₦airaland Forum

Mogidi:
Only phools believe there own propaganda. Buhari just want a decent showing at the polls, he recently admitted its an uphill task to unseat a sitting president.

This analysis was written by Simon Kolawole, reputed ex This day editor and owner of The Cable newspaper. Kolawole is noted for being a strong supporter of Gen Buhari and one of his closest media allies. That said, he remains a very unbiased and respected columnist. Here is his take on next year's race
I have been listening to comments and reading analyses on the 2015 presidential election with rapt attention. There is nothing unanimous in the predictions and projections, but I am sensing a trend in the analyses: that if the All Progressives Congress (APC) fields Maj. General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) against President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), then it will be a piece of cake for the former head of state. A Buhari supporter, in a recent newspaper interview, said Buhari's votes in the North plus Bola Tinubu's votes in the south-west equal automatic victory for APC.


Slow down a bit, guys. I have no intention of raining on anyone's parade or pouring cold water on exciting calculations, but analyses do not have to be this simplistic. If the history and politics of elections in Nigeria are to be of any use in these postulations, the safest bet will be to say there are still many rivers to cross. My intention today is to draw attention to several facts and factors that will be at play during the elections. Many things are still taking shape; opportunities and threats still exist for the PDP and the APC. It is too early in the day to arrive at definite conclusions.


Let us look into some of the assumptions one by one. The first is that Buhari will clear the votes in the core North and Tinubu will deliver the South-west votes in one basket. That Buhari will win in the core North has never been in dispute ─ he has done so consistently since 2003. It is unthinkable that he will not win there. However, I'm not sure Tinubu can clear the South-west the same way Buhari could do in the core North. It appears many commentators have not been monitoring recent developments in the South-west. To start with, two of the six states ─ Ekiti and Ondo ─ are now in the hands of PDP. That is important to note.


Meanwhile, the APC is getting weaker in Oyo state. The three APC senators have left the party; the death of Alhaji Alao Arisekola has dealt some body blow on Governor Abiola Ajimobi; former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala (PDP) is on a rebound; former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, who controls large portions of Ibadan, is complicating things for APC. In Ogun, Governor Ibikunle Amosun is under fire from within and without. Chief Olusegun Osoba, in whose camp the Ogun APC senators and house members are, is playing hard ball with Amosun. The PDP, meanwhile, is bringing back its break-up groups and rebuilding in the state.


In simple words, Oyo and Ogun have become very shaky and it is a bit tenuous to assume the South-west will vote en bloc for APC in 2015. I may well be wrong, but I am seeing a split of the zone's 13.5 million votes. The South-west, in my opinion, is neither here nor there yet. No assumptions should be made and no conclusions should be reached yet, certainly not in October 2014. Of course, the APC is not sleeping and is also hoping to gain from the fall-outs from PDP's possible slips in the coming weeks. But South-west does not look like one-way traffic as at today.


Meanwhile, there is also this assumption that Buhari ─ or APC ─ does not need the South-east and South-south (SESS). That is ridiculous. First, it is not good for Buhari's CV that he has never won in any Southern state since he launched his presidential bid in 2003. Not one state. And it is also not good political strategy to downplay SESS. There are 11 states in these two geo-political zones. The APC calculation may be that the South-south would rather have a "son of the soil" as president. The South-east, it seems, is fully joined in matrimony to South-south under Jonathan's presidency. But does that mean giving up without a fight?


Let us now reverse the case. Jonathan, despite knowing that the core North will be a difficult hunting ground for him, is putting up a decent fight. He is working to secure as many votes as possible in Buhari's territory. The president has gathered many strong politicians to his side. Now let us do some basic calculations. SESS has 17 million votes combined. Buhari's home zone, North-west, has 18.7 million registered voters. If Jonathan bites off as much as 30-40% of the votes in the North-west (which he did in 2011) while Buhari does poorly in SESS (like before), Jonathan would clearly gain more than Buhari in the candidates' home zones.


