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2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome - Politics (13) - Nairaland

Nairaland ForumNairaland GeneralPolitics2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome (55512 Views)

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Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Adminisher: 6:00pm On Dec 25, 2014
kenrish2:
APC fans are just after their party, even if their party brings a dictator they will surport, they will tell u vote for change. but I don't think GMB will bring about as any change
Ask yourself why Jonathan is still running ?. Why did he not look for an easterner with pedigree and capacity. Is Peter Obi not smarter than him?..is Rochas not more charismatic? . Would this not have been a checkmating move against the ever possible Buhari run?. One important thing about people who are not capable of greatness, they find it difficult to make sacrifices for anything. Muscling himself into the presidency with his very clear baggage was greedy and is just to destroy his party
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Adminisher: 6:12pm On Dec 25, 2014
Johnpaul88:
Fortunately the people's General doesn't need foolish igbo votes. In fact any Igbo that votes for GEJ deserves to have a big stone tied around his rubbish neck and thrown into the deep ocean. Look around in all the federal roads in the SE and all of them in miserable conditions. Yet you'll rather we vote for Jonathan again. That'll be the height of foolishness to do that after all these disregard by his administration.
I think differently, Igbos should not vote GEJ strictly because an Ibo man should be on the seat within 8 years. This is not possible at all with another GEJ term in office. As far as FG projects are concerned, the people of the east are masochistic that way. They voted Obj against Falae and he rewarded them with zero, GEJ is also gave them zero plus a promise of a bridge but lots of appointment. Trust the Easterners brain to disconnect when naira starts flowing into private pockets.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Adminisher: 6:18pm On Dec 25, 2014
fx45:
My friend no Igbo man or woman will vote for Buhari... He can't even get more than 10,000 votes in the whole of Igboland. That's the reality on ground. Rochas being in APC doesn't mean anything. FYI, he might not get returned as governor of Imo state from the look of things.

It is a taboo for any Igbo to vote for Buhari.... And that's the plain truth
Why then are you people so sure of Jonathan winning votes in the North and South West.?.What weakness in the rule permits one taboo but not the other. This is why I am worried at the mental state of most commentators.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 6:22pm On Dec 25, 2014
fx45:
Crap! Foolish Igbo votes or no foolish Igbo votes, Ur Fulani Bokoharam slavemaster will still lose again... A few more youth corpers(including Ur elder brother serving in the north) will be slaughtered as usual and life will continue...

#BuhariIsUnelectable
Was it Buhari that slaughtered them? undecided undecided

Onye a maghi ebe mmiri siri maba ya agaghi ama ebe o ga akwusi.
This is the problem of Igbos. Smh! grin
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 6:33pm On Dec 25, 2014
Adminisher:
Why then are you people so sure of Jonathan winning votes in the North and South West.?.What weakness in the rule permits one taboo but not the other. This is why I am worried at the mental state of most commentators.
Don't know why he's so certain that Jonathan will pick up a single vote in the North West or East. grin angry
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Adminisher: 6:59pm On Dec 25, 2014
divine2043:
APC fans are getting carried away and it is incredible. Many of the South Western APC fans do not know what is happening up North because many have not stepped foot in the far North to know what politics is like there. Buhari will win many votes in the North but some key top shots in the North do not want him. They'll get their guys to vote PDP.

The North does bloc voting and emirs and other tribal leaders call the shots. Some tribal leaders up north will encourage their guys to vote Goodluck simply because of what they stand to gain from Goodluck.

Goodluck will perform better in the South West than a lot of people think.

Buhari cannot win Goodluck sorry. I pray for peace and not violence because APC are already showing signs of being bad losers. They thrive on propaganda and rumour mongering.
I am still in a daze reading this. You must be under 25 because of the ridiculousness of what you posted. The North does bloc voting is the only truth you have posted. To now say they will vote Jonathan because their Emirs will tell them so is very very childish. No Emit will tell anyone to vote against Buhari and we will soon see all these manifest during campaigns. Emits have been known to have been attacked by youths for even lesser offences than supporting Jonathan. Please try another route to justify Jonathan winning anything in the north and not this thing you posted.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 7:29pm On Dec 25, 2014
No; you are the childish one here:APC fan

