₦airaland Forum

Aliko Dangote said his refinery has generated “a bit over $5.5 billion” in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) through the third quarter (Q3) of 2026.

He also said it will most likely beat a full-year 2026 EBITDA projection of about $7.2 billion. These are the first figures to emerge for the third quarter, which the company has not yet published.

“I think we have done very well and we will do even better on the fourth quarter results,” Dangote told investors on Monday at the final roadshow for the refinery’s initial public offering, held in Port Harcourt, monitored by MoneyCentral. He addressed the event virtually.

“The share price at N525 is an extremely good price.”

First-half EBITDA was $2.60 billion, according to the IPO Prospectus. That implies third-quarter EBITDA of about $2.9 billion, more than the entire first half, MoneyCentral calculations show.

Hitting $7.2 billion would require only about $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

The nine-month figure already matches analysts’ full-year forecasts. CardinalStone expects 2026 EBITDA of $5.6 billion, and Chapel Hill Denham expects $5.7 billion. MoneyCentral estimates nine-month net profit at about $4.1 billion, above CardinalStone’s $3.8 billion full-year profit forecast.

Record fuel margins support the numbers. Diesel and jet fuel crack spreads nearly tripled from a year earlier in the third quarter EIA data shows. The refinery ran a record 736,470 barrels a day in August.

At the offer price, Dangote’s $7.2 billion target values the refinery at about 6.8 times EBITDA, on MoneyCentral calculations, down from about 9.4 times on first-half numbers.

The offer has been extended to October 27, on the need to give prospective buyers across Africa more time to access the share sale, and Dangote said subscriptions were “more than three or four times” the amount sought.

The figures provided by Dangote are unaudited comments made while marketing the share sale.

The implied third-quarter margin of about $54 a barrel is well above the prospectus guidance of $24.20 for 2026. Margins could also narrow quickly if the Iran war and the disruption to Russian fuel supply ease.

https://moneycentral.com.ng/markets/article/dangote-says-refinerys-ebitda-tops-5-5-billion-signals-record-third-quarter/I'm

Make baba do give away na.
The things with Nigeria ehn, we no dey respond to classroom economics. If prices like, make e fly, demand no dey drop.

This man is really enjoying Bola government.

Bola really made Nigeria too easy for him to milk.

mactoni91:
This man is really enjoying Bola government.

Bola really made Nigeria too easy for him to milk.

Oga why you no build when he was building? Were you importing instead or making fake?

Image123:
Make baba do give away na.
The things with Nigeria ehn, we no dey respond to classroom economics. If prices like, make e fly, demand no dey drop.

Go nd hustle 4 ur own money.

Nothing free in Freetown

mactoni91:
This man is really enjoying Bola government.

Bola really made Nigeria too easy for him to milk.

Who knack u hammer 4 head

Just look at him. I said this severally that Dangote just benefits from the system and enjoys stiffling the system under the cover of helping us.

Its only President Yar"Adua that understood him at kept where he belonged. Yar"Adua never liked his very capitalist and dangerous business models. Unfortunately he died prematurely in office. God bless his soul.

Even the lack of interest in developing the railway in the country especially for haulage is being stiffled by the likes of Dangote because of the massive fleet of trailers he and other hawks have invested in.

Same monopoly and "cabalism" that he engineered in the cement industry, he is replicating in the petroleum refining/downstream sector.

mactoni91:
This man is really enjoying Bola government.

Bola really made Nigeria too easy for him to milk.

I think Obasanjo, Yaradua, Jonathan and Buhari spent close $5.4billion and ₦11.5trillion to give us high methane petrol with long queues and no fuel on Christmas days, while still importing petrol.

So please give kudos when due

https://dailytrust.com/nigeria-spent-4-15bn-n11-35trn-on-refineries-before-2021-pengassan/

Dangote IPO getting more clients

NwokoloOwa:
Just look at him. I said this severally that Dangote just benefits from the system and enjoys stiffling the system under the cover of helping us.

Its only President Yar"Adua that understood him at kept where he belonged. Yar"Adua never liked his very capitalist and dangerous business models. Unfortunately he died prematurely in office. God bless his soul.

Even the lack of interest in developing the railway in the country especially for haulage is being stiffled by the likes of Dangote because of the massive fleet of trailers he and other hawks have invested in.

Same monopoly and "cabalism" that he engineered in the cement industry, he is replicating in the petroleum refining/downstream sector.

Forget this victim talk, abi na nupeng fight🤷‍♂️

Starhearts:
Go nd hustle 4 ur own money.

Nothing free in Freetown

Freetown no dey 9ja. Baba must do give away.

Massive earnings at the back breaking of fellow Nigerians, He astronomically hiked the cost of petrol using the Iran War as a ploy. The shylock kept tracking up the price of petrol and diesel with every tick up the price of crude but never do the opposite when the price even slide down giving ridiculous excuses while Nigerians are in agony. Now he is telling us about record earnings to milk everyone of their savings in the name of IPO knowing fully well in a shortwhile crude price will fall and the bubble will burst. A heartless greedy capitalist

Liar. This guy wants to cash out and leave iron condemn for Nigerians

This man is taking advantage of tinubu harsh policy.