Jonathan's chances, in the meantime, are also bright among the Northern minorities. It could be minority solidarity, I can't say. The North-central has 11 million names on the voter register. Jonathan's reconciliation with former military, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, and the governor of Niger State, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, could help him in Niger state. Kogi, Plateau, Nasarawa and Benue would ordinarily back Jonathan. But Kwara, which supported him in 2011, is now uncertain, with the godfather, Bukola Saraki, relocating to APC. Buhari will fancy his chances in Kwara, that is if Saraki can ward off his PDP foes, who look very formidable. In truth, Kwara now looks more like a tight corner for both parties.


The North-east, boasting of 11 million registered voters, could be a mixed bag. Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno have always gone to Buhari, while Taraba and Adamawa seem to have a thing for Jonathan. But something significant has changed in Borno: Ali Modu Sheriff is now in PDP. Since 1999, Borno has always faced any direction Sheriff pointed to, and his defection must be considered a loss to APC. I was not surprised at APC's reaction when Sheriff left: Borno's 2.5 million votes are the nation's fifth largest after Lagos (5.4m), Kano (4.7m), Kaduna (3.7m) and Katsina (2.9m). Being Buhari's familiar hunting ground, however, Borno could still be game for him.


Before I shut down my computer, I would like to maintain that unlike many observers and analysts, I foresee a very competitive election. And, I think, four months to the polls, we should avoid jumping into certain conclusions. One of the major failings of the opposition is that they underrated Jonathan's ability to respond to the momentum they gained last year. Before they could settle down to savour the heavyweight defections from PDP to APC, the Jonathan camp had launched a counter offensive, in addition to benefitting from crises arising from the consolidation process of APC.


Therefore, dear readers, with what I have seen in Nigeria in the last few months, and what I understand about the dynamics of our electoral politics, I would conclude that the day is still young. For the two leading parties, there are still many hurdles to clear. Let the game begin!
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/jonathan-and-the-2015-calculations/192278

clevvermind:
buhari himself knows that he will fail. i only pity his supporters.

ndcide:
He obviously didn't ask me. Coz I'm in Lagos.

Zoharariel:
Wait a minute! Which of the North do you speak of? The same North that Jonathan, Edwin Clark & Ayo Oritsejafor have been bombing via their foot soldiers [Alimodu Sherrif, Azubuike Ihejerika, Mohammed Ndume & Co] ? Or do you speak of a different north entirely that is situated in your mama's v-agina?

You must really think the Northerners are as dumb as your fedora-hat wearing bastard. Y be in a hurry when February 14, 2015 is just 8weeks away - Nonsense!

ZKOSOSO:
Buhari is not a new guy to failure.
He is used to failure.
So am sure he is setting a new record for the North.
He is simply a born loser at finals!

GEJ till Buhari goes to school!!

clevvermind:
Honestly, buhari can't win next year election. Let us not deceive ourselves . I think he will fail again. I don't know where buhari is going to get his votes from. Jonathan will definitely get almost all the votes during next year election.
The SE, SS and part of the SW and the North will vote for Jonathan and that will leave buhari to failure. Buhari can't win next year election. Mark my word. Jonathan will definitely dominates come next year.

Purity1:
Sometimes it beats my imagination why people can't talk politely. Do you not know the value and position of a MOTHER?

Zoharariel:
Wait a minute! Which of the North do you speak of? The same North that Jonathan, Edwin Clark & Ayo Oritsejafor have been bombing via their foot soldiers [Alimodu Sherrif, Azubuike Ihejerika, Mohammed Ndume & Co] ? Or do you speak of a different north entirely that is situated in your mama's v-agina?

You must really think the Northerners are as dumb as your fedora-hat wearing bastard. Y be in a hurry when February 14, 2015 is just 8weeks away - Nonsense!

tomakint:
Are you new to Nairaland? You better ignore that zombie because going overboard in a simple debate like this is the watchword of many of the APC goons here....an orphan here named eggheaders (of blessed memory) from the same group is even worst. Endure or ignore them

tomakint:
Thanks mogidi for that piece, that was clearly my sentiment!

