₦airaland Forum

THERE is no doubt that Nigeria is going through one of the toughest periods in its democratic history, writes Uju Okoye, a graduate student in Political Science from McMaster University, Ontario, Canada, specialising in comparative politics with a regional focus on Africa.

The Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) decision in February 2015 to postpone the federal elections for six weeks, due to security concerns in the north-eastern states affected by the militant Islamist group Boko Haram, shocked and angered the Nigerian electorate and many international observers.

INEC’s decision increased existing tensions in what has become Nigeria’s most contested election since 1999, when former military ruler General Olusegun Obasanjo, backed by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), beat his rival Chief Olu Falae.

While many voters branded the postponement as a dirty trick by President Goodluck Jonathan - who seeks to unfairly win the election - closer examination shows that delaying the election might have handed the win to the opposition party All Progressives Congress (APC), led by General Muhammadu Buhari.

Nigeria is enjoying its longest period of civil rule since its independence from the British in the 1960s and has become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, recently surpassing South Africa as the continent’s largest economy.

However, corruption and insurgent groups have severely affected the lives of Nigerians, raising doubts over the ruling party’s governing capacities.

The PDP has won every election since 1999, thanks to an informal arrangement under which the presidency alternates between a candidate from the predominantly Christian south and one from the Muslim-majority north.

However, in the run-up to the 2015 election, the PDP splintered and the APC has emerged as the main opposition force.

On March 28, 2015, President Jonathan will face General Buhari, whom he had defeated in the 2011 poll. After that election, a dissatisfied General Buhari claimed the PDP had rigged the result.

Sectarian violence followed, which led to 800 people losing their lives and a further 65,000 being displaced. A crimes against humanity case on General Buhari’s name has been submitted to the International Criminal Court.

The INEC claims its decision to postpone the 2015 election came on the advice of the military, which said it could not guarantee the safety of the electoral commission in key areas where Boko Haram is active.

Both General Buhari and President Jonathan have narrowly escaped assassination attempts during the campaign trail, giving weight to the argument that insurgents are not simply against one candidate but against the very principle of a free and democratic Nigeria.

Many voters say this delay is a PDP strategy to win time and sabotage an opposition that had started topping opinion polls. However, there is more evidence to suggest that the INEC’s decision hurts President Jonathan’s popularity considerably more than General Buhari’s.

Goodluck Jonathan is Nigeria’s first president not to have links to the military, but his tenure has been criticised for its lacklustre response to Boko Haram and he has been at the centre of multiple corruption scandals.

There is no doubt that General Buhari will attract a significant protest vote. While Nigerian politics are often played according to religious lines, the retired major general has capitalised on his military experience and austere lifestyle to attract voters outside his traditional northern support base.

Thanks to some deft political manoeuvres, he has emerged as the wronged party because of the INEC’s decision, which has dealt a major – perhaps mortal – blow to the President’s camp.

But General Buhari has a checkered past. In 1983, he overthrew the feckless civilian administration of President Shehu Shagari and justified the coup by employing a strong nationalist narrative, painting himself as the strong man who would re-establish order and governance.

Despite the oil boom in the 1980s, Nigeria’s economy struggled, on the back of high inflation which made basic goods virtually unaffordable for the average person.

General Buhari drastically reduced social expenditure, scrapped subsidies on social services and opened health and education to private contractors. Under a nationalist agenda of rejecting outside help (including the IMF), he regulated the imports of foreign goods and tried to bring in line the country’s balance of payments. His heavy-handed reforms backfired and the country’s standard of living decreased dramatically.

In the face of decreasing public support, he was deposed in the 1985 military coup and jailed for 40 months.

How Nigeria will look after the election on March 28, 2015, is anybody’s guess. While it is unclear now if the recently formed transnational military coalition will succeed in defeating Boko Haram in time for the presidential poll, the terrorist group has suffered a string of setbacks lately, losing control of several towns. However, thanks to a renewed military offensive in the north, Nigeria’s security situation is on the upswing.

Many voters are likely put aside General Buhari’s past and rely on his promise to revamp Nigeria’s security. It remains to be seen if he can actually deliver on those promises.

I stand with GEJ no matter what.

GEJ we love, GEJ we trust! GEJ till 2019!!!

GMB all the way

So, what has d title got to do with the article itself? Vote for whoever you so wish for; it's your civic right. As for me: "GMB lo ni ibo mi"


Modified:
So op changed d original title? It's in them. No sincerity at all in PDP...bunch of liars, deceiving d gullible(permit me to use d word), d rigger of elections. Your 16 yrs of deceptive rulership WILL be over by 29 May(by His grace).

its not about APC versus Jonathan, its about Nigerians Vs Jonathan


So am Voting For NIGERIA


sai Buhari

stop foolin whil we vote GMB.....av decided

jboixxx:
So, what has d title got to do with the article itself? Vote for whoever you so wish for; it's your civic right. As for me: "GMB lo ni ibo mi"


Modified:
So op changed d original title? It's in them. No sincerity at all in PDP...bunch of liars, deceiving d gullible(permit me to use d word), d rigger of elections. Your 16 yrs of deceptive rulership WILL be over by 29 May(by His grace).

A Tandriod like u stole dis Article and changed the Topic. He deserves a ban, and u also deserve a ban for being a sympathiser

chamboy:
A Tandriod like u stole dis Article and changed the Topic. He deserves a ban, and u also deserve a ban for being a sympathiser

I'm sure you quoted a wrong moniker! Sorry. But if you insist, that means there are lots of TANoid's think-alike in APC. No apologies.

jboixxx:
I'm sure you quoted a wrong moniker! Sorry. But if you insist, that means there are lots of TANoid's think-alike in APC. No apologies.

APC does not have Robots as Supporters

Vote GEJ.
All the bad eggs that gave GEJ administration bad name are now in APC.

chamboy:
APC does not have Robots as Supporters

Then read my post again and make a reasonable comment!
This

A Tandriod like u stole dis Article and changed the Topic. He deserves a ban, and u also deserve a ban for being a sympathiser

doesn't add-up.

It's all about Nigeria vs GEJ, and as for me n my home,we ve decided to march4change.
Bccoz, it's pure madness when u managed to charge ur phone with ur nebo's gen and return to ur dark room to tweet PDP.

Goodluck Jonathan is Nigeria’s first president not to have links to the military,

....I didnt know Shagari was an Army General!