NwokoloOwa:
Just look at him. I said this severally that Dangote just benefits from the system and enjoys stiffling the system under the cover of helping us.

Its only President Yar"Adua that understood him at kept where he belonged. Yar"Adua never liked his very capitalist and dangerous business models. Unfortunately he died prematurely in office. God bless his soul.

Even the lack of interest in developing the railway in the country especially for haulage is being stiffled by the likes of Dangote because of the massive fleet of trailers he and other hawks have invested in.

Same monopoly and "cabalism" that he engineered in the cement industry, he is replicating in the petroleum refining/downstream sector.

Why not build your own business and apply the absolute best idea 😟

NwokoloOwa:
Just look at him. I said this severally that Dangote just benefits from the system and enjoys stiffling the system under the cover of helping us.

Its only President Yar"Adua that understood him at kept where he belonged. Yar"Adua never liked his very capitalist and dangerous business models. Unfortunately he died prematurely in office. God bless his soul.

Even the lack of interest in developing the railway in the country especially for haulage is being stiffled by the likes of Dangote because of the massive fleet of trailers he and other hawks have invested in.

Same monopoly and "cabalism" that he engineered in the cement industry, he is replicating in the petroleum refining/downstream sector.

Did anybody stop your father from building his own refinery and enjoy government too?

Lets hope the Refinery can keep the momentum when the Iran war with the U.S. cools down and crude oil prices drop.

That means OUR Company is doing well na
Okay alhaji, but you have to work harder o, so that OUR COMPANY can continue to grow.

NwokoloOwa:
Just look at him. I said this severally that Dangote just benefits from the system and enjoys stiffling the system under the cover of helping us.

Its only President Yar"Adua that understood him at kept where he belonged. Yar"Adua never liked his very capitalist and dangerous business models. Unfortunately he died prematurely in office. God bless his soul.

Even the lack of interest in developing the railway in the country especially for haulage is being stiffled by the likes of Dangote because of the massive fleet of trailers he and other hawks have invested in.

Same monopoly and "cabalism" that he engineered in the cement industry, he is replicating in the petroleum refining/downstream sector.

some of you ehhh.....how do you know yar adua Don't like him

At expense of Nigerians

dam2000:
This man is taking advantage of tinubu harsh policy.

If you get an opportunity, if you like don't leverage on it.

Goan read The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli and thank me later.

Were it not for the foolishness of the government, individuals could not be wealthier than the entire nation.

Ahmeduana:
At expense of Nigerians

For your mind you think all the earning was only from Nigeria

Ferdinandu:
Massive earnings at the back breaking of fellow Nigerians, He astronomically hiked the cost of petrol using the Iran War as a ploy. The shylock kept tracking up the price of petrol and diesel with every tick up the price of crude but never do the opposite when the price even slide down giving ridiculous excuses while Nigerians are in agony. Now he is telling us about record earnings to milk everyone of their savings in the name of IPO knowing fully well in a shortwhile crude price will fall and the bubble will burst. A heartless greedy capitalist

I keep telling those rushing to buy dangote petrol shares, especially those buying very little shares just to be called a share holder, they are gonna waste their money.

Baba was announcing profits just to entice gullible investors to invest their hard earned money 💰.

You won't hear any of such announcements once the IPO is over.

malali:
The EBITDA is just one parameter, net profit is whats matters and free cash flow ?

You can extrapolate the nine-month net profit from the Half Year results already published in the IPO Prospectus. MoneyCentral estimates nine-month net profit at about $4.1 billion, according to the report.

hakeemhakeem:
For mind you think all the earning was only from Nigeria

Dangote exports about 40% - 60% of his refinery's produce with Jet Fuel and Diesel being the major exports.

What is all this grammar?

Image123:
Oga why you no build when he was building? Were you importing instead or making fake?

Thank you for this statement. I don't understand why people are hating. DR is a for profit company. NNPC PLC has 4 moribund refineries so there is opportunity for them to enjoy what DR is enjoying make dem step up.

The implied third-quarter margin of about $54 a barrel is well above the prospectus guidance of $24.20 for 2026. Margins could also narrow quickly if the Iran war and the disruption to Russian fuel supply ease.

Interestingly, the US midterms is on November 3. That could change a lot of dynamics for the energy market. Russia and Iran are watching as hawks. Even the Saudis and Houthis are also looking at the tide.

The offer has been extended to October 27, on the need to give prospective buyers across Africa more time to access the share sale, and Dangote said subscriptions were “more than three or four times” the amount sought.

2 weeks extension despite being over-subscribed?? Hmm!

Looking forward to how geopolitics will impact the Q4 result.

Ahmeduana:
At expense of Nigerians

Abi you don forget how things where before DR came into existence?? You don forget the long queues, adulterated black market petrol that was being sold? Or the grossly inflated price of petrol when artificial scarcity of petrol is created for a few individuals to cash out over a short period of time regardless of how much crude oil prices was on the international market!!

Make una thank DR for affording Nigeria seamless supply of petrol.