Mogidi:
Check out the article I posted, written by a diehard Buhari supporter.

clevvermind:
ask buhari the founder of boko haram. he thinks he can impose sharia on Nigerians. pls u people are the ones killing yourselves. stop blaming others and focus on ur violent and blood sucking leaders and people. and stop behaving as if u did not have a mother. i know that nothing good can come out of apc.

Mogidi:
Check out the article I posted, written by a diehard Buhari supporter.

clevvermind:
i have read the article and it speaks volume. apc hope is very bleak.

motherlode:
you must be a joker and you include north in that list sorry for op

Purity1:
My dear stop thinking and wake up. Buhari can never contend GEJ. Forget the voices of nairalanders supporting him, come feb. 14 he will lose as the pathetic loser he is.

clevvermind:
i just feel for people that will cry their eyes out next year.

agabusta:
Stop deceiving yourself. Buhari's support is not limited only to Nairaland. Go to facebook and see how the masses are canvassing votes for him passionately. Even people that were hitherto somewhat apolitical has been using him as BBM display pictures and sending broadcasts canvassing votes for him.
.
Now leaving social media, go to the streets (referring to the SW now as i'm resident there) and you'll get inundated with the Buhari phenomenon.

A lot of People are facing hardtimes and are just tired of this directionless and corrupt govt of Dr Goodluck Jonathan.

Zoharariel:
So, in this age of Digital Technology, you're still buying that ruse that GMB intends imposing Sharia on Nigerians when even our maximum dictator [Gen. Sani Abacha] in his height of power couldn't dare it?

In your unilateral wet dreams, it make sense to you that the Northerners would be killing, abducting & raping their daughters just to frustrate GEJ's government?

We've never been like this until you, your type and your dumb "President" started "presiding" over the affairs of Nigeria - A$$hole!

clevvermind:
is there anything those power hungry people will not do? u think buhari is a saint? he will even do worse than Jonathan. sharia is still in his blood. buhari and his gang are the brains behind the killings, raping, bombing over the north just to frustrate the government of Jonathan but believe me, jonathan will march on victoriously. and u his blind supporter will continue your in your failures.

Zoharariel:
Now, I am convinced that your cranium is filled with pus.

If Knowledge is Power, your I.Q in watts won't even power a torch light bulb!

motherlode:
you must be a joker and you include north in that list sorry for op

maestroferddi:
I am tired of telling these Buhari's/APC supporters to get a handle on their premature excitement.

There is no way Buhari can match the PDP in two month's time. In Nigeria, time hardly runs against the state. The way the presidency is structured in this country is such that the powers resident in the office is prodigious.

While people are venting their frustrations on the social media asking for change that is not happening next year, the political grandmasters in PDP know when to make their moves. At the nick of time, the horse-trading would begin and all the speculations flying all of over the place would count for nothing.

Most key political figures in the north know that Jonathan is not leaving the villa next year. They are playing their cards very well so as to be well-positioned in 2019 - just four short years away. The rest are wasting their time and resources swimming against the tide.

Obasanjo is yet to formally join the opposition despite repeatedly lambasting the ruling party. The old fox is merely using an unwary opposition as a pawn to salvage some lost political relevance. He has been in the saddle before and therefore can see the futility of Buhari's endeavour.

Alcatraz001:
Even if Buhari loses next year,I surely know that some ibos will be killed and am very happy about that as these ibo pple hate Nigeria to the point of wanting us to suffer for 4 more years under Jonathan.

What have the Present generation of Yorubas andd Hausas done to the ibos to warrant this much hate and bile? Is it our fault Ojukwu took you thru a senseless war and 3 million souls were wasted?
Are ibos not seeing how bad things have gone in this country for the past 4 years? Christmas is next week and everywhere is so dry.Jonathan and his ibo ran government have looted all the money in the coffers of the Country.

I am rest assured of one thing,as long as this country remains one,the ibos would never ascend the throne as they have shown us how much ill will they wish this country.We are watching.

I trust the northerners to displace millions of ibos next year at any sign of rigging or manipulation of the election results.

Buhari/Osinbajo till 2019!!!

Purity1:
I also pray that when the millions of igbos will be displaced that it should get to you, then you will ve a rethink.