Adminisher:
I am still in a daze reading this. You must be under 25 because of the ridiculousness of what you posted. The North does bloc voting is the only truth you have posted. To now say they will vote Jonathan because their Emirs will tell them so is very very childish. No Emit will tell anyone to vote against Buhari and we will soon see all these manifest during campaigns. Emits have been known to have been attacked by youths for even lesser offences than supporting Jonathan. Please try another route to justify Jonathan winning anything in the north and not this thing you posted.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by kenrish2(m): 9:09pm On Dec 25, 2014
Adminisher:
Ask yourself why Jonathan is still running ?. Why did he not look for an easterner with pedigree and capacity. Is Peeter Obi not smarter than him?..is Rochas not more charismatic? . Would this not have been a checkmating move against the ever possible Buhari run?. One important thing about people who are not capable of greatness, they find it difficult to make sacrifices for anything. Muscling himself into the presidency with his very clear baggage was greedy and is just to destroy his party
u are right, but PDP will not take DAT risk because it is easier for a president to win second term because he will use all the power at his disposal
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by agabusta: 10:13pm On Dec 25, 2014
chukwudi44:
You muslims in Edo are bloody minorities. You would not be able to secure more than 20% for your weeping General
How come your warped mind thinks it's only muslims that will vote Buhari. You better wake up and smell the coffee. His support cuts across religions and ethnicities.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by ISpiksDaTroof: 12:55am On Dec 26, 2014
chukwudi44:
Tinubu has little or no influence over sw elections as the events in ondo and ekiti has clearly shown.I voted in Lagos during the last election and don't remember receiving instructions from Tinubu on whom to vote for
Why didn't you vote in the East? What stops you from residing in your homeland if you hate others so much? What are you scared of? Why are your posts filled to the brim with hate and disrespect of others and their lands? In this thread alone you've insulted Yorubas, Hausas, Edos, Northerners, Muslims, Westerners....when does it end? Why do you think you can be hateful of your hosts then turn around and demand they abide by your wishes? Who do you really think you are?
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by seanet02: 1:08am On Dec 26, 2014
You really get time replying that dofo. I have decided to stop replying yhebos on nairaland.
They are so disconnected from reality.
ISpiksDaTroof:
Why didn't you vote in the East? What stops you from residing in your homeland if you hate others so much? What are you scared of? Why are your posts filled to the brim with hate and disrespect of others and their lands? In this thread alone you've insulted Yorubas, Hausas, Edos, Northerners, Muslims, Westerners....when does it end? Why do you think you can be hateful of your hosts then turn around and demand they abide by your wishes? Who do you really think you are?
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by seanet02: 1:09am On Dec 26, 2014
ISpiksDaTroof:
Why didn't you vote in the East? What stops you from residing in your homeland if you hate others so much? What are you scared of? Why are your posts filled to the brim with hate and disrespect of others and their lands? In this thread alone you've insulted Yorubas, Hausas, Edos, Northerners, Muslims, Westerners....when does it end? Why do you think you can be hateful of your hosts then turn around and demand they abide by your wishes? Who do you really think you are?
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by agabusta: 3:30am On Dec 26, 2014
chukwudi44:
Devaluation of naira has to do with the falling oil price and GEJ,please get your facts right.

Did obasanjo campaign for Fayose before he scored 16-0 during the last ekiti elections? abeg make pesin hear word jare
Why are you people quick to always respond that devaluation of the naira has to do with falling oil price?? Is this the first time oil pricr is dropping?? Pls. Do your research well. Even the price the oil dropped to now is still higher than what we have when Jona assumed the presidency after Yaradua.

The devaluation of the naira is due to poor economic mangt strategy of this current administration. Simple.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by PassingShot(op):
The fact of the matter remains that without massive rigging in the SW and NC and even in the SE, I can't see GEJ winning the next election.

I have done a revision of the prediction to even give Jonathan more chance at possibly winning fairly by alloting 90% (95% in Bayelsa) of the votes to him in the SS and SE except Edo, Rivers and Imo; and also giving him Lagos with 60% and Ekiti with 60%.

While I have done that, I have restricted Buhari's winning percentage to between 70 and 80% in his stronghold regions of NW and NE (85% in Katsina where he hails from). But despite all of these, Jonathan still comes short of winning.

