying it. Meanwhile, the middlebelt Christians view his moves as a case of "Taqiya" after deceiving them till the last minute that he was going to pick a Northern Christian as Vice.

Penguin2:
I’m not disputing that he got over 500k votes in Lagos too. But after Lagos, Kano is the next place he saw that much volume of votes.

Now, Obi is going to inherit Kwankwaso’s over 900k votes which is enough to cancel all the votes Tinubu will get in SE and SS.

So, you see, Peter Obi has made the most inroads into untraditional territories of the 3.

Let’s not even talk about Atiku that has been confined to Northeast and Northwest.

That is the mistake you are making. Obi will not inherit that 900k votes. It is a fact that many kwankwasiyya dislike Obi. We have seen several news of them rejecting and decamping because of Obi. I believe you saw the banner of them campaigning without obi pix meaning obi is Haram. If obi is to win Kano, it will be very narrow

[quote author=AMINDA post=140802910]Why did PDP structure not make Atiku win Delta? Okowa was an incumbent PDP governor and vice presidential candidate. It will be very naive to think the PDP "structure" will automatically be transferred to Tinubu in terms of support just because the governors made an unpopular defection, having been falsely assured that there will be no opposition? Why do you think the governors are mad at Wike and silently at Tinubu? Their re-election chances have become harder in the APC. Tinubu didn't win Rivers. We all know what happened. Not all the governors will be willing to shed their people's blood to deliver Tinubu. Okowa didn't do so despite being a vice presidential candidate.

This happened in Warri, Delta yesterday. Tinubu is highly unpopular across the Southsouth and the Southeast and his much talked about in-road in the middlebelt may be overrated.

Youths in Warri protest after they were allegedly asked to wear branded Tinubu shirt pic.twitter.com/QV9DB01urg

— YabaLeftOnline (@yabaleftonline) October 1, 2026

like Benin, calabar, uyo and all urban areas of the south are obidients dominated. Obi won there 2023 so it is expected. Most of the PDP structures especially the wike controlled are now with APC.
Okowa didn't win because he underestimated Obi popularity but he delivered 25%. You can't deliver everywhere. Not every governor can deliver their states. Like you said, not all governors can stake their neck but those that will stake will be enough.
Tinubu doesn't need to be popular to win or get votes. Atiku is non existent in SS and SE.

Akpakomiza2:
Warri like Benin, calabar, uyo and all urban areas of the south are obidients dominated. Obi won there 2023 so it is expected. Most of the PDP structures especially the wike controlled are now with APC.
Okowa didn't win because he underestimated Obi popularity but he delivered 25%. You can't deliver everywhere. Not every governor can deliver their states. Like you said, not all governors can stake their neck but those that will stake will be enough.
Tinubu doesn't need to be popular to win or get votes. Atiku is non existent in SS and SE.

The APC governors in Imo, Ebonyi, Cross Rivers also failed to deliver Tinubu in the East. Nothing much will change in 2027. Why then are you all fixated with governors? The kind of rigging that will enable Tinubu get votes in these states will have to be brazen and will involve blood shed. None of these governors will be willing to do that for Tinubu. For Wike, it was a matter of survival because he knew what was coming. Tinibu was popular in the North in 2023 but his popularity has tanked. Where then is his pathway to victory? If the Southsouth has not flipped, the middlebelt has also not flipped.

AMINDA:
The APC governors in Imo, Ebonyi, Cross Rivers also failed to deliver Tinubu in the East. Nothing much will change in 2027. Why then are you all fixated with governors? The kind of rigging that will enable Tinubu get votes in these states will have to be brazen and will involve blood shed. None of these governors will be willing to do that for Tinubu. For Wike, it was a matter of survival because he knew what was coming. Tinibu was popular in the North in 2023 but his popularity has tanked. Where then is his pathway to victory? If the Southsouth has not flipped, the middlebelt has also not flipped.

Where then is Atiku's pathway

Akpakomiza2:
That is the mistake you are making. Obi will not inherit that 900k votes. It is a fact that many kwankwasiyya dislike Obi. We have seen several news of them rejecting and decamping because of Obi. I believe you saw the banner of them campaigning without obi pix meaning obi is Haram. If obi is to win Kano, it will be very narrow

In Kano, Atiku will take a chunk out of Kwankwaso's numbers and an even greater chunk from Tinubu's 2023 numbers. Like I told you, Tinubu was very popular in the North in 2023 but has sabotaged himself in the North. It was a self-inflicted damage. For the gubernatorial, Abba Kabir will retain Kano because Kwankwaso clearly wants him to do so. Otherwise, he would have fielded Gawuna. Kwankwaso's stock has taken a huge dip in Kano but Tinubu is not the beneficiary of that. Atiku is.

AMINDA:
In Kano, Atiku will take a chunk out of Kwankwaso's numbers and an even greater chunk from Tinubu's 2023 numbers. Like I told you, Tinubu was very popular in the North in 2023 but has sabotaged himself in the North. It was a self-inflicted damage. For the gubernatorial, Abba Kabir will retain Kano because Kwankwaso clearly wants him to do so. Otherwise, he would have fielded Gawuna. Kwankwaso's stock has taken a huge dip in Kano but Tinubu is not the beneficiary of that. Atiku is.

Oga, this is insulting. Atiku has nothing in Kano and will never take anything from Kano. Atiku won't score above what he got last time. Better rest.