₦airaland Forum

President Tinubu, Atiku and Obi's strength in each region

President Tinubu will win SW
Win SS or come Second
Come Second in South East
Win NC or come second
Win NW or come Second
Come Second in North East

Atiku will win NE
Win or come second in NW
Win or come second in NC
Come 3rd in South West, South East and South South

Peter Obi will win SE
Win or come second in SS
Come Second in SW
Come third in all the Northern regions

You can do the rest of the calculation on who should win based on the analysis above

softtorce:
2023 that Buhari did naira swap n Apc had less governors ba.

You will get sense by fire by force. Remember all the military Buhari deployed against Tinubu will now be in support of Tinubu with increased salary.

You will eventually cry wails of agony.

So you are banking on rigging? Lol.

Atiku is neither winning nor coming second in any Southern state. Makinde will mop up the dissenting votes against the APC, Atiku won't get 10% in Oyo

softtorce:
Sensible people are the ones allowed to comment abeg. Go sit down for gutter for now or at least till it is time for dead brains to comment.

You go cry tire. Una wailing never start

seunmsg:
Atiku will not win or come second in NC. He will come second or third. In fact, I think he will come third.

I'm projecting Tinubu to win the SS outrightly. He will win Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Bayelsa. Delta and Edo will be evenly divided. I don't see a path to victory in the region for Peter Obi this time around.

I don't see PO losing Bayelsea.
He might lose or win CRS marginally
In all the SS will be heavily divided like the NC in 2023.

Aiel123:
I don't see PO losing Bayelsea.
He might lose or win CRS marginally
In all the SS will be heavily divided like the NC in 2023.

How is he going to win bayelsa? That's his weakest zone in SS apart from akwa ibom. He won CRS narrowly the last time. He will lose narrowly. He will win delta but with lower margins

Aiel123:
I don't see PO losing Bayelsea.
He might lose or win CRS marginally
In all the SS will be heavily divided like the NC in 2023.

Did he win Bayelsa in 2023?

Akpakomiza2:
How is he going to win bayelsa? That's his weakest zone in SS apart from akwa ibom. He won CRS narrowly the last time. He will lose narrowly. He will win delta but with lower margins

He lost Bayelsa marginally in 2023. Factor in Dickson as national leader and senatorial candidate for the equation changes.
My analysis is hinged on Dickson delivering with his own strength.

seunmsg:
Did he win Bayelsa in 2023?

Tinubu didn't win either.
Obi came second. Now with Dickson as national leader and also a senatorial candidate, he provide the structure for Obi to ride on.
Yes Tinubu gained with Diri defection but I feel that Obi populist appeal plus NDC national leader institutional structure is set to flip the script

Aiel123:
Tinubu didn't win either.
Obi came second. Now with Dickson as national leader and also a senatorial candidate, he provide the structure for Obi to ride on.
Yes Tinubu gained with Diri defection but I feel that Obi populist appeal plus NDC national leader institutional structure is set to flip the script

Obi got 49k while Tinubu got 42k. The difference between them was 7k. Atiku scored 68k because he had the support of the governor and the entire PDP structure. Today, the governor and the PDP structure have been merged with APC in a rainbow coalition alliance. All the major Ijaw warlords are now publicly working for Tinubu's reelection. Plus the fact that money plays a lot of role in getting electoral victory in the south south. It is going to be an outright victory for APC in the state.

historic:
Yeah the sensible and non gullible Nigerians are in their millions to vote out the disaster in government.

Thank goodness you mentioned sensible Nigerians

Please which sensible Nigerians will vote for either Obi or Atiku considering how they have been unable to present what they are going to do differently.

Again, remember the sensible before responding

Aiel123:
He lost Bayelsa marginally in 2023. Factor in Dickson as national leader and senatorial candidate for the equation changes.
My analysis is hinged on Dickson delivering with his own strength.

