₦airaland Forum

Penguin2:
Now, let’s examine the strengths of the top 3 candidates and their realistic chances in each of these states.

Peter Obi
1) Lagos
2) Kano
3) Delta
4) Rivers
5) Benue

Atiku Abubakar
1) Kaduna
2) Katsina
3) Bauchi

Bola Tinubu
1) Ogun

Seyi Makinde
1) Oyo

The projections above, as put forward by the person I attached his post here, I believe, is informed by 2023 data and current reality and atmosphere on ground; ceteris paribus.

Penguin2:
Earlier today, while speaking to the press, the INEC chairman, Joash Amupitan, announced the top 10 states with the highest number of registered voters at the conclusion of CVR exercise. The chairman announced the states to include:
1) Lagos
2) Kano
3) Kaduna
4) Katsina
5) Rivers
6) Oyo
7) Delta
8} Benue
9) Ogun
10) Bauchi.

What the data above suggests is that any candidate who is serious about winning the next election must pay serious attention to these states.

Now, let’s examine the strengths of the top 3 candidates and their realistic chances in each of these states.

Peter Obi
1) Lagos
2) Kano
3) Delta
4) Rivers
5) Benue

Atiku Abubakar
1) Kaduna
2) Katsina
3) Bauchi

Bola Tinubu
1) Ogun

Seyi Makinde
1) Oyo

The projections above, as put forward by the person I attached his post here, I believe, is informed by 2023 data and current reality and atmosphere on ground; ceteris paribus.

What could change?

The only thing I see changing here is Tinubu succeeding to win Lagos and retaining Benue. But in both cases Peter Obi will come close second.

But in states where Obi is sure of winning like Kano, Rivers and Delta, Tinubu will not come close second.

Meanwhile, I don’t see any candidate other than Atiku flipping Kaduna, Katsina and Bauchi.

And lastly. even if Makinde doesn’t win any other state, only a political neophyte who likes to lie to himself will doubt that Makinde will win Oyo.

https://x.com/naughti_awol/status/2107459259474608151?s=46[/quote]If u use mouth allocate states finish. Come enter Asorock. Na dia we dy wait una.

kufre2010:
Is only those who doesn't know Nigerians that will believe this analysis. When State Governors start sharing money Nigerians will sell their votes

kufre2010:
Is only those who doesn't know Nigerians that will believe this analysis. When State Governors start sharing money Nigerians will sell their votes

AndroBlaze:
How can a reasonable human being say Peter Obi is "sure" of winning Kano and Benue

aswani:
Your projections totally defy logic as both Obidients and now Peter Obi have damaged their brand

APC
1) Lagos
2) Oyo
3) Delta
4) Rivers
5) Benue
6) Kaduna
7) Katsina
Bauchi
9) Ogun

ADC
1) Kano

softtorce:
Even qithout sharing miney nothing in the world n beyond can make Peter Obi have 20% of the total vote cast in Kano yet this deluded joker said he will win. How now. Obi will be 3rd in Kano even with Kwankwaso as his vice.

Penguin2:
I’m sure you started laughing at yourself after typing this. Lol

What do you have on ground that suggests to that Tinubu will win Rivers, Delta, Kaduna, Katsina, Bauchi and Oyo?

And isn’t it ironic that you lots believe so much that APC governors will deliver their states for Tinubu but somehow you don’t believe that Makinde will deliver Oyo to himself?

Mynd44:
You don't know how delusional elections make people until you find out Lawyers that went to Law school went in front of the the supreme court to argue that because someone didn't get 25% of votes in Abuja, he must not be sworn in as president.

Hedonisco:
The only state in this list that Tinubu can manage to win outright without INEC manipulation is Ogun State.

And I use 'INEC manipulation' intentionally rather than rigging because that is the only form of rigging that can work for the immensely hated and despised Tinubu. Vote buying, thuggery, voter intimidation and other forms of malpractice will simply not be enough to deliver victory to him.

It has to be direct manipulation of votes /writing of results right from inside INEC. So Nigerians need to know exactly where to direct their fury.

aswani:
Till today, Obidients are complaining about Wike giving Rivers to President Tinubu. I believe this scenario, both the governors handing states to President Tinubu and the subsequent Obidient complaining, will happen.

Makinde being APM doesn't mean Oyo State is, the state voted APC in 2023 despite him being in PDP.

You yourself must have laughed out loud projecting Lagos state for Peter Obi. Nothing wrong with optimism but that has trickled over into pure folly.

Peter Obi, as NDC is not winning any state outside Aligbo, even Kano that I generously gave his party is touch and go

aswani:
Your projections totally defy logic as both Obidients and now Peter Obi have damaged their brand

APC
1) Lagos
2) Oyo
3) Delta
4) Rivers
5) Benue
6) Kaduna
7) Katsina
Bauchi
9) Ogun

ADC
1) Kano

DoTheNeedful:
@Penguin2


The chances of the top three candidates as stated here are overly optimistic for Obi.

That said, it seems that many of analysts on social media have failed to read between the lines of the 2023 election results. There has been so much emphasis on who wins a state as if we are practicing America's electoral college system. Winning a state is not the ultimate goal. Tinubu lost Lagos in 2023, but his highest votes of any state was what he got in Lagos. Lagos contributed more to his victory than Ekiti or Rivers where he won.

One thing I observed in the last election is the possibility of a candidate winning 7-9 states and still ending up winning the election. The fact that Tinubu will finish first or second in almost every state gives him an edge in the coming election. Any analytical mind would get my drift.

Anyway, we are just 99 days to the election. The moment of truth is coming fast to everyone, regardless of who we support. We will all learn together.

softtorce:
Even qithout sharing miney nothing in the world n beyond can make Peter Obi have 20% of the total vote cast in Kano yet this deluded joker said he will win. How now. Obi will be 3rd in Kano even with Kwankwaso as his vice.

Mynd44:
You don't know how delusional elections make people until you find out Lawyers that went to Law school went in front of the the supreme court to argue that because someone didn't get 25% of votes in Abuja, he must not be sworn in as president.

aswani:
Till today, Obidients are complaining about Wike giving Rivers to President Tinubu. I believe this scenario, both the governors handing states to President Tinubu and the subsequent Obidient complaining, will happen.

Makinde being APM doesn't mean Oyo State is, the state voted APC in 2023 despite him being in PDP.

You yourself must have laughed out loud projecting Lagos state for Peter Obi. Nothing wrong with optimism but that has trickled over into pure folly.

Peter Obi, as NDC is not winning any state outside Aligbo, even Kano that I generously gave his party is touch and go

Moroccoguy:
Lagos election as already been won, most igbo people will be in there village during the election most of them wouldn't be available to vote in lagos, what plays out after last election as shown yoruba the true color of igbos, church wouldn't play a vital role this time around because religion sentiment has failed.

Penguin2:
Was it a constitutional provision or not?