I will create another thread on this revised prediction on Saturday or Sunday for your inputs.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Scholes007(m): 10:14pm On Dec 27, 2014
SE & SS are over 90%for GEJ but SW am not sure maybe both GMB & GEJ have to share the lot in some of the states... but predicting GMB will get over 25% in SE & SS (including rivers) is a total flaw. But some that say they don't need stupid Igbo vote will be surprised that the same Igbo vote might make their arch enemy win
My problems are
1GMB fans are aggressive why? is it that they cannot argue without insulting...
2 Most nairaland member do not argue objectively when it comes to politics in Nigeria especially when GEJ is mentioned
3 Federal roads in south east & south south are not as bad as most guys term them example owerri Onitsha express road, Enugu Port Harcourt express way (from awgu to Enugu, Umuahia to okigwe is almost completed...) Uyo Port Harcourt Express way and many more prove me wrong if you which
4 Most people don't even know a place before they start arguing( alway they said)
5 Most GMB fans lyk insulting their president why? is it that they are ill-mannered or that they don't sense decorum?
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Jarus(m): 10:04pm On Dec 29, 2014
rufdyamond:
Time has changed and obviously there re now new strategies for both parties....so never say never...buhari won it wile GEJ taught he had strong holds there so what stops the table from turning aroundhuh...and do you think GEJ has nt noticed his shortcomings on that angle...this man is not a fool brother so he would avoid a second trashin whre he can with the power of incumbency
Bros, how market?

https://www.nairaland.com/2067157/exclusive-why-governor-lamido-abadoned?
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 6:16am On Dec 30, 2014
Jarus:
Bros, how market?

https://www.nairaland.com/2067157/exclusive-why-governor-lamido-abadoned?
Relax nah no dey rush...all this nah political jege, ..less dan 100day we go knw
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 3:15pm On Dec 30, 2014
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Jarus(m): 3:46pm On Dec 30, 2014
rufdyamond:
Bros, I say make I hail....

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/lamido-accuses-buhari-of-divisive-campaigns/197882/
1-1

February 14, 2015, we go know scores.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by ceejay80s(m): 10:46am On Jan 19, 2015
olabode89:
F O O L
EMPTY
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Job5050: 5:45am On Mar 10, 2015
PassingShot:
This exercise is an attempt to picture how the next presidential election will be won and lost.

It is based on the following factors and assumptions:

1. That there will be 80% voters turnout across the country

2. The two candidates popularity and general acceptability

3. Each party's spread and their strength in each state

4. New developments in the political terrain of a state irrespective of the party that rules the state


If you have a different view or opinion, please let's hear it.
http://www.ngvoicemagazine.com/jamb-cbt-2015-slip-e-printing-postponeded/



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Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 7:12am On Mar 10, 2015
As long as its an online poll, buhari will win.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by bjdon: 9:08am On Mar 10, 2015
Elections are not won by the number of people who show up at rallies. They are not even won by the number of people who say 'I will vote for this candidate or that candidate'

I've been involved with Nigerian elections since the infamous verdict '83 in 1983 and I can tell you all without any fear of contradiction that the number 1 factor to winning an election in Nigeria is THE PARTY STRUCTURE ON GROUND.

Outside of the big cities, in all those small towns and villages where the majority of Nigerian actually reside who is goes round to gather the people, marshal them to the polling centers, in some cases instruct them exactly how to vote? Answer the local party workers. It is this ground game that in the end will determine the winner of the election, that's why for me I am giving it to GEJ(No bias) I think people will be very surprised by the results from the NE especially Adamawa. Remember the Army is in control of security in that area, and we all know the Army and PDP are bedfellows. Also I am yet to see strong evidence of a substantial ACP ground game in Adamawa and Taraba, in fact the PDP have won all recent elections in Adamawa despite that being the state of Atiku.