In 2019 Dickson was overrun in bayelsa as governor. Outside his Sagbama, he isn't that strong. His strength lies in incumbency. Bayelsa is a state that usually goes to the incumbent because of their political structure and geographic terrain. Other states like that are Taraba, kwara, Benue, rivers, Akwa ibom, ogun, Yobe, Borno etc

seunmsg:
I'm projecting Tinubu to win the SS outrightly. He will win Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Bayelsa. Delta and Edo will be evenly divided. I don't see a path to victory in the region for Peter Obi this time around.

Which parties will Edo be evenly devided with? There is no ADC or NDC stronghold anywhere in the state, the governor is from the only previous PDP stronghold.

Look the the figures that Akpata got in the gubernatorial elections for LP, not one opposition party will better them as poor as they were.

Please stop confusing Ẹdo and Delta because of Bendel, there are no political similarities at all.

Akpakomiza2:
In 2019 Dickson was overrun in bayelsa as governor. Outside his Sagbama, he isn't that strong. His strength lies in incumbency. Bayelsa is a state that usually goes to the incumbent because of their political structure and geographic terrain. Other states like that are Taraba, kwara, Benue, rivers, Akwa ibom, ogun, Yobe, Borno etc

Well time will tell.

seunmsg:
Obi got 49k while Tinubu got 42k. The difference between them was 7k. Atiku scored 68k because he had the support of the governor and the entire PDP structure. Today, the governor and the PDP structure have been merged with APC in a rainbow coalition alliance. All the major Ijaw warlords are now publicly working for Tinubu's reelection. Plus the fact that money plays a lot of role in getting electoral victory in the south south. It is going to be an outright victory for APC in the state.

Time will reveal alot.
Besides not all the PDP structure in the state are in the rainbow coalition. A serving member of the HOR leads the Turaki faction. January would decide but I do see your point.

helinues:
Thank goodness you mentioned sensible Nigerians

Please which sensible Nigerians will vote for either Obi or Atiku considering how they have been unable to present what they are going to do differently.

Again, remember the sensible before responding

Every sane Nigeria knows that Obi is way miles ahead better than the failure presently occupying aso rock. His policies has plunged the people into abject penury. In fact every other candidate will perform better than that DL we have as the C in C right now.

historic:
Every sane Nigeria knows that Obi is way miles ahead better than the failure presently occupying aso rock. His policies has plunged the people into abject penury. In fact every other candidate will perform better than that DL we have as the C in C right now.

You can't be talking about Obi and still add sane supporters ..Water and oil don't mix buddy

helinues:
You can't be talking about Obi and still add sane supporters ..Water and oil don't mix buddy

Oga you can only gaslight yourself... Every one knows that you BAT supporters are the ones lacking number six upstairs sotay dem even do cartoon for una. Even your cherished member Bwala dun already talk am. So you can't change the narrative. Go outside and find out people's opinion about Batists. E go shock you wetin you go discover about where you belong.

historic:
Oga you can only gaslight yourself... Every one knows that you BAT supporters are the ones lacking number six upstairs sotay dem even do cartoon for una. Even your cherished member Bwala dun already talk am. So you can't change the narrative. Go outside and find out people's opinion about Batists. E go shock you wetin you go discover about where you belong.

Could you define gaslight?

You mean any sane Nigerian will support Peter Obi who can't even define the duty of the president, someone who doesn't know the basic terms about governance, someone that his party NDC are yet to release their campaign team for the election that's less than 100 days.

The same Peter Obi who can't even reference to his own achievements as a governor to score political points

We are definitely using different English curriculum across the Nigeria regions as you guys meaning to words are just the opposite

helinues:
Could you define gaslight?

You mean any sane Nigerian will support Peter Obi who can't even define the duty of the president, someone who doesn't know the basic terms about governance, someone that his party NDC are yet to release their campaign team for the election that's less than 100 days.

The same Peter Obi who can't even reference to his own achievements as a governor to score political points

We are definitely using different English curriculum across the Nigeria regions as you guys meaning to words are just the opposite

Oga all these your shalaye can't change people's already decided mind of voting the failure out of governance come January next year. Can you confidently go alone into the markets across Lagos to campaign for BAT? You guess is as good as mine.

As I said earlier any other candidate will be wholly accepted as long as it isn't BAT who occupies that seat from next year. He has been tested and he came out a failure so someone else should take up the mantle ship of leading the country. As simple as that!

historic:
Oga all these your shalaye can't change people's already decided mind of voting the failure out of governance come January next year. Can you confidently go alone into the markets across Lagos to campaign for BAT? You guess is as good as mine.

As I said earlier any other candidate will be wholly accepted as long as it isn't BAT who occupies that seat from next year. He has been tested and he came out a failure so someone else should take up the mantle ship of leading the country. As simple as that!

Now tell me, how would convince a sane Nigerian to vote for someone who doesn't know his left from right. Someone who is not in charge of his political party nor have the leadership ability to control his supporters

Remember, you are unable to dispute what I wrote about Peter Obi. How do you expect any sane person to support such candidate

helinues:
Now tell me, how would convince a sane Nigerian to vote for someone who doesn't know his left from right. Someone who is not in charge of his political party nor have the leadership ability to control his supporters

Remember, you are unable to dispute what I wrote about Peter Obi. How do you expect any sane person to support such candidate

Oga why are you so fixated on PO? I said any other person but BAT and you are still talking about PO. It seems you guys know something we don't know that you always seem to twist or connect all your comments or submissions to end up with the name of PO even when he isn't in the picture. I thought he is a nobody to your jagaban but yet you can't stay a day without looking for topics having his name. Unless as they say that you lots are being paid for it then I can understand that you have to do your job to get your pay, but the question is: can it better your life for good? Ponder over this question. Remember "Any other Candidate apart from the failure BAT"!

helinues:
Do your own analysis about the presidential candidates strength in each region

Show us how the competition is between Atiku and Obi

Btw, is this thread about winning states? Winning 2 states in the entire Nigeria, you must be a comedian

Lol. My thoughts precisely. Anyone who says Tinubu, an incumbent, will win only 2 States is not worth responding to since such an insane statement means they may even be typing from an Asylum.

historic:
Oga why are you so fixated on PO? I said any other person but BAT and you are still talking about PO. It seems you guys know something we don't know that you always seem to twist or connect all your comments or submissions to end up with the name of PO even when he isn't in the picture. I thought he is a nobody to your jagaban but yet you can't stay a day without looking for topics having his name. Unless as they say that you lots are being paid for it then I can understand that you have to do your job to get your pay, but the question is: can it better your life for good? Ponder over this question. Remember "Any other Candidate apart from the failure BAT"!

You can't dictate to me. You brought up Obi winning and i listed facts that will make him lose woefully

You have been unable to dispute a quarter of what I have listed about Peter Obi yet you have the guts to be lumping sane Nigerians to vote for such character like Peter Obi

May God have mercy on your soul

WizardOfNG:
Lol. My thoughts precisely. Anyone who says Tinubu, an incumbent, will win only 2 States is not worth responding to since such an insane statement means they may even be typing from an Asylum.

As in, may be those people think others reason like them.

Take a look at the guy above me who has been unable to dispute all what I wrote about Obi yet he keeps on shouting sane Nigerians will support Obi..As how now.

How can they be sane and still support someone who doesn't know his left from right

helinues:
President Tinubu, Atiku and Obi's strength in each region

President Tinubu will win SW
Win SS or come Second
Come Second in South East
Win NC or come second
Win NW or come Second
Come Second in North East

Atiku will win NE
Win or come second in NW
Win or come second in NC
Come 3rd in South West, South East and South South

Peter Obi will win SE
Win or come second in SS
Come Second in SW
Come third in all the Northern regions

You can do the rest of the calculation on who should win based on the analysis above

Pretty much accurate in my opinion. Give or take. I will add that Obi will have a much poorer showing in the SW next year than he did in 2023 so I cannot say he will do better than Atiku there.