I would amend the OP's prediction to as follows:
Adamawa: GEJ
Taraba:GEJ
Ekiti:GEJ
Ondo:GEJ
Edo:GMB
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by mandarin: 12:30pm On Mar 10, 2015
PassingShot:
I know Kaduna is a close call but I still think Jonathan will edge it based on that fact you mentioned and the fact of the Southern Kaduna. We shall see. Just bookmark this thread for after-election analysis.
That's not true.i was at Kaduna before election was postponed. I think its only igbo groups that will root for Jonathan from what was on ground.The truth is, many who consider religion as a factor in the coming election will be shocked. The so called southern kaduna will by what I saw, vote Buhari. In kaduna, there are more Yoruba and minorities than Igbo.
if anything on ground is to go by in Kaduna, El-Rufai will win by landslide while Buhari will win over 85% of votes cast.
Plateau state is one Buhari cannot bank on and may be Benue but his performance can be up to 50% in both states.May be those supporting GEJ don't read the frustration on faces of Nigerians.
Lagos will see a good show for both candidates but GMB will take at least 60% of votes cast. Those believing GEJ will win in Ekiti and Ondo need a rethink, they will be found in error but I believe GEJ will score above 90% in all southeast states and south south except Edo where Buhari can give a good showing
I tip Buhari to win out rightly in 17 of the Northern states and FCT, 5 southwest states and Jonathan in 10 states of Southsouth and southeast. Either of them can win any of the following: Ondo, Plateau, Benue and Edo some people may be interested in putting Ekiti in these swing states but I cannot. What can include the state here is nit Fayose but the ethnocentrism of the people and their stubborn determination which seem to be working against PDP at the moment.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by PassingShot(op): 12:44pm On Mar 10, 2015
mandarin:
That's not true.i was at Kaduna before election was postponed. I think its only igbo groups that will root for Jonathan from what was on ground.The truth is, many who consider religion as a factor in the coming election will be shocked. The so called southern kaduna will by what I saw, vote Buhari. In kaduna, there are more Yoruba and minorities than Igbo.
if anything on ground is to go by in Kaduna, El-Rufai will win by landslide while Buhari will win over 85% of votes cast.
Plateau state is one Buhari cannot bank on and may be Benue but his performance can be up to 50% in both states.May be those supporting GEJ don't read the frustration on faces of Nigerians.
Lagos will see a good show for both candidates but GMB will take at least 60% of votes cast. Those believing GEJ will win in Ekiti and Ondo need a rethink, they will be found in error but I believe GEJ will score above 90% in all southeast states and south south except Edo where Buhari can give a good showing
I tip Buhari to win out rightly in 17 of the Northern states and FCT, 5 southwest states and Jonathan in 10 states of Southsouth and southeast. Either of them can win any of the following: Ondo, Plateau, Benue and Edo some people may be interested in putting Ekiti in these swing states but I cannot. What can include the state here is nit Fayose but the ethnocentrism of the people and their stubborn determination which seem to be working against PDP at the moment.
Your contribution is spot-on. I have since given KD to Buhari as I later realized he won the state in 2011 as well by 52%.

I plan to do another one which will be based on PVC collection in each state once we approach the election. Maybe a week to the election.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Jarus(m): 11:00am On Mar 30, 2015
rufdyamond:
What fuckin dyanamics re u talkin about in a country like Nigeria...well you obviously realized there is a factor but neva put a percentage to that factor...this Nigeria...90days frm now I will send u a PM...
It's 90 days now. See what GEJ got in Jigawa (less than 15%)

https://www.nairaland.com/2226404/apc-wins-jigawa-elections

Give me reason why you should not be made to do frog-jump for polluting this thread with ignorance despite my attempt to educate you?

And still waiting for your PM.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by PassingShot(op): 11:04am On Oct 09, 2018
tomakint:
The funniest of them all; 'Buhari wins in 22 States.......' I swear Passingshot is high...... grin grin
grin grin grin grin

I stumbled on this and I can't stop laughing grin grin grin
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by PassingShot(op): 11:06am On Oct 09, 2018
Buhari cannot even get up to 25% in Edo let alone winning the state. Buhari cannot win nassarawa and taraba state either.Buhari would not get up to 10% in any state of the se.Fayose is in complete control of ekitistate. Besides APC has repeatedly insulted ekiti voters after their last defeat, expect payback.

Mark my words, none of the candidates will secure up to 60% of the votes in Lagos and kadunna states. The cosmopolitan and religious make up of this states would make that impossible
This guy deactivated his moniker after the election. grin grin grin
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by PassingShot(op): 11:08am On Oct 09, 2018
Bros the circumstances have changed, go the streets and interview the market women and okada riders. PDP does not need rigging to win Lagos.

Ikorodu is in complete lockdown, nothing for Apc there at all
PaChukwudi, how time flies!

grin grin grin grin
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by PassingShot(op): 11:09am On Oct 09, 2018
pazienza:
This is a typical case of building castles on the air.

Create a victory scenario in your head, when you know you can't win, then start shouting foul play, when you eventually lose. Seem to me like APC has already accepted defeat and are now looking for consolation.
Are you still on NL?

Same fate awaits PDP in 2019.
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