WizardOfNG:
Pretty much accurate in my opinion. Give or take. I will add that Obi will have a much poorer showing in the SW next year than he did in 2023 so I cannot say he will do better than Atiku there.

The issue is ADC are not on ground at all in South West

helinues:
You can't dictate to me. You brought up Obi winning and i listed facts that will make him lose woefully

You have been unable to dispute a quarter of what I have listed about Peter Obi yet you have the guts to be lumping sane Nigerians to vote for such character like Peter Obi

May God have mercy on your soul

A Tinubu supporter is asking God to have mercy on ones soul... wonder they say shall never end. Well even the Devil sometimes appear as an Angel of light.

I can't stop from 😂. This one off me. A lost soul asking God to show mercy on another while he literally worships the Devil. Mr Helinues you are the biggest jester on NL. I give it to you. And remember Any other person but Tinubu. Don't care what you say about PO but what I know is that BAT na OTP. Rigging go fail una, Nigerians go show una film 2027!

historic:
A Tinubu supporter is asking God to have mercy on ones soul... wonder they say shall never end. Well even the Devil sometimes appear as an Angel of light.

I can't stop from 😂. This one off me. A lost soul asking God to show mercy on another while he literally worships the Devil. Mr Helinues you are the biggest jester on NL. I give it to you. And remember Any other person but Tinubu. Don't care what you say about PO but what I know is that BAT na OTP. Rigging go fail una, Nigerians go show una film 2027!

May God bless Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
4+4=8

helinues:
As in, may be those people think others reason like them.

Take a look at the guy above me who has been unable to dispute all what I wrote about Obi yet he keeps on shouting sane Nigerians will support Obi..As how now.

How can they be sane and still support someone who doesn't know his left from right

Lol. Obi, since 2023, has unravelled as an empty barrel no different to other worthless politicians that ruined Nigeria.

Whereas he was seen as change before 2023 since most Nigerians are ignorant and never read to note he has a distinctly below average stint as Governor far behind the likes of Kwankwaso and Asiwaju.

Because of that pervasive ignorance in Nigeria, especially amongst the youths hence leading to Buhari labelling them "lazy", most believed Obi to be 'change' and a departure from the old boys (Tinubu, Atiku etal) they think ruined Nigeria.


With Obi it was always a case of anonymity and lack of visibility making him appear a saint compared to the likes of Tinubu and Atiku who are political titans always present in Nigerian top-level politics.

Nigerians are simple and unsophisticated politically. Their basic rule is "being around too long, get rid of him and try someone else". They don't look at achievements and quantifiable records of leadership efficacy.

This was what blighted Tinubu in 2023, despite being one of the most spectacularly transformational political leader in Nigeria since 1999, and conversely favoured Obi who is probably worst Governor of Anambra since 1999.

Today, 3 years on from 2023, Obi has virtually no SW Obidients in his camp and negligible numbers from the NC and non-SE region.

This is because Nigerians, over three years since 2023, have seen how he lies, flip-flops, procrastinates, hypocritically and bigotedly attacks a pin dropping on the ground outside the SE yet remains silent over atrocities recorded in his region , etc, etc.

At political Party level. They have noted how he failed to unite and take charge of Labour Party, through crisis resolution and authoritative leadership, to the extent the likes of Kenneth Okonkwo left him and publicly declared him unfit to lead Nigeria.

You go from ADC to NDC in a matter of weeks because you cannot enter a primary contest against Atiku same as he fled PDP in 2022 against the same Atiku.

Obi is finished in the eyes of any Nigerian who thinks critically and wants progress for our nation. He will remain popular with his people as we know how they vote but he will be shocked by the scale of rejection he will register outside the next year.

duro4chang:
May God bless Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
4+4=8

You mean to say "The Devil" right cos God cannot bless evil.